Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

The Tour itself will sort out the rankings nicely.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

@Logic-is-your-friend Are you being willfully obtuse to generate an argument here? What makes you think I am ignoring all other factors? Remco wouldn’t be in the top 10 if that was the case. Of course context plays a role. Roglic also arguably would have won the Vuelta without team dynamics coming into play, as he was the strongest in the first half and stronger than anyone bar Vingegaard in the back half. I won’t be appalled if you or anyone puts Pogacar in the second position though. Go for it.

I'm not being obtuse at all. Simply pointing out how you are skewing arguments to fit your bias. You put the winner of the Giro ahead of the 2nd of the Tour, and even though Pogacar had broken his wrist in Liège and did not have a clean run up to the Tour, you ignore it and fault him for "blowing up" in the Tour. On the other hand, you claim this is based on recent results. And you put Thomas, 2nd in the Giro, ahead of the winner of both the latest Vuelta and the previous Vuelta. So the 2nd spot of the Giro beats both latest winners of the Vuelta, but the 2nd of the Tour (without the best prep) does not beat the winner of the giro?

No offense, but it makes little sense and is down to bias. No problem, but that's just my opinion.

Let's put it differently. You have to gamble your house on who would finish ahead if they'd all focus on the next GT, you'd bet on Thomas and Kuss beating Evenepoel? On Roglic beating Pogacar?

 

[Extinction]

Well, as I see it, Vingo is the king, Pog the queen, Roglic the jack. Remco is the 10 of spades, with Kuss now for the GTs a 10/9 of hearts, although I don't see him in this deck for long. Thomas would be a jack, but his time has passed, whereas Bernal could be a jack or even queen if he returns to the form of yore. Remco has the most still to proove, who could thus rise to royalty or fade to the lower deck

 

[RedheadDane]

Well, as I see it, Vingo is the king, Pog the queen, Roglic the jack. Remco is the 10 of spades, with Kuss now for the GTs a 10/9 of hearts, although I don't see him in this deck for long. Thomas would be a jack, but his time has passed, whereas Bernal could be a jack or even queen if he returns to the form of yore. Remco has the most still to proove, who could thus rise to royalty or fade to the lower deck

There are four kings in a deck of cards. Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic, and Evenepoel; they can all be kings!

 

[Netserk]

It would not have Roglic on 2, it would not have Thomas on 4, it would not have Kuss in the top 5 or ahead of Evenepoel, who also won the Vuelta yet without getting free minutes. Guy wins the Vuelta because he was gifted minutes in a breakaway, while his two stronger teammates were on a leash yet effective as a deterrent against other rivals. His only other GC win - ever - was the Tour of Utah. Evenepoel on the other hand has 1 win in 4 GT starts. First, his first Giro was ill advised, too soon after his crash and un(der) prepared. The second one, he won. The third one, he was leading when he had to stop with covid (and after he dropped out his first luitenant started riding for GC and only lost 5 minutes in the remainder of the Giro -not counting his free minutes in a break because then he would have gained time on Roglic and Thomas). The fourth was an afterthought because the second part of the season was planned around the WCC TT (which he won, on a flat course vs tanks like Ganna, Tarling...) and not the Vuelta. Two quite different goals in the same timeframe.

The "problem" for Evenepoel is that he is not a one trick pony and he has different goals in his career, goals many of his GT rivals can't even dream of. So his focus as well as his preperation is much more scattered. You can't beat Ganna on a long flat course in the most important TT of the year, when you are on GT climbing weight. But people are free to ignore the obvious of course and take his bad performances at face value. After his first Giro, there were also plenty of idiots who didn't think he could climb or ever win a GT, so that's fine.

I too had Thomas in 4th. In a stage race power ranking, I value what Thomas did in the '22 Tour and the '23 Giro higher than what Evenepoel did in the '22 Vuelta.

 

[Netserk]

I don't think it's a satirical ranking, even if i don't agree with some positions. It's a fair opinion.

In "my ranking" it would be Pogacar in second instead of Roglic, Remco evenepoel a bit above.

I put Pogacar in second because the level he had during the Tour de France was very superior to the level presented by the best in the Giro.

1- Vingegaard
2- Pogacar
3- Roglic
4- Evenepoel
5-Thomas
6- Kuss
7- adam yates
8- Mas
9- hindley
10-almeida

Quite similar to mine from the Vuelta:

1. Vingegaard
2. Pogi
3. Rogla
4. Thomas
5. Evenepoel
6. Kuss
7. Hindley
8. A. Yates
9. Mas
10. Almeida

 

[Samu Cuenca]

There are four kings in a deck of cards. Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic, and Evenepoel; they can all be kings!

The two red kings are always the best though, and I guess they must be Pogačar and Evenepoel, since they've been going into the red more frequently than the other two recently.

 

[Netserk]

If I had to bet who would do better in the Tour next year, I'd have Hart above Evenepoel. But I don't think he has shown enough recently for me to put him above Evenepoel in the Power Ranking.

 

[Kwaremonster]

The Tour itself will sort out the rankings nicely.

Exactly this, provided nobody crashes ofcourse (which we know will happen).

If Remco has the right prep I have the feeling he will surprise some people and podium the Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I too had Thomas in 4th. In a stage race power ranking, I value what Thomas did in the '22 Tour and the '23 Giro higher than what Evenepoel did in the '22 Vuelta.

