Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[42x16ss]

He already said in his junior years that he could push 7w/kg on a climb (his weight at the time was 63kg), which is quite a bit more than 5.25w/kg.
His trainer said in an interview of august 2018, that he could push 420w for "long periods" (see pg13 of this thread).

If his AeT is 320W then an FTP ~ 420W sounds about right. Kid is a beast already

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Any known numbers of other riders?

FTP will be a good deal higher. Aerobic threshold is where your energy system starts to change its main fuel source from fats to sugars and is the limit of what you can sustain for extended periods of time while FTP is absolute maximum for a 1 hour effort. For a well trained athlete Aerobic threshold is about 75% of FTP.

FWIW 5.2W/Kg FTP is actually what you would expect for most U23s and Continental riders, but you wouldn't be winning unless you can sprint.

If his AeT is 320W then an FTP ~ 420W sounds about right. Kid is a beast already

If all the information checks out (and i am not a specialist, just been looking stuff up, so take it with a grain of salt)... 320 being his AeT, 420 being his AnT (in 2018), which is basically the "lactate treshold". Then it bodes well for Remco, compared to Froome's lab test (if they are to be believed). Froome has a lactate treshold of 430, but also weighs 7 or 8 kgs more. That basically means at his current weight, Remco outmatches Froome's Dauphiné 2015 w/kg already (6.9w/kg vs 6.5w/kg). With Remco's FTP being 400 (95% of AnT).

To consider, his small form factor also helps his aerodynamic shape on top of that, and by losing some more weight (which he can) he will come close to Froome's VO2Max (and further widen the w/kg gap).

If i messed up, i'm sorry, feel free to educate. Not my playground.

Chris Froome's lab results analysed: Just how good is the three-time Tour de France champion?

When you’re both a fan of professional racing and a keen cyclist yourself, it’s only natural to wonder how you stack up against the pros. While tools like Strava have made it easier than ever to see how we compare, it’s very rare that we get a detailed look at the physiology of one of … Continued

cyclingtips.com

Common But Confusing Training Terms - Joe Friel

Joe Friel defines common sport science terms, like aerobic threshold, lactate threshold, VO2max, and others.

joefrielsblog.com

Other interesting tidbit:

During the Vuelta, Tom Dumoulin pushed out 459.6 watts for 8 minutes 29 seconds, and pushed out around 420 watts over the 25 minute climb of the Ermita de Alba. He did that while weighing 70kgs (very similar to Froome) and after a day in the peloton. Contador’s FTP is rumoured to be exactly 420 watts, despite the Spaniard only weighing 62kgs – making us wonder how he manages to haemorrhage time to Froome when the road turns skyward. Then there’s the truly otherworldly figures of Bradley Wiggins – Wiggins famously described pumping out 456watts for 55 minutes in the 2011 world champs, and later stated that he was able to increase his power even further by reducing his cadence. Of course, these comparisons between pros can spark extensive debate and speculation in terms of aerodynamics, weight, tactics and equipment. Yet Froome doesn’t appear to be, as some have suggested, extraterrestrial in terms of power.

Chris Froome’s numbers – what do they really mean?

Chris Froome nearly broke the internet (well, at least the cycling related part of it) yesterday evening when a set

www.cyclist.co.uk

And according to a guy on twitter, based on the ITT over 42 minutes in California 2018, Bernal has an FTP of 367w and weighs one kg less than Remco (topping out at 6.1w/kg). Bernal supposedly does have a superior VO2Max of 91 or 92 iirc.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

If he improves, Dumoulin beating him in an ITT is far from a sure thing imho. He finished as far from Dennis in 2019 as Dumoulin the year before.

I'm also not sure concerning one day races. It's not like Movistar wanted to let him ride. They simply couldn't follow. Like Masnada, like Campenaerts, like Wellens... If he goes 30k from the finish, who is going with him? Team leaders will want to wait, but what if their doms can't bring him back. High profile riders can mark him, but might need to get out of their comfort zone.

I think he'll start the season better than last year. I can see him winning San Juan this year, and he surely can get a medal in the OG and/or WCC ITT.

The thing is, not unlikely van der Poel, it's dangerous to keep underestimating him. Last year i wasn't the only one saying it would be great if he could win a short ITT in a 3rd tier 1 week stagerace... And every time we said, he wouldn't be able to pull off a stunt like that again... That the others in the peloton would know him by now. First his stunt in Hammer Limburg, then Baloise Belgium Tour, then the BNC ITT merely 7s behind Lampaert, then Adriatica Ionica, then San Sebastian, then ECC ITT gold, then his stunt in Germany where Ineos needed motorpacing to bring him back, then the WCC ITT...

