The Monuments Men – Or who will win all 5 of them?

[toolittle]

Re:

Kwiatkowski could struggle in Paris-Roubaix, and Sagan will find the current routes of Giro di Lombardia too hard. In fact, they're actually too hard for Kwiatkowski right now too.

Michael Kwiatkowski is a mystery rider. It seems that he doesn't any killer kick.
But he has managed to put a lots of big win in his bag.

Look at the result he has now. I won't be too surprise if he could win a Grand tour + 5 Monuments.
If he join Q/S in the later parts of career, it would be more achievable.
He is just 26.
Check Sean Kelly. MK is far better than Sean Kelly when he was 26.


Philippe Gilbert is more closer to be Mr. Monuments.

Firstly, he is in QS team.

He has Matteo Trentin, Fernando Gaviria and Julian Alaphilippe in his disposal for Milan–San Remo.
The new route make late attack more possible. And, some of strong riders of the generation such as GVA/Sagan/MK loves to attack lately.
What he need is : trail wind, good form and some luck.

For sure, Gilbert has no experience in PR which is important for a winner. If he train for it intentionally, I think all of us believe he could manage.

Again, QS has a deep team. If it was Gilbert not Stybar at the final, GVA is likely lose out.
Tomeke retirement may make 2018 QS stronger then 2017 QS in PR.

 

[Brullnux]

New route?

 

[Red Rick]

Re: Re:

GVA can only win RVV and Roubaix I think.

He's come 7th in Liege before, and if he manages to reach the end in the front group then he certainly can win. It won'the be easy, but he's won harder races.

The hills are too long for GvA too stick if they're ridden all out. In Flanders he's one of the 3 best on the hills, in LBL he's one of many, and if he has to work harder than anyone, it makes his sprint relatively worse.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

GVA can only win RVV and Roubaix I think.

He's come 7th in Liege before, and if he manages to reach the end in the front group then he certainly can win. It won'the be easy, but he's won harder races.

The hills are too long for GvA too stick if they're ridden all out. In Flanders he's one of the 3 best on the hills, in LBL he's one of many, and if he has to work harder than anyone, it makes his sprint relatively worse.

https://youtu.be/Ua80hzoNkcM

 

[DFA123]

I think the big problem GVA has in LBL - even if at his best I believe he could hang on the hills in a slowish edition - is that he's always going to be coming into the race with RVV, PR and several other hard classics in his legs. The specialists he will compete against have done a couple of relatively easy stage races and are all tapering to a very nice peak for it. I think it makes an outside chance that he has, almost impossible.

 

[Fernandez]

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

 

[roundabout]

Re: Re:

GVA can only win RVV and Roubaix I think.

He's come 7th in Liege before, and if he manages to reach the end in the front group then he certainly can win. It won'the be easy, but he's won harder races.

The hills are too long for GvA too stick if they're ridden all out. In Flanders he's one of the 3 best on the hills, in LBL he's one of many, and if he has to work harder than anyone, it makes his sprint relatively worse.

https://youtu.be/Ua80hzoNkcM

14 minutes of video, and what was likely the decisive moment is not shown.

 

[DFA123]

Re:

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

Five monuments by a huge margin. The 3 GTs are basically the same; if you can win one then you can win them all. Froome, for example, could easily have won a Giro and a Vuelta if he targetted them one year instead of the Tour. Nibali and Contador have won them all; despite arguably not even being the best stage racers of their generation.

It's also much harder for the strongest rider to win a monument (especially hilly ones), than it is for the strongest rider to win a GT. You can make loads of mistakes in a GT, have several bad days, (think Nibali last year) and still win if you are better than your opponents. In a monument; one piece of bad luck, or one tactical error can take the strongest rider out of contention in an instant. To win all five in the current era, with the differing skill set required, would be easily the greatest achievement in cycling history imo.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re:

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

Winning the 5 Monuments, without a doubt.

It takes the same type of rider to win any GT, the field is just less good in the Giro and Vuelta. To win all 5 Monuments you need to peak for an entire year and be incredibly versatile and lucky (the strongest doesn't always win in a Monument).

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

 

[Alexandre B.]

Re: Re:

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

Winning the 5 Monuments, without a doubt.

It takes the same type of rider to win any GT, the field is just less good in the Giro and Vuelta. To win all 5 Monuments you need to peak for an entire year and be incredibly versatile and lucky (the strongest doesn't always win in a Monument).

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Démare can win Roubaix some day.

 

[DFA123]

Re: Re:

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

Winning the 5 Monuments, without a doubt.

It takes the same type of rider to win any GT, the field is just less good in the Giro and Vuelta. To win all 5 Monuments you need to peak for an entire year and be incredibly versatile and lucky (the strongest doesn't always win in a Monument).

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Not sure Demare is a very fair example; he's probably the least impressive monument winner since Zaugg. His win at MSR was a bit of a fluke - possibly getting towed up the Cipressa, then having the fastest men all taken out by a crash and Bouhanni hampered by a mechanical. Kind of 1 in 100 chance of that happening.

 

[Anderis]

Re: Re:

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Demare just finished 6th today 12 seconds behind the winner. He is only 25. A crash in the front group and he could've won even today. Definetely has a chance to do it at least one during his career. I would say he has a better chance than Hayman ever had and Hayman did it.

