Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Netserk]

but a real bump/swelling since it wasn't a high speed crash.

How slowly do you think he descended when he crashed?

 

[Riek s]

i guess 100km/h since they weren't doing a corner or breaking for motards.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Not entirely sure, but it looked like Roglic took time between 4 and 2.8 k from the finish. At that point he was 43s behind Roglic and Mas... that means he basically didn't lose any extra time after that point, while Roglic got some help from Lopez, unlike Evenepoel (Ayuso either immediately passed him, or immediately got in his wheel). He even closed the gap down to Mas by cutting it in half. So he couldn't have been completely dead. Then again, as i have pointed out many times, even if he is bad or off form, he is somehow able to limit his losses almost every time. So while it doesn't mean he is out of it, it also doesn't mean it was merely a 5 minute crisis. Tomorrow should tell us more.

 

[Peyroteo94]

He is screwed now because Astana will help Jumbo tomorrow

 

[steffr222]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1566136280244682753

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1566136280244682753?s=21&t=3AKv2-G1-kMw6hzpVBMx7g

that’s not cracking at all. Hope he‘s going to strike back tomorrow

 

[peterfin]

That 5 minute crisis may be result of him going in his red zone for too long when trying to close the gap with Roglic. During an interview he said that if he settled for a good rhythm immediately, he might have lost 15-20 sec less. I think there is reason to believe this based on his final 2-3 km. He also pointed to the fast early part of the stage that made his muscles feel really stiff all day. I think this points to his body feeling the impact of his injury and not because his shape is on a downward slope. Meanwhile Roglic had great legs today (seeing his performance compared to Mas) and the motivation to complete the efforts of his teammates and that was basically the difference we are seeing.

I assume JV will try to make the next stage as difficult as possible for Remco and accelerate early during the steep parts of the final climb. It's crucial that Remco paces himself during that part so he can diesel himself back during the less steep slopes of the final 10 km. Hopefully he has some support of his team during the early part of the climb. For Roglic it's also a bit of a gamble. His success depends on Remco having the same issues as today and support (e.g. from Astana) or he basically needs to go all alone. If Remco diesels back after the steep part is over, it's probably a failure.

 

[spalco]

It was a bad day, but not a terrible for remco. The race is still open either way and remco has the advantage - don't rejoice yet, remco haters.

 

[Sciatic]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1566136280244682753

View: https://twitter.com/ammattipyoraily/status/1566136280244682753?s=21&t=3AKv2-G1-kMw6hzpVBMx7g

that’s not cracking at all. Hope he‘s going to strike back tomorrow

Hmm, these times aren’t really a valid measure since they didn’t ride it in the 90’s

 

[Sciatic]

That 5 minute crisis may be result of him going in his red zone for too long when trying to close the gap with Roglic. During an interview he said that if he settled for a good rhythm immediately, he might have lost 15-20 sec less. I think there is reason to believe this based on his final 2-3 km. He also pointed to the fast early part of the stage that made his muscles feel really stiff all day. I think this points to his body feeling the impact of his injury and not because his shape is on a downward slope. Meanwhile Roglic had great legs today (seeing his performance compared to Mas) and the motivation to complete the efforts of his teammates and that was basically the difference we are seeing.

I assume JV will try to make the next stage as difficult as possible for Remco and accelerate early during the steep parts of the final climb. It's crucial that Remco paces himself during that part so he can diesel himself back during the less steep slopes of the final 10 km. Hopefully he has some support of his team during the early part of the climb. For Roglic it's also a bit of a gamble. His success depends on Remco having the same issues as today and support (e.g. from Astana) or he basically needs to go all alone. If Remco diesels back after the steep part is over, it's probably a failure.

Regardless of outcome, It’s not a failure when a rider in Roglic’s position (already multiple winner of this race) goes all in for the win.

 

[Extinction]

To be clear, I am not saying the crash does not affect him. Just wondering if it can be the sole cause of his drop in performance, especially if he does badly tomorrow.

I agree with RR that there are probably many factors, including the heat, a possible premature peak in his form, and Jumbo/MAL getting better (or fading less as some like to say).

He crashed hard and is now dealing with the repercusions. The physical strain only upsets the mental game and thus his legs. He'll recover tomorrow, because Roglic shot too many bullets today and he can't keep that up.