Every time us saying, what he did previously was impressive, but surely the next thing would be impossible. Until it wasn't.

His win in San Sebastian is being overlooked imho and it's up there with Mathieu's win in Amstel. As a physical feat, i rate it higher (coming back on the penultimate climb after a mechanical, attacking and choking the opposition to win solo).

San Sebastian was against tired TDF riders. Hard to rate that win higher than MVDP (or Fuglsang or Alaphilippe's) biggest wins, IF we ignore Evenepoel's age and lack of experience. Start list quality + overall freshness of riders matters.

LBL will show if he can bring it when everyone is on their A-game.

 

[Red Rick]

Already better lab tests than when Froome won Tour MTFs by like 2 minutes plus.

Now where can I see that in the stage race results?

 

[spalco]

Do yall think he will have an even better year?

I mean, the sky's the limit, the thread title sounds less and less like a joke as time goes on.

But with the Olympics clearly being the priority this year (understandable as it could be a once in a lifetime chance, and especially participating for a country that doesn't usually win lots of medals) I'm hoping for even more consistency and getting a bit higher on CQ (and equivalent) rankings.

A competitive showing in some of the stage races, and monuments plus an Olympic medal would already make it a very good second season imo.

In any case, I'm looking forward to seeing the peloton panic if he attacks LBL with 50km to go or something.

 

[Salvarani]

In any case, I'm looking forward to seeing the peloton panic if he attacks LBL with 50km to go or something.

That would be awesome

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

San Sebastian was against tired TDF riders. Hard to rate that win higher than MVDP (or Fuglsang or Alaphilippe's) biggest wins, IF we ignore Evenepoel's age and lack of experience. Start list quality + overall freshness of riders matters.

So... how come San Sebastian winners usually come from TDF then?
And Mathieu didn't have a similar advantage? Half the peloton were still cobbled riders who thought they might have a shot at AGR, circumstances willing, but are beat from the past month, while he was able to cherry pick his races. While Remco did a 25k attack after coming back (which people seem to forget happened), did 75% of the work (Skuijns was mostly dead weight after the first 5k) and stayed ahead. By his own admission, Mathieu said he got a lot of help from Lambrecht, Kwiatkoswki, De Marchi... in the chase, and the chaos definitely helped his cause as well. So i will repeat, from a physical perspective, Remco's feat was more impressive. And there was plenty of talent present that didn't ride the TDF (Pogacar, Hirschi, Sosa, Carthy...).

So i do not agree with your assessment. Not only do statistics say otherwise regarding TDF riders in CSS, which didn't all go for GC btw (Mollema, Konrad, Woods...), Remco had to come back on the climb, while Movistar was going full throttle. Started the climb deadlast, overtook half the peloton, by the time he got to the top, the peloton had split and he was leading the chasing group. Got back and immediately attacked. Taking into account his age, his naivety and the fact that this was his first classic, simply seals the deal.

Also interesting is that a lot of riders that are going to the Olympics this year, specifically mention riding the TDF as a plus.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

So... how come San Sebastian winners usually come from TDF then?

Supercompensation, but the TDF peloton was more tired than usual, IMO. Lots of people commented on it at the time. On this forum, as well, IIRC.

I don't think MVDP was the strongest rider in AGR, BTW. Fuglsang was, followed by Alaphilippe (probably - he was already past his best form at the time). I don't think Evenepoel's CSS win is at the level of those three guys' best performances.

Again, ignoring Evenepoel's age, etc. Just performance-wise. The Ardennes classics + the Tour are (almost always) the races with the highest performance level, even if some key names are missing. Lots of riders peak for those races. I thought you were strictly comparing one performance against the other, but it seems like you weren't.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I thought you were strictly comparing one performance against the other, but it seems like you weren't.