I agree with your point, but saying that just because you can win Roubaix doesn't mean that you can win Lombardia would be probably a more accurate statement.

 

[May0maniac]

Re: Re:

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Demare just finished 6th today 12 seconds behind the winner. He is only 25. A crash in the front group and he could've won even today. Definetely has a chance to do it at least one during his career. I would say he has a better chance than Hayman ever had and Hayman did it.

I agree with your point, but saying that just because you can win Roubaix doesn't mean that you can win Lombardia would be probably a more accurate statement.

This, Demare was always a Roubaix guy, he already finished 12th in 2014 by winning the bunch sprint.

 

[WheelofGear]

Getting over at 1.5k climb at 8.5% is MUCH harder for a sprinter than getting over a longer climb (say 5% for 5k).

The climbs in Liege is made for climbers and really good puncheurs.

8-10% at 1 or 2k are climber's climbs. I doubt GVA and Sagan can survive on those. At least not after a hard race.

 

[El Pistolero]

Re: Re:

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Demare just finished 6th today 12 seconds behind the winner. He is only 25. A crash in the front group and he could've won even today. Definetely has a chance to do it at least one during his career. I would say he has a better chance than Hayman ever had and Hayman did it.

I agree with your point, but saying that just because you can win Roubaix doesn't mean that you can win Lombardia would be probably a more accurate statement.

This, Demare was always a Roubaix guy, he already finished 12th in 2014 by winning the bunch sprint.

I'm just taking the piss out of Demare because he cheated his way to a MSR win in the most disgusting way possible. If he's so strong that he can chase back to an unleashed peloton after a crash and then easily win a sprint then he should be able to win much much more... But we all know what happened.

 

[Brullnux]

Re: Re:

GVA can only win RVV and Roubaix I think.

He's come 7th in Liege before, and if he manages to reach the end in the front group then he certainly can win. It won'the be easy, but he's won harder races.

The hills are too long for GvA too stick if they're ridden all out. In Flanders he's one of the 3 best on the hills, in LBL he's one of many, and if he has to work harder than anyone, it makes his sprint relatively worse.

https://youtu.be/Ua80hzoNkcM

14 minutes of video, and what was likely the decisive moment is not shown.

It was the only video I could find (it was a quick search granted). I don't think the IOC or UCI like those videos online, so it had to do.

 

[Valv.Piti]

With Rue Naniot and assuming GVA didn't drop that much form, he would be one of the favourites for L-B-L. Correct me if Im wrong, but I think it should be out again this year, but you still have to give him a shot.

 

[Red Rick]

He top 10'd once, and that was after being up the road and getting dropped on the St Nicolas. Climbing ability matters to the point where GvA can't be among the best 5 in on the hills I think, and given he's done all the cobbled races, specific preparation like for Rio isn't something that's happening.

 

[Brullnux]

I agree that GvA is very unlikely to win it because of preparation (or lack thereof), but if he targeted it and everything fell into place then I think he could win.

 

[gregrowlerson]

Re: Re:

I was wondering what is a bigger feat, winning the 5 monuments or winning the 3 grand tours? What do you think?

Winning the 5 Monuments, without a doubt.

It takes the same type of rider to win any GT, the field is just less good in the Giro and Vuelta. To win all 5 Monuments you need to peak for an entire year and be incredibly versatile and lucky (the strongest doesn't always win in a Monument).

If you can win the Tour you can win all 3 GTs. Just because you can win Milan-San Remo doesn't mean you can win the Ronde or Roubaix. Just look at Demare...

Yes, over an entire career the greater achievement would be to win all 5 monuments. And I'm a GT fan.

If you are talking about somehow achieving either set in just a single year, then the 3 GT's would be more impossible (if you can get any more impossible than already impossible), since having the energy to peak and survive for 63 race days is far more unimaginable than a rider doing so for 5 (admittedly longer and tougher) race days.

On the subject of versatility, does anyone think that one of the monuments should involve genuine high mountain/s? I ask because MSR is fairly flat, then you have the 2 cobbled classics (one of which is hilly), and then 2 hilly classics of LBL and Lombardia. What's the longest climb that has been done in recent times in Lombardia?

 

[the asian]

Lombardia has turned in to a climbers race recently. No puncheur can win on the current routes.

 

[Brullnux]

Valcava last year was about 12km, and four climbs longer than 5km followed. In 2015, Ghisallo (9km) was followed quickly by Colma di Sormano (7km) with the Muro in it too. Civiglio is like 5km at 8/9% and San Fermo is a bit shorter but still steep.

 

[Mr.White]

Re:

I agree that GvA is very unlikely to win it because of preparation (or lack thereof), but if he targeted it and everything fell into place then I think he could win.

He could win it, but he would need a lot of luck for that. He can't outclimb main guys on St.Nicholas and Ans, he would need to sneak away somewhere, and the chase need to be disorganized so he could pull it off. And of course he would need to prepare especially for Ardennes, so no Roubaix that year, and not absolute peak at De Ronde.

 

[Brullnux]

Ans flattens out after the final corner, no? I think he can outsprint almost anyone if he's up there by the end, except maybe Gerrans (of a couple of years ago) or Valverde, but he can't keep going forever.

 

[barmaher]

I remember reading that the race wouldn't be finishing in Ans very soon. Maybe this year is the last year. I could have imagined reading that, mind you.