The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2012

[Eshnar]

100%. I thought it might get better today, no. It got worse. It seems it will be only four fighting for the Top-3...

Actually Eshnar & Kaz for the GP. And Syl vs. Vita for No. 3 and 1st loser spot.

Provisionals after Stage 15:
20,0 Kazistuta (36,5) SIX
19,5 Eshnar (39,5) EIGHT
18,5 Sylvester (39,5) SEVEN
--------------------------------------
18,5 Vitapen (36,0) SEVEN
17,0 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) EIGHT
16,5 jsem94 (39,5) EIGHT
16,0 Duartista (38,5) SIX
16,0 boomcie (37,5) SEVEN
16,0 Ferminal (37,0) EIGHT
16,0 Hartog (35,0) EIGHT
15,0 Froome19 (38,0) SEVEN
15,0 Mellow Velo (37,0) EIGHT
14,5 Tuarts (35,5) SEVEN
14,0 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) NINE
14,0 gerundium (37,0) EIGHT
12,0 roundabout (39,5) SEVEN

"outs" at 30+ mins

how did I get a point? GC I guess, but who?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You lost the spot of Valv-Piti, but gained two other ones right on the money: Capecchi & Roche. Well, that may won´t last...

 

[Sylvester]

I have Contador and Rodriguez in the first two spots with Contador winning on the Bola del Mundo.

Needless to explain what I'm hoping for

Yet I do have Froome in 4th and Roche in 10th, so I can't complain for now.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Could be 4 extra points for the win for you....

or, well no extras and a 4th. We´ll see. Still interesting on top, even tough it seems i am out of the race, unless spectacular things happen in my favour (starting w/a AC-Win tomorrow for example, while he´s not overtaking the Red).

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Now i am desperate. I need a 1980-Lake-Placid-Like miracle to have any chance to move inside the Top-3: Some 25 min breakaway win by either Machado or Quintana in the next few days.

Geez, Eshnar to a big big hit today. Ouch!

Provisionals after Stage 16:
19,5 Kazistuta (36,5) SIX
19,0 Sylvester (39,5) SEVEN
18,5 Vitapen (36,0) SEVEN
--------------------------------------
17,0 Eshnar (39,5) EIGHT
16,5 jsem94 (39,5) EIGHT
16,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) EIGHT
16,0 Hartog (35,0) EIGHT
15,5 Duartista (38,5) SIX
15,5 boomcie (37,5) SEVEN
15,5 Ferminal (37,0) EIGHT
15,0 Mellow Velo (37,0) EIGHT
14,5 Froome19 (38,0) SEVEN
14,0 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) NINE
14,0 Tuarts (35,5) SEVEN
13,5 gerundium (37,0) EIGHT
11,5 roundabout (39,5) EIGHT

"outs" 50+ mins

 

[Eshnar]

Well I knew it was gonna happen someday. T_T

 

[jsem94]

I think the top 3 is almost settled as it seems.. like the Vuelta top 3.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Hope dies last... there is still two MTF´s left. I count on a big break of "my" guys and three riders right on the spot. It´s not too much i ask for.

 

[Sylvester]

Vitapen has 6 points from the stages, 10,5 "guaranteed" GC points unless something really special happens, and might score extra points with Contador in 2nd (1), Gesink in 5th (1), Monfort in 12th (1), Roche in 13th (1), Henao in 19th (1). For the remaining stages Vitapen has Gesink / Degenkolb / Gilbert / Contador / Viviani. (good picks; 0 to 3,5 points, 2 likely)

Kazistuta now has 7,5 points and 10,5 guaranteed GC points. He can score extra points with a Contador win (1), Anton in 6th (1), Intxausti in 11th (1). For the remaining stages Kazistuta has Astarloza / Breschel / Koldo F. / Rodriguez / (Rojas). (0 to 1 point with J-Rod? Or Astarloza to shock the world?)

I have 6 points from stages and 9,5 guaranteed GC points. I can score extra points with Contador in first place (1), Rodriguez in 2nd (1), Froome in 4th (1), Gesink in 5th (1), Roche in 10th (1), Monfort in 16th (1). For the stages I'm left with Anton / Bennati / Degenkolb / Contador / Bennati. (0 to 2,5 points, I'd say, 1,5 likely)

It's hard to call, really. Vitapen and I are evenly matched (I maybe have the edge on GC, Vitapen's stage picks seem to be better) while Kazistuta has less to lose, but desperately needs Intxausti to come 11th and has some less likely stage picks. And I didn't consider all the other players. SUSPENSE

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Great summary. Wouldn´t it be bad for Kaz to lose his lead in the last few days after being the leader for somehow 3 weeks in a row?

