Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't see how his rouleur skills will save him to Sestola. Nor that getting dropped there automatically means that he won't be strong in the third week.

It's not about simply getting dropped or being strong. It' s about his form being good enough in the third week to potentially reel in the overall there, while being bad enough to lose too much time in the first week, in case opposition tries to get rid of him. In this scenario, we're not talking about "being good" in the third week, but about him being dominant enough to win. As opposed to how his form would be in the first week, which would be anything but, in order to lose so much time, that with his form of the third week, he would not be able to make up for it. The premise proposes a steep curve of form, where rivals definitively blow him out of the GC race when his form is bad, to prevent him making up for it 2 weeks later assuming he would dominate them. While it's possible that dropping him 20s on stage 4 is enough to prevent him from winning, if rivals do in fact fear his 3rd week form, i wouldn't count on 20s being enough. If they wanted to really take him out of GC at that time for good, he'd need to lose minutes. I just don't see that being possible assuming his 3rd week form would be formidable.

Again, my personal opinion: either he gets dropped in the first week, and he'll improve, but not enough to have won GC anyway (even without time he lost in the first week), or if he's strong enough to control the race in week 3, they won't put significant time onto him in week 1.

 

[Red Rick]

...as well as a more trophies than probably any other 21-year-old cyclist in modern times.

Mate.

Pogacar.

 

[Red Rick]

I do like the premise that while climbing speeds have gotten like 5% faster since Evenepoel crashed out of Il Lombardia he could still the fields as easily

 

[red_flanders]

It's not about simply getting dropped or being strong. It' s about his form being good enough in the third week to potentially reel in the overall there, while being bad enough to lose too much time in the first week, in case opposition tries to get rid of him. In this scenario, we're not talking about "being good" in the third week, but about him being dominant enough to win. As opposed to how his form would be in the first week, which would be anything but, in order to lose so much time, that with his form of the third week, he would not be able to make up for it. The premise proposes a steep curve of form, where rivals definitively blow him out of the GC race when his form is bad, to prevent him making up for it 2 weeks later assuming he would dominate them. While it's possible that dropping him 20s on stage 4 is enough to prevent him from winning, if rivals do in fact fear his 3rd week form, i wouldn't count on 20s being enough. If they wanted to really take him out of GC at that time for good, he'd need to lose minutes. I just don't see that being possible assuming his 3rd week form would be formidable.

Again, my personal opinion: either he gets dropped in the first week, and he'll improve, but not enough to have won GC anyway (even without time he lost in the first week), or if he's strong enough to control the race in week 3, they won't put significant time onto him in week 1.

Actually, that is what a lot of us were talking about, losing time early but potentially winning a stage or stages late. I don’t think anyone sees him getting dropped in week one and the dominating the last week. But, I could be wrong. Anyone?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Actually, that is what a lot of us were talking about, losing time early but potentially winning a stage or stages late. I don’t think anyone sees him getting dropped in week one and the dominating the last week. But, I could be wrong. Anyone?

That i could definitely see, but i didn't think that was what LesDiablesRouges meant. He was talking about rivals taking him out of the GC battle early on, so that he wouldn't be an issue in week 3. Or maybe i'm reading too much into it.

I do like the premise that while climbing speeds have gotten like 5% faster since Evenepoel crashed out of Il Lombardia he could still the fields as easily

Well, Evenepoel already established a climbing record on Alto da Foia before his crash, if i'm not mistaking. At least he was faster than Pogacar the year before.
Apparently he broke the record on Picon Blanco as well: http://www.climbing-records.com/2020/07/picon-blanco-remco-evenepoels-first.html

Mate.

Pogacar.

Agreed. He should have said 20 or 19. Then again, Evenepoel's only been 21 for 2 months.

 

[red_flanders]

That i could definitely see, but i didn't think that was what LesDiablesRouges meant. He was talking about rivals taking him out of the GC battle early on, so that he wouldn't be an issue in week 3. Or maybe i'm reading too much into it.

I think it’s safe to say that it would be a wise tactic to expend some energy to take time out of him (if you can) early. If he sticks around and is right there or thereabouts after the first 10 days, he‘s going to be a problem.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

Mate.

Pogacar.

I did say more and not more prestigious No, I forgot that he only turned 22 the day after he won the Tour. What a time to be alive for a cycling fan though, huh?

 

[spalco]

It's so weird to go into your first GT like this and having people expect a top performance or something.

What is even the point of rushing the Giro unless you're not rushing it and trying to bamboozle everyone.

DQS might be honest about low expectations for Remco in the Giro this time around (I don't think they were last year), it's still good prep and experience for him, especially without the pressure to win.

In my opinion, even Remco being Remco, winning the Giro as a debutant, without a single race km after such a horrific injury and long time off, is just fantasy.
If he can hang on to the peloton on most stages, finish the race and spend a good amount of time in the wind helping his team, I would consider that respectable in his current state, even if others would make fun of him.

 

[BigCoward]

In my opinion, even Remco being Remco, winning the Giro as a debutant, without a single race km after such a horrific injury and long time off, is just fantasy.

An unproven GT rider winning the Giro with perfect prep and no injury is bordering on fantasy, I don't care how good you are.

 

[Gigs_98]

People have to start being realistic. There's a few things that are almost certainties in the cycling world.
You don't win your very first GT, you don't win GT's at that age in general, you aren't better than ever in your first race back after such a horrible injury and most importantly you can't win a GT without a single day of racing as preparation.

Then again it's Remco...

Yeah, not gonna pretend to be shocked if he wins.

 

[Wvv]

You don't win your very first GT

Then again it's Remco...

