Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[red_flanders]

The evolution of Remco Evenepoel: 'He has learned he cannot take five steps forward in a row forever'

The QuickStep-AlphaVinyl rider is targeting Grand Tour glory at the Vuelta a España in 2022

www.cyclingweekly.com

Looking forward to a good year. Program seems on point, fitness sounds like it's on point, and the attitude toward winning will always be there. Big year for him, he'll learn a lot and so will we. Exciting!

 

[red_flanders]

Given that several here thought he could win the Giro in 2020 if not for his crash, wouldn’t you expect him two years later to be stronger in the upcoming Vuelta? What do your expectations about the Vuelta imply for the contra factual 2020?

I think Pogačar makes a rather immense difference in expectations. I expect him to fight for the win in the Vuelta and to lose to Pogačar. I think most people hoped/expected him to fight for the win in the 2020 Giro but understood it was a wild card with his lack of prep. This field is shaping up to be a lot tougher.

 

[Netserk]

I think Pogačar makes a rather immense difference in expectations. I expect him to fight for the win in the Vuelta and to lose to Pogačar. I think most people hoped/expected him to fight for the win in the 2020 Giro but understood it was a wild card with his lack of prep. This field is shaping up to be a lot tougher.

Pogi at most makes a difference of 1 spot in the GC for Remco by himself. So if you think Evenepoel would fight for the win in the Vuelta without Pogi, you should expect him to fight for 2nd with Pogi there.

I don't see the major difference that makes, when most of the expectations are in the 3rd-5th range and only very few expect him to win the Vuelta.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Disappointment is a matter of degree. If something is lower (or whatever relevant metric) than one's expectations, it's disappointing. Maybe only a little, maybe a lot.

I see wildly different/incoherent/fuzzy expectations, so I try to make them clearer and more coherent. Why the great aversion towards making clear what your expectations are? It's clearly not like you don't have any.

EDIT: Do you still think he could have won the 2020 Giro, and how likely do you think it would have been for him to end up on the podium then? That is, what is your in retrospect updated expectations for that Giro?

Yes, i still think he would have won that Giro. There were 3 TT's iirc and the climbs were perfect for him. He was in stellar form as well and competition was hardly monstrous.

Sure, disappointment is a matter of degree. Basically, when something you hope for doesn't come true, there will always be a level of disappointment. And obviously i would "hope" he wins. So there'd be a level of disappointment if he doesn't when you look at it that way.

My reaction to that post is because i put little stock in the absolute terms in which certain things were presented. He needs to have done 3 weeks previously. Clearly 2 weeks and 6 days and 23 hours would be no good. Yet there have been talented youngsters who did podium on a first try, and plenty more who got close.

 

[Netserk]

Yes, i still think he would have won that Giro. There were 3 TT's iirc and the climbs were perfect for him. He was in stellar form as well and competition was hardly monstrous.

Sure, disappointment is a matter of degree. Basically, when something you hope for doesn't come true, there will always be a level of disappointment. And obviously i would "hope" he wins. So there'd be a level of disappointment if he doesn't when you look at it that way.

My reaction to that post is because i put little stock in the absolute terms in which certain things were presented. He needs to have done 3 weeks previously. Clearly 2 weeks and 6 days and 23 hours would be no good. Yet there have been talented youngsters who did podium on a first try, and plenty more who got close.

Hopes are always above what one expects. Am I really reading you wrong if I assume that you would be content if he finishes 3rd in the Vuelta, but not if he finished 6th? And that you think the former is more likely than the latter? I think that would match your Giro expectations, if you also expect the two Slovenians to both be in good form for the Vuelta.

 

[red_flanders]

Pogi at most makes a difference of 1 spot in the GC for Remco by himself. So if you think Evenepoel would fight for the win in the Vuelta without Pogi, you should expect him to fight for 2nd with Pogi there.

I don't see the major difference that makes, when most of the expectations are in the 3rd-5th range and only very few expect him to win the Vuelta.

Yes, I expect him to fight for second and I expect him to podium. I don't rule out any result for this guy with full prep.