Of what you say, i guess it´s between you and Vita for first....

 

[Kazistuta]

It comes with the terrain, and as I thought Contador would win the GC, I thought JRod would get the last mountain stage. Right now it looks like a "gift" for Berto, which means 0,5 points for me.

The last week hopefully will see a lot of breaks succeed and some less likely winners (although this Vuelta pretty much has been obvious names all along the way). Gotta root for Breschel and Koldo now, thought more sprinters would've left the race now.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Lets see... I root for Kaz now. Just b/c it would look pretty cool to have two winners from denmark in a row. Such a small country beats the whole cycnews forum.

 

[Eshnar]

I gained 2.5 point today
I'd say I'm the biggest winner.
But Kazistuta gained 2 so I guess he's still way above me

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

... and me, like at the TdF drop down heavily on the last few days. Thank you very much.

 

[Eshnar]

... and me, like at the TdF drop down heavily on the last few days. Thank you very much.

C'mon Foxxy, update the f*cking provisionals

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

... in progress

 

[Eshnar]

... in progress

Good. Thank you

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

The chance to make the T-3 is open again (outside of myself, of course ), thanks to the unexpected results of today.

The biggest winners were Tuarts (+5), and of course Eshnar who got back into the T-3 (even tough he was somehow declared out by me a few days ago ).

The biggest loser is me (-4). Thank you JRod.

Provisionals after Stage 17:

22,0 Kazistuta (36,5)
20,0 Eshnar (39,5) +2
19,5 Sylvester (39,5) -1
----------------------------------
19,0 jsem94 (39,5) +1
19,0 Vitapen (36,0) -2
18,5 Hartog (35,0) +1
18,0 Duartista (38,5) +1
18,0 boomcie (37,5) +1
17,5 Tuarts (35,5) +5
17,0 FoxxyBrown1111 (39,5) -4
17,0 Froome19 (38,0) +1
17,0 Ferminal (37,0) -2
16,5 Mellow Velo (37,0) -2
16,0 gerundium (37,0) +1
15,5 Dekker_Tifosi (40,0) -2
13,5 roundabout (39,5)

+/- = changes from stage 16

Picks for tomorrow of the T-3 contenders:

Eshnar Breschel
Sylvester Bennati
jsem94 Swift
Vitapen Degenkolb
Hartog Swift
Duartista Swift
boomcie --- (Rojas DNF)

Vitapen with the best chance to move back into T-3, while three hope for a Degenkolb fail and a Swift coming out party...

 

[Eshnar]

The chance to make the T-3 is open again (outside of myself, of course ), thanks to the unexpected results of today.

The biggest winners were Tuarts (+5), and of course Eshnar who got back into the T-3 (even tough he was somehow declared out by me a few days ago ).

well quite understandable considering how you kept saying for two weeks that the win was between me and Kaz
Now please start saying I will never make it

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

That was long ago. Since you was hit hard on stage 16. Anyway, Breschel is a tough pick for tomorrow. Guess you hope Degenkolb and/or Swift don´t score. Which is quite unlikely.

For the thrill of the game, i´ll root for Swift. Then we´d have a tight 7-men race...

Edit: I´ll declare Kaz as winner. Hope he don´t slaughter me. Since all my predictions go the other way.

 

[Eshnar]

That was long ago. Since you was hit hard on stage 16. Anyway, Breschel is a tough pick for tomorrow. Guess you hope Degenkolb and/or Swift don´t score. Which is quite unlikely.

I know I totally screwed the flat bunch sprints. Luckily I have Degenkolb for Sunday.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Degenkolb on sunday could be a clincher.

 

[boomcie]

boomcie --- (Rojas DNF)

Lol, nice one

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Welcome.

 

[Vitapen]

The only good thing is that JRod still gives me 1 extra point. Now I'll hope that Roche loses 1 place. And of course Swift-fail.

Edit: And Valverde, please, win the Vuelta!