Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Scarponi]

And if he goes AWOL on Strava, it'll be even worse!

Can always argue about Remco vs Roglic for another month

 

[ManicJack]

Can always argue about Remco vs Roglic for another month

Has the Vuelta route been announced?

 

[Ulle97]

Has the Vuelta route been announced?

Yes..... significantly more mountainous than last year. The 2 Pyrenean stages are going to be very selective, especially the stage to Tourmalet.

Noticeably, there are very few TT kms this year.
The last stage has the potential for carnage. It's a hilly classics style stage that could see big damage IF raced aggressively.

 

[ManicJack]

Yes..... significantly more mountainous than last year. The 2 Pyrenean stages are going to be very selective, especially the stage to Tourmalet.

Noticeably, there are very few TT kms this year.
The last stage has the potential for carnage. It's a hilly classics style stage that could see big damage IF raced aggressively.

Thanks. Just looked at it and you are correct about the mountains compared to last year. This will be a good test for Remco if he chooses to race it. Using his win last year as comparison is almost meaningless.

 

[Andre]

Can always argue about Remco vs Roglic for another month

There are many subjects to still discuss: how he can win Lombardia; what weight should he bring to La Vuelta; which riders should he bring to that GT; the list is endless.

 

[topcat]

Can always argue about Remco vs Roglic for another month

Inconclusive so far. And if one of them gets the upper hand, there will be some weasel excuse from the other side.

 

[Berflamand]

Since there's only a small race around France in the coming days that isn't worthy enough for the World Champion to grace with his presence, he's taking some time off on Ibiza:

Also, I saw this (meaningless but interesting) stat on twitter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673988850727759872

View: https://twitter.com/FerrexCS/status/1673988850727759872

 

[Andre]

He looks thinner

 

[Berniece]

He looks thinner

Getting ready for that Vuelta shape

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

He looks thinner

... than Theate.

 

[Big Doopie]

Carapaz crash. Exactly why I don’t want Remco wasting his career focused on GTs.

 

[Big Doopie]

Since there's only a small race around France in the coming days that isn't worthy enough for the World Champion to grace with his presence, he's taking some time off on Ibiza:

Also, I saw this (meaningless but interesting) stat on twitter:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1673988850727759872

View: https://twitter.com/FerrexCS/status/1673988850727759872

Precisely. THIS is his super power.

That’s why the constant shortening of stages/races hurts him.

For instance, if ITTs had stayed the same as in Indurain’s time Dumoulin would be a multi GT winner.

These changes actually directly affect what type of career certain riders can have.

 

[houtdffan]

Precisely. THIS is his super power.

That’s why the constant shortening of stages/races hurts him.

For instance, if ITTs had stayed the same as in Indurain’s time Dumoulin would be a multi GT winner.

These changes actually directly affect what type of career certain riders can have.

If TTs were as short as today, Contador would have only won 2 or 3 GTs

 

[Netserk]

If TTs were as short as today, Contador would have only won 2 or 3 GTs

2007 Tour
2008 Vuelta
2009 Tour
2011 Giro
2012 Vuelta
2014 Vuelta

Which of these hinged on the TT mileage?

 

[Red Rick]

2007 Tour
2008 Vuelta
2009 Tour
2011 Giro
2012 Vuelta
2014 Vuelta

Which of these hinged on the TT mileage?

Don't let a man be dissuated by reality.

I do like the assumption longer ITTs are always better for Evenepoel even though he never won one over 40km.

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

I do like the assumption longer ITTs are always better for Evenepoel even though he never won one over 40km.

There is a trend, but I think the data material is very small.
As far as I know he hasn't done any ITT over 40 km in the last two seasons except the Belgian NC two weeks ago where he came off a Tour de Swiss where he clearly showed his form being mediocre and he crashed.

