I see that the bookies are not taking risk any risk whatsoever. The odds Remco winning the Tour of San Juan have been slashed from 1,7 to 1,03, ie you win almost nothing in case Remco wins this Tour.
He is still fourth favorite to win the Giro, but he is closing in on the top 3. His odds declined from 15/17 to 11. I wonder how much these odds will decline after tonight.
My Italians friends are now completely convinced that he will win the Giro this year even without seeing any signs of him being a excellent climber. A lot of money will be placed on him winning the Giro. I won't be surprised if he is favorite starting the Giro.
I am not claiming that he really will win the Giro. My ItaliaOffcourse he's going for the win, but whatever the result here is going to be, it's no guarantuee for good results in the Giro against real competition. People starting to call him favorite are just delusional.
Bookies raise/lower the odds depending on public perception as well. It is no way a purely objective endeavour.
If people, caught in the Remco hypetrain, are willing to bet their savings at 11/1 then no sane booking website will place the odds at 17/1.
He wasn't at his best in Romandie. He suffered two crashes IIRC. Not a great data point. San Juan isn't either when comparing Evenepoel and Ganna , as it's an unimportant early early early season race, but at least it tells us that no one in this race is close to Evenepoel's current level / form. In a flat ITT with a very short climb, at least.He is probably overhyped right now but one can't deny that the signs are there. He constantly speaks of being in much better shape in every possible way. His form seems great and he is an improved rider from last year.
Let's look at his TT improvement versus a very strong young TTer, Filippo Ganna.
2019 Romandie ITT: lost 2,4 s/km (38 seconds over 17 km)
2019 Euro Champs ITT: gained 1 s/km (23 seconds over 22 km).
2019 World Champs ITT: gained 0,8 s/km (46 seconds over 55 km)
2020 San Juan ITT: gained 2,1 s/km (32 seconds over 15 km)
And Ganna is also still improving himself most likely.
This speaks volumes imho.
I think Remco will obliterate the opposition today.
The Giro is a big unknown but Evenepoel winning it is not out of the question.
I'm also fairly sure that for the Olympic and Worlds TT he and Dennis will be the biggest favourites.
He wasn't at his best in Romandie. He suffered two crashes IIRC. Not a great data point. San Juan isn't either when comparing Evenepoel and Ganna , as it's an unimportant early early early season race, but at least it tells us that no one in this race is close to Evenepoel's current level / form. In a flat ITT with a very short climb, at least.
I have no idea if he will destroy or obliterate the opposition today. I don't use those terms lightly.
Sure he's much lighter than 12 months ago and this time there's no Anacona on mutant form. So yeah, he should get the stage win, but by how much? No idea. Remember, he had already lost a bunch of weight at Adriatica Ionica last year and wasn't dominant uphill.
So no idea what to expect, really. He could go full Merckx on us or squeeze out a stage win, or anywhere in between.
Most of the young guys who joined this year are supposed to be decent climbers.If this lad is to win a GT, he will either have to move to a different team or DQS need to invest in some proper doms for him to get him round 3 weeks against the proper GT teams..
If this lad is to win a GT, he will either have to move to a different team or DQS need to invest in some proper doms for him to get him round 3 weeks against the proper GT teams.. Ala did great in the tour last year but collapsed at the end. Has this lad done anything over a weeks racing yet? Against decent opposition? He's good, yes, but give him a bit of time before making him one of the favourites for overall win. If he comes away with a stage win or 3 then it will be a great buzz for him. I'll wait until he's proven over the longer distances against decent opposition before calling him superman.
And I think other teams see his maiden year is done and dusted, it's business as usual from now on. No need to be overly polite anymore.
Maybe pull him kindly off the race when too much overreaching can be seen.
Also, we literally just saw a 20-year-old podium a Grand Tour and win three stages.
He did turn 21 a week later ofcourse.Also, we literally just saw a 20-year-old podium a Grand Tour and win three stages.
Today he was the big favorite in GC. In the Giro he will never be the favorite in GC (i assume). The team won't have to do all the work in the Giro, he can just follow other GC guys or other teams. I agree today the team was weak, but with Alaphilippe gone, there were only Serry and Stybar to do some real work left. In the Giro, he might get some support from Knox, if he actually is in a position to expect support, and if Knox (who wants to ride for his own GC) can be bothered to ride for him.Related to the result today:
- welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...
- the weakness of his team. Thinking at the Giro: his team will need to support him a lot better then today; who can support him in the mountains of his team?
Related to the result today:
- welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...
- the weakness of his team. Thinking at the Giro: his team will need to support him a lot better then today; who can support him in the mountains of his team?
That indeed sounds like a descent support team.Knox, Bagioli, Almeida, Cattaneo, Jungels, Devenyns.
Although this is on PCS.That indeed sounds like a descent support team.
Compared to other ITT'ers, he's much more aerodynamic because he's much smaller (1m71). Guys like Ganna, Bjerg, van Aert, Dumoulin... are 20cm taller.I can not believe that he is so much more aerodynamic than the rest.
Related to the result today:
- welcome to the Evenepoel sprint. If you ever wonder why he will not win large amount of races...
Compared to other ITT'ers, he's much more aerodynamic because he's much smaller (1m71). Guys like Ganna, Bjerg, van Aert, Dumoulin... are 20cm taller.
He's not necesarilly much more aerodynamic than other small riders, but those guys aren't good ITT'ers.
Not sure what you mean. He had been working for 15km himself (with a few others), while McNulty, Martin etc, were doing no work at all in the first group, and still Evenepoel was one of the strongest on the steepest part of the climb.Sevilla is reasonably close in build and he was an okay TT rider way back in the day. And he probably lost over 4.5 s/km on the non-climb part of the ITT.
With such power advantage (I do not believe that it's only aerodynamics) it's a mystery to me why Evenepoel isn't a better climber relatively.