The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2012

[Eshnar]

Geez Jakob, you did the mistake of looking at your CG.
Would you have followed eshnars and my advice, then there would be at least still hope for one more night.

There will be hope for more than one night... We're all on the same track. I'll be very surprised if tomorrow someone will get a consistent edge over the others.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Don´t think so. Not everybody has Poels, the whole Rabo-Mess (Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk), De Weert, the Garmin-Mess. Oh god, i better stop... It looks too ugly.

 

[jsem94]

I wonder who will walk out of this alive.

 

[Eshnar]

Don´t think so. Not everybody has Poels, the whole Rabo-Mess (Gesink, Mollema, Kruijswijk), De Weert, the Garmin-Mess. Oh god, i better stop... It looks too ugly.

Pretty much everyone had the whole Rabofailsquad I think...
And everyone lost a lot of people today, no matter who.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I wonder who will walk out of this alive.

We´ll see 1st signs of where it goes after tomorrow. I am eager to know, but very nervous. Eshnar gave me a little bit optimism...

Only Taramaae and TJVG are in the hunt for white (the other contenders might as well have given up on it). Luckily i have Taramaae, but the real good pick is TJVG (only one player in each division have him).

 

[Sylvester]

Too many mountains for Van Garderen, I'm afraid.

Then again, my top 20 doesn't look too good either.

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Today is a disaster for my top 20...

 

[Ferminal]

Maybe I'm not the worst, as I didn't have Kruijswijk or Poels.

Guys like Velits/Horner/Peraud are all still reasonable.

Think a lot of it will come down to order, as most of us have similar top20s. I'm very happy with my top6 still.

 

[Sylvester]

Yeah, actually:

Evans - OK
SSanchez - OK
VDB - OK
Gesink - it ain't over till the fat lady sings
Menchov - OK
Froome - lost some time, but top 20 seems very likely
Nibali - OK
Brajkovic - lost some time due to a crash, but it's not over yet
Rolland -
Monfort - in 10th place already
Danielson -
Valverde - lost some time
Vandevelde - most likely won't make the top 20, might still be top 30 though
Zubeldia - in 14th place already, invisible as ever
Leipheimer - OK
Kiserlovski - cf. Vandevelde
CASorensen - big question mark
Mollema - lost some time, but will be fine I guess
Peraud - OK
Wiggins - OK (still has to crack, though)

 

[Eshnar]

O God.... I just looked at the gc

 

[jsem94]

This day... wow.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Jesus, it looks bad...

Provisionals after Stage 7:

Europe; (Link https://docs.google.com/document/d/1CwPkwaBLj9nD22F9Urj0fEmC5LCAU0DAFq_70VhMETw/edit see also Post #1)
20,5 Dekker_Tifosi (17,5)
17,5 The Hitch (22)
17,5 Eshnar (20)
17,0 Froome19 (21)
17,0 jsem94 (20,5)
17,0 search (19,5)
16,5 Sylvester (22)*
16,5 Kazistuta (19)
16,0 Hartog (18)
15,5 FoxxyBrown1111 (23)
14,5 minessa (19,5)
13,5 AntonioRossi (18)
13,5 mortand (WC) (18)
13,0 al_pacino (17)
11,0 DominicDecoco (19,5)

World; (Link https://docs.google.com/document/d/1o7nJoS18UjIXP3zZUC1hE3lrmIyinFSeCzNehUebDl8/edit see also Post #1)
18,5 Mellow Velo (19)
18,5 Tuarts (18)
18,0 roundabout (21,5)
18,0 aarnold517 (20)
18,0 gerundium (19)
17,5 Vitapen (18)
17,0 Duartista (19,5)*
16,5 Timmy-loves-Rabo (22,5)*
16,5 barmaher (20,5)*
16,0 Ferminal (19,5)
15,5 Jakob747 (22)
15,5 Sasquatch (18)
14,5 boomcie (20,5)
14,5 18-Valve. (pithy) (19,5)
14,5 FF'Wilco (17,5)

Bold and Italic: Qualifiers
* Wild-Card

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

Lol, 20,5 where the 2nd has 17,5

In that case this terrible (for the dutch) tour must continue

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Today is a disaster for my top 20...

Then it´s more disaster for the rest of us. OK, it helps that you gain 4 points on correct placings (most have two), but even w/o them, i think you can relax now. Your nervousness was unfounded. Lucky you.

Lol, 20,5 where the 2nd has 17,5

In that case this terrible (for the dutch) tour must continue

 

[AntonioRossi]

wow that is bad

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

wow that is bad

I think it has a lot to do w/clinic issues. We have unreal CG´s since the Vuelta (i don´t count the TdF 2011, since crashes happen). It makes it even more hard to come up with good predictions for this years vuelta. Anyway, good luck to recover well, and at least get into the wild card race for the last Vuelta-Spot.

