Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Peyroteo94]

I watched most races. Did you? Maybe you did but have recency bias because of it. Remco's 2022 level from the summer onwards was stellar and he was going strong until his Covid exit during the 2023 Giro. He was much closer to Pogacar at that point, being also a year younger. He again improved in 2024, especially considering his crash 3 months prior to the tour, but clearly Pogacar made a giant leap forward.

He was closer in classics, in GTs the gap always was huge. This is what I have been saying.

 

[Red Rick]

How do we assert he was closer to Pogacar in 2022 when he didn't race against him in stage races apart from getting deleted in Tirreno-Adriatico?

 

[peterfin]

How do we assert he was closer to Pogacar in 2022 when he didn't race against him in stage races apart from getting deleted in Tirreno-Adriatico?

Based on data, peak performances. They both need to deal with the same physics.

 

[Berniece]

Wether kids help or not depends on each individual. Love and kids can be great boosts, but can also be detrimental.
There is no right or wrong answer. Just what a person wants in the situation he/she is in.

I disagree and think that can only work beneficially if you’re a shitty father during your cycling career.

Luckily Oumi has a higher education and wants her own career too. So I don’t expect kids anytime soon.

 

[Red Rick]

Based on data, peak performances. They both need to deal with the same physics.

Comparing unipuerto stages where the field does seasonal bests vs multi mountain stages that are blasted from a long way out.

It's logic by which Jay Vine is one of the top 4 climbers of 2022 which doesn't pass the sniff test whatsoever.

 

[Peyroteo94]

How do we assert he was closer to Pogacar in 2022 when he didn't race against him in stage races apart from getting deleted in Tirreno-Adriatico?

Because he won a Vuelta... that's the argument (a poor argument...).
The question is: Could he beat Vingegaard or Pogacar in the Tour 2022? Of course not.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Based on data, peak performances. They both need to deal with the same physics.

Such a poor argument, jesus... VAM is clearly higher in steeper climbs, specially in unipuerto stages like the Vuelta.

 

[peterfin]

Comparing unipuerto stages where the field does seasonal bests vs multi mountain stages that are blasted from a long way out.

It's logic by which Jay Vine is one of the top 4 climbers of 2022 which doesn't pass the sniff test whatsoever.

Maybe not top 4 but probably close. The thing is that Pogacar couldn't blast those unipuerto stages in 2023 as he does today either.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Maybe not top 4 but probably close. The thing is that Pogacar couldn't blast those unipuerto stages in 2023 as he does today either.

Not against Vingegaard but without a doubt against every other rider.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Maybe not top 4 but probably close. The thing is that Pogacar couldn't blast those unipuerto stages in 2023 as he does today either.

How so? He annihilated everyone not named Vingegaard on Puy de Dome stage.

 

[CyclistAbi]

How so? He is 25. More than time enough for kids. Everyone can decide this for themselves when they want them but I don’t believe kids help in your career.

We'll see.

 

[Berniece]

We'll see.

About what?

 

[CyclistAbi]

About what?

On how Remco feels about it.

 

[peterfin]

How so? He annihilated everyone not named Vingegaard on Puy de Dome stage.

The effort was similar to Remco's Pico Jano (Vuelta) and Gaustatoppen (Norway) win in 2022. So not that remarkeable compared to anything Pogacar did from 2024 onwards.

 

[Berflamand]

From what Soudal is saying Magnier will be focal point in Britain. With maybe Van Wilder for GC.
Remco is seen as helper and question mark regarding GC ambitions.
At least that is what I got from the article.

Magnier? He's riding in Bretagne, not in Britain. Lamperti (and/or Hayter?) is their sprinter in Britain.

Anyway I think the team not saying Remco's the leader doesn't mean much. I think he's going to race aggressively (if the parcours allows for it) to see where he stands and to further improve. If he's already good enough it probably means he simply wins the race. If he's not yet good enough it will probably make for an attractive race and might help Van Wilder.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

@peterfin I like Remco and think he can and will compete and win future GTs (though never be at Pogacar or Vingegaard level, which is no slight IMO), but just flip through those 2022 Vuelta stage race results. He’s barely dropping Mas, sometimes, and Ayuso. Roglic clearly very injured from the Tour. Stage 6 one second ahead of Mas. Stage 9 was the only day where he really took time on all his rivals. 34 seconds on a 19-year-old Ayuso.

 

[peterfin]

@peterfin I like Remco and think he can and will compete and win future GTs (though never be at Pogacar or Vingegaard level, which is no slight IMO), but just flip through those 2022 Vuelta stage race results. He’s barely dropping Mas, sometimes, and Ayuso. Roglic clearly very injured from the Tour. Stage 6 one second ahead of Mas. Stage 9 was the only day where he really took time on all his rivals. 34 seconds on a 19-year-old Ayuso.

Yes but my point is that based on data, he was much closer to Pogacar during that time then he is today. Data has its limits but it is even more problematic to make a relative comparison with other riders. For example, Mas did one of his best performances during that Vuelta according to his data and finished in the same time as Pogacar in Il Lombardy a month later.

Some here define Remco as just TT and one-day racer with insufficient climbing abilities to win GT's (apart from a Vuelta in the right conditions). I do not agree. He is not at the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard, that's correct, but he was improving his climbing abilities year after year until his latest crash and he only lost contact with Pogacar since 2024.

