Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berniece]

I copied and pasted this:
“The 50th edition of the Volta ao Algarve, scheduled to take place from February 14 to 18, 2024, will start in Portimão, with the champions being crowned at the top of Malhão in Loulé. An exciting addition will be the introduction of an entirely new Time Trial in Albufeira.

The only Portuguese stage race in the UCI ProSeries circuit will cover a total distance of 752.9 km, with a total elevation gain of 14,455 meters, spread over five stages. The finish of each stage will be marked by bonuses, and the winner of the intermediate sprint in each stage will be awarded a bonus of 6 seconds.”

On top of that, here are the stage profiles. Basically Evenepoel needs to finish with the best on the second stage, and he should win the GC. If he's already in decent shape, he could win 3 of the 5 stages, but let's start with 1 stage and the podium

Spoiler: Stage 1

Spoiler: Stage 2

Spoiler: Stage 3

Spoiler: Stage 4

Spoiler: Stage 5

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

On top of that, here are the stage profiles. Basically Evenepoel needs to finish with the best on the second stage, and he should win the GC. If he's already in decent shape, he could win 3 of the 5 stages, but let's start with 1 stage and the podium

Spoiler: Stage 1

Spoiler: Stage 2

Spoiler: Stage 3

Spoiler: Stage 4

Spoiler: Stage 5

Man, these stages are nearly the same every year. Foia is where he won in 2020 and where he got boxed in in the sprint in 2022. Last year Cort pipped Van Wilder on the line. Guys like Küng, Ganna, Van Avermaet... finished this climb with merely seconds behind the winner. Basically not crashing means you will finish "with the best". I assume a guy like Van Aert should easily win here if he is in decent shape. Even on Molhao, which is a lot steeper but shorter, more of a mur-type finish, differences with guys like Ganna and Küng in the past stay below 20-30 seconds. So it will come down to the TT, as usual.

 

[Berniece]

Man, these stages are nearly the same every year. Foia is where he won in 2020 and where he got boxed in in the sprint in 2022. Last year Cort pipped Van Wilder on the line. Guys like Küng, Ganna, Van Avermaet... finished this climb with merely seconds behind the winner. Basically not crashing means you will finish "with the best". I assume a guy like Van Aert should easily win here if he is in decent shape. Even on Molhao, which is a lot steeper but shorter, more of a mur-type finish, differences with guys like Ganna and Küng in the past stay below 20-30 seconds. So it will come down to the TT, as usual.

I'm really bad at remembering finishes and or how it went last time. I just don't pay attention to it, and never store that information in my brain. So I only look at the profile and thought they could make a difference if they go hard enough. But apparently that's wrong when I hear you. Would this also be the case if SOQ sets a high pace 26km's out? Every hill go close to full gas, like they do at Liege.

 

[Froome]

Man, these stages are nearly the same every year. Foia is where he won in 2020 and where he got boxed in in the sprint in 2022. Last year Cort pipped Van Wilder on the line. Guys like Küng, Ganna, Van Avermaet... finished this climb with merely seconds behind the winner. Basically not crashing means you will finish "with the best". I assume a guy like Van Aert should easily win here if he is in decent shape. Even on Molhao, which is a lot steeper but shorter, more of a mur-type finish, differences with guys like Ganna and Küng in the past stay below 20-30 seconds. So it will come down to the TT, as usual.

They always do the same climbs every year, because there's isn't another options in Algarve, the south of Portugal is not very mountainous, specially Algarve. It's a shame not having a world series race in the north of Portugal, there is a lot of climbs there, with very hilly roads.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I'm really bad at remembering finishes and or how it went last time. I just don't pay attention to it, and never store that information in my brain. So I only look at the profile and thought they could make a difference if they go hard enough. But apparently that's wrong when I hear you. Would this also be the case if SOQ sets a high pace 26km's out? Every hill go close to full gas, like they do at Liege.

In 2020 Almeida went balls out in pacing the group up Foia and it was still a sprint of maybe 15 guys or so. Then Evenepoel started sprinting and won with a wheel's length from Schachmann. Not exactly the light climber type either. Cort beat Van Wilder last year, similar type of rider as Schachmann and there were still 30 guys going into the last 1k. In 2022 it was a small bunch with that crash (Higuita and Foss?), Hayter (who won in 2021) was up there and Küng lost 18 seconds.

