Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Bonimenier]

It's already clear that Remco improved a lot the last couple of months. I expect him to win the "mountain" stage on Friday as well. He was already world class in time trials last year. (I wonder how many people will be able to beat him in time trials.) Fausto Coppi was the youngest Giro winner ever, but my Italian friends tell me that they are afraid that Remco will break that record this year. He is already fourth favorite to win the Giro this year. I am bit surprised that "many" people assumed that he would no longer improve, but that is obviously not the case. I think 7,3/7,4 watt per kg is possible for him in a couple of years. In that case Remco will win loads of GT's. People that saw Eddy Merckx winning the 1964 amateurs world championship in Sallanches were convinced that they would never see such an enormous talent again until they saw Remco winning the junior world championship. They were amazed that this was still possible. I think the record of 11 GT's is in danger of being beaten by Remco.

Let's try to start with 1 before talking about him breaking the record of 11

 

[spalco]

Let's try to start with 1 before talking about him breaking the record of 11

I agree, but i also understand the feeling. I honestly think Remco is the biggest talent i've ever seen in any sport.

Probably similar to people who followed Messi or LeBron James come up through the ranks.

 

[dastott]

Let's see how he does in the GC of 1 week European stage races against decent climbing opposition before hyping him too much. Beating Ganna by so much in a TT is impressive but it's early season.

 

[Joelsim]

It's unlikely that he'll win the Giro having just turned 20, but with him you never know. He's shown he has a massive engine, the unknowns currently is can he stick with the top climbers over a 15km climb, and how good is his recovery.

 

[scapewalker]

I agree, but i also understand the feeling. I honestly think Remco is the biggest talent i've ever seen in any sport.

Probably similar to people who followed Messi or LeBron James come up through the ranks.

My vote goes to Michael Phelps but when it comes to cycling it's Remco all the way.

 

[Bolder]

I agree, but i also understand the feeling. I honestly think Remco is the biggest talent i've ever seen in any sport.

Probably similar to people who followed Messi or LeBron James come up through the ranks.

I don't want to dampen your enthusiasm too much, but every sport has had otherworldly talents at any given time. I'm no golf fan but Tiger Woods around 2000-2007 was toying with the field; Kelly Slater won 11 surfing world championships; Usain Bolt won whenever he wanted to. Messi, Jordan, LeBron -- unstoppable. Simone Biles in gymnastics, Marcel Hirscher and Mikaela Shiffrin in skiing, etc.

Cycling is a little different because there are so many other factors, but certainly there have been times when Sagan, Cancellara, Contador and Froome have been able to impose their will on the field. Could add Cavendish and even he-who-can't-be-named-outside-of-the-clinic...and do you not think that Mathieu van der Poel is Remco's equal, if not his better?

Having said that, I'm excited to see how Remco does in a big-boy race. San Sebastien was a preview of what he can potentially do.

 

[RunningRouleur]

I would wager that Remco already has the best power to weight ratio in the world and the second best watts per CDA. As prior posters have noted, a Grand Tour demands incredible recovery and endurance abilities (I would add bike handling and tactics as well). We will see if the 20 year old can hang on in the third week. But if his endurance and ability to repeat threshold efforts is anywhere near his incredible 20-60 minute numbers, and he doesn’t crash, he will win the Giro d’Italia this year.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Cycling is a little different because there are so many other factors, but certainly there have been times when Sagan, Cancellara, Contador and Froome have been able to impose their will on the field. Could add Cavendish and even he-who-can't-be-named-outside-of-the-clinic...and do you not think that Mathieu van der Poel is Remco's equal, if not his better?

I'm sorry but... no? Not even close imho. None of these guys came out of the junior ranks, guns blazing, and winning major races against pro pelotons in cyclings major division (not cyclocross or MTB) like San Sebastian. Not to mention what he did in the world's champ ITT at 19. I had just deleted a post i was writing about how none of those guys compare, but decided to delete it, prior to reading your post. What he's shown in his first 13 months as a pro at 19-20 years of age far exceeds that level. He isn't simply cowering and saving energy in order to win bunch sprints. He's bullying and dominating grown, experienced world class riders in a humiliating fashion. Simply outpowering them.

 

[spalco]

I don't want to dampen your enthusiasm too much, but every sport has had otherworldly talents at any given time. I'm no golf fan but Tiger Woods around 2000-2007 was toying with the field; Kelly Slater won 11 surfing world championships; Usain Bolt won whenever he wanted to. Messi, Jordan, LeBron -- unstoppable. Simone Biles in gymnastics, Marcel Hirscher and Mikaela Shiffrin in skiing, etc.

Yeah, sure, and it's difficult to compare. But we shall see.

Cycling is a little different because there are so many other factors, but certainly there have been times when Sagan, Cancellara, Contador and Froome have been able to impose their will on the field. Could add Cavendish and even he-who-can't-be-named-outside-of-the-clinic...and do you not think that Mathieu van der Poel is Remco's equal, if not his better?

