Wild take. It's pretty clearly IMO still
right now:
- Roglic - would have been 5th or better this year despite the Giro crashes and infection with terrible prep; 2024 Vuelta win in dominating fashion, Giro 2023 winner + more or less tied for Vuelta win)
- Remco - has the same issue with crashes and positioning as Roglic but also has shown greater reliance on perfect prep and exposure to bad days, which is why he has 0 wins during that same time period
- Lipo - 3rd but further back than Remco the year before, beaten by Roglic on 3/6 climbs and 1/2 ITTs despite Roglic having infinitely worse prep, no GT wins, no dominating, winning performances like Rog and Rem
- Pellizari - has shown promise but has not delivered anything close to the above
Now I think it's worth investing in #s 2-4, also in that order, due to age and progression. My guess is Remco is pretty close to his maximum potential, Lipowitz a bit more unknown, Pellizari just coming into his own. But everyone is on their own development curve.
Unless the data shows that Roglic was clearly significantly worse in February, March, April this year
before his Giro crashes than last year, I would not demote him based on a crash that was not his fault. He is still the closest thing to a sure thing in GTs they have.