- Mar 29, 2012
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My profession is very much about truth seeking (as a certified expert in 'doesn't-matter-what-but-something-complex') so I always dive quite deep into these seemingly innocent events that inevitably cause a lot of wild conspiracy theories.
So here we go:
1. Did Evenepoel flat?
I say yes.
According to him, and as seen in the twitter vid by a spectator pinching the rear tire, yes. According to Logic-is-my-friend, a racing commissaire has written in his daily report that Evenepoel had a rear flat. I must honestly say again that I still don't see it very well from the footage, but I have no reason to believe differently than Remco having a rear flat.
2. When did Evenepoel had a flat?
I don't know for sure, but I would say it doesn't matter.
According to his strava file, he was still going at a pretty decent pace into the last 3K (check it out here: https://www.strava.com/activities/7764975777/analysis/16825/17064 )
So even if he had a slow flat, he could still keep up (more or less) with the group (and even take some curves as the last 5K was pretty curvy), until he couldn't. So when did he have a flat? We don't know for sure, but it's safe to assume he wouldn't ride a tire at very low pressure at 50K/hr in those curves.
The question is: does it matter? As long as he is going with the group he is in (even if he is losing positions), he has no urgent mechanical, but ofcourse he has that card to play with in the last 3K. Did he play that card? It could be. Was he allowed to play that card? Yes. If one says he wasn't, it means those support the idea that a rider has to suffer / accept being dropped in the last 3K with a (rideable) slow flat, or have to switch bikes just before the 3K banner, while they are still going good speeds in the group. That's exactly why the 3K rule is there: so the race leader doesn't loose the GT because of a flat, as those writing the race rules decided that this wasn't in the spirit of a fair race.
I would like to add that it's logistically much more difficult to have a quick bike / wheel change in the last 3K with riders all over the road (being dropped after setting the pace until the 3K banner), so you can't fix the mechanical in 10-20 seconds, but you loose a lot of time simply by waiting on your team car.
3. Should Evenepoel get the time of the first chase group according to the 3K rule?
It's safe to say Evenepoel was still in the big group the moment he slowed down and waved his arm to indicate he had a flat.
We saw images of Roglic attacking, with Evenepoel only visible/reaching that same place on the climb 40s later with riders all over the road and gaps between riders / little groups. But at that time (check Strava again) Evenepoel was already waving for 40 seconds. So at the base of the climb, Evenepoel already slowed down (within 3K), and it's safe to assume the group was still intact there. Let's not forget that just after the 3K banner, many riders just start freewheeling, especially with that climb. Those who suggest Evenepoel was part of a 2nd or 3rd group of riders (those who were freewheeling after the 3K banner) have to take those dynamics into account while judging the group he should be in. The jury choose (logically) for the first chase group as all of the top 10 was in there, and it made most sense to assume that Evenepoel, without a flat, would be in that group.
4. Did Roglic attack knowing Remco had a flat?
I say it could have played a role he didn't see Remco in the front, but in any way, it doesn't matter. Roglic was 110% allowed to go for it, whatever happened behind him.
I would assume Roglic was more eager to attack when he saw Remco was missing in the front 20-30 riders at the start of that hill, so that ofcourse gives some extra stimulus to attack. Maybe Roglic already saw Remco drifting back before that hill and decided he would go full on in the attack. Maybe it didn't influence his decision. But in any way, it was no way a 'dirty' move, even if he would have been fully aware of a mechanical by Remco. The race was on and everybody was free to make a move. I do believe, however, that if Evenepoel didn't have a flat (and was still in position), he would have reacted on Roglic, and the dynamics of those last 2K could have been totally different with Roglic NOT going all out until the end. Roglic fans think it's unfair that Roglic didn't gain more time on Evenepoel because of the 3K rule, but they fail to see that Roglic' attack was probably succesful thanks to the bad luck of Remco the scenarios in which Evenepoel influenced Roglic' decisions / attack, if he didn't flat.
So what happened, most likely?
Evenepoel had a hole in his tire somewhere between 10-3K out. It didn't hurt him too much going at high speeds on the straights, but it's safe to say, based on him loosing positions between 7K and 3K out, it hampered his ability to take curves (as a result he lost positions). Evenepoel mentioned, in his interview after the race, that they reconned the finish and that he found it dangerous and slippery and thus was not in the front, but I feel this is an excuse for him covering up that he knew he was slowly flatting and he was hoping to reach the 3K banner without losing contact with the main peloton.
