The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2014/15 "TdF Monster Edition"

[Flamin]

Re:

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

 

[Jspear]

Re: Re:

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

If it comes down to a Modolo Viviani showdown be scared - Modolo has a train right now!

 

[Pantani_lives]

I had bad luck in the first half of the Giro, but good luck in the second half. I seem to be out of the danger zone, even if Hesjedal doesn't stay 7th. Thanks, Aru and Modolo for picking the right days to win!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

T-20 distribution;

2 players have 13 T-20s (Foxxy, Mutschi)
6 with 12
6 with 11
15 with 10
4 with 9
3 with 8 (ILovecycling, Jorik, Pours)

How can those change tomorrow? How many players have riders still with a shot at the top 20?

A wild guess only:
Cardoso (3 mins away from 20th) could squeeze in. Nobody has him, but it would hurt those five who have Betancur.
Kreuziger (9 mins), whom all but three have, could get in if he stays in touch to "help" AC a little longer.
Pirazzi (9 mins) could make it. All it needs is him being in the break and not losing too much time once he is caught. Nobody has him either, but again, it would hurt those having Betancur.
Jon Iz (10 mins) might get in. But please no, that gives 18 players a point but not me. Anyway, it´s very much possible he re-enters...
Rosa (14 mins) may get in if he stays with the AST train long enough. 6 players have him. Would certainly be a steal.
Cataldo (17 mins). See Rosa... all about the train. His possible re-entering would help 4 players.
And my personal Favo: Pellizottel (20 mins). He gets in the break, prevents another round of cramps, and gains loads of time back. I have him, as 25 others too.
Now 20 mins sound much, but it´s not. For example Betancur lost 31 mins today and still managed to stay inside T20. So some guys near T20 lost at least as massive time as Betancur did.
IOW: The fat lady has not yet sung. Still everything possible. The whole saga will go down to the wire when the sprinters reach the finish line on Sunday, and the CG guys get trou the slugfest unharmed.

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

Tomorrow after the provisionals I will do scenarios for each division for stage 21. I don´t do it today, since still too many things could happen tomorrow. For all those scenarios (see above + spot points + stage points), I would need to write a 300-page-book.

 

[mortand]

Re: Re:

For all those scenarios (see above + spot points + stage points), I would need to write a 300-page-book.

Now you're just being lazy, Foxxy.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re:

I had bad luck in the first half of the Giro, but good luck in the second half. I seem to be out of the danger zone, even if Hesjedal doesn't stay 7th. Thanks, Aru and Modolo for picking the right days to win!

Imagine: Even though unlikely, you also have a shot at the division crown. Who would have thought? You need Mezgec to win on Sunday, and gain another spot point.

For all those scenarios (see above + spot points + stage points), I would need to write a 300-page-book.

Now you're just being lazy, Foxxy.

Absolutely.

 

[Flamin]

Re: Re:

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

If it comes down to a Modolo Viviani showdown be scared - Modolo has a train right now!

Yes, I'm not getting my hopes up cuz it will be difficult

And thanks, foxxy.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Re: Re:

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

If it comes down to a Modolo Viviani showdown be scared - Modolo has a train right now!

Yes, I'm not getting my hopes up cuz it will be difficult

And thanks, foxxy.

Welcome.
Tomorrow, when many guys in the RR thread will moan about a boring stage between the top guys, many of us will have thrilling fun, bite fingers of who is in the break, who survives, who loses massive time... It will be great to hurt eyes again when trying to identify the back-numbers of riders who lose touch in the main group.... Long survive Kreuziger & Pellizottel. Get rid of Jon Iz & Co early please.
... and btw, Contador shall have his stage win. Would be sweet since my stage picks would look good all of a sudden, and another important point for me since G2F has Kiryienka as stage winner (who ofc shall not prevail in his usual "suicide attacks").

 

[mortand]

So, who did you end up leaving out of the top-20?

I ended up with these guys on my final shortlist, but falling just short. In hindsight, some were wise choices, some I should probably have trusted more.

