The mother of all apology speeches

[workingclasshero]

I'm sure he wil gradually turn. Just like the gradual turning of his fanboys who are able to continue their adoration because of the small changes.

The "message" has been from "never", to "500 tests and no positives" to "everyone was doing it" etc. Subtle changes of message which brought the fanboys along each stage without them having to be completely disillusioned in one go which would break them away.

So I see this continuing. Simply because it is what is personally best for LA.

There will be an admission, a spreading of blame, and the beginning of martyrdom soon. And that gradual process will continue. He has to pre-empt upcoming events like Bruyneel's hearing, the Kimmage case, and SCA's probably upcoming case.

People are idiotically forgiving. They do not understand sociopaths.

this is what I fear and think will happen

nobody likes being fooled, so they will go with it just to be able to tell themselves that Lance didn't really take them for a ride.

 

[mikkemus23]

I he admits to use of PED`s it would give me nothing.

What he did to Betsy, Frankie, Greg, Emma, Bassons, Simeoni, Leipheimer`s wife, Tyler H, Floyd, the corruption etc etc should never be forgotten.

It goes way beyond doping.

He`s like Nucky Thompson, only more evil. The puppet master.

If he wants to confess, he must also explain his actions towards these people, and not give us that cancer babble. It`s a beard, just like Chris C.

So I don`t think a full confession is ever going to happen. But a tactical one, maybe yes.

 

[spalco]

I disagree with OP, I would be shocked if Armstrong admits anything and apologises. I would be willing to bet a lot of money it's not going to happen.

 

[mountainrman]

My first post - so be gentle with me!

Does anyone recognise Lance from THIS?

As to a way back:

He could produce the definitive book, which unlike Tyler Hamilton's the proceeds are given to Livestrong, and a portion to the rest of his PR victims, so it is seen as less of "yet another earner", than actually trying to clean up his act.

. It would become a major best seller regardless of his present situation. And that would give him the chance to carefully craft a PR defence message - and write those apologies.

That speech could announce his intention.

He still has a massive weapon to use, which is dishing the dirt on UCI, who I think may well become the focus of just as big a storm, which could lead to corruption proceedings. Omerta is still live and well in UCI until someone like lance tells the truth. And Travis Tygart may use some discretion in reducing Lance's penalties.

Which brings to the crux of the problem if he owns up.
Lawsuits.

He clearly faces claims he would have to settle from The Sunday times $1m - SCA $7m LeMond and various other libel actions - probably out of court a few $mil. Even $10m-$20m is still small beer for a man who was earning $20M a year

Also potentially a Perjury prosecutin - but It seems to me the SOL has already run out on that, so may not? cannot? happen

The one that could actually sink him, and this is where his problem is - is if Nike want their career sponsorship back, if the contracts have the kind of clause SCA missed out, which makes all money conditional on being clean.

My guess is his lawyers are calculating his actual liability if he "comes clean"
In anticipation of such an owning up.


I have to say that one of the reasons I gave benefit of the doubt to Lance was I found Landis and Hamilton to be self serving worms, who whilst basically telling the truth would stitch lance up in the detail regardless, to use the "nazi" defence - "the team forced me!" so it is hard to prove whether their detail is fact.

I wonder how many others also feel that way, so an "alternative version" of the truth, that does not deny the basisc principle but rewrites the details may work for Lance. He cannot escape the "I doped" any more. But I suspect his role forcing others can be questioned.

Lance also has charisma. And - underneath it all I think he actually cares about Livestrong. When in the SCA trial videos, he says he was fully aware of the damage perjury could do to his charity , he was actually thinking "So owning up is a guaranteed killer, perjury has a percentage! of success"

So I expect an announcement - but an announcement of something that will happen, not the "message" itself. His Lawyers are probably working out how to stay solvent if he owns up to it all. I do not know this for a fact, but I suspect some assets have long since been put in the names of children and wives to protect them from this happening.

The lasting disappointment to me in Lance's career is in 2000 he had the presence in the peloton (without owning up to his own past) to say "this year the peloton rides clean" And for him as the boss to demand it - here is what we are all going to do to ensure it stays clean...and announce measures which would make cheating at best impractical. He had the presence to dictate such terms, and also the faith in his own ability to know he would probably win clean too, if on a level playing field. I think his own force of persnality could have been used for good back then.