That's how easy it is. If Evenepoel wants to go solo early (before the climb), it could be a perfect climb for him, and maybe he could do it if there was no TT, but with the TT, there is no reason for him to try such a thing. He'll distance the true TT'ers just enough on Foia and Malhao so they can not make up for it in the TT. The only threat (in that regard) this year would be Van Aert.

They always do the same climbs every year, because there's isn't another options in Algarve, the south of Portugal is not very mountainous, specially Algarve. It's a shame not having a world series race in the north of Portugal, there is a lot of climbs there, with very hilly roads.

I'm aware. I wasn't knocking the climbs or the race, just pointing out that we have seen this finish plenty of times so we can predict how it will pan out. I don't know the region or the climb, so i don't know if there is a way to maybe go up the climb more than once, from a different side of the "mountain".

 

[Berniece]

In 2020 Almeida went balls out in pacing the group up Foia and it was still a sprint of maybe 15 guys or so. Then Evenepoel started sprinting and won with a wheel's length from Schachmann.

Ah that was this race, that I can remember. Because it was quite close. Evenepoel went early, and Schachmann wasn't able to close the gap anymore. If it was 50m further Schachmann might have won.

I think you are correct that the biggest competition might be WVA, although I do expect Remco to put some time into him during the TT, and those two uphill finishes. Even if it's 10-20s in each of those 3 stages, the sum of it should be enough to win. Since Evenepoel will probably take the same amount of bonus seconds as WVA might in a sprint.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Ah that was this race, that I can remember. Because it was quite close. Evenepoel went early, and Schachmann wasn't able to close the gap anymore. If it was 50m further Schachmann might have won.

People believe that, but i never believed that. Imho, Schachmann buried himself to close the gap, and you can see Evenepoel controlling him and even accelerating as Schachmann comes closer. I think if the line was 50m further, Evenepoel could even have won with a larger margin. Schachmann, unlike Evenepoel, looked dead when he crossed the finish.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

@Netserk i saw your post but it's removed. I saw on google maps that there are two sides that go up, but maybe not all the way to the top? Ideally you need three sides though, because otherwise it's just a loop or you'd need to go up the second time the same way you came down, which would also not be ideal obviously unless your loop in the valley is long enough perhaps.

 

[Netserk]

I thought only the main way to the top was in good enough condition, but one of the other two is fine as well, so you can use Fóia as a pass. But I'd rather that they returned to the finish in town.

 

[Berniece]

People believe that, but i never believed that. Imho, Schachmann buried himself to close the gap, and you can see Evenepoel controlling him and even accelerating as Schachmann comes closer. I think if the line was 50m further, Evenepoel could even have won with a larger margin. Schachmann, unlike Evenepoel, looked dead when he crossed the finish.

Sure, but Evenepoel seemed quite eager and happy to put his finger in the air.

 

[scribers]

This is fun, happy to see the thread revived!

You're welcome!

 

[Berniece]

For the Dutch speaking fans. There's a new book about Remco Evenepoel, focusing on his youth.

Remco Evenepoel - Unrestrained provides an insight into his first seventeen years based on seventy testimonials from friends, family and trainers: from his school adventures through his football years at RSC Anderlecht, PSV, KV Mechelen and the Red Devils to his first cycling victory in Bollebeek- Asse.

Remco Evenepoel ongeremd

Charmeur, grapjas, leider, lefgozer, perfectionist en winnaar: wielrenner Remco Evenepoel is het allemaal. Op zijn vierentwintigste heeft de wereldkampioen tijdrijden en Belgische wegkampioen van 2023 al een onwaarschijnlijke jeugd achter de rug. Remco Evenepoel - Ongeremd geeft aan de hand van...

www.lannoo.be

 

[houtdffan]

FWIW, Lance thinks Remco finished 30th in the Vuelta last year

"Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard are at another level" - Lance Armstrong clear on Remco Evenepoel's chances in Tour de France 2024

On "The Move" podcast, Lance Armstrong, Johan Bruyneel and George Hincapie reflected on the upcoming cycling season, highlighting some surprising predictions that came up during the discussion.One of...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'd joke, but that belongs in the Clinic

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I actually enjoy The Move but definitely not because of Lance’s insights about current day cycling. He’s more like the color commentary guy. Did Bruyneel shoot that nonsense down or let it slide because Lance is somehow still the money train?