Chaves (wise)

Anton (wise)

Dupont (wise, he's been nowhere, perhaps he lost all clues when Pozzovivo crashed out)

Cataldo (won't make top-20, but wouldn't have been a total disaster pick)

Kangert (I've had no luck with Kangert in this game, when I pick him, he's way off - when I don't, he delivers)

Landa (obvious fail. I wasn't expecting much from him in a three-week race. My bad)

Szmyd (wise, Sly probably's not got it anymore)

Geniez (damn, he's the one I regret the most. I really like Geniez, but his climbing this season hasn't been great.
He's my daring pick for the stage win tomorrow, but he's probably too far up the GC to be allowed to go in the break, and he's not gonna outclimb the favorites and fellow second tier GC-riders)

Cunego (I wasn't expecting much from Damiano. Might've been a decent pick, if he didn't crash out)

Cardoso (could still make a late entry into top-20. He was a 50/50 kind of rider for me. Don't have any regrets not picking him, though)

Danielson (was he even in the race?)

Formolo (won't make it, so wise choice. But a fun pick, for anyone who went with him for the top-20)

Henao (bit of a long shot, wise choice not picking him)

Siutsou (like Cardoso, a 50/50 pick. Ended up being a good call leaving him out)

Basso (Robo Basso is less than 80 minutes from the top-20, he can still make it! This version isn't Robo Basso. though )

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Cool idea. Let´s check back mine:
You remember I went havoc in my attempt to reduce AST riders from my T20:
My latest drops were (after reducing from 60something to 36 to 29):
Geniez (bad idea)
Niemiec (good)
Trofimov (even worse than the Geniez-drop idea)
Jon Iz (still pending)
Rosa (still pending)
Elissonde (good)
Anton (good)
Cataldo (my latest late late drop, last second I took him out, and took Kangert instead)
Zardini (my next to latest drop, originally I wanted to gamble, looking good to ya all at spotting guys no one have even thought about , thanks god I got back to earth and dropped him, took Atapuma instead)

 

[Pricey_sky]

Wow tipping Aru for today has really saved my bacon and keeps me 0.5 point ahead of vino! Tomorrow have tipped Contador and he has Nieve with us both tipping Mezgec on Sunday.

As for T20 we both have Kreuziger just outside too, the only changes I can see are I have izagirre and he has Pellizotti within 20 minutes. Neither of us has Bentacur or Tiralongo who could fall out. I have Nieve but he would have to lose around 35 minutes.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

So I guess you dont like to switch on your TV tomorrow seeing Nieve and/or Pelli in a 15 minutes break, right?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Re:

So I guess you dont like to switch on your TV tomorrow seeing Nieve and/or Pelli in a 15 minutes break, right?

Yes for once I will not be cheering on the sky rider!

 

[ILovecycling]

Re: Re:

Back where I belong in the standings.
Now I need AC to win the stage tomorrow and Aru to have a major melt down...he needs to be in 4th place on gc. Never say never in cycling.

Aru in 4th wouldn't change anything to the standings

Nice 3rd week peak though, first time in the lead at the right time, and ending my 12-day streak

And no, please let Contador not take any points tomorrow, so it will come down to a Modolo vs Viviani showdown for the division win!

If it comes down to a Modolo Viviani showdown be scared - Modolo has a train right now!

Yes, I'm not getting my hopes up cuz it will be difficult

And thanks, foxxy.

Welcome.
Tomorrow, when many guys in the RR thread will moan about a boring stage between the top guys, many of us will have thrilling fun, bite fingers of who is in the break, who survives, who loses massive time... It will be great to hurt eyes again when trying to identify the back-numbers of riders who lose touch in the main group.... Long survive Kreuziger & Pellizottel. Get rid of Jon Iz & Co early please. :-D
... and btw, Contador shall have his stage win. Would be sweet since my stage picks would look good all of a sudden, and another important point for me since G2F has Kiryienka as stage winner (who ofc shall not prevail in his usual "suicide attacks").

yea, for this stages I have to buy a flat screen with hd channels , those back-numbers on streams are tough task :-D
as for the cheering...it was hillarious,Iwas probably only one in RR section who cared about a guy named Formolo and if he was dropped after Barthelemy or Panteleon :-D


in a few minutes I'll bring my T20 analysis, stay tuned you will laugh hard!

