I didn't follow the Veulta as closely but if Enric Mas can match Remcos climbing performances for the most part and from whom a not in best shape Roglic is a real threat, how can someone think he would beat Vingegaard or Pogacar or at least get them to a point where they can barely follow his wheel and in best case outsprint him at the end?
If he wants to compete with those two he needs to find a whole other level. In TTs it might be close, he might even gain a few seconds, but even that I'm far from convinced of...
But everywhere else he would'nt stand a chance (on his current level) and that is not even considering that he might slow down more than others at the end of a 3 weeks GT.
Also I'm not sure of how much improvement we can still expect from him at this point, he is only 22 but at the same time already a seasoned veteran. I believe won't see anything drastic.
So this is kind of a flashback as well as the theme throughout this thread in many instances, starting in 2018. Basically, Remco won't improve significantly, hence he will not be able to:
Cut it as a pro. Win as a pro. Win with a solo ever again because next time they will be in his wheel. Win in WT. Win a MTF. Win a monument. Beat "the best". Become a GT/GC rider. Win a GT...? Win a GT against "the best"...?
It's his 2nd GT and the first one he might actually finish, but apparently there is already enough evidence that this time, he really has hit his limit. Now he should even be happy if he doesn't lose much time against TT'ers who have collectively beaten him 0 times in 6 encounters (3 each). Seems like he's declining before reaching his peak.
The only moment this not-in-best-shape Roglic was a real threat, was against not-in-best-shape Evenepoel after his crash. With Roglic having to resort to antics like the ones that made him crash. He wanted to drop him at the start of a 22k climb, but had to settle for the final 1.5k after cowering in his wheel for 15k because Evenepoel was simply too strong. This not-in-best-shape Roglic was also stronger than all the others at the Vuelta, including 90% of the Giro's top 20 GC.
And while he is indeed a seasoned pro, he is only 22 and lost 9 months + a season getting back to his best level after a crash.
We all know the TDF is a different race. We all know winning the Vuelta against Mas, Roglic, Lopez, Almeida, Hindley, O'Connor... isn't the same as winning the TDF against Vingegaard, Pogacar etc. But i see no reason why he wouldn't be able to improve. Just by not crashing (which you find a valid excuse for Roglic) he would already improve greatly on his current result as his crash cost him in two main stages. His team isn't at full strength nor max potential, and to be fair, i don't think Vingegaard would have beaten Pogacar without the strength of his team either. Does it invalidate his win? Of course not, so there is still plenty to improve.