The Monuments Men – Or who will win all 5 of them?

[Cycling111]

The difference being that Remcos way to be able to ride them successfully is learning the craft of riding on cobbles, what vdP needs to win Lombardia is a body transformation. No learning will get him around that. I don't think that vdP is interested in that, or that it would be a good idea, because it might also simply not work. But there is a road of learning for Remco, if he wanted to do it. Of course he could also not succeed at it, but it's not outlandish someone learns to ride well on cobbles I guess. Also given that he's still relatively new to this whole bike racing thing.

No underestimating PR.
I insist, you're underestimating what Pogacar achieved in Roubaix.

Before Sunday, some people were saying that Pogacar wouldn't even finish fifth in Roubaix, and now anyone with power can win Roubaix
Pogacar has a capacity that not all TDF winners and even Classics riders have demonstrated in Roubaix cobbles.

Lemmond went to Roubaix as a Tour de France winner and finished 30th.

If it were as simple as having power, many Liège winners or ITT winners would´ve achieved podium in Roubaix.

Tarling has a lot of power in a time trial, and as soon as he hits the cobbles, his weaknesses are evident, and he can't unleash his full power.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

No underestimating PR.
I insist, you're underestimating what Pogacar achieved in Roubaix.

Before Sunday, some people were saying that Pogacar wouldn't even finish fifth in Roubaix, and now anyone with power can win Roubaix
Pogacar has a capacity that not all TDF winners and even Classics riders have demonstrated in Roubaix.

Lemmond went to Roubaix as a Tour de France winner and finished 30th.

If it were as simple as having power, many Liège winners or ITT winners would´ve achieved podium in Roubaix.

Tarling has a lot of power in a time trial, and as soon as he hits the cobbles, his weaknesses are evident, and he can't unleash his full power.

Well, if you read again what I wrote, you'll see I said he might learn to ride on cobbles so he can ride those races successfully, which to me means good results, not guaranteed wins. It's not at all a given that he'd win it if he got cozy with the cobbles, but that wasn't my point. It was much more specific about the vdP/Lombardia - Remco/cobbles comparison. All I said was that there is a diference in having to transform your body in ways that harm all your other goals, or to learn a skill. Needless to say that learning this skill isn't a given and failure is an option.

 

[Barkintheeye]

No underestimating PR.
I insist, you're underestimating what Pogacar achieved in Roubaix.

Before Sunday, some people were saying that Pogacar wouldn't even finish fifth in Roubaix, and now anyone with power can win Roubaix
Pogacar has a capacity that not all TDF winners and even Classics riders have demonstrated in Roubaix.

Lemmond went to Roubaix as a Tour de France winner and finished 30th.

If it were as simple as having power, many Liège winners or ITT winners would´ve achieved podium in Roubaix.

Tarling has a lot of power in a time trial, and as soon as he hits the cobbles, his weaknesses are evident, and he can't unleash his full power.

They're riding the cobbles at +60 km/h which is insane. And it's not just that you need to stay upright you need to avoid riding the wrong lines and sitting exactly right on the saddle in order to safeguard from puncturing.

Cornering is also a key skill on the final pavé sections and here Pog made just that one decisive mistake while MVDP managed to escape unscathed (he had so many close calls both this year and last year but still came out on top). These skills comes from thousands of hours riding offroad / CX. For anyone familiar with CX it is common knowledge that cornering can win you a race and it definitely can make you lose the race. So far Remco hasn't shown any of these skills.

ps. Pog is no beginner to offroad and certainly no pushover. He has skills and the guts to go all-in without any hesitation.

ps ps. If you race offroad (MTB, CX, Gravel, road PR/RVV/Strade B) yourself you will know that there is a point where you think you cannot go any faster and a wipe-out is just about to happen... and then other riders will still go faster. That's what will happen to Remco should he race MSR, RVV and PR

 

[Red Rick]

No underestimating PR.
I insist, you're underestimating what Pogacar achieved in Roubaix.

Before Sunday, some people were saying that Pogacar wouldn't even finish fifth in Roubaix, and now anyone with power can win Roubaix
Pogacar has a capacity that not all TDF winners and even Classics riders have demonstrated in Roubaix cobbles.

Lemmond went to Roubaix as a Tour de France winner and finished 30th.

If it were as simple as having power, many Liège winners or ITT winners would´ve achieved podium in Roubaix.

Tarling has a lot of power in a time trial, and as soon as he hits the cobbles, his weaknesses are evident, and he can't unleash his full power.

Find me anyone saying Pogacar couldn't top 5 Roubaix before Sunday.

 

[Rechtschreibfehler]

Find me anyone saying Pogacar couldn't top 5 Roubaix before Sunday.

Hard to see MvdP getting Lombardia. I didn't think Pogi would even finish top 10 on Sunday though tbh.

