Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[LesDiablesRouges]

#Almeida

Remco should still be able to manage a top 5 if everything goes well, potentially more. We’ve already seen riders in the Giro ship time with the other gaining and the roles become reversed. Yes the hype was real but he is still performing well. I think the biggest question if he is at the TT with 1’30” behind Bernal if he is still able to outperform him in the TT and or will he be too fatigued.

1'30' number was an estimation. 30km pancake flat ITT is not terribly difficult unless you think Evenepoel is going to blow himself up going forward. I think DQS would yank him if that were the case.

I think a minute + is a reasonable estimate of the gap.

Bernal is a slightly above average TTer on a flat surface. Remco is capable of 32:30-32.45 time Bernal looks to be around 34-34:15 for 30.3km

 

[SHAD0W93]

1'30' number was an estimation. 30km pancake flat ITT is not terribly difficult unless you think Evenepoel is going to blow himself up going forward. I think DQS would yank him if that were the case.

I think a minute + is a reasonable estimate of the gap.

Bernal is a slightly above average TTer on a flat surface. Remco is capable of 32:30-32.45 time Bernal looks to be around 34-34:15 for 30.3km

I just remember people saying 2 mins for the TT.

 

[Bonimenier]

I find the Almeida blaming unfair tbh. DQS has been saying for weeks and months that a 22 year old rider will be their main leader at the Giro. Then suddenly days before the start Lefevere says he will be co-leader, they won't resign him because he is not good enough for the money he asks and he will be sent home if he doesn't comply to team orders. Most 22 year olds would have said: "screw you, I'll ride for myself", but Almeida still worked for Evenepoel and played a major part in Evenepoel not losing minutes today. Hat off to him, I wouldn't have done it at age 22.

 

[groogster]

Look, I was following this on Eurosport PT...And we've all honestly been curious about what JA would do after last year's Masnada debacle (it really is a running joke at this point), so I was pretty focused on seeing what was happening between those two on the road.

So what I saw all the while was Remco holding on for dear life for the whole duration of the sterrato sectors. He had at least JA and Serry with him. At one point they fall into a split and Serry pulls along with JA. After this Serry is cooked and gone. Remco is now alone with JA.

Then they're all in the smaller bunch with the maglia rosa for a while. Remco is in the back half all the while. You'd expect JA to be with him all the while, but nope - he's right at the front. If he wasn't 4 minutes back and in a helper role you'd say he was riding like a champ. So when Remco finally is dropped, he's still way out in front and doesn't drop back until Remco is about 20 seconds behind the main group (at least that's when we noticed him missing from the front).

Then he drops back, takes a pull and drops Remco again. Then drops back AGAIN and pulls him to the finish. In between this, Remco throws the earpiece out.

So to be consistent vs. Masnada last year...JA was, at best, an unwilling helper and at worse actively sabotaging Remco. The only other option is some Movistar-level team strategy. He did nothing to secure Remco's 2nd place and in my honest opinion, he still thought he had a shot at a top10 (not that unrealistic) and did not want to drop back. Hell, I saw much of the same on stage 10 right at the end. Remco dropped back in the tunnel and JA was out front talking on the radio and looking over his shoulder - I honestly thought he was about to attack then and there.

Assumptions from watching a TV broadcast... the thing about assumptions is that we all have one, they are free and easy to type... having said that, i will also make an assumption... if you saw the TV broadcast in Portuguese Eurosport I will assume that you are Portuguese... assuming that I will say that if you are Portuguese and love cycling then you follow João Almeida
career since at least he turned Pro...

Now the tricky question, knowing João's professional behaviour since turning Pro do you think it's fair and wise to say "JA was, at best, an unwilling helper and at worse actively sabotaging Remco"?

 

[johnymax]

I find the Almeida blaming unfair tbh. DQS has been saying for weeks and months that a 22 year old rider will be their main leader at the Giro. Then suddenly days before the start Lefevere suddenly says he will be co-leader, they won't resign him because he is not good enough for the money he asks and he will be sent home if he doesn't comply to team orders. Most 22 year olds would have said: "screw you, I'll ride for myself", but Almeida still worked for Evenepoel and played a major part in Evenepoel not losing minutes today. Hat off to him, I wouldn't have done it at age 22.

Yeah, but if Lefevere is a man of his words, you would have been sent home after the stage.

 

[limak_]

Just too add some context to Almeida's thing.

One of the Spanish ES journalists who's Portuguese (Goncalo Moreira) and has known Almeida for quite a while said that Almieda's '20 Giro success sort of went to his head and that he struggled with handling the pressure and the sudden rise of the popularity.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

I just remember people saying 2 mins for the TT.

If I were Bernal I'd want more than 2 minutes on Evenepoel. in the final TT to allow for any technical issues and just to feel comfortable. Each KM the greater potential for loss for someone like Evenepoel versus a TT'er like Bernal.

The base calculation is as follows:

30.3/8.6 = 3.52
3.52 *20 = 70.4 seconds = 1:10

However, you'd need to use this type of calculator

Power to Speed Calculator | Endurance Data

Choose temperature, altitude, tires, CdA, drivetrain efficiency and calculate the speed for a given power output.

www.endurance-data.com

to address drag coefficient, CDA, altitude, etc to determine how that time would be modified.