 

[dazaau]

He crashed hard and is now dealing with the repercusions. The physical strain only upsets the mental game and thus his legs. He'll recover tomorrow, because Roglic shot too many bullets today and he can't keep that up.

Roglic isn't exactly a noob when it comes to this. I don't know what is going to happen tomorrow but I doubt Roglic is out of bullets before the queen stage.

That crash was sucky timing. Remco has been super strong so we will see how he goes tomorrow. Still has a good buffer and he won't make the mistake of going too deep to chase like he seems to have today (in hindsight, but you have to understand why he went deep to hold the gap in his position)

 

[Oldermanish]

Team depth is rather poor so I don't see where a sustained pressure will come from before a Roglic attack (with apologies to Chris Harper who is doing a good job, but hardly enough to put serious pressure on major GC riders)

In other words, I am not sure that Evenepoel losing minutes is a realistic scenario

Movistar

 

[Oldermanish]

Roglic isn't exactly a noob when it comes to this. I don't know what is going to happen tomorrow but I doubt Roglic is out of bullets before the queen stage.

That crash was sucky timing. Remco has been super strong so we will see how he goes tomorrow. Still has a good buffer and he won't make the mistake of going too deep to chase like he seems to have today (in hindsight, but you have to understand why he went deep to hold the gap in his position)

This is Roglic we're talking about. He's not getting weaker.

 

[SHAD0W93]

There's like 5 reasons that could explain today, and I think it's pretty unlikely 1 explains 100% of it and the rest are bs.

Crash could've easily played a part. But I don't doubt Roglic and MAL have gotten better during the race. Similarly, fatigue, altitude and heat could play a role, but I don't think those are necessarily too big.

I feel like it’s a combination of the others getting better, potentially losing some form, the crash, and going hard too early instead of pacing himself. I don’t know how much stock I’d put into the heat theory when he was the only GC (potentially any) rider warming up for the TT outside in the sun with 3 fans and the vest when Roglic and Mas were in the shade, many more fans, and the vest.

Tomorrow was always the test and if he can hold on to the jersey I think he can go the distance. What would be good for the race and our entertainment is if he’s down 1 min or less and he starts going on LBL or CSS attacks.

 

[Extinction]

Roglic isn't exactly a noob when it comes to this. I don't know what is going to happen tomorrow but I doubt Roglic is out of bullets before the queen stage.

That crash was sucky timing. Remco has been super strong so we will see how he goes tomorrow. Still has a good buffer and he won't make the mistake of going too deep to chase like he seems to have today (in hindsight, but you have to understand why he went deep to hold the gap in his position)

Well I don't think you are considering that Roglic HAS to attack and has not been in this position before, thus I doubt he's going to get stronger, because the efforts he's going to be forced to make to overtake Evenepoel are going to come with a price. As I see it, everything hinges on Remco's condition, whether or not yesterday was just a blip in an otherwise stellar performance in this Vuelta, or he has reached a point of no return. We'll know more today.

 

[dazaau]

Well I don't think you are considering that Roglic HAS to attack and has not been in this position before, thus I doubt he's going to get stronger, because the efforts he's going to be forced to make to overtake Evenepoel are going to come with a price. As I see it, everything hinges on Remco's condition, whether or not yesterday was just a blip in an otherwise stellar performance in this Vuelta, or he has reached a point of no return. We'll know more today.

All I'm saying is that if Roglic only had one shot, I doubt it was that. I'm sure Roglic won't wake up with super form today, but I doubt it will be any worse than yesterday.

If Remco was just having an off day yesterday following the crash he should fare ok and has time up his sleeve.

And you are right, Roglic has to attack tonight, MAL will fancy a stage and gc improvement, surely ineos see a chance for their young talent - going to be good tv!

 

[Extinction]

All I'm saying is that if Roglic only had one shot, I doubt it was that. I'm sure Roglic won't wake up with super form today, but I doubt it will be any worse than yesterday.

If Remco was just having an off day yesterday following the crash he should fare ok and has time up his sleeve.

And you are right, Roglic has to attack tonight, MAL will fancy a stage and gc improvement, surely ineos see a chance for their young talent - going to be good tv!

