Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Zoef-Lightning]

I think it's good that Evenepoel also rides smaller stage races that should suit him a little less. Although he always chooses a stage race that includes a time trial. If the intention is to go for a win in Liege, then he should be very close to his top form in the Basque Country. If he does that for the overall victory, his career can still go in all directions. Is he failing again, or is he having a bad day, then we can gradually conclude that Evenepoel will not become a GC rider. Then he has to specialize in stage victories and in one-day races. Let's wait and see Itzulia. But also Liege, because it remains to be seen whether he will perform well there, in a major one-day classic.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There have been multiple times when Remco seems to prefer a high gear where I think he would benefit from a lower gear. That struggle in Valancia was a prime example. He was basically pushing at stall torque for a while. Moving to lower gear would likely result in more overall power and as such a higher average speed, even if he can't react to accelerations of the mountain goats that much. He doesn't need to copy Froome or Armstrong but working a bit more with his cardio-engine would benefit him.

He generally does high rpm while climbing, but i've also seen that when he struggles, he keeps pushing a big gear for some reason.

I think it's good that Evenepoel also rides smaller stage races that should suit him a little less. Although he always chooses a stage race that includes a time trial. If the intention is to go for a win in Liege, then he should be very close to his top form in the Basque Country. If he does that for the overall victory, his career can still go in all directions. Is he failing again, or is he having a bad day, then we can gradually conclude that Evenepoel will not become a GC rider. Then he has to specialize in stage victories and in one-day races. Let's wait and see Itzulia. But also Liege, because it remains to be seen whether he will perform well there, in a major one-day classic.

Not only did he start at Burgos and Poland, he also won them. Neither had a TT.

Even if he fails at Itzulia, you could not conclude he could not become a GC rider. He finished 11th at TA and was 13th in the queen stage, well ahead of Kelderman, Hart, Lopez, Uran... He's only 22. When any other 22 year old finishes 11th in GC and has a great TT, people would be keeping an eye on him for future GC's. But because it's Evenepoel, finishing 11th should mean he should quit trying. lol

 

[Oldermanish]

He generally does high rpm while climbing, but i've also seen that when he struggles, he keeps pushing a big gear for some reason.


Not only did he start at Burgos and Poland, he also won them. Neither had a TT.

Even if he fails at Itzulia, you could not conclude he could not become a GC rider. He finished 11th at TA and was 13th in the queen stage, well ahead of Kelderman, Hart, Lopez, Uran... He's only 22. When any other 22 year old finishes 11th in GC and has a great TT, people would be keeping an eye on him for future GC's. But because it's Evenepoel, finishing 11th should mean he should quit trying. lol

Great combination of observations by Peterfin, Zoef and you.
I had that same thought about cadence watching him get gapped in climbs. It can be from a lack of buildup or level of endurance that older riders possess. It's tempting to horse a bigger gear to keep the pulse down but you can't do it day after day; which is what he will learn doing more races that don't quite suit that style. It's pretty basic technique but super-strong TT'ers can be the worst at cadence changes from my experience.

 

[limak_]

He generally does high rpm while climbing, but i've also seen that when he struggles, he keeps pushing a big gear for some reason.

It's quite an obvious and natural thing that the more your legs are tired (or in general the more you struggle) the harder it is to keep high cadence. And it applies generally to everyone.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's quite an obvious and natural thing that the more your legs are tired (or in general the more you struggle) the harder it is to keep high cadence. And it applies generally to everyone.

I know it's not uncommon, but especially when climbing i tend to do the opposite.

 

[Big Doopie]

There have been multiple times when Remco seems to prefer a high gear where I think he would benefit from a lower gear. That struggle in Valancia was a prime example. He was basically pushing at stall torque for a while. Moving to lower gear would likely result in more overall power and as such a higher average speed, even if he can't react to accelerations of the mountain goats that much. He doesn't need to copy Froome or Armstrong but working a bit more with his cardio-engine would benefit him.

he generally spins when at his best. However, when cyclists are “done” they opt for bigger gears when climbing which happened at Valencia.