In 2021 he raced 3 long ITTs
Olympics - did really bad, but he wasn't impressive in the RR either. Bad form?
WC - 3rd behind Ganna and WVA. Okay, but not exceptionally good. He was in good form at the EC a week before, so this was probably close to his limit this season.
Chrono des Nations - Far behind Kung and beaten by several mediocre riders. He was bad in Lombardia a few days before, bad form?

In 2020 he didn't do any and in 2019 he did one where he was second behind Ganna at the WC.

So during (soon) 5 seasons as a pro he's done only 5 ITTs longer than 40 km and 3 of them where in the 2021 season where he was getting back after that injury, so I feel that the data material is not good enough to give a good verdict on what he's actually capable of at ITTs.

Seen in a GT context. Is there any of the active GC riders that has ever won an ITT over 40 km more than Roglics gold at the Olympics? As far as I've seen not even Thomas has won one. (Here Taxus can come say "Froome has won one and he's a GC rider going for the fifth next year!")

 

[houtdffan]

2007 Tour
2008 Vuelta
2009 Tour
2011 Giro
2012 Vuelta
2014 Vuelta

Which of these hinged on the TT mileage?

Contador had a large time gain in the 2012 TT. Fuente de probably plays out differently if Contador hadn't gained so much time in the TT

In 2014, much of the time gap to Froome was due to the TT as well

Most of his time gain in 2009 was also in the TT (there were 2 ITTs where Contador gained large time, plus the TTT)

 

[Netserk]

Good one, Contador couldn't win the 2009 Tour in the mountains.

 

[EddyMazzoleni]

There is a trend, but I think the data material is very small.
As far as I know he hasn't done any ITT over 40 km in the last two seasons except the Belgian NC two weeks ago where he came off a Tour de Swiss where he clearly showed his form being mediocre and he crashed.

In 2021 he raced 3 long ITTs
Olympics - did really bad, but he wasn't impressive in the RR either. Bad form?
WC - 3rd behind Ganna and WVA. Okay, but not exceptionally good. He was in good form at the EC a week before, so this was probably close to his limit this season.
Chrono des Nations - Far behind Kung and beaten by several mediocre riders. He was bad in Lombardia a few days before, bad form?

In 2020 he didn't do any and in 2019 he did one where he was second behind Ganna at the WC.

So during (soon) 5 seasons as a pro he's done only 5 ITTs longer than 40 km and 3 of them where in the 2021 season where he was getting back after that injury, so I feel that the data material is not good enough to give a good verdict on what he's actually capable of at ITTs.

Seen in a GT context. Is there any of the active GC riders that has ever won an ITT over 40 km more than Roglics gold at the Olympics? As far as I've seen not even Thomas has won one. (Here Taxus can come say "Froome has won one and he's a GC rider going for the fifth next year!")

In 2019 Dennis won the WC, Ganna was 3rd 40+ behinf Evenepoel.

But i agree with you, too small of a sample size to reallt judge is ability. Also, even if he has somewhat less chance of winning against the specialist, what really counts in the context of a GT is how much time you can gain on the other GC guys, and in the 2021 WC, 44 km long, he put more than 1 min into Pogacar

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

In 2019 Dennis won the WC, Ganna was 3rd 40+ behinf Evenepoel.

Of course, Ganna won the two following years - but not '19.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

There is a trend, but I think the data material is very small.
As far as I know he hasn't done any ITT over 40 km in the last two seasons except the Belgian NC two weeks ago where he came off a Tour de Swiss where he clearly showed his form being mediocre and he crashed.

In 2021 he raced 3 long ITTs
Olympics - did really bad, but he wasn't impressive in the RR either. Bad form?
WC - 3rd behind Ganna and WVA. Okay, but not exceptionally good. He was in good form at the EC a week before, so this was probably close to his limit this season.
Chrono des Nations - Far behind Kung and beaten by several mediocre riders. He was bad in Lombardia a few days before, bad form?

In 2020 he didn't do any and in 2019 he did one where he was second behind Ganna at the WC.

