Re:
Googolplex said:
There are obviously many cases where a rider achieves a good level only quite old and there are of course many reasons why this can happen, but besides injuries or poor training, main reasons are sort of naturally slow development (ie. later peak age) and late starting/switching from other sport.
Evenepoel can of course get injured or train poorly, but he obviously hasn't developed slowly, and while he switched to cycling sort of late, he is already the best in his age group, so that may not be a good explanation either. So if Evenepoel stays sort of stagnant for next 5-10 years, I would say it's rather worrying for his GC winning chances.
There is always a possibility that he will never even podium in a GT classification, or even top10. He's just trying to keep the pressure off. In the meantime, he's also said that in 2 years, he'd want to try and ride a GT to see how far he can go. He'll be 21 then (he turns 19 next week).
He's always been one of the older boys in his age bracket, because he's from January. That probably is part of the explanation, but on the other hand, Bernal 's birthday is also in January. Evenepoel also ran a 1/2 marathon when he was 16, in an open age category, and finished 13th, while he had no preparation other than his football training and had never ran a marathon before (or since). He switched to cycling late, and while he may have developed early, physically, he's always been ahead of the curve. The difference with others his age is just immense. His ITT can be compared to the best of the U23, while riding restricted gears. And he never spares himself, he does the exact opposite of ride conservatively. There is definitely still room for improvement, at the pros he doesn't have to attack 90 km from the finish.
The fact that he's always been ahead of his peers (not just the last two years where you could argue he entered his "manhood" earlier than others), and the fact that the gap is so huge, makes me hope he truly is special and will also be able to make his mark as a future GT rider. But, on the other hand, who knows, he might just hit his ceiling the next couple of years, and find out he's just a good allrounder, but not GT material, maybe just a good domestique. It's always a possibility.
Anyway... 4 more days =)