The Great Grand-Tour-Game 2014/15 "TdF Monster Edition"

[mutschi]

Real roller coaster game this is. From leading the division to line ball playing within three stages - unbelievable. Not looking good. My only hope is Bertie tomorrow. He really needs to win that stage for me to stay in the game. And I was betting on Tony Martin to leave before the end but it doesn't look like it.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yes you could drop below the line tomorrow if AC doesn´t score and JRod either wins or finishes 2nd/3rd.
So all you need is AC to score, or a at least 3-Men break gets trou preventing JRod from scoring. That´s both more likely than that JRod scores and AC doesn´t.
... But, but... there is still a great chance of CG spot shuffling tomorrow. And still you have the advantage over Pricey and LosBrolin since both could lose a extra point (while you can only gain since having no one in spot now), even though unlikely b/c they have Froome (I don´t see him drop below Valv & even more unlikely that he takes the overall lead) respectively Aru, who sits pretty safe from they guys around him at 5th. OK, VinoAE would disagree and see Aru drop JRod to 5th tomorrow, which many of us would not like at all since we are very happy with JRod at 4th.

In any case, it will be a game defining stage tomorrow. I am looking forward it, still dreaming of doing the unthinkable some days ago: Winning the division.

 

[the asian]

Oh Dear, Winner Annacona

After playing with fire, all these days, it seems that I'll be going down.

 

[LosBrolin]

Well, well, JRod is not going to save me thats for sure. Playing lineball since the start of the TDF so can't say i'am surprised One can hope tho, but losing Winner was a last straw i guess. Sick game

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

You guys will battle it out, while I pretty relaxed enjoy my place in the sun for the time being.
Because one thing is for sure; it won´t get easier in Lineball 2015. I guess nail biting time again, like it was in the TdF for me.

Edit: For the survivors (especially Eshnar if he makes a miraculous comeback); I will make the division draw live for the Giro on WC-road-race-men-day (if nothing comes in between) to kill some time in the dull hours...
The division winners (& runner-ups*) will stay in their groups, the other players will be drawn like the last two times.

* I will auto be in Anquetil. So if I don´t finish 1st or 2nd, I have to re-think the process a little depending on the final results.

 

[Sasquatch]

Am I safe?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Am I safe?

Good question. TBH, I don´t know since there are some tight gaps in the T-20. Especially up front. Changes there could throw (almost) everything up side down again.
I will do some stage 21 scenarios tomorrow night after the provisionals are out (like I did before the last TdF stage). Until then: You have to tremble with excitement.

... or was the question sarcastic?

Edit: Anaconas downfall in graphics:

http://www.cyclograph.cc/Race/Get/1...8&r=Anacona_Gomez_Winner,Caruso_Damiano,&z=50

... and stage 19 not even included yet.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Anacondas downfall in graphics:

http://www.cyclograph.cc/Race/Get/1...8&r=Anacona_Gomez_Winner,Caruso_Damiano,&z=50

... and stage 19 not even included yet.

 

[Sasquatch]

It was sarcastic.

I have Aru tonight, but I want another Astana rider in Landa to win

 

[ILovecycling]

nahh, division win doesnt look doable for me anymore , Anacona out and Nieve riding worse than Dani Moreno, not much points left to score.

 

[greenedge]

I need a breakaway rider to win as i picked Quintana for the MTF- maybe Cadel

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Provisional Rankings after Stage 20

The unthinkable happened, I took the division lead from Geraint. A miracle...
Eshnar with a remarkable comeback, juust falling short on a tie breaker step.
Sasquatch fell back under the line for the first time since stage 16. Ouch!

Explanation of the provisionals are in post #1, as the links to them are too.

The “Anquetil”-Division:
26.0 FoxxyBrown1111
25.5 Geraint Too Fast
24.0 Afrank
21.5 aarnold517
21.5 kiilike
21.0 Arredondo
20.5 Wallenquist (DC)
19.0 Poursuivant
-------------------------------------------------
18.5 Gotland *
17.5 JOSEDIN
17.5 zlev11
(* out on "further elimination race")

The “Bartali”-Division:
25.0 Jspear
22.5 Ruudz0r
22.0 Mellow Velo
22.0 oliveira
21.5 l.Harm
21.0 diggercuz
21.0 mutschi
20.5 Pricey_sky
20.0 LosBrolin *
-------------------------------------------------
20.0 Sasquatch (DC)
18.0 kingjr
(* LosBrolin wins tie breaker on step 2 with 11 T-20s vs Sasquatch with 9 T-20s)

The “Coppi”-Division:
27.5 Hugo87
26.5 18-Valve. (pithy) (DC)
25.5 ILovecycling
24.5 BYOP88
24.0 Flamin
23.0 Vino attacks everyone
20.5 Jorik112
20.0 mortand (WC)
20.0 Pantani_lives
-------------------------------------------------
19.5 jaylew
19.5 the asian

The “Defraeye”-Division:
28.0 the sceptic (DC)
22.5 search
21.5 al_pacino
21.5 asdfgh101
21.5 Ferminal
21.5 The Hitch
21.0 vladimir
19.5 movingtarget
19.5 Tigerion
19.0 greenedge *
-------------------------------------------------
19.0 Eshnar
18.0 minessa
(* greenedge wins tie breaker on step 1 with 16 scores vs Eshnar with 15 scores)

Based on the likely scenarios for stage 21: (see post #708)
Orange; Division champion (and already qualified for the next round)
Silver; In the hunt for division championship (and already qualified for the next round)
Red; Qualified for the next round
Green; In "make or brake" situation
Blue; Eliminated

 

[Afrank]

How'd that happen?

