Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The last ITT was a bit of a red flag though. He lost time between every timestop except the last one. While in the first ITT he only lost time during the downhill section.

He lost the most time in the downhill also in the 2nd TT. So him not doing extensive recons this year either seems like a genius decision.

I do think Rick meant not just absolute numbers (which vary due to other things we cant mention) but his relative performance vs the rest of the competition which was dominant and quite consistent. I think he can get better but there was never a stage when I thought: "he lost minutes here due to shallow base"

Then what is even the point of his argument? IIRC he has made similar claims before regarding this topic. It sure looks like he is saying that Evenepoel would not have been performing better had he had a better preperation (without crashing, without rehab, without sudden weight increase (due to not training) and crash course weight drop between Dauphiné and TDF, while simply continuing the planned training/preparation). If he means Evenepoel might not have been able to get a better result (2nd or 1st) then i don't think anybody has made that claim, other than "we don't know how much better he might have been".

 

[Red Rick]

The last ITT was a bit of a red flag though. He lost time between every timestop except the last one. While in the first ITT he only lost time during the downhill section.

Well there's 0 surprise there considering the final split was the only flat section and the others where all either uphill, downhill or both.

 

[Oldman]

We were talking about last year (2024). That his preparation for TDF was ***, which showed in 2 ways:
1. His performance in Dauphine where he was beaten by riders he should easily beat
2. His performance in 3rd week of the TDF, which showed his base was lower and he wasn't able to perform as well as in the first two weeks of the TDF. You saw the same with Vingegaard. The amount of effort accumulated over all those days was too much for them, which resulted in weaker performances later in the Tour. Because their prep wasn't as it should be, too rushed.

And this year appears to be a repeat of rushing to race before form is deep enough.

 

[Berniece]

Well there's 0 surprise there considering the final split was the only flat section and the others where all either uphill, downhill or both.

Then why didn’t he lose time uphill in the first ITT?

 

[KoopaCycling]

Strange to say but i can't say that Remco performing less good in the third of last year TdF is truly cause of lack of prep.
There is just not enought data imo to say that .We do know Remco tends to be strong early on after training. The fact that we still don't have enough data is strange considering his age. But Every GT has it's tale. Same for the 1 week stage races which some people seem to knock him for (despite valid reasons for most failures), for not having won one yet (as mentioned in a previous post).

-First Giro, came back to soon after crash, and crashed several times in the giro as well.
-First vuelta first proper GT but crashed midway and performed less in the 2nd week. Bounced back in the third week, but no longer had to face Roglic which probably removed some stress.
- 2nd Giro left early due to covid.
- 2nd Vuelta, had a complete offday in week 2 (i think it was), then went for the polka dots.
- First Tour, had to rush back after crash. Performed better than expected early on. He and Vingegaard could not keep up with Pogacar the more the tour progressed. But not sure it's cause of proper base or cause Pogacar is just that dude.

So really I still have no clue after all these years how good evenepoel can truly be in a GT. proper foundation and no crashing/illness during the GT. Closest we got was the Tour, and he performed well there. Probably his best GT performance to date. We say he should be more prepared for this year Tour. But even though the time was more limited last year, i would say this year crash and consequence are far more severe. What we saw so far is reason for hope (for a strong performance).

 

[Red Rick]

Then why didn’t he lose time uphill in the first ITT?

Because it was less uphill than in the Nice ITT. 6km section, only 1.5 km of which reasonably steep, and 40 kph average for that section. In Nice the uphill section was 33 kph average, the 2nd section was 40 kph average but included a downhill and a much steeper bit of climbing.

It's also an ITT after 2 mountain stages.

 

[peterfin]

Remco Evenepoel versus Tadej Pogačar

Head to head career results between Remco Evenepoel and Tadej PogaÄar. The overal score is 37.2% for Remco Evenepoel versus 62.8% for Tadej PogaÄar. A comparison on same race results, time trial points and the points per age.

www.procyclingstats.com

Interesting how both have a similar PCS points per age graph. The three dips correspond with Evenepoel's injuries and his bridge dive had a serious impact. The last (minor) dip in Pogacar's result corresponds to his wrist injury. However, I cannot see Remco following Pogacar's steep rise the coming months. It can't happen anyway without Pogacar coming down.

