Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Riek s]

If he wins the best thing they can do is get on a midnight flight to Australia.

Yeah i don't think it will matter a lot for the ITT. He will have very heavy legs from the Vuelta & the jetlag. Top 5 would already be on the high end.

The RR might be a bit better recuperation wise. The question then becomes, does he have enough mentally and physically to make a difference against guys who worked towards the WC and don't have the jetlag and do have fresh legs. We might very well see a Remco like Pogacar in San sebastian...

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Contador in Spanish in front of ES camera: Race is wide open, Evenepoel may think he has this locked, but that's not the case.
Contador in English in front of Sporza camera: Evenepoel has this locked.

 

[geisterhome]

So this is kind of a flashback as well as the theme throughout this thread in many instances, starting in 2018. Basically, Remco won't improve significantly, hence he will not be able to:

Cut it as a pro. Win as a pro. Win with a solo ever again because next time they will be in his wheel. Win in WT. Win a MTF. Win a monument. Beat "the best". Become a GT/GC rider. Win a GT...? Win a GT against "the best"...?

It's his 2nd GT and the first one he might actually finish, but apparently there is already enough evidence that this time, he really has hit his limit. Now he should even be happy if he doesn't lose much time against TT'ers who have collectively beaten him 0 times in 6 encounters (3 each). Seems like he's declining before reaching his peak.

The only moment this not-in-best-shape Roglic was a real threat, was against not-in-best-shape Evenepoel after his crash. With Roglic having to resort to antics like the ones that made him crash. He wanted to drop him at the start of a 22k climb, but had to settle for the final 1.5k after cowering in his wheel for 15k because Evenepoel was simply too strong. This not-in-best-shape Roglic was also stronger than all the others at the Vuelta, including 90% of the Giro's top 20 GC.

And while he is indeed a seasoned pro, he is only 22 and lost 9 months + a season getting back to his best level after a crash.

We all know the TDF is a different race. We all know winning the Vuelta against Mas, Roglic, Lopez, Almeida, Hindley, O'Connor... isn't the same as winning the TDF against Vingegaard, Pogacar etc. But i see no reason why he wouldn't be able to improve. Just by not crashing (which you find a valid excuse for Roglic) he would already improve greatly on his current result as his crash cost him in two main stages. His team isn't at full strength nor max potential, and to be fair, i don't think Vingegaard would have beaten Pogacar without the strength of his team either. Does it invalidate his win? Of course not, so there is still plenty to improve.

He is an outstanding rider and been one for a while. I don't know actually what people are after if they want him to improve so much. Yes I believe he is very close to his peak if he hasn't reached it already. He is still very young but also has been around for a while already. He sits comfortably on the top of the 2nd tier of GC riders, Pogacar, Vingegaard and likely also peak Roglic are better.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Probably passed you at the Pier or de Lustige Velodroom with all the crazy bikes as a child. Unless you're way, waaaay older.

For the non-Belgians, some fun pictures:

This takes me back. Always was fun to ride the weird bikes at Lustige Velodroom

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He is an outstanding rider and been one for a while. I don't know actually what people are after if they want him to improve so much. Yes I believe he is very close to his peak if he hasn't reached it already. He is still very young but also has been around for a while already. He sits comfortably on the top of the 2nd tier of GC riders, Pogacar, Vingegaard and likely also peak Roglic are better.

Yes, he's 22, started riding a bike at 17, is about to finish a GT for the first time, has been recovering and coming back from a huge crash which took 9 months + a season. Two months ago he was still the laughing stock after a bad Tour de Suisse, but you seem to have the ability to determine he is near or at his peak and where exactly he falls between other GC riders.

Thanks for that.

 

[red_flanders]

Cuistax for me in Blankenberge during the summer.

Those are the pedal cars on the promenade? Did you do the crazy bikes at the velodrome?

When my brother and I were little the grandparents had us in the Penguin Club at the beach. Still remember that somehow…

This takes me back. Always was fun to ride the weird bikes at Lustige Velodroom

Yes! We loved these!

 

[houtdffan]

Yes, he's 22, started riding a bike at 17, is about to finish a GT for the first time, has been recovering and coming back from a huge crash which took 9 months + a season. Two months ago he was still the laughing stock after a bad Tour de Suisse, but you seem to have the ability to determine he is near or at his peak and where exactly he falls between other GC riders.

Thanks for that.

Thinking the poster you quoted had some of the funny stuff to smoke

Hope he's aware that at age 22, Merckx only finished 9th in GC and won 2 stages in his first GT. Mercks sure improved over the next 2 years. So why would Remco not improve at all.

