The first weekend is basically created for him... Win a stage and the yellow jersey there. Then during the first mountain stage, just let yourself drop.How is he going to wear the yellow jersey if he is going to lose 20 minutes to be able to go into breaks and fight for stagewins? Riding the Tour as a stagehunter is nothing like riding the Tour for GC. He will learn nothing from it, except that he can beat Kragh Andersen or Pinot in a breakaway. We already know that he can, he already knows that. The moment he gets the yellow jersey he will want to fight for it, which makes no sense if he isn't in form to do so. And even if he isn't in form, they are not going to give the yellow jersey to him, like they gave pink to Armirail.
I don't think he can recover from covid, get in a good enough form to content podium at the Tour. And if you can't do that, why even bother trying that and get the whole country on your case again... Just ride the Tour to experience it, have fun, and win some stages. Use it as a training for WC, and win the TT as well as the road race. You can still go on holiday and focus on Canadian and Italian classics afterwards.