Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Red Rick]

2015 Contador Giro ITT levels of injury related sandbagging?

Contador's most overrated ITT for sure. This isn't that.

 

[Extinction]

There's very few ITTs that are similar to this one in races that then also have big climbs. This TT is comparable in speed to the Algarve ones and the s/min gained are similar to that one.

I think Evenepoel tends to do better the faster an ITT is, so getting a full s/min here vs Roglic is pretty good, though think the false flat gradients of the climbs were better than shorter steeper intervals would have been, and I don't know what to make of Roglic' T1 time.

They should be close uphill and considerably better than the rest.

Roglic lost today at all intervals. I think 26 secs after the first one, but then only 4 on the second one and 8 on the last one, thus Remco was faster at each stage of the TT. However, he was less faster on the more climbing parts of the course. There wasn't a real climb today and what they will face on Fri, Sat, Sun, is incomparable, but Remco should be going pretty well uphill too. Recovery, especially having been off the bike for 3 weeks after Itzulia, and consistancy are the big questions. I'll bet Remco will be very strong on some big climbs, but perhaps has an off moment where Roglic could strike on one of them. Yet I think it's now a race between these two for GC and until the last climb I don't know if Remco will hold up. That's the big question.

 

[Salvarani]

Compare this to the Suisse ITT last year. He should be climbing very well.

He is still fresh here though. Suisse ITT was at the very end.

Big enough gap to defend himself and win the GC now.

 

[peterfin]

There's very few ITTs that are similar to this one in races that then also have big climbs. This TT is comparable in speed to the Algarve ones and the s/min gained are similar to that one.

I think Evenepoel tends to do better the faster an ITT is, so getting a full s/min here vs Roglic is pretty good, though think the false flat gradients of the climbs were better than shorter steeper intervals would have been, and I don't know what to make of Roglic' T1 time.

They should be close uphill and considerably better than the rest.

I calculated once, with some assumptions about his drag coefficient vs his competitors, that a ~3% gradient suits Remco best. At that gradient he still has a significant aerodynamic advantage vs competitors such as Roglic or Pogacar and a watt/kg advantage vs competitors such as Ganna or Tarling. So a parcours with a lot of false plat is perfect for him. This is also the type of terrain where he can 'kill' almost anyone in his wheel. The drafting can simply not compensate the difference in sustainable speed of him vs his follower on a false flat.

 

[Mayomaniac]

Contador's most overrated ITT for sure. This isn't that.

I was more speaking about the talk how much the injury would affect the TT-performance. How many seconds per km was Contador supposed to loose because of his shoulder?

 

[red_flanders]

He is still fresh here though. Suisse ITT was at the very end.

Big enough gap to defend himself and win the GC now.

It doesn't look like RE can sprint right now, some combo of shoulder limitation and explosive effort limitation due to the training change.

3 Roglič sprint wins on top of the climbs and the lead is mostly gone. 33 seconds is nice to have, but is easily lost on any one of the very tough stages coming up, let alone all of them.

Would be great to see him hang on, but not sure it matters that much for the Tour. As long as he's there or thereabouts, he can be flying for the Tour. IMO.

 

[Red Rick]

It's not gonna be 3 sprints.

 

[Berniece]

And compared to Suisse last year, surprising to see Ayuso lose so much time on the hilly part, while that was where he beat Evenepoel in the Suisse TT last year. I was even more surprised to see Roglic lose time in sector 2 today. So who knows, opposition may not be that much better either.

Or Evenepoel is actually in decent form. Sure not like during Vuelta '22, but he doesn't need to be. He needs to be in that form in 4 weeks.

 

[jmdirt]

Good TT today RE!

 

[Nick2413]

Cycling is better when Remco is in good form. Really hope he can be at his best in the Tour whether that’s close to enough to be in the mix in the 3rd week or not.

 

[Lefebre]

With this performance Remco will win Le Tour with 10 minutes or more, finally the potential will be unsleashed

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Great comeback win that will boost Remco's confidence. The anaerobic threshold power is looking good already but more preparations to endure a long 3-week race are likely still needed (he's had only 4 weeks of training since the crash).

 

[durtyfat7]

It's clear that Soudal Quickstep don't have the team to challenge UAE or TJV, but I believe Landa can be the strongest "wingman" from all the big teams. When he's on form, he wasn't that far from Pogacar in the climbs. I wouldn't be surprised if he outclimb Remco in the Tour, but he will probably wait for him.

 

[Tim Cahill]

Landa isn't just for climbing, he is tranquilo, you need that in a wingman. Evenepoel looked much more relaxed in Algarve when he was around.

 

[Ulle97]

What do you think are the chances of Remco in the TTs in this year's Tour de France?

The first one is 25km with some rolling terrain. The second is 34km but much more climbing and descending.

 

[Sciatic]

What do you think are the chances of Remco in the TTs in this year's Tour de France?

The first one is 25km with some rolling terrain. The second is 34km but much more climbing and descending.

The 2d TT will also be about recovery capacity during what will be a fast GT, so more advantage to Pogacar and (if he’s on form) Vingegaard. So I’d guess he will have a much better chance in the 1st one,

 

[QueenStagiaire]

What do you think are the chances of Remco in the TTs in this year's Tour de France?

The first one is 25km with some rolling terrain. The second is 34km but much more climbing and descending.

He should be favorite to win them, I always thought this is what he‘s supposed to be great at, yet now that he‘s won a time trial everybody believes he should be great in the mountains as well. I believe slightly rolling time trials are what Remco is the best in the world at. The second TT should be won by the rider who has the most left by Stage 21.

 

[Extinction]

What do you think are the chances of Remco in the TTs in this year's Tour de France?

The first one is 25km with some rolling terrain. The second is 34km but much more climbing and descending.

Depends on his form, naturally. But a Remco at super-peak in the first TT could do something memorable. The second depends on his GC standing. If still in the mix, his form will be great, but the energy expended a lot; if not, the form will not be as great and the energy expense either not as much, because he saved for the TT, or equally great because he went chasing a mountain stage or two. Moral, who knows?

 

[ManicJack]

TdF stage hunter.

 

[Extinction]

TdF stage hunter.

This may very well be the case, but we have to see his climbing form, which, of course, will depend on his staying the GC track or hunting stages.

 

[proffate]

It doesn't look like RE can sprint right now, some combo of shoulder limitation and explosive effort limitation due to the training change.

3 Roglič sprint wins on top of the climbs and the lead is mostly gone. 33 seconds is nice to have, but is easily lost on any one of the very tough stages coming up, let alone all of them.

Would be great to see him hang on, but not sure it matters that much for the Tour. As long as he's there or thereabouts, he can be flying for the Tour. IMO.

if a GC dude wins 3 stages in a one week race then I'd say he deserves to win the GC

 

[ManicJack]

This may very well be the case, but we have to see his climbing form, which, of course, will depend on his staying the GC track or hunting stages.

If he doesn't win a stage, by dropping his opponents, this weekend, he has zero chance of podium in the TdF

 

[SHAD0W93]

if a GC dude wins 3 stages in a one week race then I'd say he deserves to win the GC

Especially when everyone should know by now you need to drop Roglic or he’s going to most likely beat you at the end.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Congrats sandbagger.

 

[CyclistAbi]

Some proof.

Stage 4 of Dauphiné 2024, Remco was like i did hurt my fingernail, not in good form, then he goes and demolishes the competition. Such a sand badger.