SpartacusRox said:
Cobbles generally suit stronger, more powerful riders such as Boonen, FC, O'Grady. But more important I think is positioning. Lance is a better strategic rider than AC who sometimes gets caught riding a bit far back in the bunch, Armstrong is always where he needs to be to maximise his chances of being on the right side of a break. Personally I don't think that will be an issue this year as Vino will ensure that AC is where he needs to be and there are not enough cobbles to be the fatigue factor they are in the PR.
The highlighted above is (IMO) exactly it for St 3.
I have read some posters saying Saxo,TRS,QS,Sky will attack - but I believe it is going to be a drag race as all the GC riders will mark each other.
However there is only so much space on the road - I do believe at least one GC rider aspirations will end on that stage - as to who, probably someone on a weaker team and by that I mean someone who cannot have 2-3 riders with them at that start of the 1st section of pave.
It will be an exciting day - but there is an element of (bad) luck also - which IMO is not the way to decide a TdF - but as you pointed out the key is positioning, the better your position the better your luck.