If Remco shows signs of further weakness today it's more than the crash, and his Vuelta is at risk, whereas if he recomposes himself the ball passes back to his corner. On the face of It, I'd say his performance yesterday was owing to a combination of post-crash syndrome and accumulated fatigue and had only one or the other struck he would have lost nothing or very little. In any case, he needs to rebound immediately for the third week and his confidence going into it.

 

[Riek s]

on a side note, i see a lot of times where the first part of the peleton is in a single line, Remco being in that single line, almost every day. I wonder if this isn't wasting energy as well... If looking at it from a drag perspective:

Drag when riding in a single line:

Drag in a peleton:

So think the positionning of the team for GC can still be worked on. This is probably a bit agrivated because he has been in red for 10stages by now.

 

[BR2]

on a side note, i see a lot of times where the first part of the peleton is in a single line, Remco being in that single line, almost every day. I wonder if this isn't wasting energy as well... If looking at it from a drag perspective:

Drag when riding in a single line:

Drag in a peleton:

So think the positionning of the team for GC can still be worked on. This is probably a bit agrivated because he has been in red for 10stages by now.

Uhm, yeah, but usually you still try to not be that 6% rider as a GC leader.. I mean, there are reasons.

 

[Salvarani]

He has put in some great performances and efforts so far, but the accumulated fatigue catches up with everyone though over three weeks and that is why GTs is so hard to win.

Everyone will be throwing their kitchen sink against Remco. Both today and during next week. Especially if he is fading.

The momentum has swung after yesterday and the question is if he can swing it back again. He is still the leader of this race but it is gonna be a brutal day and third week coming up for him. Both physically and mentally. We will see what happens.

 

[Extinction]

He has put in some great performances and efforts so far, but the accumulated fatigue catches up with everyone though over three weeks and that is why GTs is so hard to win.

Everyone will be throwing their kitchen sink against Remco. Both today and during next week. Especially if he is fading.

The momentum has swung after yesterday and the question is if he can swing it back again. He is still the leader of this race but it is gonna be a brutal day and third week coming up for him. Both physically and mentally. We will see what happens.

Well, it's said that everyone has his off day in a GC and that you just hope it doesn't hit on a critical stage or, if it does, that it's not a total drop in form causing one to concede minutes not seconds. Today shall reveal more, of course, but loosing 48 secs appears to put Remco's only downward turn in the former category and not the latter of bad day scenarios. Moreover, he did crash hard the other day so, if not a given, it was ever going to be likely that within a few days he'd have experienced something akin to yesterday. The important thing was not to collapse completely and, having avoided catastrophy, bounce back with a vengeance or at least not be troubled to follow the inevitable accellerations that will try to break him. Hopefully we see him back on the rebound today.

 

[Pantani_lives]

The dream scenario would be if he lost the red jersey today, but took it back on Saturday. However that's extremely unlikely. More realistically he needs to fight for every second today, not panic and keep pushing the pace that he can handle. If he still has a one minute lead after today he remains the favorite. With less than half a minute it would be much harder to hang on.

Today is clearly the toughest stage. The final week doesn't look that tough on paper. It has two relatively easy MTFs on Wednesday and Thursday, and a tough Saturday stage with multiple climbs but no MTF. The danger in that one will be to get isolated and having to do all the work himself.

 

[KZD]

He has put in some great performances and efforts so far, but the accumulated fatigue catches up with everyone though over three weeks and that is why GTs is so hard to win.

Everyone will be throwing their kitchen sink against Remco. Both today and during next week. Especially if he is fading.

The momentum has swung after yesterday and the question is if he can swing it back again. He is still the leader of this race but it is gonna be a brutal day and third week coming up for him. Both physically and mentally. We will see what happens.

I worry more about today than about last week. If he manages to defend the red jersey today, he probably only loses it on stage 20 (but manages to keep the podium) unless Roglic is closer and picks up a lot of bonus seconds on stages 17-18-19.

 

[Riek s]

Dare i say his bad day was due to his crash?. not sure how good he is now, but seems a lot better than yesterday.

 

[Big Doopie]

https://images.app.goo.gl/Yv4wZ4WoFqDE1scW9