Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

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I see that the bookies are not taking risk any risk whatsoever. The odds Remco winning the Tour of San Juan have been slashed from 1,7 to 1,03, ie you win almost nothing in case Remco wins this Tour.

He is still fourth favorite to win the Giro, but he is closing in on the top 3. His odds declined from 15/17 to 11. I wonder how much these odds will decline after tonight.

My Italians friends are now completely convinced that he will win the Giro this year even without seeing any signs of him being a excellent climber. A lot of money will be placed on him winning the Giro. I won't be surprised if he is favorite starting the Giro.

Bookies raise/lower the odds depending on public perception as well. It is no way a purely objective endeavour.

If people, caught in the Remco hypetrain, are willing to bet their savings at 11/1 then no sane booking website will place the odds at 17/1.
 
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Offcourse he's going for the win, but whatever the result here is going to be, it's no guarantuee for good results in the Giro against real competition. People starting to call him favorite are just delusional.
I am not claiming that he really will win the Giro. My Italia
Bookies raise/lower the odds depending on public perception as well. It is no way a purely objective endeavour.

If people, caught in the Remco hypetrain, are willing to bet their savings at 11/1 then no sane booking website will place the odds at 17/1.

I know. The more people bet on him, the more his odds decline. Favorite for the bookies is not exactly the same as favorite in the real world, but it does give an indication.
 
He is probably overhyped right now but one can't deny that the signs are there. He constantly speaks of being in much better shape in every possible way. His form seems great and he is an improved rider from last year.

Let's look at his TT improvement versus a very strong young TTer, Filippo Ganna.

2019 Romandie ITT: lost 2,4 s/km (38 seconds over 17 km)

2019 Euro Champs ITT: gained 1 s/km (23 seconds over 22 km).

2019 World Champs ITT: gained 0,8 s/km (46 seconds over 55 km)

2020 San Juan ITT: gained 2,1 s/km (32 seconds over 15 km)

And Ganna is also still improving himself most likely.
This speaks volumes imho.

I think Remco will obliterate the opposition today.

The Giro is a big unknown but Evenepoel winning it is not out of the question.

I'm also fairly sure that for the Olympic and Worlds TT he and Dennis will be the biggest favourites.
He wasn't at his best in Romandie. He suffered two crashes IIRC. Not a great data point. San Juan isn't either when comparing Evenepoel and Ganna , as it's an unimportant early early early season race, but at least it tells us that no one in this race is close to Evenepoel's current level / form. In a flat ITT with a very short climb, at least.

I have no idea if he will destroy or obliterate the opposition today. I don't use those terms lightly.

Sure he's much lighter than 12 months ago and this time there's no Anacona on mutant form. So yeah, he should get the stage win, but by how much? No idea. Remember, he had already lost a bunch of weight at Adriatica Ionica last year and wasn't dominant uphill.

So no idea what to expect, really. He could go full Merckx on us or squeeze out a stage win, or anywhere in between.
 
About the Remco “hype”. Given what he’s accomplished, it would be fairly weird as a cycling fan not to be excited about what he might be able to do moving forward. He’s already done things we haven’t seen in a rider this age in decades or ever. If he follows along the current trajectory, the question isn’t if he’ll win GTs and monuments but when. The power he’s displaying at his size is simply astonishing. To not consider that he could win the Giro would actually be fairly irrational. Sure there are significant questions of experience and endurance. But the numbers are clear and obvious. He’s certainly a top contender, but all top contenders are more likely to lose than win. It’s bike racing.

If one isn’t hyped about a talent like this, from a cycling region like the one he comes from, doing the things he’s done, I don’t know what would get you hyped.
 

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CYCLING | INTERVIEW
"I know that I have become a world star"
Remco Evenepoel, with just 20 years old, talks to AS about how he has fame and the
San Juan (Argentina) 01/31/2020 01:24


The Tour of San Juan is its debut in 2020 and, for the moment, it already has the victory of the chrono.

It is a good starting point this year. In the time trial there was a lot of wind and I tried to be as aerodynamic as possible, which is one of my strengths. Yes I noticed that I am still not in top form, but I do not think anyone is at this point. Now we will try to defend this leadership because it is important for the team.

How does it affect you that Alaphilippe arrived as a leader and that after his retirement he has fallen the responsibility on you?

Alaphilippe got sick, it is something that can happen to all of us. He is a great runner who goes well in all fields and a great companion that I learn every day, who never acts as a star, but as a normal person. And that, with the performance he has each season, he could be as he pleased.

Are you getting used to the pressure? The expectations about you where you participate are enormous.

I try to ignore the external pressure and I don't think I press myself either. I simply set some goals and try to meet them. If I achieve it, I am on the right track and, if not, something is wrong and we have to solve it.

And from the media point of view? How does it take to be the center of attention?


I have assumed it as normal. It is wrong that I say so and it is something that I have not chosen, but I know that I have become a world star. I try to make it part of my job and not put additional stress on me. There are moments of rest in which, in my case, I have to give interviews, attend the media ... That's when I have to say 'OK, I will be nice and comply with them'. I know that journalists only do their job as I do mine. (In San Juan, his first race of the year, Evenepoel has raised a lot of expectation. He attended the displaced media, including AS, relaxed and smiling. In the interviews he handles perfectly in Flemish, English and French).

And all those expectations, the commitments ... Don't you think it could be something harmful for someone so young?

Well, as I say, I try to make that pressure not turn into something negative, but rather something healthy and motivational. My job is to be prepared, train and get to appointments in the best possible way. That must be my main concern.

