Will be an really interesting decision for Red-Bull-Bora, who will be their GC leader in the TDF. Not sure whether Roglic would have been able to match Lipowitz' TT result today. Maybe a double leadership would be smart?
- Jun 30, 2022
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I think Roglič could have beaten this TT performance. Roglič still seems like the stronger of the two, but looking at Roglič‘s statistics, Lipowitz shouldn‘t drop out of GC prematurely.
- Jul 16, 2015
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When racing against Vingegeaard and Pog, there's no such thing as 'not dropping out of GC prematurely".
We're talking about riding for placements, aka top 5, or in Lipowitz' case top 10. Rog has a higher ceiling of course and can do a super performance. That open up prospects (for the podium) if he's in good shape.
But it's not like Lipowitz can choose to stay in the game when we're talking about two mutants, i.e. one of which put nearly 20 minutes into the guy who finished 4th in last year's Tour. So Red Bull Bora and Lipowitz can hardly make any sort of tactical decision here to "keep a second guy in contention".
Contention for what? Suckwheeling guys like Almeida and Jorgenson as long as possible? The Tour isn't the Vuelta. The gaps will be humongous again.
- Mar 15, 2022
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Sure.
Based on Rogla's ITT performance at the Giro, he would be half a minute ahead of Lipo today.
- Apr 3, 2009
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Not sure I'm buying that about the result. Feel like Rog woulda been right there, close to Vingo.
That said, fair question of why not have Lipo as a backup protected rider. More threats are more threats, until the road shows he's not there.
well for podium to begin with. Not given beforhand that the two favorites for win and the one favorite for 3rd will get through the Tour without any issue. A strong double leadership might not be the worst idea for Bora.
- Jan 22, 2010
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I don't think Bora need a GC result that isnt at least the podium. They are under no threat of relegation. They should only ride for glory.
So that means in the TdF they should be stage hunting.
However maybe those sponsors thing a 6th place from Lipo, 10 minutes behind yellow, is worth something.
So that means in the TdF they should be stage hunting.
However maybe those sponsors thing a 6th place from Lipo, 10 minutes behind yellow, is worth something.
They are putting a lot of thought into TTing lately and results do show, Rogla at Giro and Lipo at Dauphiné, stellar performances. At the Tour i feel that leadership dilemmas will get resolved early on and i feel that suggestion, about going stage hunting, that is out of touch with reality. First of all nobody really does stage hunting at the Tour anymore, beyond sprinters, van Aert and minor teams. It just doesn't work anymore and on top of that if such people argue Rogla is top 5 and Lipo top 10 GC contender. And then they say if i would be a DS i would go stage hunting, just beyond.
Hopefully not only Lipo but some other team members will be in great form, usage of satellite riders will likely prove to be rather crucial, winning this Tour edition. Predominant strategy IMHO should be mitigation and keeping Rogla as fresh as possible, deep into the race. We'll see.
Hopefully not only Lipo but some other team members will be in great form, usage of satellite riders will likely prove to be rather crucial, winning this Tour edition. Predominant strategy IMHO should be mitigation and keeping Rogla as fresh as possible, deep into the race. We'll see.
- Sep 12, 2022
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Roglic would be better. He would probably be closer to Vingegaard than Pogacar, but somewhere between them. Lipowitz doesn't deserve double leadership, and not to mention that Roglic should be much better at the TDF than in the Giro.
- Feb 20, 2012
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Roglic, who got 2nd in the Giro TT and most likely didn't beat Tarling because of minute men and changing wind conditions? That Roglic?
I can understand thinking he's not as good as he used to be, but there's a big gap between not being the dominant hilly TTer anymore and getting beat by Lipowitz. Even in his super trash WC ITT where he was pubcrawling in the final flat section he lost less time per minute than Lipowitz yesterday
Most likely range would be between 15 and 30 seconds back to Evenepoel. It would suit him more if it were more technical.
I can understand thinking he's not as good as he used to be, but there's a big gap between not being the dominant hilly TTer anymore and getting beat by Lipowitz. Even in his super trash WC ITT where he was pubcrawling in the final flat section he lost less time per minute than Lipowitz yesterday
Most likely range would be between 15 and 30 seconds back to Evenepoel. It would suit him more if it were more technical.
- Jul 16, 2015
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The traditional boom/bust cycle of Rog is in full swing now. We've seen it before, year after year.
In this 2025 edition, the pre-Giro hype has collapsed and he's now no better than Lipowitz.
As for the man himself, I do believe he's now in Tignes (a story update from Lora on Instagram showed she's there today). So Rog will start his altitude training for the Tour (and obviously that means no Tour de Suisse).
Let's hope he's in great shape next month.
In this 2025 edition, the pre-Giro hype has collapsed and he's now no better than Lipowitz.
As for the man himself, I do believe he's now in Tignes (a story update from Lora on Instagram showed she's there today). So Rog will start his altitude training for the Tour (and obviously that means no Tour de Suisse).
Let's hope he's in great shape next month.