 

[Big Doopie]

If he improves his climbing ability, he can become a GC rider as good as Porte and at the same time overall a way more complete rider than Porte ever was.

i actually don’t think it is climbing “ability” that is the issue. He has proven he can climb, even steep gradients several times.

it is consistency, not having a bad day, and being able to string several mountain climbs together in one day and over successive days.

kid can climb any single mountain on any single day as well if not better than Hinault did.

can he do it repeatedly however…?

 

[Oldermanish]

i actually don’t think it is climbing “ability” that is the issue. He has proven he can climb, even steep gradients several times.

it is consistency, not having a bad day, and being able to string several mountain climbs together in one day and over successive days.

kid can climb any single mountain on any single day as well if not better than Hinault did.

can he do it repeatedly however…?

With time, miles, discipline and rest. He was in a hospital bed how many months ago?

 

[Big Doopie]

With time, miles, discipline and rest. He was in a hospital bed how many months ago?

sure. My comment was not a criticism btw. Just stating what I believe can be observed so far.

 

[Hugo Koblet]

With time, miles, discipline and rest. He was in a hospital bed how many months ago?

18 months ago. Of course the crash took it's toll on him, but let's be real: in his general development it doesn't matter anymore now a year and a half later.

 

[Bolder]

He generally does high rpm while climbing, but i've also seen that when he struggles, he keeps pushing a big gear for some reason.


Not only did he start at Burgos and Poland, he also won them. Neither had a TT.

Even if he fails at Itzulia, you could not conclude he could not become a GC rider. He finished 11th at TA and was 13th in the queen stage, well ahead of Kelderman, Hart, Lopez, Uran... He's only 22. When any other 22 year old finishes 11th in GC and has a great TT, people would be keeping an eye on him for future GC's. But because it's Evenepoel, finishing 11th should mean he should quit trying. lol

but he's not "any other 22 year old." That's why this thread had X-thousand mostly inane comments. (including some from me...)

Anyway, of course you're right about week-long races not necessarily being an accurate predictor of GT success. He could be a Geraint Thomas and win his first GT at age 32 or whatever, or even a Pappy Horner and win at 42...

 

[Netserk]

Some riders have a track record of being nowhere until their main goals, other riders have a track record of fighting for the win whenever possible. Seems rational to evaluate such riders differently.

 

[AlfaLum]

Any news on Remco?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

18 months ago. Of course the crash took it's toll on him, but let's be real: in his general development it doesn't matter anymore now a year and a half later.

Ofourse it still matters. It's over a full year out the development he would normally have had up til now. I'm still not convinced he's back to the level he had 2 years ago, let alone where he could have been otherwise right now.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

So in 6,7,8 years time and he still hasn't achieved what most on here reckon he can achieve, will the crash still be the blame? Maybe he isn't able to replicate what he did in the juniors into the seniors, he did take a big jump up in class against bigger, stronger riders and harder races, skipping a big chunk of development. Maybe he needs to aim at races he is more suited for at the moment and go for GC in a GT when the time is right, and also at a team more suitable for GT's.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

I think, if Remco climbs in Tour of the Basque Country just as he climbed in Tirreno, he will have problems reaching the Top-20 in the final GC.

I remember an interview with Chris Horner, ca. 10 years ago. He said that, as far as startlist, stage profiles and aggressiveness of the competition are concerned, Basque Country is the second hardest race in the calendar just behind the Tour de France.

I think this is nowadays even more true than when Horner said this.

If Remco has Tirreno‘s legs in the Basque Country, he will probably lose 20 minutes in the final GC. So I hope he will be clearly improved, because I like watching his attacking style, and I like when he‘s racing for the win.

 

[Big Doopie]

So in 6,7,8 years time and he still hasn't achieved what most on here reckon he can achieve, will the crash still be the blame?

unfortunately, it could be.

Merckx crashed badly at Blois in the winter of 69. Hard to imagine, but that crash hampered him the rest of his career and he never ever climbed like he had at 1969 TDF. He was often uncomfortable when climbing and constantly adjusting his seat height to alleviate the pain.

so it is all relative, but unfortunately yes it may affect Remco’s career potential no matter how much that will fuel debate by armchair pundits.

