- Apr 3, 2009
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- Aug 29, 2009
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The Giro-Tour double hasn't become easier just because Pogacar managed to combine both. I would be very surprised if it's going to work out for him at all.
- May 29, 2019
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I read this social media attempts more like strong suggestions to either send Lipo with full team support and no sprinter and no real expectations to the Tour OR if not doing that to sabotage the team on where only ones imagination is the limit. Snap out of it, not going to happen.
Rogla will be sent to the Tour 2025 with full team support and no sprinter and expectations to win the overall will be rather high, just cope with it.
Rogla will be sent to the Tour 2025 with full team support and no sprinter and expectations to win the overall will be rather high, just cope with it.
- Apr 3, 2009
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- Mar 19, 2009
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By whom though? Red Bull, the public (certainly not), forum members, twitter users or some rando on the street?
- Aug 29, 2009
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well, realistically I see three guys competing for the three top spots, and Roglic not as one of them. Where does being a contender start?
- May 29, 2019
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This things change fast. In relation to as you say the public, forum members, twitter users or some rando on the street.
As for Rogla and Red Bull - Bora - Hansgrohe, main objective is clear, or why do you reckon they are investing so much into evolving and to be better. For the heck of it? To go stage hunting at the Tour without any expectations involved whatsoever?
Purely out of curiosity, which three?
- Jun 15, 2021
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Tour odds as of today. Pog's have dropped since the start of the Dauphine, but is still the slight favorite. Vingegaards has risen. Roglic is 25 to 1 (~4% to win), Lipowitz is 50 to 1 (~2% to win).
BTW, Simon Yates odds before the Giro were 35 to 1 ... so it does happen.
BTW, Simon Yates odds before the Giro were 35 to 1 ... so it does happen.
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- Apr 3, 2009
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It's subjective of course, all of this, so I don't have a definitive answer. And I would agree he's not who I'd pick for the podium, if I had to.
It just jumped out to me to read that someone thinks he's not a real podium contender. I think realistically, he's not strong enough to win, but I can see many, many scenarios where he's on the podium. Anyone else crashes out, someone has a bad day, he shows up stronger than people expect...these all seem quite possible or even likely scenarios.
If you see it differently, no worries.
Hard to imagine this is a serious question.
- May 29, 2019
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You wouldn't believe on how much iffy moments could be avoided if people wouldn't be so afraid to ask.
- May 29, 2019
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Tour odds as of today. Pog's have dropped since the start of the Dauphine, but is still the slight favorite. Vingegaards has risen. Roglic is 25 to 1 (~4% to win), Lipowitz is 50 to 1 (~2% to win).
So what does it say, that there is a high chance for this to stay fixed going into week 3? As history teaches us?
- Feb 20, 2012
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Wrong question.
The question is about the expected value. Roglic when he doesn't crash out is a lock for top 4, most likely a battle for 3rd. Lipowitz is like random Zubeldia top 10 place.
- May 29, 2019
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I mean the signs are there, won a GT half a year back, did best ITTs among favourites at Giro ... All the rather standard signs to be worried.
- Jun 15, 2021
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I think what it says is as of today, this is what the betting public predicts will happen. (With some fanboys betting on their guy and other gamblers trying to make money with no preference who actually wins.) My guess is the market would be considered fairly "efficient" at this juncture.
A week ago Vinge's and Remco's odds were much worse but have shortened with their performances so far at the Dauphine. Pogachar's odds have drifted. Will there be a change depending on who wins the Dauphine? I am sure there will.
BTW, here were the odds at the start of the Giro, so things obviously do change.
- Primož Roglič: +150 (40% implied probability)
- Juan Ayuso: +175 (36.4% implied probability)
- Adam Yates: +550 (15.4% implied probability)
Simon Yates was grouped with other outsiders like Richard Carapaz and Egan Bernal, all near +3300
- May 29, 2019
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@FroomeWagon
Thanks for including the Giro odds too. I still remember and find it fond, the poll we did on this forum going into the Giro.
Thanks for including the Giro odds too. I still remember and find it fond, the poll we did on this forum going into the Giro.
- Mar 19, 2009
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I think they want to get the best possible result, given the circumstances. So I think they have three major expectations for Roglic for the Tour. Win a stage, finish the race, get on the podium. That's it. I don't think they expect him to win the Tour, because of the existence of Pogacar and Vingegaard. They are not fools, they know they need Pogacar and Vingegaard, and if they are unlucky also Remco, all to basically crash out or get sick so the Tour can be won. All this while Rogla hasn't finished a Tour since his second place in 2020, while also having a DNF in 50% of his last 10 GTs.
- Aug 29, 2009
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no no, I totally agree, a lot of things can happen. The Yates example was brought up already.
Question is, if it it's reason enough to send a team totally designated to that goal. Visma at the Giro also included Kooij etc, and although van Aert was of crucial help in the end, most of the race he did his own thing as well.
- Mar 15, 2022
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Statistically, Lipowitz finished 50% of his GTs. Not very reliable either...
- May 29, 2019
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Only that i see. Well, they might as well win the thing then. I assume nobody to complain much about it after.
Finishing those five times, instead of DNF, where do you reckon Rogla would and up placing. Top 10?
It's not really such a tough question in the first place, winning sprint stages or stages from breakaway, that is a pipe dream anyway. So sending finest of the finest and to work with that as a coherent team, it's not like any other realistic option to exist.
- May 29, 2019
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Rogla in the team, that automatically prevents them doing silly things, like trying to win a stage from a breakaway, or sprinting, possibly going to the Tour with a couple of youngsters, on where each doing their own thing.
Rogla would never allow for it, such foolish waste of team and riders. If they want to win a stage, sprinting, on top of winning the overall, they know what that takes, nurture your sprinter and position him properly, as close to the finish line as possible. Pure basics. High maintenance high results.
Rogla would never allow for it, such foolish waste of team and riders. If they want to win a stage, sprinting, on top of winning the overall, they know what that takes, nurture your sprinter and position him properly, as close to the finish line as possible. Pure basics. High maintenance high results.
- Apr 3, 2009
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I don't see why Bora wouldn't send a team dedicated to Roglič at the Tour, personally. Why have him on the team otherwise? This is why they got him. He's got great chances to win stages and a fairly good chance to podium. Small chance to win, depending on how things go, but better than most teams.
- Jan 22, 2010
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Of course that is why they signed Roglic. I thought it a great move at the time. And they have reaped some great results.
But his performance in the Giro, this year, and his history of not finishing the tour the last three attempts lead me to think that a) he probably won't finish the tour and b) if he does finish the tour it probably would not be on the podium.
Most teams would be happy with a top 10 gc finish. Would Bora?
- Apr 3, 2009
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I’m not here to suggest he doesn’t crash a lot. He obviously does.
But upright he’s got a good shot to podium the Tour, and almost surely lands top 5. Some small chance to win. Serious chance to win a stage or more.. All better than top 10 and something most teams would love to have.
I believe I read somewhere on this forum that if Rog finishes a GT, he podiums (at least in the last 5 years). That's good enough odds to continue to build a team around him.
- Jul 7, 2013
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Tour odds as of today. Pog's have dropped since the start of the Dauphine, but is still the slight favorite. Vingegaards has risen. Roglic is 25 to 1 (~4% to win), Lipowitz is 50 to 1 (~2% to win).
BTW, Simon Yates odds before the Giro were 35 to 1 ... so it does happen.
The odds changed quite quickly after the TT. If Vingo prevails in the mountains he can even become #1 favourite ahead of the Tour.
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