 

[Netserk]

I think Liège is harder to win for VdP than Lombardia, as the calendar and varying routes give more wiggle room for the latter. The Worlds routes will be too hard for him in the coming years, so the opportunity cost for Lombardia is quite low.

What is he going to do for the rest of this year? A halfhearted peak for the Tour with only a handful of stages where he will make an effort and then the first autumn without targets since the pandemic.

 

[AmRacer]

I think Liège is harder to win for VdP than Lombardia, as the calendar and varying routes give more wiggle room for the latter. The Worlds routes will be too hard for him in the coming years, so the opportunity cost for Lombardia is quite low.

What is he going to do for the rest of this year? A halfhearted peak for the Tour with only a handful of stages where he will make an effort and then the first autumn without targets since the pandemic.

MTB. Mathieu wants to win the rainbow

 

[Netserk]

MTB

Would he not also slim down somewhat for that?

 

[AmRacer]

Wouldn't he not also slim down somewhat for that?

Think more getting used to MTB again.

 

[proffate]

Wouldn't he not also slim down somewhat for that?

Too many double negatives but no I don't think mvdp needs to lose weight, his best xc weight is probably the same as his best cx weight

 

[Amazinmets87]

I wouldn't mind an easier Lombardia, as it is now favouring Pog too much.
At the other hand, I wouldn't mind a slightly harder San Remo, but maybe that would favour Pog too much!
I think Liege is how it should be, as the old parcours favoured wheelsuckers a bit too much, but maybe that was just that era. Nowadays, the modern crop of riders would probably still make a Redoute attack stick to the end.

How would one make San Remo harder?

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

How would one make San Remo harder?

Reintroduce Le Manie or make it terrible and add Pompeiana (climb between Cipressa and Poggio).
The first would probably not change much because its too far out while the latter would be a slaughter and just gift Pogacar the next 5 victories.

 

[Tonton]

I love the back-and-forth posts. it is very simple for me:

Pogacar and Van der Poel can absolutely do it, and I hope that they both do it.

Remco is not done my friends...he will come back with a vengeance. He is too big of a champion, insanely good, he has a shot every time he enters a race.

Wout has to be on my list, He won one: MSR. He finished in the top-10 in the last 13 monuments that he participated in. Runner-up at the RVV and at PR, he can definitely win a Lombardia. He's facing two legends. What are his odds? How many percents? 8 ...

WvA and Remco, Tadej and Matthieu will win more monuments, how many, which ones? We have some great monument cycling coming up, epic battles. Fantastic!

Anyway...Pauline is a better rider than any of them. ALLEZ PAULINE!!!

 

[gavia88]

Tbh I don't think the difficulty of the routes matters that much for MvdP. This is simply the point in the season where every year people are so amazed by his cobbles performances that they forget he really can't climb that well. Like AGR is almost too climbing heavy for him. He won it once, true, but even then he needed a huge favor from Alaphilippe and Fuglsang to do so. In the hilly section around Eyserbosweg he always got smoked by better climbers. There will never be an edition of LBL and Lombardia without harder climbs than that.

People always point to "the routes when Gilbert won" but Gilbert still followed Scarponi on SFDB and the Schlecks on RaF (I hope my memory is not tricking me here). I don't think MvdP could do that.

I mostly agree. Especially, when starting more seriously on the road, people expected MvdP to compete in races like Fleche Wallon as well. In the meanwhile I guess nobody expect him to race it even anymore.

In general his climbing is not good enough to compete in races on the level of Amstel Gold Race or more difficult. Although I also think this is mainly because of his focus on CX and cobble classics. There are some performances that proofs in my opioning that he could do better with some more focus. Like last years world championship or that solo in the Tireno a few years ago in the murito stage.

Maybe with more focus on MTB his climbing abilities will improve a bit. But of course not enough for Lombardia.

 

[ppanther92]

The only realistic name is Pogacar and even there its far from certain if he really pulls off a MSR and PR.

Evenepoel will never win a cobbled monument.

MvdP no GdL, LBL is a stretch as well but can work in my opinion if he shifts focus a bit and Pogacar/Evenepoel have an off day/bad luck/are not there.

WvA - well, he should rather see to get any wins rather than thinking about that.

Others - totally irrelevant to this discussion.

 

[AmRacer]

The only realistic name is Pogacar and even there its far from certain if he really pulls off a MSR and PR.

Evenepoel will never win a cobbled monument.

MvdP no GdL, LBL is a stretch as well but can work in my opinion if he shifts focus a bit and Pogacar/Evenepoel have an off day/bad luck/are not there.

WvA - well, he should rather see to get any wins rather than thinking about that.

Others - totally irrelevant to this discussion.

Mathieu gets older and when he isn't at his best, Pogi will win both MSR and PR.

 

[gerundium]

When Mathieu Podiumed Liege he commented after the race that his 3rd place was really the maximum he could extract. I think this race made him realise that attempting a Liege and GdL is a pipedream. He's a class act that can mix it up be he doesn't have the capacity to excel above the other climbers and realistically go for a win.