Having said that, I'm excited to see how Remco does in a big-boy race. San Sebastien was a preview of what he can potentially do.

Van der Poel is better right now, sure, but he's also 5 years older; I'm not saying Evenpoel is the best at the moment, but he could be. VdP is also never going to win a GT.
Sagan was a prodigy clearly already at 20 too, The others showed talent too (excepting Froome), but not as early as Remco.

 

[RunningRouleur]

Do people realize how absurd it is that a 20 year old is obliterating the pursuit world record older, a man who weighs SEVENTEEN kilos more, on the flat in a TT?

 

[memyselfandI]

It doesn't matter much. To be in level with, say Sagan, he needs to grab 3 RWC's first, means three years. And he needs to grab about 105 pro wins to be in level with Peto, so if he wins every week throughout the season, two and half years. If once a month, about ten yrs….so, looks like he has a task to do after all, no need to talk about Merckx just yet.

 

[Joelsim]

Do people realize how absurd it is that a 20 year old is obliterating the pursuit world record older, a man who weighs SEVENTEEN kilos more, on the flat in a TT?

Depends on what you mean by absurd.

Anyway who is this Remco Evenepoel character?

He seems to have flown under the radar as far as the media are concerned.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

 

[red_flanders]

I don't want to dampen your enthusiasm too much, but every sport has had otherworldly talents at any given time. I'm no golf fan but Tiger Woods around 2000-2007 was toying with the field; Kelly Slater won 11 surfing world championships; Usain Bolt won whenever he wanted to. Messi, Jordan, LeBron -- unstoppable. Simone Biles in gymnastics, Marcel Hirscher and Mikaela Shiffrin in skiing, etc.

Great points.

Cycling is a little different because there are so many other factors, but certainly there have been times when Sagan, Cancellara, Contador and Froome have been able to impose their will on the field. Could add Cavendish and even he-who-can't-be-named-outside-of-the-clinic...and do you not think that Mathieu van der Poel is Remco's equal, if not his better?

At first I chuckled to see Froome's name compared to Evenepoel, and then I got irritated. He's literally the polar opposite example, someone who exhibited almost no talent (relative to WT riders) at a young age and then somehow blossomed into the GT rider of the generation. However far he gets in his career, Evenepoel is clearly a real talent in the mold of the champions of the 80s and before. A talent that shows early and is obvious and unequivocal. His name and Froome's shouldn't appear in the same sentence except to point out the staggering difference in their career arcs.

MVDP is absolutely awesome and a staggering talent. I can't wait to see what else he can do on the road, he already gave us the most exciting classics finish in recent memory last year at Amstel. He's amazing.

Having said that, I'm excited to see how Remco does in a big-boy race. San Sebastien was a preview of what he can potentially do.

I think it's going to be exciting!

 

[RunningRouleur]

Power estimate on a road bike?

It doesn't matter much. To be in level with, say Sagan, he needs to grab 3 RWC's first, means three years. And he needs to grab about 105 pro wins to be in level with Peto, so if he wins every week throughout the season, two and half years. If once a month, about ten yrs….so, looks like he has a task to do after all, no need to talk about Merckx just yet.

Come on now, Sagan is a sprinter who mostly sits in the wheels. If Remco wins half of what Sagan has, he will have to be considered better, because his victories will be GC/TT/MTF/long De Gendt style breakaways. Froome, for example, has won only 45 races.

 

[tobydawq]

Is Sagan a sprinter who sits in the wheels?

I must have been dreaming the days I thought he won Flanders and Roubaix...

 

[hayneplane]

Is Sagan a sprinter who sits in the wheels?

I must have been dreaming the days I thought he won Flanders and Roubaix...

Of course he is far far more than merely a bunch gallop sprinter but his fast finish is a big reason why he has so many wins.

As an example Valverde and Nibali arguably have very similar talent levels and overall weight of palmares but Valverde has far more wins due to his finishing kick that means he is usually the fastest in any semi selective race in which he arrives with the lead group.

For Remco to top 100 wins as a rider focussed most on being a Grand Tour GC contender would be exceptional in this age of specialisation.

 

[Bonimenier]

Of course he is far far more than merely a bunch gallop sprinter but his fast finish is a big reason why he has so many wins.

As an example Valverde and Nibali arguably have very similar talent levels and overall weight of palmares but Valverde has far more wins due to his finishing kick that means he is usually the fastest in any semi selective race in which he arrives with the lead group.

For Remco to top 100 wins as a rider focussed most on being a Grand Tour GC contender would be exceptional in this age of specialisation.

Being such a good TT'er and winning a couple of TTs each year also helps a riders total win count. Obviously not as much as being a topsprinter, but I wouldn't be surprised if he averages 4-5 TT-wins per year.

