Stage 4 - Where do you think Pogacar can ride away from this MVDP? last hill is only 800m long, and the actual hard part of 10-15% for 400m. So I don't see Pogacar riding away.Stage 4 that final hill is basically about as hard as yesterday's toughest hill but it's closer to the finish. I don't think it'll be Jorgenson tempo this time. Think it's more likely Pog tries to go solo, and if Vingegaard can follow I expect he'll cooperate.
Stage 6 I agree, but it's also shorter, so in a way it should almost be more like a Giro Vicenza style uphill sprint where Van Aert and Pedersen deleted the GC contenders. I do think it's a little harder more technical though
Stage 7, Mur de Bretagne I think is just too easy for Pogacar to drop Van der Poel especially as I think it's unlikely Pogacar attacks from the steep section anyway because he will be more worried about not getting countered by Vingegaard.
Stage 6 - Would indeed be a bit more difficult, but still. How he is riding at the moment. That last steep section is also only 700m long. On such short efforts I think MVDP can just push harder.
Stage 7 - Again, MVDP only needs to survive those first 800m, after that it's fine and I can't see them ride away in those last 1200m unless he's completely destroyed.