 

[ILovecycling]

My T20 dream team aka team of 'give a *** about GC for once'

Contador: OK
Uran: probably the biggest disappointment (but for all) plus itt stage point not delivered, not bad in comparison with other guys from my division
Pozzovivo: crash (speedy recovery Pozzo!)
Kreuziger: injury + terrible form, not bad as almost everyone have him
Konig: OK, and good guess so far
VDB2: OK, placed him too high tho
Niemec: well, here it begins, I waited for miracle of improved form and riding like year (or 2) ago, mistake
Cunego: crash (speedy recovery!)
Caruso: OK
Zakarin: failed in prediction as most of us
Trofimov: OK placed him 11th, really didnt expect top10
Porte: failed (Zakarin situation)
Pellizotti: didnt expect him going only for stage,even tho I like it he surprised me
Chaves: big disapointment, I wasnt sure with picking him but didnt expect such a fail (bad form duhh,maybe not a GC contender at all)
Paterski: awww, too excited from his spring, big mistake
Aru: OK, but placed him too low, expected bad form and 3rd week peak
Dupont: awww yea I know
I.Izaggirre: still a possibility...but I was too confident in his tt and will power lol
Kruiswijk: OK proud pick, but too low
Formolo: expected a revelation ,double lol

As you can see I totally fvcked up that, too risky T20, too vuelt-ish I would say...

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

@ Pricey: I´ll root for Nieve as Vino will, coz I need him at 15th for a spot point. 12 mins to go...
For now I only have Caruso correct. And he certainly won´t hold exact 8th, since Kruiswijk is only 40 seconds behind him. So come on come on Nieve.

@ ILovecycling: Yes the RR guys don´t understand the importance of riders down 1 hour in the standings. Heck, even the riders themselves don´t understand.
And yes, bring it on. Wanna see which riders you left out. Maybe COLEDAN Marco?

Edit: Oh, I see you just posted... So let me check.

 

[Netserk]

Re: Re:

Well after today the DC is not a goal for me, gave up duhh...I'll focus to not to fell near the line of death after 19 stages securely away from that lol

btw I have the worst T20 of all rounds imo, maybe the worst of my division

Not only that, but you are tied for worst overall. The stage picks really saved you, Jorik, and Pours (so far).

Stat-Attack III:

T-20 distribution;

2 players have 13 T-20s (Foxxy , Mutschi)
6 with 12
6 with 11
15 with 10
4 with 9
3 with 8 (ILovecycling, Jorik, Pours)

Ugh, I knew my GC would be crap. Only 9 in the top-20 and only Contador in the right place

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

ILove: I thought you bring your short list like Mort & me? Otherwise good analysis. Real messed up only 2 or 3 riders, the others were unlucky.

Netserk: Did you check which miracle you need to make the jump above the line?

 

[Pricey_sky]

I hope Astana ride crazy again to see the end of the break, either way as you have said Foxxy its nice going into the final mountain stage with lots of tension and looking out for many riders that will decide our fate. Either way I wont be calling the action boring!

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yes no prob AST can go wild. Nieve then finishes 3-4 minutes down (after being caught some 5 km before the finish line), while the others around him in the Standings finish 20 mins down, having lost contact to the AST group on the Finestre already. Perfect plan. Only thing is: Nieve first things first has to get into the break.

 

[Tigerion]

Well between them Aru and Hesjadel just killed any chance I had taking out all my spot picks besides Contie

Basically my only hope if Contador to win today and Vivianni on Sunday. And if Landa can crack horrible and drop to at least 9th out that would be nice as I need Caruso and Kruijswijk to jump on position.
Alternatively if Hesjedal drops to is correct position at 11th overall that would have the same effect

 

[Sasquatch]

I need Betancur to win today. I don't think I'm safe yet.

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

I need Betancur to win today. I don't think I'm safe yet.

ohh you have Bentacur ,great shot!

 

[ILovecycling]

Re:

ILove: I thought you bring your short list like Mort & me? Otherwise good analysis. Real messed up only 2 or 3 riders, the others were unlucky.

Netserk: Did you check which miracle you need to make the jump above the line?

only? ,thats 3-6 points range


@Netserk still better than my T20

 

[ILovecycling]

Just for today...Vai Aru! lol