I honestly think he just would've won last year's Giro. This year, most likely not.

 

[Boes]

Mate.

Pogacar.

Well yes, but still, Remco's prizes are pretty spectacular considering he's been injured for the last 6 months.

Pogacar has:

• won algarve (age 20)
• podium Vuelta (age 20)
• won TdF 2020 (age 21)
• won Tirreno 2021 (age 22)
• won UAE 2021 (age 22)

Evenepoel has:

• won tour of Belgium (age 19)
• won San Sebastian (age 19)
• won Euro's TT (age 19)
• won Algarve (age 20)
• won Poland (age 20)

Biggest difference is the TdF win obviously.

 

[tobydawq]

Well yes, but still, Remco's prizes are pretty spectacular considering he's been injured for the last 6 months.

Pogacar has:

• won algarve (age 20)
• podium Vuelta (age 20)
• won TdF 2020 (age 21)
• won Tirreno 2021 (age 22)
• won UAE 2021 (age 22)

Evenepoel has:

• won tour of Belgium (age 19)
• won San Sebastian (age 19)
• won Euro's TT (age 19)
• won Algarve (age 20)
• won Poland (age 20)

Biggest difference is the TdF win obviously.

And Vuelta podium? And LBL podium? And Tirreno win?

 

[Bonimenier]

And Vuelta podium? And LBL podium? And Tirreno win?

Vuelta podium is in his list, but the other 2 he achieved at age 22 and I thought you guys were talking about 21 year olds.

Pretty sure Evenepoel won more at age 21 and younger than Pogacar. Pogacar did slip in a nice little victory just before he turned 22 though. Evenepoel still has some time for that.

 

[hayneplane]

Vuelta podium is in his list, but the other 2 he achieved at age 22 and I thought you guys were talking about 21 year olds.

Pretty sure Evenepoel won more at age 21 and younger than Pogacar. Pogacar did slip in a nice little victory just before he turned 22 though. Evenepoel still has some time for that.

And you could add Worlds ITT silver medal for Remco to that list though you would also have to add Tour of California to Pogacar.

 

[SafeBet]

And you could add Worlds ITT silver medal for Remco to that list though you would also have to add Tour of California to Pogacar.

So officially two GTs for Pog.

 

[tobydawq]

Vuelta podium is in his list, but the other 2 he achieved at age 22 and I thought you guys were talking about 21 year olds.

Pretty sure Evenepoel won more at age 21 and younger than Pogacar. Pogacar did slip in a nice little victory just before he turned 22 though. Evenepoel still has some time for that.

It was more his "the major difference being the TDF win" as if that tiny detail was the only thing separating their palmares. I'm not trying to take anything away from Remco but putting those two lists with five biggest achievements up really didn't support the notion that they are close to equal, results-wise.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

People have to start being realistic. There's a few things that are almost certainties in the cycling world.
You don't win your very first GT, you don't win GT's at that age in general

Pogacar podiumed at his first ever GT and won the TdF just before his 22nd birthday. There are no certainties when it comes to the NextGen.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

People are quick to forget it seems. Here is the list of what Pogacar had won, when he was the same age as Remco when Remco crashed in Il Lombardia:

Spoiler

Stage in Volta ao Algarve
General Classification in Volta ao Algarve
That's.
It.

 

[tobydawq]

People are quick to forget it seems. Here is the list of what Pogacar had won, when he was the same age as Remco when Remco crashed in Il Lombardia:

Spoiler

Stage in Volta ao Algarve
General Classification in Volta ao Algarve
That's.
It.

Yes, Pogacar is a crap rider. Blindingly obvious.

 

[Red Rick]

This reminds me of every time I see direct age by age comparisons of young tennis players to Roger Federer before the latter won everything big.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yes, Pogacar is a crap rider. Blindingly obvious.

Where did you read that?

The point is that some of you seem to be forgetting just how young he was and how extraordinary Evenepoel's achievements were. But it's difficult to win races in a hospital bed.

This reminds me of every time I see direct age by age comparisons of young tennis players to Roger Federer before the latter won everything big.

Lol, it was litterally you who started comparing him to Pogacar.

 

[Red Rick]

Where did you read that?

The point is that some of you seem to be forgetting just how young he was and how extraordinary Evenepoel's achievements were. But it's difficult to win races in a hospital bed.


Lol, it was litterally you who started comparing him to Pogacar.

Yes, because somebody claimed there was no rider with such palmares at 21 in I don't know how long he claimed when Evenepoels direct peer won the Tour at 21.

And stuff like "but he has a better palmares compared to Pogacar before Pogacar won the Tour", is precisely the premise I disagree with. Besides I don't even think Evenepoels palmares is better than Pogacars before he won the Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yes, because somebody claimed there was no rider with such palmares at 21 in I don't know how long he claimed when Evenepoels direct peer won the Tour at 21.

And stuff like "but he has a better palmares compared to Pogacar before Pogacar won the Tour", is precisely the premise I disagree with. Besides I don't even think Evenepoels palmares is better than Pogacars before he won the Tour.

His direct peer won the Tour at 21 and 364 days. That's only one day removed from the most accurate description of being 22.
We may not refer to age mathematically when we verbally address it, but there is a big difference in this context. The context was "pound for pound", not pound and a few hundreds of grams

Furthermore, you chose to take that claim at face value. That was your call. You chose to ignore the meaning behind the statement and put it to the test. That's ok, i do that too sometimes, just don't start looking for excuses when people call you out. So if you want to nitpick, then don't sulk when nitpicked.

 

[spalco]

What the *** does it even matter? Let us compare their palmares in 10 years.