On top of which is a bonus to Bernal for wearing Maglia Rosa and going last. Granted this would need to be researched to determine the expected increase granted by being the leader

Of course again one would have to measure "decay" of the riders throughout the race.

In March Bernal lost 0:55 seconds to Wout in a 10.1km ITT 0:44 to Ganna and 0:43 to Pogacar

In February he lost 1:09 to Ganna in a 10.74km ITT with final slope.

His most recent ITT results seem to suggest that he's at a severe disadvantage in an ITT.

PS my initial times were wrong. I would put Evenepoel 33:10-33:25 and Bernal around 35 - 35:15 for the ITT on stage 21.

 

[Bonimenier]

Yeah, but if Lefevere is a man of his words, you would have been sent home after the stage.

Apparently there were technical issues with the communication and he dropped back as soon as they were fixed. So he actually did follow team orders. Only thing you can blame him for is that he wasn't around Evenepoel at all times, but that's probably because he doesn't have that natural domestique instinct.

 

[johnymax]

I was watching the live Italian feed on RAI and they were praising Almeida a lot for his work during the stage. Then I re-watched the stage on ES with English commentators and especially Rob Hatch was in shock, why Almeida wasn't immediately back with Remco. Different point of views...

 

[AlfaLum]

At this moment i would not expect Remco to produce his best numbers in the final stage of his first Grand Tour. I think he will struggle to gain a minute on his competitors in that final TT.

 

[groogster]

Yeah, but if Lefevere is a man of his words, you would have been sent home after the stage.

A good question then... will João be sent to the bus? After all it seems already that the judgment was made and that he is blame for what happened! This is turning into a bad joke

If we look at the facts, not assumptions:

We saw Remcos starting to struggle after the first gravel section
The DQ team blew up closing the gap to the main group
We saw Remco strugling again in the 3rd gravel section being left behind and João Almeida staying upfront
Then we saw João Almeida easing the pace so Remco could catch him
After a few words between we saw João leaving again
Then Deceunick´s car was behind Remco and he threw the headset off
Then we saw João waiting for him a few meters ahead
Untill the end we saw João Almeida pulling Remco to the finish line saving Remcos hopes of at least fight for a TOP 3 at this Giro
After the finish we read Remcos thanking João Almeida for his help

That's what we all saw, nothing more than that

 

[limak_]

I was watching the live Italian feed on RAI and they were praising Almeida a lot for his work during the stage. Then I re-watched the stage on ES with English commentators and especially Rob Hatch was in shock, why Almeida wasn't immediately back with Remco. Different point of views...

It's just the Italians being always super chaotic when reporting abot sth. I used to like watching RAI coverages as they put a lot of heart into the commentating but surely I wouldn't use it as the main source of reliable information

 

[johnymax]

Apparently there were technical issues with the communication and he dropped back as soon as they were fixed. So he actually did follow team orders. Only thing you can blame him for is that he wasn't around Evenepoel at all times, but that's probably because he doesn't have that natural domestique instinct.

Ah, I didn't know about the technical issues. I agree with you then. He has done a good job then, but with the mistake of not being close to Remco in the group. Although I believe it's probably difficult to stay close to a rider all the time in a group, if the said rider has so much troubles with bike handling and with following the right wheel.

 

[JosefK]

At this moment i would not expect Remco to produce his best numbers in the final stage of his first Grand Tour. I think he will struggle to gain a minute on his competitors in that final TT.

Yes, it would be shocking if Remco turned in a top TT performance, as his form is already somewhat lacking.

 

[MikeTichondrius]

Assumptions from watching a TV broadcast... the thing about assumptions is that we all have one, they are free and easy to type... having said that, i will also make an assumption... if you saw the TV broadcast in Portuguese Eurosport I will assume that you are Portuguese... assuming that I will say that if you are Portuguese and love cycling then you follow João Almeida
career since at least he turned Pro...

Now the tricky question, knowing João's professional behaviour since turning Pro do you think it's fair and wise to say "JA was, at best, an unwilling helper and at worse actively sabotaging Remco"?

I am indeed Portuguese, and have nothing but support for JA. He's the best PT cycling prospect since at least Rui Costa and he gives me hope of someday seeing a Portuguese GT winner. I honestly had some beef with DQS prior to the Giro due to the mixed signals coming from them - e.g., naming him 'leader' but Remco is #1. Then Lefevere's comments came. We've all seen this before...But then JA lost 4 minutes, so, as much as I dislike it, there is no way he shouldn't domestique for his 2nd place teammate for the rest of the race.

I do not, however, know anything about his personality off the bike (saw some interviews last year and he came off a bit shy and guarded - quite the contrast with Ruben!) so can't speak for that.

I can, however, call them like I see them and his actions reminded me of the Team Gadret memes at one point. Of course he then pulled Remco like a beast to the line. But I'll be damned if I know what the hell happened on the radio between them before he resigned to pulling.