 

[Eshnar]

Let's face it, we suck

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Of course we suck...

But i remember when i did my picks. I thought about Wiggins to put him No. 1. But then i refused to pick an ex trackie, who finished in the 100+ placings at GT´s, as TdF-Champ. It just sounded absurd, never happened in the "normal" 100+ year long history of GT-Past.
I said to myself. Who cares that might cost me one point, i still make the cut, but i keep my own moral standards. Well, i didn´t knew it costs me 2 points since those who pick him first have Evans 2nd. The worst outcome for me...

Same with Froome. Should i pick a guy who comes from nowhere (before Vuelta 2011) in my Top-10. I really didn´t want to. Even to pick him in my T-20 was accompanied by stomachache.

Anyway, congrats to those who completely left heart and nationalism out. Those who have picked the "whole" Sky-Squad in the Top-20 will prevail.

Well, at least i didn´t fall into my own national trap, by picking german riders (like Klöden, TMartin). At least that one might work out.

 

[Ferminal]

For those wondering who the completely random top20 would be, it's Gallopin. Will TT better than those around him.

 

[Eshnar]

30. RUS VORGANOV Eduard 139 KATUSHA TEAM 38h 25' 47'' + 07' 51''
31. DEN SORENSEN Chris Anker 178 TEAM SAXO BANK-TINKOFF BANK 38h 27' 40'' + 09' 44''
32. ESP MARTINEZ Egoi 35 EUSKALTEL - EUSKADI 38h 28' 01'' + 10' 05''
33. FRA DI GREGORIO Rémy 82 COFIDIS LE CREDIT EN LIGNE 38h 29' 03'' + 11' 07''
34. ITA MARCATO Marco 125 VACANSOLEIL-DCM 38h 29' 43'' + 11' 47''

It seems the top 30 is almost closed
Whoever is already out will stay out most likely.
So we can gain points only moving from top 30 to top 20. And of course we can always pick the right place (approx. chance: 1% )
I gained half a point today, btw

 

[Dekker_Tifosi]

I think I'm doing fairly well despite the giant Rabo/Garmin/Movistar fail

Froome could be the key

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

I look pretty good now, with one great recovery (like Ant.Rossi & Ferminal). BUT, it´s only for one day. I heavily depend on correct placings (Menchov 4th and Rolland 20th), and carry 6 "dead" riders with absolutely no chance to move inside the Top-30.

Standings after Stage 8:

Europe;
19,5 Dekker_Tifosi (17,5)
18,5 Eshnar (20)
18,0 FoxxyBrown1111 (23)
17,5 Froome19 (21)
17,5 search (19,5)
17,0 AntonioRossi (18)
16,5 The Hitch (22)*
16,5 jsem94 (20,5)
16,5 Kazistuta (19)
16,0 Sylvester (22)
15,5 Hartog (18)
15,5 mortand (WC) (18)
13,5 minessa (19,5)
13,5 al_pacino (17)
12,5 DominicDecoco (19,5)

World;
20,5 Tuarts (18)
19,0 roundabout (21,5)
19,0 Duartista (19,5)
19,0 gerundium (19)
18,5 aarnold517 (20)
18,5 Vitapen (18)
18,0 Ferminal (19,5)*
18,0 Mellow Velo (19)*
17,0 Timmy-loves-Rabo (22,5)*
16,5 barmaher (20,5)
15,5 18-Valve. (pithy) (19,5)
15,0 Jakob747 (22)
15,0 boomcie (20,5)
15,0 Sasquatch (18)
15,0 FF'Wilco (17,5)

 

[Eshnar]

18,5 Eshnar (20)

So I gained a whole point. Not surprised to have miscalculated something. Good to see it
Remarkably I have the correct place of Wiggo and Cuddle only. Good performance for now.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Remarkably I have the correct place of Wiggo and Cuddle only. Good performance for now.

Bad for us who have it the other way around. All you Wiggo-1/Evans-2 guys have a unnatural p) 2 point advantage.

Hope that changes. At least, if Wiggins finishes 1st, under all circumstance Evans must not finish 2nd.

 

[Eshnar]

Bad for us who have it the other way around. All you Wiggo-1/Evans-2 guys have a unnatural p) 2 point advantage.

Hope that changes. At least, if Wiggins finishes 1st, under all circumstance Evans must not finish 2nd.

I don't mind actually I really don't want Wiggins to win, but I do want to win this game.
In these kind of games I always try to pick the result I don't want to happen. By doing so, I ensure the result will be satisfying either way