 

[Blobs]

So in 6,7,8 years time and he still hasn't achieved what most on here reckon he can achieve, will the crash still be the blame? Maybe he isn't able to replicate what he did in the juniors into the seniors, he did take a big jump up in class against bigger, stronger riders and harder races, skipping a big chunk of development. Maybe he needs to aim at races he is more suited for at the moment and go for GC in a GT when the time is right, and also at a team more suitable for GT's.

Unfortunately there will always be a sense of "could-have-been" with Remco. Before his crash he seemed to be getting better every week, and now after hisi crash, he doesn't seem to have matched the level he had before, and he's clearly not developing at the same rate.

Even if he does end up having a hugely successful career, it will be difficult not to wonder what could have happened without the crash.

 

[Oldermanish]

So in 6,7,8 years time and he still hasn't achieved what most on here reckon he can achieve, will the crash still be the blame? Maybe he isn't able to replicate what he did in the juniors into the seniors, he did take a big jump up in class against bigger, stronger riders and harder races, skipping a big chunk of development. Maybe he needs to aim at races he is more suited for at the moment and go for GC in a GT when the time is right, and also at a team more suitable for GT's.

He's unique in his initial promise and Belgium lost their mind. Thatpromise should have been deeply re-evaluated (probably was) after his recovery and should be an ongoing analysis. Your point is totally spot on for re-setting his confidence, choice of events and ambitions. He has more pressure to perform, however; whether it's external or his own doing. If he has that process under control he could resume his improvement.
That said, the graphic from the Roglic thread probably is in his head and everyone that advises him: All rider salaries in the top 20 of earnings have won stages in the Tour. The top 5 earners won the Tour. Roglic is #12 on earnings. Remco isn't in that graphic.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He's unique in his initial promise and Belgium lost their mind. Thatpromise should have been deeply re-evaluated (probably was) after his recovery and should be an ongoing analysis. Your point is totally spot on for re-setting his confidence, choice of events and ambitions. He has more pressure to perform, however; whether it's external or his own doing. If he has that process under control he could resume his improvement.
That said, the graphic from the Roglic thread probably is in his head and everyone that advises him: All rider salaries in the top 20 of earnings have won stages in the Tour. The top 5 earners won the Tour. Roglic is #12 on earnings. Remco isn't in that graphic.

You have anything to back that up, or you're just making things up as you go along? He refused much bigger contracts by other teams. Lefevere himself has testified that Evenepoel isn't in it for the money because he had much better propositions. He also said Evenepoel was the first to offer they cut or withheld his wages during the covid break/lockdown.

 

[Oldermanish]

You have anything to back that up, or you're just making things up as you go along? He refused much bigger contracts by other teams. Lefevere himself has testified that Evenepoel isn't in it for the money because he had much better propositions. He also said Evenepoel was the first to offer they cut or withheld his wages during the covid break/lockdown.

I think the term I'd use is SPECULATING, rather than "making things up...". What he did in the past is as much old news as the current speculation on his potential. It's great that he had the option to accept less money and has the support system to do that. Experience suggests that most professional athletes that are further in their career begin thinking about such trivial things as salary. Particularly athletes that have been injured and see a shorter career payday period in the future.
He may race purely for love but I would guess the comparison to other salaries may creep into his conciousness at some point. Impossible?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think the term I'd use is SPECULATING, rather than "making things up...". What he did in the past is as much old news as the current speculation on his potential. It's great that he had the option to accept less money and has the support system to do that. Experience suggests that most professional athletes that are further in their career begin thinking about such trivial things as salary. Particularly athletes that have been injured and see a shorter career payday period in the future.
He may race purely for love but I would guess the comparison to other salaries may creep into his conciousness at some point. Impossible?

Nothing is impossible. But your speculation is based on nothing.

 

[Oldermanish]

Nothing is impossible. But your speculation is based on nothing.

If that preserves your view of the current situation; go with it.

 

[Jungle Cycle]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509192970192441344

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1509192970192441344

 

[Big Doopie]

https://twitter.com/i/web/status/1509192970192441344

View: https://twitter.com/NaichacaCycling/status/1509192970192441344

good to hear.

i have no doubt the kid can climb on any given day -- in fact, he has shown that many times.

the question is can he stop having the bad days (which he has also had) -- whether that is a residue from the crash or not...