This Friday you will have an exam on the ascent to Alto del Colorado. Are you prepared to perform also on the mountain?


My work on the climbs is being good and I hope it is reflected.

A question about you is how you will perform in a three-week race and have already announced that you will be in the Giro. Are you ready for such an appointment?


Not right now, the season has just begun, but in a few months I will be.
 
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If this lad is to win a GT, he will either have to move to a different team or DQS need to invest in some proper doms for him to get him round 3 weeks against the proper GT teams.. Ala did great in the tour last year but collapsed at the end. Has this lad done anything over a weeks racing yet? Against decent opposition? He's good, yes, but give him a bit of time before making him one of the favourites for overall win. If he comes away with a stage win or 3 then it will be a great buzz for him. I'll wait until he's proven over the longer distances against decent opposition before calling him superman.
 
He wasn't at his best in Romandie. He suffered two crashes IIRC. Not a great data point. San Juan isn't either when comparing Evenepoel and Ganna , as it's an unimportant early early early season race, but at least it tells us that no one in this race is close to Evenepoel's current level / form. In a flat ITT with a very short climb, at least.

I have no idea if he will destroy or obliterate the opposition today. I don't use those terms lightly.

Sure he's much lighter than 12 months ago and this time there's no Anacona on mutant form. So yeah, he should get the stage win, but by how much? No idea. Remember, he had already lost a bunch of weight at Adriatica Ionica last year and wasn't dominant uphill.

So no idea what to expect, really. He could go full Merckx on us or squeeze out a stage win, or anywhere in between.

I'm aware that these are not the greatest data points but these are what we have. It shows the progress nevertheless. Romandie is especially not good but what can we do. He almost certainly wouldn't have won that even in full health. This San Juan is also not perfect as riders aren't peaked yet but still it says something. We will be closer to the truth after today's stage. I think hype or not a lot of people underestimes him.
 
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If this lad is to win a GT, he will either have to move to a different team or DQS need to invest in some proper doms for him to get him round 3 weeks against the proper GT teams.. Ala did great in the tour last year but collapsed at the end. Has this lad done anything over a weeks racing yet? Against decent opposition? He's good, yes, but give him a bit of time before making him one of the favourites for overall win. If he comes away with a stage win or 3 then it will be a great buzz for him. I'll wait until he's proven over the longer distances against decent opposition before calling him superman.

My 2 cents, he's not gonna take GT win, but stage wins are possible in the first half of the race, then we probably see difference against more matured athletes. Team I think is looking what his GT potential is atm and lets him see it for himself too. Maybe pull him kindly off the race when too much overreaching can be seen.

He's clearly normal young supertalent that sets bar very high himself atm, there's no need to whip but hold back him really to focus on right things.

And I think other teams see his maiden year is done and dusted, it's business as usual from now on. No need to be overly polite anymore.
 
Maybe pull him kindly off the race when too much overreaching can be seen.

Why do people continue with nonsense like this? A rider who is at such a high level as him does not have a very hard time just following suit on most stages. Why on earth would riding in terrain in which he excels for three weeks be more taxing for him than for sprinters and other heavy guys for whom Grand Tours are notorious sufferfests.

Also, we literally just saw a 20-year-old podium a Grand Tour and win three stages.
 
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Related to the result today:
  • welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...
  • the weakness of his team. Thinking at the Giro: his team will need to support him a lot better then today; who can support him in the mountains of his team?
 
Related to the result today:
  • welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...
  • the weakness of his team. Thinking at the Giro: his team will need to support him a lot better then today; who can support him in the mountains of his team?
Today he was the big favorite in GC. In the Giro he will never be the favorite in GC (i assume). The team won't have to do all the work in the Giro, he can just follow other GC guys or other teams. I agree today the team was weak, but with Alaphilippe gone, there were only Serry and Stybar to do some real work left. In the Giro, he might get some support from Knox, if he actually is in a position to expect support, and if Knox (who wants to ride for his own GC) can be bothered to ride for him.
 
Based on the ITT result he should have ridden circles around the opposition today even having to chase.

He looks like having a very good position on the road bike, but I can not believe that he is so much more aerodynamic than the rest.
 
Related to the result today:
  • welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...

With his TT he will certainly win a large number of races unless his climbing development stalls very badly. There are five million one week stage races or shorter stage races per season with an ITT. Even if something disastrous goes wrong and he never becomes a guy with three week endurance, he would still end up with lots of them.
 
Compared to other ITT'ers, he's much more aerodynamic because he's much smaller (1m71). Guys like Ganna, Bjerg, van Aert, Dumoulin... are 20cm taller.
He's not necesarilly much more aerodynamic than other small riders, but those guys aren't good ITT'ers.

Sevilla is reasonably close in build and he was an okay TT rider way back in the day. And he probably lost over 4.5 s/km on the non-climb part of the ITT.

With such power advantage (I do not believe that it's only aerodynamics) it's a mystery to me why Evenepoel isn't a better climber relatively.
 
Sevilla is reasonably close in build and he was an okay TT rider way back in the day. And he probably lost over 4.5 s/km on the non-climb part of the ITT.

With such power advantage (I do not believe that it's only aerodynamics) it's a mystery to me why Evenepoel isn't a better climber relatively.
Not sure what you mean. He had been working for 15km himself (with a few others), while McNulty, Martin etc, were doing no work at all in the first group, and still Evenepoel was one of the strongest on the steepest part of the climb.

But it's not just aero, obviously, no. His wattages have been posted in this topic, and he weighs over 4kg less than January last year (below 60kg now according to last years info minus 4).