Congrats Foxxy! But just wait, Malori will win tomorrow, Dan Martin will get his 6th place back, and...I dunno, Moreno will implode and fall to 12th I guess?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Yeah still tight... fingers crossed

 

[Geraint Too Fast]

Can somebody convince Contador he needs to go full gas tomorrow? Thanks.

 

[Vino attacks everyone]

Im still not out of the game.

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Players who were "on elimination" at the 15 posted provisional rankings: (stages 3, 5, 6, 8, 9, 10, 11, 14, 15, 16, 17, 17-B*, 18, 19 and 20)

The “Anquetil”-Division:
0 x FoxxyBrown1111
0 x Geraint Too Fast
2 x Afrank (3, 5)
0 x aarnold517
3 x kiilike (6, 9, 10)
2 x Arredondo (8, 16)
3 x Wallenquist (15, 17, 17B)
3 x Poursuivant (3, 5, 14)
-------------------------------------------------
11 x Gotland (6-9, 11-17, 19-20)
10 x JOSEDIN (8, 10, 14-20)
10 x zlev11 (3-6, 9-11, 17B-20)


The “Bartali”-Division:
2 x Jspear (3, 5)
0 x Ruudz0r
0 x Mellow Velo
0 x oliveira
10 x l.Harm (3-6, 9-14, 17-18)
0 x diggercuz
0 x mutschi
0 x Pricey_sky
1 x LosBrolin (19)
-------------------------------------------------
5 x Sasquatch (6, 8, 15, 16, 20)
12 x kingjr (8-20)


The “Coppi”-Division:
0 x Hugo87
0 x 18-Valve. (pithy)
0 x ILovecycling
2 x BYOP88 (3, 14)
1 x Flamin (3)
2 x Vino attacks everyone (8, 9)
10 x Jorik112 (6, 8, 10-18)
2 x mortand (5, 11)
6 x Pantani_lives (6, 10, 15-17B)
-------------------------------------------------
5 x jaylew (5, 9, 18-20)
2 x the asian (19, 20)

The “Defraeye”-Division:
1 x the sceptic (3)
0 x search
0 x al_pacino
8 x asdfgh101 (5-14, 16)
0 x Ferminal
0 x The Hitch
3 x vladimir (10, 11, 17)
0 x movingtarget
4 x Tigerion (14-16, 17B)
0 x greenedge
-------------------------------------------------
5 x Eshnar (11, 17B-20)
10 x minessa (3-9, 15, 17, 18-20)

* 17-B were the standings after Gesink announced his abandon laying 7th CG

 

[Flamin]

That's one helluva comeback from Jorik I remember seeing him dead last for most of the time, now he's safe.

 

[Sasquatch]

Damn. A reigning DC is out

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Damn. A reigning DC is out

Not yet...

Likely scenarios for stage 21 that would influence elimination spots and/or division championships:

Geraint Too Fast wins the division instead of FoxxyBrown1111 if Contador finishes the stage inside T-3 and/or if Sanchez and Martin swap CG places.
18-Valve. (pithy) wins the division instead of Hugo87 if Malori finishes the stage inside T-3 and if Sanchez and Martin swap CG places.
LosBrolin would be eliminated instead of Sasquatch if Sanchez and Martin swap CG places.
Pantani_lives would be eliminated instead of jaylew if Malori finishes the stage inside T-3.

Other scenarios would either not change current rankings regarding elimination spots and division championships (like Sergent, Castroviejo, Arndt, or Froome finishing the stage inside T-3), or are extreme unlikely to happen (like Rodriguez and Aru, or Barguil and Navarro respectively Damiano Caruso, swapping CG places, or T-20 riders crashing out), even though such events would open the door for miraculous comebacks (like Eshnar qualifiying "in the last second").

 

[Sasquatch]

Sanchez needed to be a little bit more disappointing than what he was.

Go Martn. Get back the time tonight. Hope Sanchez gets a mechanical.

 

[Jspear]

Man! Better enjoy where I am while it last. This game is cruel....I could be dead last in the Giro! Foxxy thanks so much for taking the time to look over stats and come up with likely scenarios and whats not. You rock!

 

[Pricey_sky]

Am I actually through Foxxy despite being only 0.5 ahead of the elimination?

 

[FoxxyBrown1111]

Sanchez needed to be a little bit more disappointing than what he was.

Go Martn. Get back the time tonight. Hope Sanchez gets a mechanical.

LOL. It was just some seconds too good in being bad.

Man! Better enjoy where I am while it last. This game is cruel....I could be dead last in the Giro! Foxxy thanks so much for taking the time to look over stats and come up with likely scenarios and whats not. You rock!

Thanks a lot.

Am I actually through Foxxy despite being only 0.5 ahead of the elimination?

Yes. Based on likely scenarios (post #708), the provisionals of stage 20 (post #701) indicate you are trou.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Thanks Foxxy, I can look forward to the Giro now. Thanks for organising again, enjoy the rest until May!