Remco is not a new Cancellara. His skillset is comparable to many GT winners of the past. He is not a pure climber but je has a great TT, recovery and climb engine. Ullrich and Dumoulin are two similar riders that come to mind. It's not because he needs to deal with the two biggest outliers regarding climb performance in the history of the sport that he is unable to climb or be a GT rider.

 

[Peyroteo94]

Yes but my point is that based on data, he was much closer to Pogacar during that time then he is today. Data has its limits but it is even more problematic to make a relative comparison with other riders. For example, Mas did one of his best performances during that Vuelta according to his data and finished in the same time as Pogacar in Il Lombardy a month later.

Some here define Remco as just TT and one-day racer with insufficient climbing abilities to win GT's (apart from a Vuelta in the right conditions). I do not agree. He is not at the level of Pogacar and Vingegaard, that's correct, but he was improving his climbing abilities year after year until his latest crash and he only lost contact with Pogacar since 2024.

Remco is not a new Cancellara. His skillset is comparable to many GT winners of the past. He is not a pure climber but je has a great TT, recovery and climb engine. Ullrich and Dumoulin are two similar riders that come to mind. It's not because he needs to deal with the two biggest outliers regarding climb performance in the history of the sport that he is unable to climb or be a GT rider.

He has insufficient climbing abilities IN THE era he is riding. That's the point. Could he win the TdF in the 2019 field? Of course! Sastre won a TdF, Pereiro, Bernal.
But in his era, Remco doesn't have a chance.
For me there are 2 reasons I say he will never win the Tour and other GTs.

1: The Tour is his dream race and the most suited race to be on his schedule with classics. I think we all agree on this. So I believe, in the next 2 years, he will target the TdF and not other GTs. And he can't beat Vingegaard or/and Pogacar.

2: he is not much better than the second tier of GT riders. I don't even know if he is better (IMO he isn't) but the most important thing is the young generation will surpass him in the next 2 years when he will try to compete in the TdF. So in 2028, when he tries to win the Giro, other GT riders like Del Toro, maybe Seixas (I don't know) will be better than him.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

but just flip through those 2022 Vuelta stage race results. He’s barely dropping Mas

As a huge Enricy fan: Autumn 2022 Mas was a legit beast. He dropped Pogi to win Emilia and was 2nd in Lombardia. The period from Vuelta to Lombardia 2022 was imo clearly the best version of Enric we’ve ever seen.

 

[peterfin]

He has insufficient climbing abilities IN THE era he is riding. That's the point. Could he win the TdF in the 2019 field? Of course! Sastre won a TdF, Pereiro, Bernal.
But in his era, Remco doesn't have a chance.
For me there are 2 reasons I say he will never win the Tour and other GTs.

1: The Tour is his dream race and the most suited race to be on his schedule with classics. I think we all agree on this. So I believe, in the next 2 years, he will target the TdF and not other GTs. And he can't beat Vingegaard or/and Pogacar.

2: he is not much better than the second tier of GT riders. I don't even know of he is better (IMO he isn't) but the most important thing is the young generation will surpass him in the next 2 years when he will try to compete in the TdF. So in 2028, when he tries to win the Giro, other GT riders like Del Toro, maybe Seixas (I don't know) will be better than him.

Ok. Fair points. I think we mainly have a different view about where he is relative to other upcoming talents. To me, his 2024 TdF was the third best performance of any rider sofar so I believe he is still above Lipo, Almeida or any new talent. I think he can still make progress, especially due to the change of team. I am also aware that his battered body may hinder progress and his less than average technical skills remain a risk. We will see what the future brings.

 

[KoopaCycling]

i saw sprinter focus for stages and van wilder comment.
I then googled soudal startlist for Britain.
Yesterday Magnier was still on soudal list. Today no longer. My mistake.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How so? He annihilated everyone not named Vingegaard on Puy de Dome stage.

A bunch of 19 year olds completely trashed one of Pogacar's climbing records from 2021 two days ago by minutes. How people still think Pog prior to 2024 is any kind of benchmark is beyond me.

 

[Netserk]

A bunch of 19 year olds completely trashed one of Pogacar's climbing records from 2021 two days ago by minutes. How people still think Pog prior to 2024 is any kind of benchmark is beyond me.

He only attacked near the end in 2021 in miserable weather. After a slow pace until then.

I'd like to see the young riders do the first 10 km of Joux Plane faster than Pogi in 2023.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

A bunch of 19 year olds completely trashed one of Pogacar's climbing records from 2021 two days ago by minutes. How people still think Pog prior to 2024 is any kind of benchmark is beyond me.

It was about relative strength. Pogacar was miles above everyone not named Vingegaard in 2023 Tour until he cracked on Loze. And his Puy de Dome or Cauterets performance confirmed it. I wouldn't even compare w/kg now vs 2-4 years ago, guys are faster now for reasons that can't be talked here. Obviously Pogacar improved massively but other guys (including Remco) also had some monster performances from 2024 on.

 

[Red Rick]

Citing the 2021 Tignes climbing time as an important benchmark is an actual jumping-the-shark moment.