It will be fun to watch how he will win races in the future. Of course he will win a lot of races, but the teams know his strength and won't let him ride away easily. A lot of riders will just stick to his wheel in the big races. His wins will probably always be because of pure strength and not tactics.
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I know that's what he said going into this race, but if it were about nothing except training, he could have soloed at any point in the stage, rather than near the end.
I'm not so sure it was. I think it might have been a test to see what he could get away with. If he has still something left in the tank in the 3rd week of the Giro when domestiques are wearing thin, and he needs to take back some time in GC, it wouldn't surprise me if he pulls a stunt like that. It could be more tactical than you might think at first glance.
He says it was a pity nobody followed his attack, but he didn't make any effort in trying to get Lampaert over the hill while he was in his wheel, he just dropped him and left him for dead. If it was a training ride, it also doesn't make sense for him to sit up after 13 or so km. He could just have gambled to go for the stage, and see if he could make it (like in San Sebastian). Whatever the initial intention, i believe his little escapade provided the team with some valuable info.
A training ride to test himself for 15kms or so, and then when he could not get a lead of a minute, then you turn off the gas.
Exactly. No chance he's doing something like this in a race he actually wants to win.
Sure, of course. But that's a training effort, if he really cared about winning this race I don't see this as the move. I think he has it in his head that he just might be able to hold off the entire peloton in some situations. But here the chase got organized and he couldn't.
He just wanted to see how strong he is right now. Testing effort.
Except for San Sebastian, Baloise Belgium Tour, Adriatica Ionica...?
You have to grant the different context. He’s prepping for the Giro right now, not trying to necessarily win Burgos. If his efforts at Burgos land him a win, great but whatever he does is all in the context of Giro prep.
I understand that, but he did try to win San Sebastian and those other races too. I wouldn't dismiss the possibility that he'll pull a stunt like that again in the Giro. Like he did many times in the past. Not unlike Pogacar's Vuelta "all or nothing" attack for the podium.
I think impetuousness is something he'll never lose, he seems to have incredible belief in himself. It's one of his most enjoyable and maybe best qualities. But I think it will be tempered for an event like the Giro, at least until or if he's out of the top spot. Totally can see an all-or-nothing attack from him...if it's warranted. But I don't think he's doing to go all Merckx and attack from way out while in the lead or anything like that.
Agreed.
Prediction? I think between 5th-10th. Losing some time, but nothing major. Can't see him crack or implode, but i think there will be a few true climbers that will dance away ultimately.
Realistically if He takes time in the first 2 ITT's as he should, then there are no need for random attacks.
Hard to say really. I think the weather will play an important role, and I don't think we have any references yet in this sort of heat. San Sebastian was warm, but 35ish degrees is another beast. That said, in the end result is secondary priority imo. I'd rather see him lose 20 seconds but really having a go at these guys, than losing 8 or 12 seconds by hanging on for dear life. San Juan was alright, Algarve was good, now it's time to be great.
Let's say he takes 3 minutes on Carapaz, he could easily lose those and more in 3 mountain stages if he proves to not be an elite climber yet. He could even drop back to 7th or 8th place, 2 minutes from a podium spot and 7 minutes from victory. Enticing him to go in the attack for the podium. He could even drop well outside the top 10. We simply don't know yet what is "realistic".
But if he performs as expected in the two ITT's they went let him up the road.
Armchair cyclist
Moderator
He is good, but the capitalised pronoun is usually reserved to deities.
I meant in a scenario not unlike for Pogacar in the Vuelta, in the 3rd week, trying to get on the podium. With domestiques at the end of their ropes, it might not be a matter of "letting him".
Dont wanna overreact but he's gonna be a huge threat at the Giro, becoming increasingly clear
I wanna see him race in a field with Quintana and Bernal as well. And a strong Froome who is good at pacing his efforts. This kid is crazy.
I wonder if Quick Step will soon start to considder skipping Jakobsen in the Giro. With Evenepoel a more and more serious topfavoruite, likely to take the pink jersey many days it would be a big advantage with a full team comitted to him instead of Jakobsen with some leadoutguys also. Jakobsen could just take Hodegs spot in the Vuelta instead then.
Bonimenier
BANNED
I doubt it. That would probably just increase the already huge pressure on his young shoulders.
Of course, he still has much to prove.
But still, up till now, every time he gets a "first real test", and there have been quite a lot of first real tests already, he impresses.
If he doesn't want pressure, perhaps he should at least pretend to suffer a bit when dropping everybody ;-)
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