Teams & Riders The official Egan Bernal is the new Egan Bernal thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Reminds me of when I watched Narcos for the first time, one of those first episodes, when they were arriving to Bogota in the airplane, the DEA agent was showing his wife the jungle. I stopped watching right there. I could not continue anymore. Or every stupid movie that wants to depict most of Colombia like Cartagena weather or a jungle.

You want to have me believe you have actual cities and stuff? Come now.

 

[Jspear]

What do people think? I don't think he should have been able to sprint as well as some of these guys. I don't think there are any bad signs from this stage. Definitely could still podium.

 

[ppanther92]

What do people think? I don't think he should have been able to sprint as well as some of these guys. I don't think there are any bad signs from this stage. Definitely could still podium.

Yes, think so too. Not too indicative.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

What do people think? I don't think he should have been able to sprint as well as some of these guys. I don't think there are any bad signs from this stage. Definitely could still podium.

Has popular opinion swung so far that it is commonly accepted that Bernal is unlikely to podium, or is this an isolated view? I still think he is co-favorite with Roglic and will believe that until he gets dropped on a climb before the run-in.

 

[Jspear]

Has popular opinion swung so far that it is commonly accepted that Bernal is unlikely to podium, or is this an isolated view? I still think he is co-favorite with Roglic and will believe that until he gets dropped on a climb before the run-in.

Sorry no. I believe most think he will still podium. Him winning is what was in question from some. A mixture of what his overall form has looked like plus his back pain.

 

[JosephK]

Bernal looked OK today (Stage 4). Remember, last year he dropped a few seconds here and there the first couple weeks--only showed dominance in week 3. That said, the usual pattern for Sky/Ineos is to blow everyone out of the water on the first mountain top finish, so things are a bit different this year (okay, a bit similar to last year, except Ineos doesn't look to have a podium threat besides Bernal this year, so the team is clearly weaker).

 

[Gigs_98]

Bernal looked OK today (Stage 4). Remember, last year he dropped a few seconds here and there the first couple weeks--only showed dominance in week 3. That said, the usual pattern for Sky/Ineos is to blow everyone out of the water on the first mountain top finish, so things are a bit different this year (okay, a bit similar to last year, except Ineos doesn't look to have a podium threat besides Bernal this year, so the team is clearly weaker).

Wasn't the last time Ineos actually blew everyone out of the water on the first mtf back in 2015 though?

Anyway, I actually still don't like how he looks. Yeah, today was always gonna suit Roglic better but if you are the best climber of the field (and if he wants to win this Tour he pretty much has to be that) you don't look like you are about to lose contact every second.
Crucially I think the reason he didn't lose time today is because the pace didn't get as high as it did in the end a kilometer earlier. And that should not be Bernal's standard.

 

[Red Rick]

Wasn't the last time Ineos actually blew everyone out of the water on the first mtf back in 2015 though?

Anyway, I actually still don't like how he looks. Yeah, today was always gonna suit Roglic better but if you are the best climber of the field (and if he wants to win this Tour he pretty much has to be that) you don't look like you are about to lose contact every second.
Crucially I think the reason he didn't lose time today is because the pace didn't get as high as it did in the end a kilometer earlier. And that should not be Bernal's standard.

Last time they did it was the 2018 Tour. Thomas also took time in 2019, and they shredded the peloton to smithereens on stage 3 of the 2017 Vuelta.

Bernal didn't lose time because the final 500m were flat. That goes for a few more guys today.

I remember Contador at Montevergine but this does look way different. Martin attacked before it flattened out and actually got 3rd, so it's not like a climbing advantage had no benefit.

If anything Bernal's weakness might encourage Jumbo to drop the hammer completely on Thursday.

 

[Gigs_98]

Last time they did it was the 2018 Tour. Thomas also took time in 2019, and they shredded the peloton to smithereens on stage 3 of the 2017 Vuelta.

Bernal didn't lose time because the final 500m were flat. That goes for a few more guys today.

I remember Contador at Montevergine but this does look way different. Martin attacked before it flattened out and actually got 3rd, so it's not like a climbing advantage had no benefit.

If anything Bernal's weakness might encourage Jumbo to drop the hammer completely on Thursday.