 

[Berniece]

It's also an ITT after 2 mountain stages.

Indeed, in the third week. Which would explain a worse performance since his preparation was rushed.

 

[Rou]

I took a quick look at Remco's number of race days in the past few years.
2022 - 68 race days
2023 - 67 race days
2024 - 64 race days (with a crash)
He is currently at 10 race days.
I see it as entirely possible that he does the Vuelta this year after the TDF and in my opinion he has a realistic chance to win.

 

[KoopaCycling]

I took a quick look at Remco's number of race days in the past few years.
2022 - 68 race days
2023 - 67 race days
2024 - 64 race days (with a crash)
He is currently at 10 race days.
I see it as entirely possible that he does the Vuelta this year after the TDF and in my opinion he has a realistic chance to win.

If he does do the vuelta he should ride it as training. i do not think he should make the vuelta his late summer/fall goal. He should target UECC and Lombardi imo.

 

[HashRouge]

He’s definitely leaving but I can also see it happening at the end of this season. If they get enough money for it, problem is he really wants to go to Bora, and that isn’t happening with Roglic there.

I feel like there's a good chance he'll go this year - it's the last chance for Quickstep to make some money from him, isn't it? I feel the same about Almeida, not impossible he leaves UAE this year as his contract is up end of 2026. If he wants to have a go at leading at the Tour while he's at his peak, he should go elsewhere.

 

[Berniece]

I feel like there's a good chance he'll go this year - it's the last chance for Quickstep to make some money from him, isn't it? I feel the same about Almeida, not impossible he leaves UAE this year as his contract is up end of 2026. If he wants to have a go at leading at the Tour while he's at his peak, he should go elsewhere.

It is, and personally I don’t want to see him go to Ineos. I was wondering why he would want to, instead of Bora. I think it’s because he doesn’t realise his preferred staff members that would join him to Ineos aren’t good for him and able to get the best out of him. Pelgrim and Lodewyck will join him if he moves so nothing really changes except his team mates and the amount of money he earns.

 

[Red Rick]

I took a quick look at Remco's number of race days in the past few years.
2022 - 68 race days
2023 - 67 race days
2024 - 64 race days (with a crash)
He is currently at 10 race days.
I see it as entirely possible that he does the Vuelta this year after the TDF and in my opinion he has a realistic chance to win.

If Pogacar or Vingegaard show up, it's not a realistic chance. And he has the lowest floor of the top guys, he decompresses really hard after a main target so I'm not that sure he can do a great GC at the Vuelta after a hard Tour.

If he does do the vuelta he should ride it as training. i do not think he should make the vuelta his late summer/fall goal. He should target UECC and Lombardi imo.

Euros as main target for the fall is just small rider mentality. It's a good hangover cure after the WC, that's about it.

 

[HashRouge]

It is, and personally I don’t want to see him go to Ineos. I was wondering why he would want to, instead of Bora. I think it’s because he doesn’t realise his preferred staff members that would join him to Ineos aren’t good for him and able to get the best out of him. Pelgrim and Lodewyck will join him if he moves so nothing really changes except his team mates and the amount of money he earns.

I suppose the bonus is that Ineos would be all in on supporting him at the Tour, whereas with Red Bull it depends what happens with Roglic. The downside I guess is that Ineos seems to be a team in flux at the moment and it's a little bit hard to tell what direction the team will go in over the next few years. They do have a few not quite top tier GC riders who might be persuaded to switch to a support role - how would we feel about Remco at the Tour with Bernal and Arensman as domestiques?

 

[hayneplane]

If Pogacar or Vingegaard show up, it's not a realistic chance. And he has the lowest floor of the top guys, he decompresses really hard after a main target so I'm not that sure he can do a great GC at the Vuelta after a hard Tour.


Euros as main target for the fall is just small rider mentality. It's a good hangover cure after the WC, that's about it.

On its own merit I would agree but I think there is a difference for Remco in that it would complete a full sweep of all the jerseys a rider can win in their national kit.

 

[KoopaCycling]

If Pogacar or Vingegaard show up, it's not a realistic chance. And he has the lowest floor of the top guys, he decompresses really hard after a main target so I'm not that sure he can do a great GC at the Vuelta after a hard Tour.