I think no one is expecting him to win because of Pogačar, and that's a major difference from the Giro 2020. I think also a lot of folks saw him fade hard in that race and may have lesser expectations for him than they did previously. I disagree with that point of view, and think he has all the tools to do really well in a GT with the right prep. I'm excited to see what he can do, and still rule out nothing with this guy. He's kind of a nutter how much he believes in himself and how aggressively he takes racing. I love it. Can't wait.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Hopes are always above what one expects. Am I really reading you wrong if I assume that you would be content if he finishes 3rd in the Vuelta, but not if he finished 6th? And that you think the former is more likely than the latter? I think that would match your Giro expectations, if you also expect the two Slovenians to both be in good form for the Vuelta.

I can't remember having said anything about finishing third or fifth or tenth. I spoke about general form compared to what we have seen from others the previous years. Maybe you have my post confused with that of someone else. You were asking about his climbing abilities and what i spoke of Vlasov and Carthy.

 

[18-Valve. (pithy)]

That type of year would be an abject failure for him. That is what was largely expected 2 years ago. He needs to take the next step.

Most people have adjusted their expectations since then.

I think Evenepoel will be competitive in T-A (top-5 at least, probably a podium) and Switzerland (winner or 2nd place in a typical TdS field)

and of course loads of other results (another Algarve win for starters) That's why I picked him in the CQ game.

As for the Vuelta, as of right now we don't know if he's miles above his best post-crash level. I don't know if he can be bothered to race for 5th to 7th place or so.

Maybe someone can remember the exact quote, but didn't he recently make a comment about his football career? That maybe he could have given it another year, something like that.

Keeping in mind that cycling isn't his first love, I think his love for the sport is largely dependent on his results. I don't think he'll make a gazillion attempts to win his first Tour, like Cadel Evans did.

A GT podium will need to come quickly - this year or the next - or I could see him leaving the sport altogether a couple years from now.

 

[Netserk]

I can't remember having said anything about finishing third or fifth or tenth. I spoke about general form compared to what we have seen from others the previous years. Maybe you have my post confused with that of someone else. You were asking about his climbing abilities and what i spoke of Vlasov and Carthy.

I don't claim you have said that, if so I would have quoted you. I made it clear that it was an assumption of mine, that it is my interpretation of what you have written. That is why I tried to sum it up with clear questions that you could answer, which would reveal if my interpretation was correct or not.

I think that the median of your probability density function of where you expect Evenepoel to end up in the Vuelta GC is between 3rd and 4th. Correct, incorrect?

I want to update my beliefs about your beliefs, so that they are more accurate. A confirmation of my hypothesis would help with that.

 

[Bonimenier]

I'm enjoying this dance where Netserk wants LIYF to say something he can use against him later and LIYF not wanting to give Netserk ammunition for the future.

 

[Netserk]

I'm enjoying this dance where Netserk wants more open, clear and honest expectations and opinions, and a forum where people have a better understanding each other.

Fixed.

I don't see the value in hiding one's opinions and not improving others' understanding of one, but I'm open to arguments as to why that would be preferable.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Like i already said, Netserk, it would depend on circumstances. I thought i had made that clear. If he finished 3rd behind Sivakov and Higuita , i would be disappointed. This comes from the same belief of thinking he would have won the 2020 Giro. Yet if he finished 5th behind Pogacar, Roglic, Bernal (in some alternate reality where he would be ready in time) and Dumoulin for instance, i would not. I won't be held to stupid claims or numbers of where he should end up in GC. It depends. Maybe if he steamrolls the Slovenians in Tirreno and Itzulia, i'll try to accommodate you with a bold prediction.

 

[Netserk]

Like i already said, Netserk, it would depend on circumstances. I thought i had made that clear. If he finished 3rd behind Sivakov and Higuita , i would be disappointed. This comes from the same belief of thinking he would have won the 2020 Giro. Yet if he finished 5th behind Pogacar, Roglic, Bernal (in some alternate reality where he would be ready in time) and Dumoulin for instance, i would not. I won't be held to stupid claims or numbers of where he should end up in GC. It depends. Maybe if he steamrolls the Slovenians in Tirreno and Itzulia, i'll try to accommodate you with a bold prediction.

