The Race for Green: The Points Classification.

[movingtarget]

Cavendish as long as he survives the mountains. Pettachi for second. Gilbert won't win enough points in the bunch sprints but could win a stage or two.

 

[Karl Max]

I doubt it. Hushovd doesn't have Renshaw's experience at lead-outs (and probably not even his speed these days) and Farrar obviously doesn't have Cav's speed.

I think the best Farrar can hope for would be to win a stage that Cav messes up (he usually has one). I don't believe he has the ability to win intermediate points without sacrificing his ability to feature highly in the sprints, so I'd be amazed if he comes close to green. Would still be nice to see him win one stage and dedicate it to WW though.

Cav never win all the sprints even if he wins many. I think Hushovd got more speed than Renshaw and he did a perfect lead out on the stage Farrar won in Tirreno. And not so perfect the day after, but I think Hushovd at least can help Farrar win a stage. Last year tour Hushovds sprinting was terrible, but he did not show is best there cause he had a broken collarbone in may and did not have perfect preparation for the tour. If Farrar is lucky he can be in the battle for green, but I still doubt it even though I hope it. I think Cav is to strong.

 

[Nick C.]

I went with Cav. The team has no other purpose. Despite what poor Tony Martin may say re: GC he will be doing leadout duty.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

I went with Cav. The team has no other purpose. Despite what poor Tony Martin may say re: GC he will be doing leadout duty.

In HTC, you do both. They had the fricking maillot jaune on leadout duty in 2008. Tony will have to do leadouts, regardless - but he could still do a good GC if the rest of the racing is conservative enough not to take advantage of that.

 

[Nick C.]

In HTC, you do both. They had the fricking maillot jaune on leadout duty in 2008. Tony will have to do leadouts, regardless - but he could still do a good GC if the rest of the racing is conservative enough not to take advantage of that.

The poor guy always seems exhausted by the time the GC battle heats up. I'm assuming/hoping his mountain attacks drop off the back moves in the Dauphine were just experiments and form tests rather than a true reflection of his abilities in the mountains.

 

[Libertine Seguros]

He wouldn't be the first nor the last rider to be excellent over shorter races or on more TT-biased races without being able to truly climb with the best.

Even if his Tour is a dismal failure (depending on where you set the bar. I wouldn't be surprised to see him in the 11th-15th kind of area, though he may need to do a Ventoux (or LuLu in stage 9 last year, which with 3 teammates to help him along, HTC would never entertain, they need people to keep Cav inside the time limit on that kind of stage) for that) he's still had a really, really good season. The criticism he gets is partly because of his 'only the Tour matters' quotes, partly (at least for me) because he rides for the most joyless team in the péloton, but mostly because Bavarianrider has made us all sick of hearing about him.

 

[Nick C.]

No nothing wrong with that at all. Look he could be poor Bert Grabsch who at least had a great day the one year Cancellara didn't contest the World's TT, but otherwise spends (or so they say) dozens of Ks on the front day after day after day.

 

[Timmy-loves-Rabo]

Tom. Boonen.

no way.
Tomekke is awesome, but he hasn't looked like a green jersey contendor for a long time.

 

[El Pistolero]

no way.
Tomekke is awesome, but he hasn't looked like a green jersey contendor for a long time.

2008 not allowed to start
2009 only narrowly allowed to start and got sick
2010 didn't start

You're right that there's no way he can win it, but a bit unfair as he hasn't had a lot of luck at the Tour. Let's also not forget he was 6 months out last season. I think he'll be better again next year after more miles in his legs.

 

[Mambo95]

2008 not allowed to start
2009 only narrowly allowed to start and got sick
2010 didn't start

You're right that there's no way he can win it, but a bit unfair as he hasn't had a lot of luck at the Tour. Let's also not forget he was 6 months out last season. I think he'll be better again next year after more miles in his legs.

But he only gets involved with bunch sprints these days if Lefevre puts a gun to his head - like before Gent-Wevelgem. He's stated on many occasions that he doesn't want to do them. It's not exactly GJ material.

 

[Altitude]

I doubt that it will go to a breakaway specialist because, unlike the polka-dot jersey, the amount of points that one can get before tghe finish will always be less than the points available at the finish. The KOM jersey is often won when someone does a day-long break where they capture max points up every climb; however, in the points competition, there would only be one opportunity per stage to score points.

Look at the recent winners of the Polka dot jersey:

2005 - Rasmussen
2006 - Rasmussen
2007 - Soler
2008 - Kohl
2009 - Pellizotti

Virenque a bunch of times before them. All these guys are/were legitimate climbers, among the best in the world. The only real fluke in recent tours was last year. Everyone always says the KOM is a joke but clearly it does well in rewarding the top climbers most of the time.