 

[hayneplane]

Being such a good TT'er and winning a couple of TTs each year also helps a riders total win count. Obviously not as much as being a topsprinter, but I wouldn't be surprised if he averages 4-5 TT-wins per year.

I think that is a major overestimate on the ITT rate. With the amount of them in stage races decreasing all the time he would have to win over 50% of the time trials he competes in to average 5 TT wins a year.
He would have to become Miguel Indurain 2.0 against the clock to get even close to that kind of tally.

 

[Bonimenier]

I think that is a major overestimate on the ITT rate. With the amount of them in stage races decreasing all the time he would have to win over 50% of the time trials he competes in to average 5 TT wins a year.
He would have to become Miguel Indurain 2.0 against the clock to get even close to that kind of tally.

If you see how dominant he already is in TT's, I wouldn't be surprised if he does win over 50% of the TT's he competes in.

 

[Joelsim]

Of course he is far far more than merely a bunch gallop sprinter but his fast finish is a big reason why he has so many wins.

As an example Valverde and Nibali arguably have very similar talent levels and overall weight of palmares but Valverde has far more wins due to his finishing kick that means he is usually the fastest in any semi selective race in which he arrives with the lead group.

For Remco to top 100 wins as a rider focussed most on being a Grand Tour GC contender would be exceptional in this age of specialisation.

Also helped by the fact Valverde is 462 years old.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Is Sagan a sprinter who sits in the wheels?

I must have been dreaming the days I thought he won Flanders and Roubaix...

Cavendish was thrown into the mix as well, fyi. How often did you see him go in the attack?

Edit: Sorry, seems like you were responding to RR's post, not mine.

For Remco to top 100 wins as a rider focussed most on being a Grand Tour GC contender would be exceptional in this age of specialisation.

You are aware he already has 6 wins, right? At the end of the week, that might very well be 7 or even 8.

 

[Bolder]

I'm sorry but... no? Not even close imho. None of these guys came out of the junior ranks, guns blazing, and winning major races against pro pelotons in cyclings major division (not cyclocross or MTB) like San Sebastian. Not to mention what he did in the world's champ ITT at 19. I had just deleted a post i was writing about how none of those guys compare, but decided to delete it, prior to reading your post. What he's shown in his first 13 months as a pro at 19-20 years of age far exceeds that level. He isn't simply cowering and saving energy in order to win bunch sprints. He's bullying and dominating grown, experienced world class riders in a humiliating fashion. Simply outpowering them.

The OP said he'd never seen a talent like his in any sport.

I can't argue that SS and world's ITT weren't stunning. I'm just pointing out that there have been some damn good cyclists in the last 10 years. Just because their talent didn't manifest itself in wins as young as it has for Remco doesn't mean they had less of it.

I know the word "talent" is subjective but MVDP is the most talented cyclist I've seen.

 

[Rik Van Looy]

I would wager that Remco already has the best power to weight ratio in the world and the second best watts per CDA. As prior posters have noted, a Grand Tour demands incredible recovery and endurance abilities (I would add bike handling and tactics as well). We will see if the 20 year old can hang on in the third week. But if his endurance and ability to repeat threshold efforts is anywhere near his incredible 20-60 minute numbers, and he doesn’t crash, he will win the Giro d’Italia this year.

I think you are right. Remco must have had an excellent winter. His test results are much better than last year. He was by far the best of his team. I have the impression that people still think he is the same Remco as last year. In reality his engine is already big enough to make it difficult for everybody. A couple additional years will make him invincible in the GT's. He will take minutes in the time trials (2, 3, 4 seconds per minute = 2, 3, 4 minutes in a long time trial) and in the mountains his engine will ensure that they will never be able to take minutes. I have the impression that Bernal and Pogacar are in for a shock once they meet the improved Remco. There is indeed a possibility that he will win the Giro this year. The opposition is not that strong and most will lose a lot of time in the time trials. He is already 4th favorite to win the Giro, but I suspect that by the beginning of the Giro he will be outright favorite (after a win in T. - A.). Starting 2022 his power to weight ratio will be higher than that of Merckx , which is absolutely incredible. Remco will do what he wants in the GT's. Nobody will be able to touch him.

 

[Rik Van Looy]

It doesn't matter much. To be in level with, say Sagan, he needs to grab 3 RWC's first, means three years. And he needs to grab about 105 pro wins to be in level with Peto, so if he wins every week throughout the season, two and half years. If once a month, about ten yrs….so, looks like he has a task to do after all, no need to talk about Merckx just yet.

I don't think it will be that difficult for Remco to better the results of Sagan. 3 world titles and 2 Monuments. Plus 3 times Gent-Wevelgem (but that is of less importance). He also has 12 stage victories in the Tour de France and 4 in the Vuelta. Sagan is an underperfomer in the Monuments. Somebody like Gilbert has won more important races than him.