So during (soon) 5 seasons as a pro he's done only 5 ITTs longer than 40 km and 3 of them where in the 2021 season where he was getting back after that injury, so I feel that the data material is not good enough to give a good verdict on what he's actually capable of at ITTs.

Seen in a GT context. Is there any of the active GC riders that has ever won an ITT over 40 km more than Roglics gold at the Olympics? As far as I've seen not even Thomas has won one. (Here Taxus can come say "Froome has won one and he's a GC rider going for the fifth next year!")

Let Rick think he has something going here. Like people clinging to the belief he couldn't win a GT because he had not won one yet, until he did. I mean it makes sense for a guy with his capacities, going for 50km raid attacks at the end of tough races, to not be able to do 40k TT's. Makes sense, right.

In 2019, at 19 years of age, he was only beaten by Dennis (who beat Dumoulin and Campenaerts in their heyday) who had gone off the radar for months in order only to prepare for this race, a hilly 54km TT. He didn't race any long TT's before his crash in 2020. Every result from 2021 should not be taken as reference as he was still working to get into his best form. Furthermore Chrono des Nations was a last minute decision, he was not prepared for it and actually had planned to already be on vacation. The only other long TT he did since, was two weeks ago, the NC's where he crashed in the rain. Basically the only TT to use as a basis for argumentation is his 2nd place at 19 y.o. in the WCC 2019, of 54km. This proves he is not that good in long TT's.

He won a 35km TT in the Giro with covid. But i'm sure fully healthy he wouldn't be able to win that TT in case it was 5km longer. He won a 33km TT in Algarve with a minute to Küng, and more to Foss, Hayter... But i'm sure he would have lost a minute in case that TT was 7km longer. Right? Right.

 

[houtdffan]

Good one, Contador couldn't win the 2009 Tour in the mountains.

Doesn't change the fact that it's an entirely different race without the TTs

For one, he's likely the time difference between Armstrong he lost on the crosswind stage. Thus, he may not have been allowed to attack on Verbier

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

Thus, he may not have been allowed to attack on Verbier

He wasn't allowed, he just killed them all off anyway.

 

[houtdffan]

Evenepoel: "Het doet me niet zoveel dat ik de Tour niet rijd, het is een extra motivatie" | sporza

Uitgerekend op de dag dat de Ronde van Frankrijk van start ging, organiseerde Remco Evenepoel in zijn eigen gouw de R.EV Ride. In de marge daarvan werd ook de R.EV Brussels Cycling Academy voorgesteld. Maar uiteraard was de Tour de France nooit ver weg.

sporza.be

It was clear pretty quickly that I wasn't in the shape to ride the Tour," says Evenepoel (from google translate)

Think had Suisse went better, Remco would have been to the tour. But it was clear that he couldn't win. Best he could have done is a 1995 Jalabert top 5 and a possible green jersey (still cannot believe how good Remco has become at sprinting when he was so bad at it just 2 years ago)

 

[SHAD0W93]

Evenepoel: "Het doet me niet zoveel dat ik de Tour niet rijd, het is een extra motivatie" | sporza

Uitgerekend op de dag dat de Ronde van Frankrijk van start ging, organiseerde Remco Evenepoel in zijn eigen gouw de R.EV Ride. In de marge daarvan werd ook de R.EV Brussels Cycling Academy voorgesteld. Maar uiteraard was de Tour de France nooit ver weg.

sporza.be

It was clear pretty quickly that I wasn't in the shape to ride the Tour," says Evenepoel (from google translate)

Think had Suisse went better, Remco would have been to the tour. But it was clear that he couldn't win. Best he could have done is a 1995 Jalabert top 5 and a possible green jersey (still cannot believe how good Remco has become at sprinting when he was so bad at it just 2 years ago)

I would think the only way Evenepoel wins green is with 3-4 TTs and some LBL stages with the sprinters only getting two wins at most. But then Pog or WVA would be the favorite for green.