Circumstances are baked in your estimate of the probability of an event happening. Of course there is great uncertainty, but not everything is equally likely, and there is (at least implicitly) a GC position that is the median of expected outcomes. I'm sure you know what that means, if not I will try to explain that to you.

At this point, do you think it's more likely that he finishes worse than 4th at the Vuelta or that he finishes 4th or better? All outcomes fall in one of the two categories, which do you think is more likely?

If you want, you can tell me both your conditional (given those are clear) and unconditional expectations.

EDIT: I'm not demanding that you should make a claim of what the future will be. I'm asking what your expectations are, what you think is most likely. There is no shame in being surprised by what eventually happens, so I don't see the risk in being "held to claims", just because one told what one expected beforehand. Are you embarrassed by your expectations or why do you want to hide them?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Because there has been plenty of ridicule going around in this thread every time he does not "deliver" on what somebody "expects". Assuming he doesn't falter in 3 weeks, i expect him somewhere between Pogacar and Vlasov. I guess that would be somewhere in the top 6, with a shot at the podium.

 

[Big Doopie]

I'm enjoying this dance where Netserk wants LIYF to say something he can use against him later and LIYF not wanting to give Netserk ammunition for the future.

Lol. I was wondering what was going on. I have Netserk on ignore so I am only seeing one side of the debate.

 

[memyselfandI]

Yes, i still think he would have won that Giro. There were 3 TT's iirc and the climbs were perfect for him. He was in stellar form as well and competition was hardly monstrous.

Sure, disappointment is a matter of degree. Basically, when something you hope for doesn't come true, there will always be a level of disappointment. And obviously i would "hope" he wins. So there'd be a level of disappointment if he doesn't when you look at it that way.

My reaction to that post is because i put little stock in the absolute terms in which certain things were presented. He needs to have done 3 weeks previously. Clearly 2 weeks and 6 days and 23 hours would be no good. Yet there have been talented youngsters who did podium on a first try, and plenty more who got close.

What I'm trying to say is that GT's are quite much mental work too. Things like Superman Lopez last year TdF and Vuelta..indeed his best results in GT's happen when he finishes all stages!

 

[YavorD]

What I'm trying to say is that GT's are quite much mental work too. Things like Superman Lopez last year TdF and Vuelta..indeed his best results in GT's happen when he finishes all stages!

I'd still rate Lopez' performance in the Vuelta higher than say Vlasov's Giro.
That said for judging Remco's performance in the Vuelta we have to take into account stage-by-stage performances rather than just the ranking. For example, to me (and guess many other people) Almeida's Giro 2021 was more impressive than the 2020 one.

I can that I expect Remco to be in somewhere in between Almeida's Giro performances. Anything less than the 2020 one (if everything in the preparation and the race itself goes right) and I'd be reluctant to believe he'll dominate or fight Pogacar (if healthy etc..) in the GT GC's.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What I'm trying to say is that GT's are quite much mental work too. Things like Superman Lopez last year TdF and Vuelta..indeed his best results in GT's happen when he finishes all stages!

You we're talking about it being necessary to * first * finish a full GT and how his Giro didn't meet that criterium since he got off the bike with 2 stages and a closing TT to go, * before * being able to perform in a next GT. Your argument was physicall stress, not mental work.
I think we all understand the concept of finishing a race in order for it to count as a result.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Yes, I expect him to fight for second and I expect him to podium. I don't rule out any result for this guy with full prep.

I think no one is expecting him to win because of Pogačar, and that's a major difference from the Giro 2020. I think also a lot of folks saw him fade hard in that race and may have lesser expectations for him than they did previously. I disagree with that point of view, and think he has all the tools to do really well in a GT with the right prep. I'm excited to see what he can do, and still rule out nothing with this guy. He's kind of a nutter how much he believes in himself and how aggressively he takes racing. I love it. Can't wait.

Assuming no big crash happens, both Roglic and Pogacar will have their Tour battle in the legs. I wouldn't expect them to be in terminator mode.
Roglic still managed to win the Vuelta in 2020 but he was pretty gassed and far from unbeatable.
Pogacar skipped the Vuelta twice due to fatigue so no indication than he'll be super strong in his second consecutive GT.
Not saying that Remco will win but Rog&Pog likely won't be as unreachable as they usually are increasing chances for other guys (unless one of them bombs out of the Tour earlier)

 

[memyselfandI]

You we're talking about it being necessary to * first * finish a full GT and how his Giro didn't meet that criterium since he got off the bike with 2 stages and a closing TT to go, * before * being able to perform in a next GT. Your argument was physicall stress, not mental work.
I think we all understand the concept of finishing a race in order for it to count as a result.