Euros as main target for the fall is just small rider mentality. It's a good hangover cure after the WC, that's about it.

I disagree, simply cause Remco achieving that would be historic.

-National RR +TT
-Olympic RR + TT
-World RR + TT
- Euro TT

all that's left is the RR, and this years parcours should suit him well.

 

[veganrob]

If he does do the vuelta he should ride it as training. i do not think he should make the vuelta his late summer/fall goal. He should target UECC and Lombardi imo.

Doesn't make sense he would go in the Vuelta without intention of winning.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Doesn't make sense he would go in the Vuelta without intention of winning.

Why not. Van der Poel used the Tour to prep himself for his goals that came right after. WC at that street circuit 2 years ago i think.

Plenty of racers have used the Vuelta to get ready for WC in the past.

Remco has shown the willingness to use races to get into shape in the past. Not everyone needs to race like Pogacar and only show up at races with the intention to win.

 

[peterfin]

If Pogacar or Vingegaard show up, it's not a realistic chance. And he has the lowest floor of the top guys, he decompresses really hard after a main target so I'm not that sure he can do a great GC at the Vuelta after a hard Tour.


Euros as main target for the fall is just small rider mentality. It's a good hangover cure after the WC, that's about it.

I don't think he decompresses hard if he has a next target in mind. He had WC TT bronze and was WC RR champion after his Vuelta win and OC TT + OC RR champion after his 3rd spot in the TDF. Due to his limited schedule sofar, he could benefit from a hard TdF and be really top at the Vuelta. The top riders get better after that 3 week effort, not worse, and he is one of them.

 

[veganrob]

Why not. Van der Poel used the Tour to prep himself for his goals that came right after. WC at that street circuit 2 years ago i think.

Plenty of racers have used the Vuelta to get ready for WC in the past.

Remco has shown the willingness to use races to get into shape in the past. Not everyone needs to race like Pogacar and only show up at races with the intention to win.

The difference for me is that Remco might be favorite to win Vuelta. VanderPoel and others were not a serious threat in GC

 

[Red Rick]

I disagree, simply cause Remco achieving that would be historic.

-National RR +TT
-Olympic RR + TT
-World RR + TT
- Euro TT

all that's left is the RR, and this years parcours should suit him well.

I don't disagree it's a nice statistic. I disagree with making it the main target when that implies skipping the WC the week before.

 

[Andre]

I feel like there's a good chance he'll go this year - it's the last chance for Quickstep to make some money from him, isn't it? I feel the same about Almeida, not impossible he leaves UAE this year as his contract is up end of 2026. If he wants to have a go at leading at the Tour while he's at his peak, he should go elsewhere.

Maybe Remco and Almeida will team up again, this time with Ineos. Arensman, Bernal, and Almeida: that's a good trio of domestiques.

 

[Berniece]

I suppose the bonus is that Ineos would be all in on supporting him at the Tour, whereas with Red Bull it depends what happens with Roglic. The downside I guess is that Ineos seems to be a team in flux at the moment and it's a little bit hard to tell what direction the team will go in over the next few years. They do have a few not quite top tier GC riders who might be persuaded to switch to a support role - how would we feel about Remco at the Tour with Bernal and Arensman as domestiques?

He would indeed have a better support team in GT’s but that doesn’t matter if Pogacar and Vingegaard attack.

 

[KoopaCycling]

He would indeed have a better support team in GT’s but that doesn’t matter if Pogacar and Vingegaard attack.

But it matters in all kinds of race situations though. Lets say you get gapped. But there is still 25k to go till the finish. You can maybe get dragged back with lesser effort if you got a solid teammate. Instead of having to do all the work (and maybe not making it back).

 

[Berniece]

But it matters in all kinds of race situations though. Lets say you get gapped. But there is still 25k to go till the finish. You can maybe get dragged back with lesser effort if you got a solid teammate. Instead of having to do all the work (and maybe not making it back).

Sure, to prevent losing more time. But I want to see him be better than Vingegaard and Pogacar. I don’t believe Ineos can get him there, since nothing changes besides teammates and money