Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Andre]

I think he will go crazy in the first week. Maybe even riding in yellow. Stage 4 will be interesting already, but that it so short might be to his advantage. The climbing not so much.

He will have a bad day in the second week, I think. Stage 15.

Vingo will have a puncture on stage 14

 

[shadowrider]

Poga was already fading at the end of the Amstel last year. Without the conscious help of the disgusting racedirector, that race would have ended with a sprint between Healey and Poga. Poga probably would have won that sprint. But he would never have been able to drop Evenepoel a week later in Liège. A Poga not in topshape (anymore) wouldn't have outsprinted Evenepoel at the finishline either.
A Pogacar in topshape is (always) a bit stronger than Evenepoel (except in a flat TT). But after competing in the Giro, Pogacar will still be strong, but won't be able to destroy Evenepoel, Roglic etc. Even if he takes a lead in the first week, he won't be able to keep it during the second half of the Tour.

 

[Andre]

Poga was already fading at the end of the Amstel last year. Without the conscious help of the disgusting racedirector, that race would have ended with a sprint between Healey and Poga. Poga probably would have won that sprint. But he would never have been able to drop Evenepoel a week later in Liège. A Poga not in topshape (anymore) wouldn't have outsprinted Evenepoel at the finishline either.
A Pogacar in topshape is (always) a bit stronger than Evenepoel (except in a flat TT). But after competing in the Giro, Pogacar will still be strong, but won't be able to destroy Evenepoel, Roglic etc. Even if he takes a lead in the first week, he won't be able to keep it during the second half of the Tour.

you boldly say this

 

[Salvarani]

Vingo will have a puncture on stage 14

We will add your suggestion to the bingo card

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Can someone please tell me why people are pretending that Leo van Vliet tied a rope to Pogačar and literally towed him to the finish? He never gained 30+ seconds there, unless the car was like two meters in front of him.
Pogačar rode on a slow puncture for 30k + in that race.

 

[Red Rick]

Can someone please tell me why people are pretending that Leo van Vliet tied a rope to Pogačar and literally towed him to the finish? He never gained 30+ seconds there, unless the car was like two meters in front of him.
Pogačar rode on a slow puncture for 30k + in that race.

Ofcourse he probably wins, but you can't ignore the optics.

 

[Netserk]

Can someone please tell me why people are pretending that Leo van Vliet tied a rope to Pogačar and literally towed him to the finish? He never gained 30+ seconds there, unless the car was like two meters in front of him.
Pogačar rode on a slow puncture for 30k + in that race.

From back then:

Already on the first ascent of Cauberg did Pogi thin the group down. Rode on and pulled through with a puncture for several km. Closed a 11'' gap on Kruisberg after his bike change. Then already went on Eyserbosweg immediately afterwards and dropped everyone but Pidcock, with Healy bridging up after Pidcock took the front and lowered the pace on the top of the climb. From then on Healy didn't take a pull in the group (i.e. for ~7.2 km until Keutenberg started), and he was the first to drop on Keutenberg, losing 10'' to Pogi there with an effort 14 % slower. He could then ride with Pidcock for nearly 15 km, before he attacked on Geulhemmerberg and dropped Pidcock.

I think it's pretty fair to say they had spend different levels of energy before that moment. Healy, unlike Pidcock, had not gone too deep on any climb, and was by far the rider with least wind on his nose.

Yet he only took 12'' on Pogi on the 3.7 km following his attack. He lost 18'' to Pogi on Bemelerberg, counting from the uphill part of the bikepath through the forest.

So no, I would not call lowering the gap from 32'' to 20'' during your attack when you are the freshest only to lose more than that on the next climb as "almost able to close a gap".

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

How many of them has he won since 2022?

Two. Again many chances taken away due to injuries or illness.

 

[shadowrider]

Can someone please tell me why people are pretending that Leo van Vliet tied a rope to Pogačar and literally towed him to the finish? He never gained 30+ seconds there, unless the car was like two meters in front of him.
Pogačar rode on a slow puncture for 30k + in that race.

Just look at the video. In reality, according to witnesses and journalists, it was much worse than we imagined.
We were only shown very limited images of the pacing

 

[Extinction]

So happy to have this thread and its glorious Remco hype back, kudos to all the users, you're awesome.

Honestly I haven't seen hype, but curiosity, as in what can the lad do? The crash and consequent broken bones was not beneficial, although after Liege he would have taken a break anyway, so perhaps the timing was not so bad after all. Nevertheless, he needs to demonstrate he can handle the cols deep into the race against the best in the world. So there is hardly hype.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Honestly I haven't seen hype, but curiosity, as in what can the lad do? The crash and consequent broken bones was not beneficial, although after Liege he would have taken a break anyway, so perhaps the timing was not so bad after all. Nevertheless, he needs to demonstrate he can handle the cols deep into the race against the best in the world. So there is hardly hype.

Shoutout to @Extinction for keeping their Remco fandom checked by evidence and constantly changing data. I try to do the same with Roglic. Not always easy! I too am curious to see what Remco can do with time and opportunities.

 

[Oldermanish]

You never know what could've happened. You know, ifs, buts and whats.

If his planned progression didn't include attending the TdF and his team had no plan for a roster to support him...Those are actual occurrences in history before he crashed.