Lipo doing great IMHO is only a good sign for the Tour, especially TT. I am kinda hoping for even more riders to step up. Weak team is something Rogla won't benefit from either way. And besides Rogličes signature move was stomp, the fact Rogla doesn't utilise this element so much in GTs anymore, that is not necessarily a bad thing. If we take stage 11 from Tour 2024 as a reference point. If Rogla and the team added some extra to that, then we have not much to worry about, then they will do fine.
Yes, it doesn't make sense to think that Roglic couldn't have clearly beaten Lipo's time yesterday. He's coming off a near-beating of Tarling in a flat time trial at The Giro.
Furthermore, last year he clearly beat a great Jorgenson in the Dauphiné and Tour de France time trials. His losses to Remco in terms of seconds per km were very similar to Jonas's yesterday, and he actually beat the Dane in the Tour de France TT. Moreover RB Bora seems to have improved its setup quite a bit since then (although Visma has too).
In other words, both based on feelings and data analysis, it's quite reasonable to think that Roglic would have had a time trial quite similar to Vingegaard's.
In fact, yerterday perfomance wasn´t even the 100% potential of Lipo as time trialist IMO, I believe than without breakawy efforts he can be 10-15 seconds better than that, for me he has the potential to be in the Jorgenson/Alemeida level in that regard.
Furthermore, last year he clearly beat a great Jorgenson in the Dauphiné and Tour de France time trials. His losses to Remco in terms of seconds per km were very similar to Jonas's yesterday, and he actually beat the Dane in the Tour de France TT. Moreover RB Bora seems to have improved its setup quite a bit since then (although Visma has too).
In other words, both based on feelings and data analysis, it's quite reasonable to think that Roglic would have had a time trial quite similar to Vingegaard's.
In fact, yerterday perfomance wasn´t even the 100% potential of Lipo as time trialist IMO, I believe than without breakawy efforts he can be 10-15 seconds better than that, for me he has the potential to be in the Jorgenson/Alemeida level in that regard.
It makes no sense to send Lipowitz to the tour as captain. The team wants to build him up slowly. The pressure at the Tour is immense. Especially as he has the Dauphine as the highlight of the season and has therefore planned his form for now and not the Tour. Officially, it will only be decided after the Dauphine whether he will ride the Tour. But I assume that he will.
I would take Roglic as captain. But I would also protect Lipo a bit and if Roglic shows weaknesses consider not keeping him waiting. Vlasov will then have to fill that role.
I'm curious to see which 8 riders will be sent. Is Martinez back in form or will he be replaced? Tratnik and van Poppel should be clear. With van Poppel I hope that he can ride for a result in the numerous sprint stages - and is not only there to protect Roglic. Or will even Meeus be allowed to join him?
Who else then? Maybe Van Gils, Fisher-black?
I would take Roglic as captain. But I would also protect Lipo a bit and if Roglic shows weaknesses consider not keeping him waiting. Vlasov will then have to fill that role.
I'm curious to see which 8 riders will be sent. Is Martinez back in form or will he be replaced? Tratnik and van Poppel should be clear. With van Poppel I hope that he can ride for a result in the numerous sprint stages - and is not only there to protect Roglic. Or will even Meeus be allowed to join him?
Who else then? Maybe Van Gils, Fisher-black?
- Apr 10, 2019
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- Feb 20, 2012
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It all depends on what you mean by "Lipowitz 2nd leader". And if you by that mean keep him up in GC before the race gets to the Pyrenees while using all the domestiques to keep Roglic safe, then that makes sense.
- Apr 13, 2021
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He's the next ullrich!!!!!! Free the Lippipotamus
- Apr 10, 2019
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They do that to every promising rider after the junior ranks...
- Mar 15, 2022
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He was already spotted by an amateur cyclist near Tignes a few days ago.
Agree that Roglic still has the higher ceiling than Lipowitz.
But the odds for a Roglic DNF in a GT are higher than 50%, if you take the past 3-4- years, statistically. So what are the overall odds that Roglic finishes TDF in front of Lipowitz?
But the odds for a Roglic DNF in a GT are higher than 50%, if you take the past 3-4- years, statistically. So what are the overall odds that Roglic finishes TDF in front of Lipowitz?
- Jun 30, 2022
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Good question, but we don‘t know if Lipowitz can be crash-prone as well. He‘s a little bit to the outside of the danger zone in the current fights for position at the Dauphiné, but he‘s not exceptionally positioned either.
Hopefully for GC to take precedence, chances to win a stage at Tour, sprinting, without dedicated team support are slim anyway. Chances of your GC leader to crash in the bunch whilst doing that, much higher.
Statistically it's 5/5, win or to DNF. Finishing GT, for that chances are statistically much higher.
- Aug 29, 2009
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without a real podium contender, they should definitely send Meeus to the Tour, think.
German Eurosport had some funny takes today about Lipo being better than Roglic now, deserving a full team (= no sprinter) at the Tour etc - but without pressure. That just not how things work, though. Either set a proper goal (podium), or bring stage hunters.
In his yearly interview Danny van Poppel ones again complains about not having a top sprinter to lead out. He suggest to go to the Tour with Meeus. But at the moment its uncertain.
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