 

[Bonimenier]

Yes, it would be shocking if Remco turned in a top TT performance, as his form is already somewhat lacking.

Saying his form is already lacking is such an overreaction. He's been good the first 10 days. It's not because he wasn't that good a very particular kind of stage that his form is on a downwards spiral.

 

[BlueRoads]

Please don't call Almeida JA. Confuses me.

 

[johnymax]

It's just the Italians being always super chaotic when reporting abot sth. I used to like watching RAI coverages as they put a lot of heart into the commentating but surely I wouldn't use it as the main source of reliable information

I'd disagree, at least for races on Italian soil. Because they usually have moto reporters at the races and report actions and events you can't see on camera and are pretty much always a very reliable source of information.

 

[johnymax]

A good question then... will João be sent to the bus? After all it seems already that the judgment was made and that he is blame for what happened! This is turning into a bad joke

If we look at the facts, not assumptions:

We saw Remcos starting to struggle after the first gravel section
The DQ team blew up closing the gap to the main group
We saw Remco strugling again in the 3rd gravel section being left behind and João Almeida staying upfront
Then we saw João Almeida easing the pace so Remco could catch him
After a few words between we saw João leaving again
Then Deceunick´s car was behind Remco and he threw the headset off
Then we saw João waiting for him a few meters ahead
Untill the end we saw João Almeida pulling Remco to the finish line saving Remcos hopes of at least fight for a TOP 3 at this Giro
After the finish we read Remcos thanking João Almeida for his help

That's what we all saw, nothing more than that

I don't blame Almeida.

 

[johnymax]

Please don't call Almeida JA. Confuses me.

Same here haha. I thought of Alaphilippe first everytime I read JA.

 

[groogster]

I am indeed Portuguese, and have nothing but support for JA. He's the best PT cycling prospect since at least Rui Costa and he gives me hope of someday seeing a Portuguese GT winner. I honestly had some beef with DQS prior to the Giro due to the mixed signals coming from them - e.g., naming him 'leader' but Remco is #1. Then Lefevere's comments came. We've all seen this before...But then JA lost 4 minutes, so, as much as I dislike it, there is no way he shouldn't domestique for his 2nd place teammate for the rest of the race.

I do not, however, know anything about his personality off the bike (saw some interviews last year and he came off a bit shy and guarded - quite the contrast with Ruben!) so can't speak for that.

I can, however, call them like I see them and his actions reminded me of the Team Gadret memes at one point. Of course he then pulled Remco like a beast to the line. But I'll be damned if I know what the hell happened on the radio between them before he resigned to pulling.

I respect your opinion on this subject but I think it's a little harsh and maybe unfair on João what you said without any given facts to support it
BTW it seems that after all Deceunick's race Directors couldn't communicate with them on the radio at the time that Remco was getting behind.
So maybe João could be a little more aware of Remco's positioning and he should have been besides him at all times, that's the role of a "domestique" but besides that nothing to blame on João, after all he pulled Remco to the finish line, haven't he?

 

[limak_]

If I were Bernal I'd want more than 2 minutes on Evenepoel. in the final TT to allow for any technical issues and just to feel comfortable. Each KM the greater potential for loss for someone like Evenepoel versus a TT'er like Bernal.

The base calculation is as follows:

30.3/8.6 = 3.52
3.52 *20 = 70.4 seconds = 1:10

However, you'd need to use this type of calculator

Power to Speed Calculator | Endurance Data

Choose temperature, altitude, tires, CdA, drivetrain efficiency and calculate the speed for a given power output.

www.endurance-data.com

to address drag coefficient, CDA, altitude, etc to determine how that time would be modified.

On top of which is a bonus to Bernal for wearing Maglia Rosa and going last. Granted this would need to be researched to determine the expected increase granted by being the leader

Of course again one would have to measure "decay" of the riders throughout the race.

In March Bernal lost 0:55 seconds to Wout in a 10.1km ITT 0:44 to Ganna and 0:43 to Pogacar

In February he lost 1:09 to Ganna in a 10.74km ITT with final slope.

His most recent ITT results seem to suggest that he's at a severe disadvantage in an ITT.

PS my initial times were wrong. I would put Evenepoel 33:10-33:25 and Bernal around 35 - 35:15 for the ITT on stage 21.

At the same time I'm expecting Bernal to do exceptionally well in final TT due to the extra motivation kick he gets if his Giro victory is gonna be decided in that TT. Psychological aspect is really crucial in TTs.

 

[Bonimenier]

At the same time I'm expecting Bernal to do exceptionally well in final TT due to the extra motivation kick he gets if his Giro victory is gonna be decided in that TT. Psychological aspect is really crucial in TTs.

On the other hand if Evenepoel manages to get a bit closer to Bernal in GC before the TT (and that's a big if), and would be in reaching distance, he'll be hypermotivated too. Mentally it would be a huge boost as well if he can get some time back in the stages before the TT.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Evenepoel should probably be glad that Bettiol and Guerreiro lost Carthy in the first sector, cause otherwise it might have been all over. Now he's still in with a chance of the victory (not that likely though) or a podium spot at least.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm kind of disappointed right now. Will try to post something later.

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