Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Red Rick]

I believe I heard some sports scientist say on a German podcast the other day that people tend to push their biggest W/kg numbers on climbs of 5-8%. As in measured, not estimated.

Doesn't mean they're not overestimated.

As far as I know they've been using the same formula forever which just makes CdA a standard number and never takes into account drafting behind more than one rider.

 

[KZD]

which is why stage 6 at the TDF may suit him a bit more than Pog

No, Pogačar is also a beast on 5-8% gradients and 20 minute efforts, he will likely destroy everyone on that stage, Remco included.

 

[Berniece]

which is why stage 6 at the TDF may suit him a bit more than Pog

I don’t know, doubt he can drop Pogacar

 

[Krzysztof_O]

which is why stage 6 at the TDF may suit him a bit more than Pog

UAE and Pogacar can make an absolute carnage on Tourmalet. There'll be shreds on the steep, upper part of this climb (maybe Vingo will be close or maybe not). Pogi can make a big statement on this day with a solo win (it's also possible that he & Vingo will cooperate if the Dane is suddenly strong enough to match Pog).

 

[Berniece]

UAE and Pogacar can make an absolute carnage on Tourmalet. There'll be shreds on the steep, upper part of this climb (maybe Vingo will be close or maybe not). Pogi can make a big statement on this day with a solo win (it's also possible that he & Vingo will cooperate if the Dane is suddenly strong enough to match Pog).

Would be dumb of Vingegaard. After last two years I would let Pogacar do as much of the effort as possible

 

[vappaxbipmv]

His superior ITT helps getting a good GT result.

I agree but it's unfair to call him GT rider first when he's much better at hilly races or ITTs

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Would be dumb of Vingegaard. After last two years I would let Pogacar do as much of the effort as possible

Not necessarily dumb. Okay, he probably loses the sprint and 4 bonus seconds but he gains additional time on everyone else and basically reduces fight for 1st to 2 people

 

[Berniece]

Not necessarily dumb. Okay, he probably loses the sprint and 4 bonus seconds but he gains additional time on everyone else and basically reduces fight for 1st to 2 people

But he is the 2nd best easily, so you can always secure that place however you want

 

[Red Rick]

The only correct strategy in that hypothetical scenario is "decide in the moment based on various factors" and not "always cooperate" or "always suckwheel"

 

[vappaxbipmv]

But he is the 2nd best easily, so you can always secure that place however you want

It's not about securing 2nd, it's about reducing first for 1st to 2 people

 

[Berniece]

It's not about securing 2nd, it's about reducing first for 1st to 2 people

Making sure you are top 2, which you already have, while reducing odds to be number 1. Smart

 

[KoopaCycling]

Yeah if you're Vingegaard the last thing you want to do is the same as last 2 years, as it only helped Pogacar. They should make the race hard with the Visma team only when Pogacar is already on the attack and use the Visma train to chase him down or when Pogacar visible tired. If you're alone with him, you don't ride at all. it looks bad, but you don't ride. you want to keep other riders close to keep Pogacar under pressure from more riders than just yourself. You don't want to simplify it for him and make it so Pogacar only needs to look at you (Jonas). You want UAE and Pogacar to need to be aware of Remco, Lipo, Onley, Seixas, ... of the world. So no making stages hard and all that stuff. Maybe even purposely give the green light to rivals not named Pogacar.

 

[AmRacer]

Yeah if you're Vingegaard the last thing you want to do is the same as last 2 years, as it only helped Pogacar. They should make the race hard with the Visma team only when Pogacar is already on the attack and use the Visma train to chase him down or when Pogacar visible tired. If you're alone with him, you don't ride at all. it looks bad, but you don't ride. you want to keep other riders close to keep Pogacar under pressure from more riders than just yourself. You don't want to simplify it for him and make it so Pogacar only needs to look at you (Jonas). You want UAE and Pogacar to need to be awar of Remco, Lipo, Onley, Seixas, ... of the world. So no making stages hard and all that stuff.

No train can chase down Pogi when he attacks in the mountains.

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Making sure you are top 2, which you already have, while reducing odds to be number 1. Smart

If you let the followers come back you don't increase your odds of being 1st either. You just allow more riders into contention. What if Pogacar has to abandon and Remco beats Jonas because Giro, knowing that Jonas could take time on him on this particular stage. Pretty idiotic not to take time if you can

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Yeah if you're Vingegaard the last thing you want to do is the same as last 2 years, as it only helped Pogacar. They should make the race hard with the Visma team only when Pogacar is already on the attack and use the Visma train to chase him down or when Pogacar visible tired. If you're alone with him, you don't ride at all. it looks bad, but you don't ride. you want to keep other riders close to keep Pogacar under pressure from more riders than just yourself. You don't want to simplify it for him and make it so Pogacar only needs to look at you (Jonas). You want UAE and Pogacar to need to be aware of Remco, Lipo, Onley, Seixas, ... of the world. So no making stages hard and all that stuff. Maybe even purposely give the green light to rivals not named Pogacar.