I'm not sure whether they want to risk dropping Dumoulin though and I still think having two cards to play might come very handy later in the race. If Roglic actually goes on the attack on the Lusette it would be interesting to see what happens but if they only use Kuss to put the pressure on Bernal, I think they are a lot more likely to drop Dumoulin than Bernal.

 

[AlexNYC]

I think he looked OK, although I heard one of the NBC Peacock announcers mention that he seemed to be struggling to keep up. I think as long as his back holds up, he should be flying in the high mountains.

The question is if that will be enough to win this time. Roglic looks very strong as expected, but then you have Pinot, Quintana, Landa, and specially Pogacar, all of whom are looking extremely strong.

 

[Red Rick]

I'm not sure whether they want to risk dropping Dumoulin though and I still think having two cards to play might come very handy later in the race. If Roglic actually goes on the attack on the Lusette it would be interesting to see what happens but if they only use Kuss to put the pressure on Bernal, I think they are a lot more likely to drop Dumoulin than Bernal.

I think for the sake of Dumoulin they should just drive the flat like a madman.

 

[Moviestar]

We haven't seen the best Bernal today. He usually is pretty fast in these kind of (mountain)finishes, but he got outsprinted by a Martin, Quintana and a Lopez...

 

[Rollthedice]

I'm afraid that even a podium will be too much for Ineos this year.

 

[Red Rick]

I think he looked OK, although I heard one of the NBC Peacock announcers mention that he seemed to be struggling to keep up. I think as long as his back holds up, he should be flying in the high mountains.

The question is if that will be enough to win this time. Roglic looks very strong as expected, but then you have Pinot, Quintana, Landa, and specially Pogacar, all of whom are looking extremely strong.

I don't think Bernal is as much a pure climber as people think in that he's bad on shorter punchier mountain stages or hills, or that he needs high altitude to win. He's just not in his best form right now, and it's a really bad sign. He put 1'30 into the likes of Kruijswijk in the Alps last year, Roglic is gonna be a lot harder.

 

[slosada]

By watching Ain and Dauphine, I think every GC rider that is not in TJV is willing to just pass this week without losing time. The second week is to wear them down, and the last week is to attack.

 

[Nacho23]

He'll give a fight in the Alps. Don't rule him out already.

 

[Red Rick]

Team is gonna be a big issue if it continues like this. Bernal doesn't thrive if there's no team to rip the peloton to bunch, while Jumbo is probably best off riding a super chill pace through much of the Alps.

 

[SafeBet]

Team is gonna be a big issue if it continues like this. Bernal doesn't thrive if there's no team to rip the peloton to bunch, while Jumbo is probably best off riding a super chill pace through much of the Alps.

I'm confident Sivakov will come handy in the third week.

 

[DNP-Old]

Team is gonna be a big issue if it continues like this. Bernal doesn't thrive if there's no team to rip the peloton to bunch, while Jumbo is probably best off riding a super chill pace through much of the Alps.

Carapaz and Amador initially were meant to have their peak in the Giro, normally they should see a rise in performances. Sivakov is healing up nicely and tried more than once to join the break today, the coming three days should do him well. If Egan were to win the Tour, Roglic lost it yesterday.

 

[lenric]

Getting the feeling Roglic made a mistake yesterday when he didn't put time into Bernal.

 

[Red Rick]

Carapaz and Amador initially were meant to have their peak in the Giro, normally they should see a rise in performances. Sivakov is healing up nicely and tried more than once to join the break today, the coming three days should do him well. If Egan were to win the Tour, Roglic lost it yesterday.

Carapaz, sure. But he wasn't really better today than yesterday.

Amador is IMO not that great anymore and shouldn't normally make the Ineos TdF squad.

 

[Red Rick]

Anyone remember how hot it was at what stage in the Tour last year?

 

[Pricey_sky]

Anyone remember how hot it was at what stage in the Tour last year?

IIRC a heatwave around the 2nd rest day and into the last week. Then the storms arrived a few days later.

 

[Pricey_sky]

Getting the feeling Roglic made a mistake yesterday when he didn't put time into Bernal.

I agree, he’s definitely getting stronger. He needs big days on Colombier and Meribel.

 

[Red Rick]

Think if he doesn't drop Roglic on GC it's gonna be nearly impossible