 

[SHAD0W93]

FWIW, Lance thinks Remco finished 30th in the Vuelta last year

"Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard are at another level" - Lance Armstrong clear on Remco Evenepoel's chances in Tour de France 2024

On "The Move" podcast, Lance Armstrong, Johan Bruyneel and George Hincapie reflected on the upcoming cycling season, highlighting some surprising predictions that came up during the discussion.One of...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'd joke, but that belongs in the Clinic

And thinks he will finish 30th in the Tour which might be just as bad.

 

[Froome]

FWIW, Lance thinks Remco finished 30th in the Vuelta last year

"Pogacar, Primoz Roglic and Jonas Vingegaard are at another level" - Lance Armstrong clear on Remco Evenepoel's chances in Tour de France 2024

On "The Move" podcast, Lance Armstrong, Johan Bruyneel and George Hincapie reflected on the upcoming cycling season, highlighting some surprising predictions that came up during the discussion.One of...

cyclinguptodate.com

I'd joke, but that belongs in the Clinic

It doesn't even make sense when he says that pogacar, roglic and vingegaard are in the same level.

The hierarchy at the moment between the four in terms of grand tours is very clear, each one of them is a step above or below.

 

[scribers]

It doesn't even make sense when he says that pogacar, roglic and vingegaard are in the same level.

The hierarchy at the moment between the four in terms of grand tours is very clear, each one of them is a step above or below.

that’s right. It’s pog. Vingo. Roglic. In that order

 

[scribers]

I actually enjoy The Move but definitely not because of Lance’s insights about current day cycling. He’s more like the color commentary guy. Did Bruyneel shoot that nonsense down or let it slide because Lance is somehow still the money train?

Bruyneel is sandbagging on remco. He won’t say what he actually thinks. Remco can win the tour and he knows it

 

[proffate]

I actually enjoy The Move but definitely not because of Lance’s insights about current day cycling. He’s more like the color commentary guy. Did Bruyneel shoot that nonsense down or let it slide because Lance is somehow still the money train?

Hincapie is a ken doll, that Spencer rando is an idiot, Lance is basically just there to throw shade on everyone... only Bruyneel knows anything, but the ratio of insight to sponsor shout-out just makes it intolerable. Lanterne Rouge is so much more listenable

 

[Tommeke2005]

It doesn't even make sense when he says that pogacar, roglic and vingegaard are in the same level.

The hierarchy at the moment between the four in terms of grand tours is very clear, each one of them is a step above or below.

The 2020 La Planche des Belles Filles individual time trial (ITT) stage made a clear statement when a 20-year-old Pogacar rode 3% faster than the competition. Armstrong was also able to distance himself from the competition by 2 to 3% in mountain ITTs during the third week of Le Tour (as in 2004), making Pogacar a clear favorite for the next ten editions, and Roglic could pack up.

Then came the 2023 Combloux ITT stage, where Vingegaard rode 5% faster than Pogacar and 9% faster than all other riders. It's interesting to note that Pogacar's gap with the rest was similar to that of 2020.
Imagine what it must feel like when, in the biggest event of your sport, you ride above 41 km/h while your fiercest adversaries can't go above 38 km/h. To replicate the feeling you should run a marathon in 1h50 or 100m in 9sec.

So yes, we are waiting for the next guy who will raise the plank, but in the meantime, in Grand Tours (and in percentage value ):

Vingegaard >>>>> Pogacar >>> Roglic > rest

I would bet on Evenepoel being somewhere between Pogacar and Roglic in the future, at least if he remains in his current team. And I don't think it's a problem (staying in his current team), we need some romanticism in this sport, not only watts. And that's what the classics are for, at least until Vingegaard seriously focus on them.

 

[Froome]

that’s right. It’s pog. Vingo. Roglic. In that order

Grand Tours

1-Vingegaard
2- Pogacar
3-Roglic
4- Remco

 

[tobydawq]

that’s right. It’s pog. Vingo. Roglic. In that order

When talking Grand Tours? Lol.

 

[scribers]

Pog in tdf
1122

Vingo
211

 

[Ilmaestro99]

Pog in tdf
1122

Vingo
211

So Vingegard is better because his average position is lower

 

[scribers]

Hincapie is a ken doll, that Spencer rando is an idiot, Lance is basically just there to throw shade on everyone... only Bruyneel knows anything, but the ratio of insight to sponsor shout-out just makes it intolerable. Lanterne Rouge is so much more listenable

Yeah but they are just like listening to a poster here with just a little more stats and race analysis mixed in. I listen to lrcp also, but will take pro cyclist and managers all day long over them