Yeah true dat, but they are yin and yang really. You build both. Every time athletes achieve some training or racing goal, they grow from both sides. More or less at a time. Who knows if Evenepoel, when he climbed off last year, took that hard and personally inside his head and kept it. If he did it, it was good lesson and motivation engine for this season.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Yeah true dat, but they are yin and yang really. You build both. Every time athletes achieve some training or racing goal, they grow from both sides. More or less at a time. Who knows if Evenepoel, when he climbed off last year, took that hard and personally inside his head and kept it. If he did it, it was good lesson and motivation engine for this season.

Sure. My point was that the extra two and a half days will hardly be a deciding factor when it comes to him being able to podium or not, which was what you were initially arguing.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

2022 will tell us a lot about what Remco will be capable of in the future. Of course, everybody expects him to beat Pogacar in the TdF in the future. Furthermore, he is regarded a future winner of the Ardennes triple, a future World Champion, and winner of all three GTs.

I‘m honestly curious how 2022 will be going. Most important thing is, he stays healthy and doesn‘t crash. He‘s a pleasure to watch: full of positive energy. And I am sure he‘ll race to win from February on, right from the start…

 

[red_flanders]

2022 will tell us a lot about what Remco will be capable of in the future. Of course, everybody expects him to beat Pogacar in the TdF in the future. Furthermore, he is regarded a future winner of the Ardennes triple, a future World Champion, and winner of all three GTs.

I don’t think many people think he’s going to beat Pogačar. Where is the weakness? Even if he and Pog are equal in strength, the sprint would decide things. Hard to see where he’ll be strong enough to beat an in form Pog. I think he will win some GTs, course and field depending.

Agree this year will tell much, and agree he’s got a chance to do quite well in the Ardennes, but again the sprint is too much a limiter against the top guys to be talking triple crown, IMO.

 

[hayneplane]

I don’t think many people think he’s going to beat Pogačar. Where is the weakness? Even if he and Pog are equal in strength, the sprint would decide things. Hard to see where he’ll be strong enough to beat an in form Pog. I think he will win some GTs, course and field depending.

Agree this year will tell much, and agree he’s got a chance to do quite well in the Ardennes, but again the sprint is too much a limiter against the top guys to be talking triple crown, IMO.

Where he can beat Pogacar - He can put time into him potentially on flattish ITTs especially courses that reward strong aerodynamics and also TTTs where Quick Step have always been seriously strong if they come back into vogue in GTs.

He might also put time in on long raids in hilly undulating days where he could majorly weaken and stress Team UAE albeit Pogi has shown he is more than handy in this aspect himself as well if he takes off the leash and chooses to respond personally.

All that taken into account he will still need to find a lot more than has been able to be shown so far to be able to win with both in great form as Red Flanders rightly points out bonus seconds could be a big factor giving Pogacar maybe another 30+ seconds in the bag.

 

[rghysens]

Where he can beat Pogacar - He can put time into him potentially on flattish ITTs especially courses that reward strong aerodynamics and also TTTs where Quick Step have always been seriously strong if they come back into vogue in GTs.

He might also put time in on long raids in hilly undulating days where he could majorly weaken and stress Team UAE albeit Pogi has shown he is more than handy in this aspect himself as well if he takes off the leash and chooses to respond personally.

All that taken into account he will still need to find a lot more than has been able to be shown so far to be able to win with both in great form as Red Flanders rightly points out bonus seconds could be a big factor giving Pogacar maybe another 30+ seconds in the bag.

Before we assess Evenepoels possibilities as a GT rider, we have to know how he performs in the high mountains. It's his 4th pro year, and so far he has raced only very few high mountain stages, and hasn't performed good in any of them (circumstances weren't always in his favor, but still....). We assume he'll be good, but we don't KNOW.