Strangely enough Pog's biggest showstopper for achieving the 5 monuments is MvdP. They are in essence neutralising each other with MvdP being Pogs biggest hurdle for winning MSR and Roubaix. If Mathieu decides he really is going for Liege / GdL it might end up granting the 5 monuments to pog.

 

[Red Rick]

Tbh I don't think the difficulty of the routes matters that much for MvdP. This is simply the point in the season where every year people are so amazed by his cobbles performances that they forget he really can't climb that well. Like AGR is almost too climbing heavy for him. He won it once, true, but even then he needed a huge favor from Alaphilippe and Fuglsang to do so. In the hilly section around Eyserbosweg he always got smoked by better climbers. There will never be an edition of LBL and Lombardia without harder climbs than that.

People always point to "the routes when Gilbert won" but Gilbert still followed Scarponi on SFDB and the Schlecks on RaF (I hope my memory is not tricking me here). I don't think MvdP could do that.

His performances in AGR have honestly been some of his worst on hard routes in the last few years, so I think there's a considerable bit of decompensating after Roubaix going on last year. In 2022 it was inbetween RVV and Roubaix but he was coming down toward Roubaix too. The last WC was harder than Amstel and he got 3rd there.

This season is the best climbing he's ever done I think, and I think he could win Liege without Pogacar or Evenepoel, while I would never think that for a Lombardia with a modern Lombardia route.

Gilbert did hang on on RaF and SFDB, but Gilbert's window of being a legit hilly classic specialist was pretty short, and he never made the top 5 after 2011 again in Liege despite that being the weakest and most passive era of that race. SFDB is also like 2k 7% and those Lombardia routes shouldn't be overestimated in my view.

 

[Netserk]

I mostly agree. Especially, when starting more seriously on the road, people expected MvdP to compete in races like Fleche Wallon as well. In the meanwhile I guess nobody expect him to race it even anymore.

In general his climbing is not good enough to compete in races on the level of Amstel Gold Race or more difficult. Although I also think this is mainly because of his focus on CX and cobble classics. There are some performances that proofs in my opioning that he could do better with some more focus. Like last years world championship or that solo in the Tireno a few years ago in the murito stage.

Maybe with more focus on MTB his climbing abilities will improve a bit. But of course not enough for Lombardia.

I think MvdP has also gained weight since 2021.

 

[Unterlenkerfahrend]

It's a shame my man Jakob Fuglsang has never bothered to have a go at the 3 missing monuments.
Pretty sure he would've cleaned up Flanders and Roubaix and while San Remo does not favor him, I'm optimistic he could've sneaked away with one if he just tried enough over his career given his savvy racing style.

 

[Gigs_98]

I think Liège is harder to win for VdP than Lombardia, as the calendar and varying routes give more wiggle room for the latter. The Worlds routes will be too hard for him in the coming years, so the opportunity cost for Lombardia is quite low.

What is he going to do for the rest of this year? A halfhearted peak for the Tour with only a handful of stages where he will make an effort and then the first autumn without targets since the pandemic.

Genuinely curious, you don't think there is a decent chance LBL might be in for another route change relatively soon? The last three editions have been quite dreadful so I can see them reverting to a route trying to keep things together a bit longer.

 

[Netserk]

Genuinely curious, you don't think there is a decent chance LBL might be in for another route change relatively soon? The last three editions have been quite dreadful so I can see them reverting to a route trying to keep things together a bit longer.

No, not to a great degree. I think Redoute and RaF are locked, all variation will be what comes between them and whether or not that they will add e.g. Colonster afterwards.

 

[Red Rick]

Genuinely curious, you don't think there is a decent chance LBL might be in for another route change relatively soon? The last three editions have been quite dreadful so I can see them reverting to a route trying to keep things together a bit longer.

Don't think there is anything they can do unless they take out Redoute, and they're just not gonna do that.

 

[ppanther92]

Mathieu gets older and when he isn't at his best, Pogi will win both MSR and PR.

Lets see. Personally I give him a 50/50 chance roughly to win both

 

[Netserk]

No, not to a great degree. I think Redoute and RaF are locked, all variation will be what comes between them and whether or not that they will add e.g. Colonster afterwards.

They could plausibly also do the finishing climb to Seraing from the 2012 Tour after the original descent of RaF instead of Colonster:

Alternative Liège finale

42.5 km, +782 m. Bike ride in Luik, Wallonië

ridewithgps.com

If they take Avenue du Beau-Site, they cut the climb in half and only do the second half of it.

I don't like the finishing straight now nor the final descent, but I have no hope that it'll change.

EDIT: I think this is what it'd need to look like for Van der Poel to have a chance:

Alternative Liège finale

44.9 km, +832 m. Bike ride in Luik, Wallonië

ridewithgps.com