Not sure i understand what you are saying. I wasn't saying Evenepoel is better than (the top performances of) Alaphilippe, Fuglsang or van der Poel. I was saying his achievement in CSS was as impressive or more, than van der Poel's win in Amstel. I'm not comparing CSS to AGR (though i don't really consider Amstel to be of the caliber as the other spring classics), simply the "trick" the rider had to pull off from a physical standpoint. Coming back with a chasing group where the workload is shared, on two leaders, and winning the sprint. The amazing thing here is the sprint in itself, not the chase (since the two leaders were clearly not going full gas). The front two were clearly hesitating, unsure of what would happen. Like i said, the chaos in that final helped his cause. As such, i do value Evenepoel's achievement higher (even though winning CSS might be lower on one's palmares) considering he was on his own since pretty much the moment he had his mechanical before the penultimate climb, coming back and attacking Movistar which was going full gas.

 

[tobydawq]

That would be awesome

He did try that in Montréal but was reeled in pretty easily so his magic doesn't always work.

 

[Walter1234]

Already better lab tests than when Froome won Tour MTFs by like 2 minutes plus.

Now where can I see that in the stage race results?

Is the background of this question :
A: you don't believe he will be a GC rider next years and you make a ironic/sarcastic comment, not really asking a question.
B: you don't know where Evenepoel will ride next year.

Maybe you will see him as a GC contender in San Juan, maybe not.... we will see ;-).

 

[Salvarani]

He did try that in Montréal but was reeled in pretty easily so his magic doesn't always work.

Okay.

Of course not, attacks like that rarely works.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Already better lab tests than when Froome won Tour MTFs by like 2 minutes plus.

Now where can I see that in the stage race results?

I guess you know well enough that numbers are one thing, results another. It does give us an idea of the potential of a rider. I read an article yesterday about the wonder Oskar Svendsen with a VO2Max of 97, who never made it as a pro. Mental strength (coping with pain, with fatigue, showing motivation and will) is even more important (there was some talk about experiments how people could exceed their normal capacity with Pervitine).

Okay.

Of course not, attacks like that rarely works.

It almost worked in Germany. Untill the German motorbikes decided to help the peloton.

 

[Salvarani]

It almost worked in Germany. Untill the German motorbikes decided to help the peloton.

Awesome when it do works, like San-Sebastian.

I hope he continues to try it. It will make for some memorable wins in his career if he can pull it off every now and then.

 

[GVFTA]

I guess you know well enough that numbers are one thing, results another. It does give us an idea of the potential of a rider. I read an article yesterday about the wonder Oskar Svendsen with a VO2Max of 97, who never made it as a pro. Mental strength (coping with pain, with fatigue, showing motivation and will) is even more important (there was some talk about experiments how people could exceed their normal capacity with Pervitine)

An elite athlete's mind nearly always cracks before the body. I doubt Evenpoel will be given the leash he was last year and he is going to have to learn to cope with being ganged up on in races. The support of one of the strongest teams should help.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

An elite athlete's mind nearly always cracks before the body. I doubt Evenpoel will be given the leash he was last year and he is going to have to learn to cope with being ganged up on in races. The support of one of the strongest teams should help.

For sure. With Alaphilippe in their wheel, the competition might keep their legs still sooner rather than later. On the one hand, i don't feel like he was really given a leash in San Sebastian, Movistar and Astana really didn't want to let him ride, this was very obvious. On the other hand, the presence of Mas at the forefront of the chase was i think also crucial in demoralizing the competition on the final climb. I doubt they would have caught him anyway since he kept his pace, but it might have been a lot closer.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

I must be confused. It seems like people complain because the races were getting stale because no one was attacking and now we have a soon to be 20 year old who attacks at almost any opportunity and has had some great results while missing out on some other opportunities.

He broke away in the Arctic Race and nearly got away with Hirschi while causing severe damage to the peloton. He was involved in a 4 man break in the Belgian NC road race for well over 100km with little support from the other three riders.

He animates almost every race he is in. He could be stronger this year and not get results because his schedule is going to be tougher, but then again most thought he’d struggle in his first year and he had a year good enough that would make for an excellent career in terms of palmares.

At some point people may need to admit that he’s good, really good.

 

[Walter1234]

I can’t imagine he got his victories last season pushing 320 watts or 5.2 watts per kilo. Not sure that’s even domestique wattage.

as I wrote this is the aerobic power; it is the power he can handle 'forever' without fatigue; It roughly translates to be able to ride 40Km/h on a flat without fatigue. Not for 1 hour, but for hours....