 

[The Gnome]

I have no idea whether he will do the confession and personally I hope he doesn't...the longer he lies, the worse it is for the guy...so I hope he stands his ground...but if there is a "confession" I am sure every other word will be "CANCER"...which quite frankly would be pathetic...and idiots for the most part will buy it...

I would expect him to say something like: "after I survived cancer, I felt the need to win, not for myself, but for other cancer survivors...until that point, we had been treated distainfully by many...I wanted to show the world that we cancer survivors could do anything...and yes, I got a little overzealous and am sorry for that..."...somehow he will spin his craven, selfish hunger to win into a cancer crusade for the millions..."I doped for hope" ect...

 

[ChrisE]

I am loving the fact that we are getting intelligent posts without the running interference of the ignorant.
!

Yeah, including the ignorant that keep forgetting that an admission will likely reopen the Federal case.

If he admits, it should coincide with some type of plea deal.

 

[MartinGT]

IMO He has a mental illness and therefore will no apologies as he still thinks he hasnt done anything wrong.

 

[The Gnome]

Yeah, including the ignorant that keep forgetting that an admission will likely reopen the Federal case.

If he admits, it should coincide with some type of plea deal.

If he is planning a confession I would bet his lawyers are talking to the feds and trying to get reassurances...hopefully, they will play tough..."go ahead and confess...we will give you six months in jail...don't confess and we have all the evidence we need, will come after you and you will get three years...your call Lance"

I hope that would be the case if such a deal is being sought...this SOB needs to go to jail...

 

[onimod]

I'm tipping a stint in an institution and at least one DUI charge in the near future.
I'm not sure how a confession fits in.

 

[AntiGravityCycling]

Hah! A DUI! Brilliant. We can hope for some mug shots a la Randy Travis too!

 

[enrecul]

My first post - so be gentle with me!

Does anyone recognise Lance from THIS?

As to a way back:

He could produce the definitive book, which unlike Tyler Hamilton's the proceeds are given to Livestrong, and a portion to the rest of his PR victims, so it is seen as less of "yet another earner", than actually trying to clean up his act.

. It would become a major best seller regardless of his present situation. And that would give him the chance to carefully craft a PR defence message - and write those apologies.

That speech could announce his intention.

He still has a massive weapon to use, which is dishing the dirt on UCI, who I think may well become the focus of just as big a storm, which could lead to corruption proceedings. Omerta is still live and well in UCI until someone like lance tells the truth. And Travis Tygart may use some discretion in reducing Lance's penalties.

Which brings to the crux of the problem if he owns up.
Lawsuits.

He clearly faces claims he would have to settle from The Sunday times $1m - SCA $7m LeMond and various other libel actions - probably out of court a few $mil. Even $10m-$20m is still small beer for a man who was earning $20M a year

Also potentially a Perjury prosecutin - but It seems to me the SOL has already run out on that, so may not? cannot? happen

The one that could actually sink him, and this is where his problem is - is if Nike want their career sponsorship back, if the contracts have the kind of clause SCA missed out, which makes all money conditional on being clean.

My guess is his lawyers are calculating his actual liability if he "comes clean"
In anticipation of such an owning up.


I have to say that one of the reasons I gave benefit of the doubt to Lance was I found Landis and Hamilton to be self serving worms, who whilst basically telling the truth would stitch lance up in the detail regardless, to use the "nazi" defence - "the team forced me!" so it is hard to prove whether their detail is fact.

I wonder how many others also feel that way, so an "alternative version" of the truth, that does not deny the basisc principle but rewrites the details may work for Lance. He cannot escape the "I doped" any more. But I suspect his role forcing others can be questioned.

Lance also has charisma. And - underneath it all I think he actually cares about Livestrong. When in the SCA trial videos, he says he was fully aware of the damage perjury could do to his charity , he was actually thinking "So owning up is a guaranteed killer, perjury has a percentage! of success"

So I expect an announcement - but an announcement of something that will happen, not the "message" itself. His Lawyers are probably working out how to stay solvent if he owns up to it all. I do not know this for a fact, but I suspect some assets have long since been put in the names of children and wives to protect them from this happening.

The lasting disappointment to me in Lance's career is in 2000 he had the presence in the peloton (without owning up to his own past) to say "this year the peloton rides clean" And for him as the boss to demand it - here is what we are all going to do to ensure it stays clean...and announce measures which would make cheating at best impractical. He had the presence to dictate such terms, and also the faith in his own ability to know he would probably win clean too, if on a level playing field. I think his own force of persnality could have been used for good back then.

