Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Bonimenier]

It did say quite a bit IMO. That we shouldn't expect a top 5, for one.

Too bad your opinion is wrong. You can't know how a 4% gradient climb on 2500m altitude after chasing down 1m20 because of echelons against a weaker field in january will translate itself in the Giro against better opposition.

 

[Akuryo]

I don't care, I put 20 on him winning the whole thing. Wouldn't bet my life savings on this Giro though. But this way I have another incentive to hope he does well

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It did say quite a bit IMO. That we shouldn't expect a top 5, for one.

Not that i'm expecting him to finish in the top 5, but... well, he climbed a whole of a lot better than Alaphilippe in last year's San Juan and Julian finished just outside the podium of the TDF. So, this is not a benchmark one way or the other.
Like Bonimenier said, he had to close down a 1m20s gap with two guys helping (Sevilla & Paredes) against Bohra, UAE & Movistar, while G Martin and McNulty were doing didley squat in the front group. And he was still better than Martin and McNulty on the climb.

Edit: That said, this is the top 10 GC contenders for the Giro according to PCS:

1	Fuglsang Jakob	Astana Pro Team	844	6
2	Ulissi Diego	UAE-Team Emirates	660	12
3	Izagirre Ion	Astana Pro Team	648	13
4	Carapaz Richard	Team INEOS	635	15
5	Majka Rafał	BORA - hansgrohe	625	16
6	Teunissen Mike	Team Jumbo-Visma	470	26
7	Nibali Vincenzo	Trek - Segafredo	464	28
8	Evenepoel Remco	Deceuninck - Quick Step	448	29
9	Bennett George	Team Jumbo-Visma	416	32
10	Bardet Romain	AG2R La Mondiale	415	34

I have faith he can finish ahead of Teunissen though.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Too bad your opinion is wrong. You can't know how a 4% gradient climb on 2500m altitude after chasing down 1m20 because of echelons against a weaker field in january will translate itself in the Giro against better opposition.

The climb had like 8% ramps. Cooperation in the front group wasn't stellar before Evenepoel and Sevilla joined.

He didn't close down the gap all by himself either. Sevilla and more importantly Paredes went balls out.

Sevilla wasn't dropped for good, either. I don't buy the the climb was too easy excuse as plenty of other riders didn't manage to hang on. There was just not that much of a difference between Evenepoel and Sevilla on the climb.

I can understand that some people don't want to draw any conclusions from that, but to me there is enough to go on to say that he likely won't top-5 in this year's Giro. It's a pretty tame conclusion I would have thought.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Not that i'm expecting him to finish in the top 5, but... well, he climbed a whole of a lot better than Alaphilippe in last year's San Juan and Julian finished just outside the podium of the TDF. So, this is not a benchmark one way or the other.
Like Bonimenier said, he had to close down a 1m20s gap with two guys helping (Sevilla & Paredes) against Bohra, UAE & Movistar, while G Martin and McNulty were doing didley squat in the front group. And he was still better than Martin and McNulty on the climb.

I'm going by interviews where it seemed clear to me that Evenepoel was on some pretty good form going in. His stellar ITT seemed to confirm that (it was much more impressive than Alaphilippe's 2019 San Juan TT win for sure)_. In fact I predicted a stage win on Alto Colorado (which may have been possible), but also said that I didn't know if he was going destroy the field, or would "only" manage to squeeze out a stage win. I think we have enough to go on to rule out the former.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's a pretty tame conclusion I would have thought.

It's certainly a tame prediction, but not a tame conclusion. I don't think his SJ would ever prove him being able to do Giro top 5 or the other way around. I agree he'll likely not finish in the top 5, but that has nothing to do with how he faired in San Juan.

In fact I predicted a stage win on Alto Colorado (which may have been possible), but also said that I didn't know if he was going destroy the field, or would "only" manage to squeeze out a stage win. I think we have enough to go on to rule out the former.

I don't agree. He was taking turns with Serry long before Sevilla & Paredes showed up. At that time it was him + Serry against Movistar, UAE, Bohra. When Sevilla moved to the front of the group with Paredes, a lot of matches were burnt in the front group and the doms were spent when the road went up. Only then did Sevilla and Paredes move to the front (Sevilla had previously almost been dropped by Serry and Evenepoel's work). Basically, the gap went down once in the front group the doms had done their work, and in Evenepoel's group Sevilla and Paredes started helping out. Had he not wasted that much energy, and had all the GC guys started the climb together, he might very well have ridden away a minute from Martin, McNulty and others.

Basically it would have been a completely different race.

 

[spalco]

I can understand that some people don't want to draw any conclusions from that, but to me there is enough to go on to say that he likely won't top-5 in this year's Giro. It's a pretty tame conclusion I would have thought.

It's a reasonable opinion in any case undoubtedly, I think where the objection comes from is just drawing that conclusion from this race.

If he had destroyed his opposition it would have increased his hype, but still not objectively increased his chances to win the Giro. That race is unlikely to be won or lost on stages like this (if they even exist) and anyway, Evenepoel was the strongest rider of the day here too, so a bit strange to infer from that that he's not strong.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Had he not wasted that much energy, and had all the GC guys started the climb together, he might very well have ridden away a minute from Martin, McNulty [...]

No argument there. I don't think Martin and McNulty were all that great in this race. Sevilla would have likely finished second if not for those echelons. He's the perfect benchmark, as he was in the same echelon as Evenepoel (and had diffciculty following the pace on the flat)

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

It's a reasonable opinion in any case undoubtedly, I think where the objection comes from is just drawing that conclusion from this race.

