Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

This is a perfect analysis. In normal conditions Evenepoel falls short in the high mountains against Pogacar and Vingegaard. Or goes beyond his physical limit after a few mountain rides after which he has a breakdown.

In a few weeks, neither Pogacar nor Vingegaard (if he participates) will be at their absolute best. The question is whether Evenepoel can hold out longer in those circumstances. Or limit the damage so that he remains dangerous until the end of the Tour. All this assuming that Evenepoel itself will start in top condition. Which is far from certain. Roglic is in the best position as an outsider. Undoubtedly the best prepared of the four favorites (no mayor injuries and no fatigue. But his age is against him. The chance/risk of one or two bad days is increasing.

I don't know who will be the best trained, for Pogacar at the Giro looks like he's just logging in the training km (while winning, of course).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Evenepoel's chances to win the Tour have just increased tenfold. I'm actually going to make a bullish statement, and say that he is going to obliterate the opposition. The only rider i can see finish within an hour is Vollering.

His schedule according to wielerflits has him starting the Tour de France Femmes.

Dit is het programma van Remco Evenepoel

De Belgische hoop in bange dagen: Remco Evenepoel is hét talent voor de grote rondes. Hij kan tijdrijden als de beste en laat bergop zij hielen zien. De Aerokogel van Schepdaal mikt altijd voor het hoogst haalbare. Waar hij plant om aan de start te staan? Dit is het programma van de Belgische...

www.wielerflits.nl

 

[Elos Anjos]

Yeah, because Roglic never wins anything, or crashes much more than Evenepoel. And it's obviously normal to hype a Portuguese rider for a podiumspot in a Giro and maybe possibly more one day with a bit of luck, because he's Portuguese. But it's not normal to hype a Belgian rider who already won the Vuelta (and much more) to maybe one day win another GT... because Belgian riders have been dominating GT's in the past 4 decades, right?

[deleted content]

You can hype Remco all you want and say I have double standards. What I implied is that hyping a rider can be commendable and reasonable but also must take into account what that rider can accomplish.

I'm sure any forum user would say that the Remco hype tends sometimes to go off the charts. At this point it became a meme that you even joke with. Which doesn't mean he shouldn't be hyped, but that he shouldn't be hyped for the wrong reasons and for unreasonable goals.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Seems you do.

A tad of luck: staying in contention in the mountains and delivering a good TT. It's doable in theory, especially in Il Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You can hype Remco all you want and say I have double standards. What I implied is that hyping a rider can be commendable and reasonable but also must take into account what that rider can accomplish.

I'm sure any forum user would say that the Remco hype tends sometimes to go off the charts. At this point it became a meme that you even joke with. Which doesn't mean he shouldn't be hyped, but that he shouldn't be hyped for the wrong reasons and for unreasonable goals.

Which unreasonable goals would that be? The only thing he still has to win of a higher level than any of his other wins, is the Tour. He has won monuments, worldchampionships, a GT and other classics.

 

[Samu Cuenca]

Evenepoel's chances to win the Tour have just increased tenfold. I'm actually going to make a bullish statement, and say that he is going to obliterate the opposition. The only rider i can see finish within an hour is Vollering.

His schedule according to wielerflits has him starting the Tour de France Femmes.

Dit is het programma van Remco Evenepoel

De Belgische hoop in bange dagen: Remco Evenepoel is hét talent voor de grote rondes. Hij kan tijdrijden als de beste en laat bergop zij hielen zien. De Aerokogel van Schepdaal mikt altijd voor het hoogst haalbare. Waar hij plant om aan de start te staan? Dit is het programma van de Belgische...

www.wielerflits.nl

I sure don't hope this means he lost his balls in that crash.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I sure don't hope this means he lost his balls in that crash.

Maybe he just identifies as non-binary.

 

[Elos Anjos]

Which unreasonable goals would that be? The only thing he still has to win of a higher level than any of his other wins, is the Tour. He has won monuments, worldchampionships, a GT and other classics.

The main point of contention is to know if he can stay with the big boys in the mountains. And if he can't that would imply that perhaps he is not taylored to any race with mountains. And although Vuelta 2023 didn't end that question, it sure did provide some skepticism.
He has to prove he is GT material and that Vuelta wasn't a fluke. Yates, Carapaz, Hindley, Tao won a GT but will never be able to repeat the feat. Will Remco be in the "one-trick-pony" GT category?
No other rider has a so thick list of excuses for not delivering. That's a symptom of overhype. Of course this does not mean that all Remco fans hype in the same way.

This is overhype:

Looking at the way he was riding in 2020 up til then, and in 2022, it's quite unrealistic to argue he would not have won any of those (2x Lombardia, 2x Giro, 2x WCC RR, 2x WCC ITT, OG RR, OG ITT, 2x LBL), had he not crashed.

 

[AmRacer]

Maybe he just identifies as non-binary.

Let's see if he can pull off Dauphine.

 

[Extinction]

You can hype Remco all you want and say I have double standards. What I implied is that hyping a rider can be commendable and reasonable but also must take into account what that rider can accomplish.