The best way for Jonas to beat Pogacar is to guarantee 2nd and hope he has to abandon for whatever reason. After already riding Giro and not taking time when he could, it's quite possible he doesn't win as a result, even if Pogacar has to drop out

 

[Berniece]

If you let the followers come back you don't increase your odds of being 1st either. You just allow more riders into contention. What if Pogacar has to abandon and Remco beats Jonas because Giro, knowing that Jonas could take time on him on this particular stage. Pretty idiotic not to take time if you can

So he isn't by default finishing second? Which was the whole premise, and what everyone keeps saying

 

[AmRacer]

So he isn't by default finishing second? Which was the whole premise, and what everyone keeps saying

Almost default, we don't know what the Giro will do to him.

 

[KoopaCycling]

If you let the followers come back you don't increase your odds of being 1st either. You just allow more riders into contention. What if Pogacar has to abandon and Remco beats Jonas because Giro, knowing that Jonas could take time on him on this particular stage. Pretty idiotic not to take time if you can

Yes you do. Cause if Remco was given the green light on a semi hilly stage from Visma, and for some reason Pogacar is caught offguard (unlikely but it's a hypothetical) and remco takes a couple of minutes. Pogacar and UAE would need to counter and burn fuel on every Remco attack. Whilst Vingegaard can sit up and follow. Keeping more people in contention and putting Pogacar in choice trouble, not allowing simplification is a far better strategy, then reducing it to a 1vs1 and hope for the best.

 

[KoopaCycling]

Remco looked good today but i haven't seen anything that i haven't seen in the fall of last year yet. Better than the opponents overall. (flat, climbs, descend combined) but have not noticed a climbing performance increase. Still take Pogacar away and he can beat anyone in the Ardennes & Lombardia that's for sure.

He did work hard today, dug deep doing a lot of work for a 'minor' victory. then again, not like that work will have a negative effect on his primary goals methinks. Hopefully it will do the opposite and bring him dividents.

 

[red_flanders]

Remco looked good today but i haven't seen anything that i haven't seen in the fall of last year yet. Better than the opponents overall. (flat, climbs, descend combined) but have not noticed a climbing performance increase. Still take Pogacar away and he can beat anyone in the Ardennes & Lombardia that's for sure.

He did work hard today, dug deep doing a lot of work for a 'minor' victory. then again, not like that work will have a negative effect on his primary goals methinks. Hopefully it will do the opposite and bring him dividents.

Yes, it's a January training ride and he's stronger than the guys he's training with.

Not sure what could be gleaned beyond that. Other than +3 professional wins and a nice start with a new team.

 

[AmRacer]

Yes, it's a January training ride and he's stronger than the guys he's training with.

Not sure what could be gleaned beyond that. Other than +3 professional wins and a nice start with a new team.

It would be something if it were +3 unprofessional wins 🤪

 

[red_flanders]

It would be something if it were +3 unprofessional wins 🤪

He has 143 city limits sprint victories in Tenerife... 😂

 

[vappaxbipmv]

Yes you do. Cause if Remco was given the green light on a semi hilly stage from Visma, and for some reason Pogacar is caught offguard (unlikely but it's a hypothetical) and remco takes a couple of minutes. Pogacar and UAE would need to counter and burn fuel on every Remco attack. Whilst Vingegaard can sit up and follow. Keeping more people in contention and putting Pogacar in choice trouble, not allowing simplification is a far better strategy, then reducing it to a 1vs1 and hope for the best.

Reducing it to 1v1 and hoping Pogacar drops out if pretty much the only hope anyone has at this point. Also, Remco taking minutes on Pogacar in one stage is such a delusional take I won't even address it

 

[Cycling111]

Remco looked good today but i haven't seen anything that i haven't seen in the fall of last year yet. Better than the opponents overall. (flat, climbs, descend combined) but have not noticed a climbing performance increase. Still take Pogacar away and he can beat anyone in the Ardennes & Lombardia that's for sure.

He did work hard today, dug deep doing a lot of work for a 'minor' victory. then again, not like that work will have a negative effect on his primary goals methinks. Hopefully it will do the opposite and bring him dividents.

Do you see him as a favorite in FW? (without Pogacar)

 

[KoopaCycling]

Do you see him as a favorite in FW? (without Pogacar)

Not as the main favourite, but he's not without a chance. There are more explosive riders, but timing and prolonged effort are often key as well. Plus maybe Red bull and remco can tweak the known formula of waiting for the final wall.

I know Amstel ain't Ardennes but i do count it amongst those later spring classics. (Amstel, FW, LBL) So that's 2 outta 3 and an outsider shot at the third without Pogacar imo.