It's like people forget he is actually an elite ATHLETE who decided to take up cycling due to a spat with his soccer coach. Athletes improve greatly between the ages of 22 and 24

 

[Ulle97]

Looking forward to the stage tomorrow. It has plenty of climbing but the shallow gradients of the finishing Cotos climb should suit Remco.

If he really goes hard I think he can drop everyone except perhaps Mas and win the stage in a sprint.
It's a real tempo grinder. We won't see massive gaps.

 

[Extinction]

He is an outstanding rider and been one for a while. I don't know actually what people are after if they want him to improve so much. Yes I believe he is very close to his peak if he hasn't reached it already. He is still very young but also has been around for a while already. He sits comfortably on the top of the 2nd tier of GC riders, Pogacar, Vingegaard and likely also peak Roglic are better.

You do realize he started cycling late and the best years for cyclists are 25-28?

 

[Riek s]

One more dangerous stage and one stage to stay upright and he wins his first GT

His recovery up till now seems to be very good. Especially if we consider his level during san sebastian (which was 2 levels higher than most of his opponents that were in the vuelta).
The power he and Mas are still pushing is up with the best after 3 weeks. So they are really on a high level. Just like Norway, the numbers don't lie.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Those are the pedal cars on the promenade? Did you do the crazy bikes at the velodrome?

When my brother and I were little the grandparents had us in the Penguin Club at the beach. Still remember that somehow…

Yes! We loved these!

Cuistax are bikes that have a car like frame.

I was convinced that the weird bikes were there to keep the speeds down.

 

[rm2021]

One more dangerous stage and one stage to stay upright and he wins his first GT

His recovery up till now seems to be very good. Especially if we consider his level during san sebastian (which was 2 levels higher than most of his opponents that were in the vuelta).
The power he and Mas are still pushing is up with the best after 3 weeks. So they are really on a high level. Just like Norway, the numbers don't lie.

No, that's not true. Remco and Mas numbers can't match not even close the numbers of pogacar and vingegaard.
The level at this vuelta is good but not out of this world.
Vingegaard was doing 6.35 w/kg in the last week of the tour. Outstanding.

 

[Riek s]

No, that's not true. Remco and Mas numbers can't match not even close the numbers of pogacar and vingegaard.
The level at this vuelta is good but not out of this world.
Vingegaard was doing 6.35 w/kg in the last week of the tour. Outstanding.

FYI:

MONASTERIO DE TENTUDIA (last 3.98 km, 7.61 %, 303 m)
Almeida: 9:24, 25.40 Kph, VAM 1934 m/h

MONASTERIO DE TENTUDIA (last 4.01 km, 7.61 %, 305 m) (est. = "½ drafting" / "65 kg standard")
25 Kph = 9:37, VAM 1903 m/h, 7.13 W/kg
24 Kph = 10:01, VAM 1827 m/h, 6.78 W/kg
23 Kph = 10:27, VAM 1751 m/h, 6.44 W/kg


from LR some other power points of Remco:

compared to:

On every point he is competitive with both of them.

 

[Big Doopie]

mas will go on penultimate climb.

still holding my breath that remco does not collapse...

and that his weak team has a good day.

 

[houtdffan]

mas will go on penultimate climb.

still holding my breath that remco does not collapse...

and that his weak team has a good day.

why not Remco go on the second to last climb instead, or set a hard tempo. Just to make attacks impossible

 

[Riek s]

mas will go on penultimate climb.

still holding my breath that remco does not collapse...

and that his weak team has a good day.

Same. I'm not really worrying about Remco collapsing as i am for tactical play because his team collapsing.

why not Remco go on the second to last climb instead, or set a hard tempo. Just to make attacks impossible

Climb is not steep enough. Those in his wheel would spend so much less energy that it would allow them to attack on the final climb.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

FYI:

MONASTERIO DE TENTUDIA (last 3.98 km, 7.61 %, 303 m)
Almeida: 9:24, 25.40 Kph, VAM 1934 m/h

MONASTERIO DE TENTUDIA (last 4.01 km, 7.61 %, 305 m) (est. = "½ drafting" / "65 kg standard")
25 Kph = 9:37, VAM 1903 m/h, 7.13 W/kg
24 Kph = 10:01, VAM 1827 m/h, 6.78 W/kg
23 Kph = 10:27, VAM 1751 m/h, 6.44 W/kg


from LR some other power points of Remco:

compared to:

On every point he is competitive with both of them.

Thanks for posting this. You are indeed to correct that, just looking at this selection of performances without context, Remco’s numbers look very good in comparison. Very impressive. Sierra Nevada was not considered great, but interesting to see that it’s almost identical to Vingegaard and Pogacar on Ventoux in 2021 in terms of W/kg. Usually when I post these numbers, I get a bunch of “yeah but,” FYI.