 

[Oldermanish]

With peak Pogi in the Giro and peak Jonas probably back as early as the Vuelta, the playing field is a bit more open this Tour and a real big 4 battle might actually happen. However, the main benefit of not being challenged by peak Jonas may be for Pogi and his team. It maybe due to recensy bias but I can't see how it will be easier for Remco or Roglic this Tour if you see Pogi being better than ever?

I don't necessarily see Pogacar as better, maybe other folks. I think he's been capable of his current form each year and if he avoids crashes, illness and stupid tactics he will be the major player at the Tour. I also think Roglic is his biggest concern.
All the other guys are in recovery or have shown their current form may not translate to a Tour podium, let alone some sort of major conflict.

 

[Berniece]

Can someone please tell me why people are pretending that Leo van Vliet tied a rope to Pogačar and literally towed him to the finish? He never gained 30+ seconds there, unless the car was like two meters in front of him.
Pogačar rode on a slow puncture for 30k + in that race.

The gap was 20s at the moment, that stunt of Leo is said to also helped Pogacar between 10-20s. Calculated by a professor in aerodynamics.

 

[Extinction]

Shoutout to @Extinction for keeping their Remco fandom checked by evidence and constantly changing data. I try to do the same with Roglic. Not always easy! I too am curious to see what Remco can do with time and opportunities.

Yea, I mean, I'm not blind. Remco showed amazing potential in 2019-2020, but has since had his problems. And yet what Pog and Vingo have done has left him in the wake. Now it's time to step up if he is able and my curiosity stems from this. He is still an incredible talent, however, but his build/body type I just think is a hindrance in GT mountains.

PS: I'm curious too to see what Roglic can put in the ring, although I must say the Bora situation seems to be the big question.

 

[houtdffan]

How many of them has he won since 2022?

he won LBL and the WTT last year. Only covid kept him from winning Giro

 

[Froome]

he won LBL and the WTT last year. Only covid kept him from winning Giro

This year’s Giro route, would be good for him, but he also needs to see how he goes against the other top riders.

 

[Sciatic]

Yea, I mean, I'm not blind. Remco showed amazing potential in 2019-2020, but has since had his problems. And yet what Pog and Vingo have done has left him in the wake. Now it's time to step up if he is able and my curiosity stems from this. He is still an incredible talent, however, but his build/body type I just think is a hindrance in GT mountains.

PS: I'm curious too to see what Roglic can put in the ring, although I must say the Bora situation seems to be the big question.

This just adds to the many interesting storylines to follow heading into this year’s Tour.

 

[houtdffan]

This year’s Giro route, would be good for him, but he also needs to see how he goes against the other top riders.

yes, it would have.

Suspect it would have been an old fashioned battle like we saw in the 90s due to the classic giro course, not the Gouvenou/Guillen abominations

 

[Nick2413]

Has there been much news on his recovery? I see him uploading some training rides but can’t tell much from that. I’ve been expecting him and definitely Roglic to be close to 100% for the Tour.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Has there been much news on his recovery? I see him uploading some training rides but can’t tell much from that. I’ve been expecting him and definitely Roglic to be close to 100% for the Tour.

Lefevere expects him to be in top shape for the TDF, but we already have permission from CyclistAbi to use his crash in Pais Vasco as an excuse in case he cracks. So basically we've got all bases covered.

 

[shadowrider]

From back then:

Yea, I mean, I'm not blind. Remco showed amazing potential in 2019-2020, but has since had his problems. And yet what Pog and Vingo have done has left him in the wake. Now it's time to step up if he is able and my curiosity stems from this. He is still an incredible talent, however, but his build/body type I just think is a hindrance in GT mountains.

PS: I'm curious too to see what Roglic can put in the ring, although I must say the Bora situation seems to be the big question.

This is a perfect analysis. In normal conditions Evenepoel falls short in the high mountains against Pogacar and Vingegaard. Or goes beyond his physical limit after a few mountain rides after which he has a breakdown.

In a few weeks, neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard (if he participates) will be at their absolute best. The question is whether Evenepoel can hold out longer in those circumstances. Or limit the damage so that he remains dangerous until the end of the Tour. All this assuming that Evenepoel itself will start in top condition. Which is far from certain. Roglic is in the best position as an outsider. Undoubtedly the best prepared of the four favorites (no mayor injuries and no fatigue. But his age is against him. The chance/risk of one or two bad days is increasing.

 

[AmRacer]

This is a perfect analysis. In normal conditions Evenepoel falls short in the high mountains against Pogacar and Vingegaard. Or goes beyond his physical limit after a few mountain rides after which he has a breakdown.

In a few weeks, neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard (if he participates) will be at their absolute best. The question is whether Evenepoel can hold out longer in those circumstances. Or limit the damage so that he remains dangerous until the end of the Tour. All this assuming that Evenepoel itself will start in top condition. Which is far from certain. Roglic is in the best position as an outsider. Undoubtedly the best prepared of the four favorites (no mayor injuries and no fatigue. But his age is against him. The chance/risk of one or two bad days is increasing.

So we will have a TdF with the none of the big four at their best. Or maybe big three if Jonas isn't ready.

 

[Berniece]

All this assuming that Evenepoel itself will start in top condition. Which is far from certain.

Why would we assume he won't be in top condition if Lefevere expects this, and Remco said that preparation wasn't impacted by the injury? I expect him to be in top condition, and just maybe a yellow jersey in the first week.

 

[Red Rick]

3 of the 4 are like 90% plus sure to be at their best