If he had destroyed his opposition it would have increased his hype, but still not objectively increased his chances to win the Giro. That race is unlikely to be won or lost on stages like this (if they even exist) and anyway, Evenepoel was the strongest rider of the day here too, so a bit strange to infer from that that he's not strong.

Not what I said at all. He was clearly the strongest rider in both the TT and on that day.

But he absolutely dominated the TT and yet didn't "own" Sevilla on Alto Colorado, even though both were in the same echelon and Sevilla was in difficulties on the flat.

Before the climb I was "sure" (lol) Sevilla would be dealt with on the climb. And yet he wasn't.

 

[Joelsim]

To be fair, the betting odds come down to protect the bookies from losing money. There’ll have been plenty of punters sticking a few quid on him at 17/1, which could leave the bookies up sh*t creek if he managed it. You only have to look at England football odds in major championships to realise that it isn’t an accurate reflection of how likely it is to happen.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Daniel Mangeas thinks he can do top 10 in the Giro, but not the podium (that would be difficult).

Eurosport video in French: https://video.eurosport.fr/cyclisme...oel-c-est-un-phenomene_vid1291787/video.shtml

 

[Rik Van Looy]

They don't do that because they think he will be that good, they do that because there are enough idiots to take that bet and so they can milk them for more money when Evenepoel doesn't win the Giro. They simply look at how popular the bet is and how much they can get away with. Those bets are in turn not taken by experts on all things Remco , but by people who have likely not followed Remco as close as people in this topic. The fact that he won San Juan and went from 17 to 1 all the way down to 7 to 1, is proof of that. As if winning San Juan is a benchmark for the Giro.

I think you are underestimating the knowled

Daniel Mangeas thinks he can do top 10 in the Giro, but not the podium (that would be difficult).

Eurosport video in French: https://video.eurosport.fr/cyclisme...oel-c-est-un-phenomene_vid1291787/video.shtml

He also wishes Romain Bardet to win the Giro, so he is not exactly neutral in what he says.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Next up: Algarve. 2 MTFs (kinda) as per usual.

Lopez, Thomas, Mollema will probably have some form.

Evenepoel will almost certainly drop Nibali (again). This time like a stone.

I'm banking on a 5th place or thereabouts... depending on the final start list. Could be slightly better or worse. ((I picked Evenepoel for my CQ ranking team mainly because I expected the most additional points (versus 2019) in short and one-week stage race GC results, and hopefully leader's jersey points at the Giro. ...and in TTs obviously))

 

[Red Rick]

Doesn't Algarve have an ITT?

 

[Akuryo]

Doesn't Algarve have an ITT?

Yes, 20 km, mostly flat.

 

[Panda Claws]

He also wishes Romain Bardet to win the Giro, so he is not exactly neutral in what he says.

How is wanting a certain rider to win a race relevant when it comes to asserting another riders' chances? Are you suggesting that other analysts do not have any preference about who wins?

 

[SafeBet]

Next up: Algarve. 2 MTFs (kinda) as per usual.

Lopez, Thomas, Mollema will probably have some form.

Evenepoel will almost certainly drop Nibali (again). This time like a stone.

I'm banking on a 5th place or thereabouts... depending on the final start list. Could be slightly better or worse. ((I picked Evenepoel for my CQ ranking team mainly because I expected the most additional points (versus 2019) in short and one-week stage race GC results, and hopefully leader's jersey points at the Giro. ...and in TTs obviously))

Barring crashes, I'd be surprised if he doesn't win the overall.

 

[Red Rick]

Yes, 20 km, mostly flat.

Then he's the clear favorite for the win IMO. If it's Alto de Foia first it's not that hard and if Evenepoel's climbing legs aren't that good yet, Malhao doesn't have big gaps anyway.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Barring crashes, I'd be surprised if he doesn't win the overall.

The field seems much better than last year when Pogacar won it. The main gc riders then were Mas, Oomen, Poels.
This year it's Lopez, Costa, Mollema, Nibali (ok, ok), Thomas...

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

Doesn't Algarve have an ITT?

LOL, I don't know how I missed that.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think you are underestimating the knowled

Yeah... I doubt it.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

The field seems much better than last year when Pogacar won it. The main gc riders then were Mas, Oomen, Poels.
This year it's Lopez, Costa, Mollema, Nibali (ok, ok), Thomas...

former winner Kwiatkowski, too.

Yeah, it's a tad bit premature to tab Evenepoel as the man to beat.

 

[Bonimenier]

former winner Kwiatkowski, too.

Yeah, it's a tad bit premature to tab Evenepoel as the man to beat.

Would think Thomas is the favourite considering the TT. Best TTer from the GC guys apart from maybe Remco, but he should be better uphill.

 

[SafeBet]

The field seems much better than last year when Pogacar won it. The main gc riders then were Mas, Oomen, Poels.
This year it's Lopez, Costa, Mollema, Nibali (ok, ok), Thomas...

Thomas and Nibali are unlikely to be in top shape. Lopez might lose 2 minutes to Remco in the TT. And I don't think Rui Costa and Mollema can drop Remco on those climbs.

I'd say the biggest challenge is Kwiatkowski (if in top shape).

 

[red_flanders]

The beauty here is that he's making some early season races which I (and presumably many others) wouldn't care about, very interesting races.

Good for cycling.