Holy **** dude that's so ON IT

 

[Cloxxki]

To which degree can one turn over assets to family members when there's about to become claims on them? That's like stealing all over again. Should such transfers not be subject to annulment by a judge?

 

[87'Start]

He should be wired up to a lie detector when and if he makes and apology!

 

[Angliru]

Agree with all. Turn cycling doper into Canonized Cancer Jesus. Halelujah.

I imagine it will be comparable to this infamous moment in media history:

 

[cineteq]

Still not sure if this is going to happen this way...

"Armstrong is the ultimate in realpolitik. He showed his hand when he walked away from the arbitration hearing, betting correctly that there was no way he would beat the testimony of his closest confidantes."

http://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/the-coming-confession/

 

[thehog]

Lance also has charisma. And - underneath it all I think he actually cares about Livestrong. When in the SCA trial videos, he says he was fully aware of the damage perjury could do to his charity , he was actually thinking "So owning up is a guaranteed killer, perjury has a percentage! of success"
.

Being “aware” means it was “premeditated” fraud and deceit rather than just following what the sport was already doing. That’s very very very serious. He could argue his way around the semantics of doping in a world of dope. But the SCA testimony proves he’s acutely aware of what he was doing: Premeditated fraud. That will kill him.

 

[FitSsikS]

How about a failed suicide attempt?

That would make all of the haters look soooo bad.



The expression: "It wouldn't kill you to apologize." may be incorrect in this case.

 

[on3m@n@rmy]

It's coming. Probably this weekend at the Livestrong anniversary party.

I think it will go like this:

1) He had no choice but to dope as a cyclist.
2) He could not admit because the people with cancer were counting on him.
3) He will now devote his remaining life to fighting cancer.

The interesting information will come in interviews afterward. I cannot see Armstrong not passing the blame around.

Well, I won't believe it until I see it. But now that his income is down serveral mils per year he has to find a way to replace it. Hey, he could write a book. But phase one is public admission... not a real apology... just admission. Then he can write a book like Tyler did.

Either that or he's still squirming on the beach tanking a brew.

 

[Bratam]

The lasting disappointment to me in Lance's career is in 2000 he had the presence in the peloton (without owning up to his own past) to say "this year the peloton rides clean" And for him as the boss to demand it - here is what we are all going to do to ensure it stays clean...and announce measures which would make cheating at best impractical. He had the presence to dictate such terms, and also the faith in his own ability to know he would probably win clean too, if on a level playing field. I think his own force of persnality could have been used for good back then.

No way he could have won clean. He couldn't even climb before he hired Ferrari. Highly unlikely he would have made a podium in those years. That is why he doped to the maximum.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

It's coming. Probably this weekend at the Livestrong anniversary party.

I think it will go like this:

1) He had no choice but to dope as a cyclist.
2) He could not admit because the people with cancer were counting on him.
3) He will now devote his remaining life to fighting cancer.

The interesting information will come in interviews afterward. I cannot see Armstrong not passing the blame around.

lance will definitely not admitt. he rather commits suicide. well hopes springs eternal

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

No way he could have won clean. He couldn't even climb before he hired Ferrari. Highly unlikely he would have made a podium in those years. That is why he doped to the maximum.

to armstrongs credit. the mid 90s were quite ridiculous with riders like riis riding around with 65% hematocrites, when lance came back. those days were gone

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

IMO He has a mental illness and therefore will no apologies as he still thinks he hasnt done anything wrong.

yeah he's a psychopath quite clearly

 

[spalco]

Still not sure if this is going to happen this way...

"Armstrong is the ultimate in realpolitik. He showed his hand when he walked away from the arbitration hearing, betting correctly that there was no way he would beat the testimony of his closest confidantes."

http://pvcycling.wordpress.com/2012/10/17/the-coming-confession/

That's a very good analysis, it would be excellent advice for the people around him imo, but I really don't think Armstrong has it in him to even pretend to show any remorse.

 

[Ryo Hazuki]

no way. lance lied for way too long, even days ago saying in twitter nothing affects him. he will never make it away from this with a good reputation wether he admitts or not. he wil be hated by all except his most hardcore/ignorant fans

 

[Bratam]

to armstrongs credit. the mid 90s were quite ridiculous with riders like riis riding around with 65% hematocrites, when lance came back. those days were gone

Oh yes, I realise that Riis and others were at 65% hematocrites. But in lance's day 50% was the maximum. Lance would likely have done 70% hematocrites if he could have got away with it.