 

[Walter1234]

... On the one hand, i don't feel like he was really given a leash in San Sebastian, Movistar and Astana really didn't want to let him ride, this was very obvious. On the other hand, the presence of Mas at the forefront of the chase was i think also crucial in demoralizing the competition on the final climb. I doubt they would have caught him anyway since he kept his pace, but it might have been a lot closer.

the Movistar guy leading the bunch in an interview later said that when Evenpoel attacked he could possible follow him; but behind him the group broke up so he slowed down which gave Skuyins and Evenepoel their initial gap.
I was looking for a Skuyins interview after the race about his experience, but couldn't find any.

 

[Bonimenier]

the Movistar guy leading the bunch in an interview later said that when Evenpoel attacked he could possible follow him; but behind him the group broke up so he slowed down which gave Skuyins and Evenepoel their initial gap.
I was looking for a Skuyins interview after the race about his experience, but couldn't find any.

It wasn't the initial attack that was impressive. The impressive part was later when the Movistar en Astana guys were riding full gas to catch them but instead they kept losing time.

 

[GuntherL]

I mean, the sky's the limit, the thread title sounds less and less like a joke as time goes on.

But with the Olympics clearly being the priority this year (understandable as it could be a once in a lifetime chance, and especially participating for a country that doesn't usually win lots of medals) I'm hoping for even more consistency and getting a bit higher on CQ (and equivalent) rankings.

A competitive showing in some of the stage races, and monuments plus an Olympic medal would already make it a very good second season imo.

In any case, I'm looking forward to seeing the peloton panic if he attacks LBL with 50km to go or something.

An attack in LBL is possible, but I expect him to do it in la Flèche Wallonne. The last 30 km (after the second passage on the Mur de Huy) is hilly and similar to the stage in Adriatica Ionica that he won.
The threat of him breaking away can change the predictable course of la FW that we've seen for decades. I look forward to the uncertainty in the peloton if he takes two lengths.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

the Movistar guy leading the bunch in an interview later said that when Evenpoel attacked he could possible follow him; but behind him the group broke up so he slowed down which gave Skuyins and Evenepoel their initial gap.
I was looking for a Skuyins interview after the race about his experience, but couldn't find any.

I read something like that too (can't remember where), and looking at the actual footage, that statement smells a lot like hot baloney or a bad translation. About 20 seconds after the actual attack just as Evenepoel overtakes Skuijns, they can almost spit on Skuijns's back. But supposedly they held back at that moment because there was a break in the group? Hehehe.

Here is a tweet by Amador: The translation may be wacky but it comes down to him "being humiliated by a phenomenon, and that it was his responsability not to let anyone leave, but at least, he was there to experience it in the flesh. Congrats Remco". Doesn't really tell the same story of "could have bridged but had to wait cuz some guys in the back were crying".

https://twitter.com/x/status/1157974656554606593

View: https://twitter.com/Andrey_Amador/status/1157974656554606593

Edit: FOUND IT! It wasn' t a Movistar guy. It was Fraile who said it in an interview with Basque television! He rides for Astana and they only started chasing when the gap was already 35s. I reported it in this topic myself, but can't remember where i got it from at that time. He said he was going full gas, and that the other guys sometimes had a hard time following and left a gap. At that time, Evenepoel and Skuijns were still riding further away.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Just came across an older interview with him, from just before his first climbing camp in les Vosges with the Belgian team. At that time he believed he was more of a classics rider, judging from tests he did, which is remarkable since he doesn't have a sprint or a strong punch. He considered himself too heavy to be a climber ("i'm not a lightweight"). It was at that point in les Vosges, that they noticed he was only a few seconds slower than Lambrecht who was then considered one of the best climbers in the U23, being 3 years older than Remco.

 

[GuntherL]

The stage profiles for the tour of San Juan are available. https://vueltaasanjuan.org/recorrido-2020

It looks a bit trickier than last year, especially the time trial which has an uphill finish this time. Remco and Alaphilippe are favourites for that stage. Ganna will probably be less suited because of his weight. I also look forward to Majka’s performance on Alto Colorado.
One important question remains. Will Remco aim for overall victory, long breakaways or both?

 

[Joelsim]

The stage profiles for the tour of San Juan are available. https://vueltaasanjuan.org/recorrido-2020

It looks a bit trickier than last year, especially the time trial which has an uphill finish this time. Remco and Alaphilippe are favourites for that stage. Ganna will probably be less suited because of his weight. I also look forward to Majka’s performance on Alto Colorado.
One important question remains. Will Remco aim for overall victory, long breakaways or both?

Remco attacked in the airport queue and is now nearing the top of Alto Colorado, the rest of the riders are still going through passport control.