The '22 TDF i can somewhat understand. The '23 Giro i can not.

And do you think he is likely to replicate his '22 TDF level, improve on it or the opposite in the near future. And do you think Vuelta '22 is the best we will see out of Evenepoel? Does he give you the impression that he is maxed out? Keep in mind that Thomas turns 89 this year.

It also makes little sense to put Thomas on 4 based on the Giro (i'm talking about Vaya X3 now) but Almeida, who was not a whole lot worse, on 10.

Anyway, these lists are kind of stupid to begin with, because A could beat B in race 1. B could beat C in race 2 and C could beat A in race 3. I think working with tiers makes a lot more sense.

 

[tobydawq]

Where are Stephen Williams and Isaac del Toro in this debate?

 

[Netserk]

The '22 TDF i can somewhat understand. The '23 Giro i can not.

And do you think he is likely to replicate his '22 TDF level, improve on it or the opposite in the near future. And do you think Vuelta '22 is the best we will see out of Evenepoel? Does he give you the impression that he is maxed out? Keep in mind that Thomas turns 89 this year.

It also makes little sense to put Thomas on 4 based on the Giro (i'm talking about Vaya X3 now) but Almeida, who was not a whole lot worse, on 10.

Anyway, these lists are kind of stupid to begin with, because A could beat B in race 1. B could beat C in race 2 and C could beat A in race 3. I think working with tiers makes a lot more sense.

I think Evenepoel will do better this year than last year, and I do expect him to move up. But I do not rank the riders based on what they'll do in the future, but on what they have done up until today. Otherwise I'd put Hart and Ayuso in the top-10.

As of September 2023, I saw Thomas as a more reliable and consistent stage racer for his season goal. Vingegaard is the only rider with 3 GT podiums in 22-23, Thomas has two like Rogla and Pogi. Others only have one.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think Evenepoel will do better this year than last year, and I do expect him to move up. But I do not rank the riders based on what they'll do in the future, but on what they have done up until today. Otherwise I'd put Hart and Ayuso in the top-10.

As of September 2023, I saw Thomas as a more reliable and consistent stage racer for his season goal. Vingegaard is the only rider with 3 GT podiums in 22-23, Thomas has two like Rogla and Pogi. Others only have one.

That's basically just giving a quotation on past results and not giving an opinion on who you think is better. That's a completely different debate. The result is that your list is likely outdated the moment you make it, because it doesn't take into account fading of older riders or emerging of younger riders. I could easily see Uijtdebroeks or Ayuso eclipse Thomas this year, while neither are mentioned in the lists posted above while you put Thomas on 4. It does not take into account bad results due to accidents or illness, or other explanations for poor results.

Basically, it is a bad tool for future predictions because it leaves a lot of the context out of it.

 

[Netserk]

Who were the best stage racers last year? Of course Thomas was a level above both Ayuso and Uijtdebroeks.

You can make a list of who you expect to be the best stage racers in five years and put Almeida above Rogla, but I wouldn't find that terribly interesting.

 

[Elos Anjos]

There are four kings in a deck of cards. Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic, and Evenepoel; they can all be kings!

Yes, but who are the aces though?

 

[CyclistAbi]

Yes, but who are the aces though?

There are four aces in a deck of cards ...

 

[Samu Cuenca]

There are four aces in a deck of cards ...

So Trine, Urška, Lora and Oumi?

 

[Froome]

Exactly this, provided nobody crashes ofcourse (which we know will happen).

If Remco has the right prep I have the feeling he will surprise some people and podium the Tour.

It wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Extinction]

There are four kings in a deck of cards. Vingegaard, Pogacar, Roglic, and Evenepoel; they can all be kings!

No, there is only one king. At the level of the Tour de France, this indicates aerobic effeciency and resistance. Until evidence is provided to the contrary, now it's his majesty, King Vingegaard.

 

[FroomeWagon]

Here are the current odds for the TDF which I guess imply what the general betting public thinks of each riders "rating." Interesting that Pogacar is still considered almost 2X and 3X as likely to win as Roglic and Evenepoel , even riding the Giro.

 

[scribers]

Here are the current odds for the TDF which I guess imply what the general betting public thinks of each riders "rating." Interesting that Pogacar is still considered almost 2X and 3X as likely to win as Roglic and Evenepoel , even riding the Giro.

Someone break down these fractions for me

 

[scribers]

I would and likely will take that bet on remco.

 

[Froome]

Here are the current odds for the TDF which I guess imply what the general betting public thinks of each riders "rating." Interesting that Pogacar is still considered almost 2X and 3X as likely to win as Roglic and Evenepoel , even riding the Giro.

There's only one guy who can beat vingegaard after getting the hard miles.

 

[Berniece]

Someone break down these fractions for me

Vingegaard: 54.55%
Pogacar: 23.81%
Roglic: 14.29%
Evenepoel: 10.00%

 

[Froome]

Here are the current odds for the TDF which I guess imply what the general betting public thinks of each riders "rating." Interesting that Pogacar is still considered almost 2X and 3X as likely to win as Roglic and Evenepoel , even riding the Giro.

I think is expectable because the level presented by Pogacar in the last Tours is superior to the level by roglic and Remco in grand tours until today.