 

[Riek s]

Thanks for posting this. You are indeed to correct that, just looking at this selection of performances without context, Remco’s numbers look very good in comparison. Very impressive. Sierra Nevada was not considered great, but interesting to see that it’s almost identical to Vingegaard and Pogacar on Ventoux in 2021 in terms of W/kg. Usually when I post these numbers, I get a bunch of “yeah but,” FYI.

Ow for sure. Numbers are numbers and while we compare them easily, the way it is ridden is different. Either due to the parcour or how riders ride . But its the only number based way we can compare.
I stated this before in this topic, but the riding style of Remco isn't flashy, but he puts out higher W/kg then the others doing so, for example Erlaitz. So its not because others are sprinting the final part, that they climbed faster.

I also believe REmco numbers might be averaging a bit higher because he typically riders a high tempo while attacking very early which might give a better ratio than starting slower with drag and finishing faster.
FYI: As illustration: Mas is estimated to have pushed 0.01W/kg less than Remco on Sierra Nevada because of the drag advantage he had, while remco basically rode the whole climb without it. (i'm ignoring the small part Vervaeke did )

 

[houtdffan]

Climb is not steep enough. Those in his wheel would spend so much less energy that it would allow them to attack on the final climb.

Unless Remco attacks. He can just drop the others. Then, they have to chase, which negates the advantage of drafting (they wait for their doms, they'll be shipping 1-2 minutes off the bat)

 

[Big Doopie]

Unless Remco attacks. He can just drop the others. Then, they have to chase, which negates the advantage of drafting (they wait for their doms, they'll be shipping 1-2 minutes off the bat)

i admire your optimism and it would be fabulous for him to finish with a win.

however the reality is he could not drop mas yesterday and he must secure the GT win above everything else. Which likely means riding conservatively and defensively.

if he has great legs and his opponents are burned out at top of last climb, I could see him going over the top of everyone and if he manages a gap then he could be gone on the plateau to the finish.

personally I saw his body change shape and he was practically gnawing on his handlebars to follow Mas at the end yesterday. So securing the Vuelta win would be good enough for me. It would also change the narrative of his career a bit. No more can he/will win a GT? That will be over. And he/we can focus on what is looking like a fabulous career.

 

[houtdffan]

i admire your optimism and it would be fabulous for him to finish with a win.

however the reality is he could not drop mas yesterday and he must secure the GT win above everything else. Which likely means riding conservatively and defensively.

if he has great legs and his opponents are burned out at top of last climb, I could see him going over the top of everyone and if he manages a gap then he could be gone on the plateau to the finish.

personally I saw his body change shape and he was practically gnawing on his handlebars to follow Mas at the end yesterday. So securing the Vuelta win would be good enough for me. It would also change the narrative of his career a bit. No more can he/will win a GT? That will be over. And he/we can focus on what is looking like a fabulous career.

If Remco was struggling, Mas was in worse shape given how easily Remco dropped Mas at the end. Mas had no answer

 

[Big Doopie]

If Remco was struggling, Mas was in worse shape given how easily Remco dropped Mas at the end. Mas had no answer

but dropping someone on a climb and out kicking them are two different skills/talents. Mas came close to dropping Remco on the climb twice in my estimation. Remco recovered in his wheel and out kicked him.

i don’t think Mas is a stronger rider. I just wonder how close Remco may be to breaking point. And he really has no team at this point.

 

[Andre]

I was traveling so I missed stage 18. I then saw the recorded today. Chris Horner said to watch the last 13 kilometers, so I did. Remco looked as strong as ever, and I believe he could have gone on the offensive any time but he didn't really have to. He could have easily dropped Mas any time towards the end. This looks like Mas at the best form of his life (even though he's such a negative rider). Ayuso and O'Connor and Rodriguez, Lopez and Almeida are also at the top of their form but nobody can stay with Remco...not even Roglic could overcome him. This has been a great Vuelta so far. Vingo and Tadej are taking notes cause Remco is on his way. Go Remco Go!!!

 

[houtdffan]

but dropping someone on a climb and out kicking them are two different skills/talents. Mas came close to dropping Remco on the climb twice in my estimation. Remco recovered in his wheel and out kicked him.

i don’t think Mas is a stronger rider. I just wonder how close Remco may be to breaking point. And he really has no team at this point.

And had Remco not slowed down midway through the climb, Mas would have lost a good 45 seconds on the climb. Remco didn't want to give O'Connor a tow (which was a mistake as O'Connor is no threat)

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

And had Remco not slowed down midway through the climb, Mas would have lost a good 45 seconds on the climb. Remco didn't want to give O'Connor a tow (which was a mistake as O'Connor is no threat)

I think Evenepoel bit off more than he could chew at that moment, and Verona emptied himself to bring Mas back.