I'm sure any forum user would say that the Remco hype tends sometimes to go off the charts. At this point it became a meme that you even joke with. Which doesn't mean he shouldn't be hyped, but that he shouldn't be hyped for the wrong reasons and for unreasonable goals.

In fairness, Remco came late into the sport from another one and was the most dominating junior in the history of cycling. He then went straight into the pros, as Lemond once did. However, his first pro season was essentially riding on a farm team. Fair enough, but this deprived those watching of what his potential was in races like the Tour d'Avenir, Baby Giro, etc., which would have given some indication of his future GT prospects. Then he started winning significantly in 2019-2020, which seemed to confirm his exceptional talent. But then the visissitudes came, a near death experience and two mutants that blew open the roof.

In the meantime he's won a Vuelta, Liege x 2 and Worlds, not bad by 23. The hype was thus justified, so nobody is at fault for that, but now is the time to up his game. He will need to against this Pog and hopefully a recovered Vingo. More than hype, curiosity is the guiding principle. But I'm under no illusions, for Evenepoel to live up to the hype he has to beat Pogacar and Vingegaard.

 

[AmRacer]

In fairness, Remco came late into the sport from another one and was the most dominating junior in the history of cycling. He then went strait into the pros, as Lemond once did. However, his first pro season was essentially riding on a farm team. Fair enough, but this deprived those watching what his potential was in Tour d'Aveneir, Baby Giro, etc., which would have given some indication of his future GT prospects. Then he started winning significantly in 2019-2020, which seemed to confirm his exceptional talent. But then the visissitudes came, a near death experience and two mutants that blew open the roof.

In the meantime he's won a Vuelta, Liege x 2 and Worlds, not bad by 23. The hype was thus justified, so nobody is at fault for that, but now is the time to up his game. He will need to against this Pog and hopefully a recovered Vingo. More than hype, curiosity is the guiding principle. But I'm under no illusione, for Evenepoel to live up to the hype has to beat Pogacar and Vingegaard.

And Mathieu in RVV.

 

[Berniece]

This is overhype:
Looking at the way he was riding in 2020 up til then, and in 2022, it's quite unrealistic to argue he would not have won any of those (2x Lombardia, 2x Giro, 2x WCC RR, 2x WCC ITT, OG RR, OG ITT, 2x LBL), had he not crashed

How is that overhype? You don't think he could've won 1 of them without his injury? I think he would've won the Lombardia where he crashed without that crash.

 

[Extinction]

And Mathieu in RVV.

And Pog for that matter.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

This is overhype:

It is not.

 

[AmRacer]

The thing is, Remco can avoid Mathieu a few more years at the classics Mathieu targets. Mathieu will be +30 and maybe not as hungry anymore.
Meanwhile Remco still at his prime would be favourite for RVV.

 

[kingjr]

The main point of contention is to know if he can stay with the big boys in the mountains. And if he can't that would imply that perhaps he is not taylored to any race with mountains. And although Vuelta 2023 didn't end that question, it sure did provide some skepticism.
He has to prove he is GT material and that Vuelta wasn't a fluke. Yates, Carapaz, Hindley, Tao won a GT but will never be able to repeat the feat. Will Remco be in the "one-trick-pony" GT category?
No other rider has a so thick list of excuses for not delivering. That's a symptom of overhype. Of course this does not mean that all Remco fans hype in the same way.

This is overhype:

Saying that he could have won one WC ITT in that period would be overhype?

 

[Elos Anjos]

Saying that he could have won one WC ITT in that period would be overhype?

My bad, I think Remco would in fact be in contention for the WC ITT.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

How is that overhype? You don't think he could've won 1 of them without his injury? I think he would've won the Lombardia where he crashed without that crash.

We will never know. Just like last years Giro.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

We will never know. Just like last years Giro.

Maybe you are confusing the intent of participating on a forum, with that of reading the results on ProCyclingStats. Indeed we will never know, which doesn't mean we can't make reasonable assumptions. In this case the assumption was that he would likely have won at least one of his goals during that period.

 

[AmRacer]

Maybe you are confusing the intent of participating on a forum, with that of reading the results on ProCyclingStats. Indeed we will never know, which doesn't mean we can't make reasonable assumptions. In this case the assumption was that he would likely have won at least one of his goals during that period.

Hadn't @Froome crashed, he would've at lest 5 TdF's.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Hadn't @Froome crashed, he would've at lest 5 TdF's.

Neither is that an assumption, nor is it reasonable.
Had Froome not crashed he might have won in 2019.

 

[AmRacer]

Neither is that an assumption, nor is it reasonable.
Had Froome not crashed he might have won in 2019.

2014

 

[Berniece]

2014

I always felt Nibali was in the best shape ever during that TDF. But I have no clue about the numbers he was pushing, compared to what Froome/Contador normally do.

 

[houtdffan]

Conta would have won 2014 had both stayed on their bike. See vuelta

 

[Froome]

2014

Froome could had won 8 Tours France and finished with 4.

2012 a gift to wiggins.
Crashes in 2014 and 2019.
Bad decision doing the Giro in 2018 before the Tour, instead of focus on the fifth.