So once he reached the 3K banner, he could wave his arm and because of the inevitable splits on the climb and riders dropping out in the last 3K, it was the smartest thing to change ASAP after that 3K banner (any further and the race commissaires could have assigned him to a 3rd /4th / 5th group on the road, and by the look of things, there were riders scattered all over the road).
Judging by Remcos total lack of stress and panic, his DS probably already told him he wouldn't lose time on the main peloton so he was clearly very relaxed and had his mindset on changing bikes slowly and riding in slowly. He probably didn't know at that point that Roglic just attacked and he was at the mercy of the chasing group to keep the gap small.
The problems (with the forum mob) started for Remco the moment Roglic attacked. Because people can't get their head around the fact that Roglic did an all-out effort, and while this Vuelta is a battle between Remco and Roglic, for some minutes we saw a heroic Roglic giving it his all, vs. a Remco riding like a Sunday morning tourist, and in the end, Roglic only gaining 8 seconds. The crash made for extra drama no one wanted, not even the Remco mob.
But Remco really can't do anything about his flat. 'First of all, it prevented him for defending his GC during Roglic' attack. He couldn't contribute in the chase, and Roglic probably kept going hard because Evenepoel was nowhere to be seen. Remco couldn't ignore his flat and handled it the best way possible, within the rules. He wasn't forced by any rule to ride as hard as possible after his bike change, so you can't blame him for taking it easy.
What didn't happen, most likely (conspiracy / hate stuff):
So here we go:
1. Did Evenepoel flat?
I say yes.
According to him, and as seen in the twitter vid by a spectator pinching the rear tire, yes. According to Logic-is-my-friend, a racing commissaire has written in his daily report that Evenepoel had a rear flat. I must honestly say again that I still don't see it very well from the footage, but I have no reason to believe differently than Remco having a rear flat.
2. When did Evenepoel had a flat?
I don't know for sure, but I would say it doesn't matter.
According to his strava file, he was still going at a pretty decent pace into the last 3K (check it out here: https://www.strava.com/activities/7764975777/analysis/16825/17064 )
So even if he had a slow flat, he could still keep up (more or less) with the group (and even take some curves as the last 5K was pretty curvy), until he couldn't. So when did he have a flat? We don't know for sure, but it's safe to assume he wouldn't ride a tire at very low pressure at 50K/hr in those curves.
The question is: does it matter? As long as he is going with the group he is in (even if he is losing positions), he has no urgent mechanical, but ofcourse he has that card to play with in the last 3K. Did he play that card? It could be. Was he allowed to play that card? Yes. If one says he wasn't, it means those support the idea that a rider has to suffer / accept being dropped in the last 3K with a (rideable) slow flat, or have to switch bikes just before the 3K banner, while they are still going good speeds in the group. That's exactly why the 3K rule is there: so the race leader doesn't loose the GT because of a flat, as those writing the race rules decided that this wasn't in the spirit of a fair race.
I would like to add that it's logistically much more difficult to have a quick bike / wheel change in the last 3K with riders all over the road (being dropped after setting the pace until the 3K banner), so you can't fix the mechanical in 10-20 seconds, but you loose a lot of time simply by waiting on your team car.
3. Should Evenepoel get the time of the first chase group according to the 3K rule?
It's safe to say Evenepoel was still in the big group the moment he slowed down and waved his arm to indicate he had a flat.
We saw images of Roglic attacking, with Evenepoel only visible/reaching that same place on the climb 40s later with riders all over the road and gaps between riders / little groups. But at that time (check Strava again) Evenepoel was already waving for 40 seconds. So at the base of the climb, Evenepoel already slowed down (within 3K), and it's safe to assume the group was still intact there. Let's not forget that just after the 3K banner, many riders just start freewheeling, especially with that climb. Those who suggest Evenepoel was part of a 2nd or 3rd group of riders (those who were freewheeling after the 3K banner) have to take those dynamics into account while judging the group he should be in. The jury choose (logically) for the first chase group as all of the top 10 was in there, and it made most sense to assume that Evenepoel, without a flat, would be in that group.
4. Did Roglic attack knowing Remco had a flat?
I say it could have played a role he didn't see Remco in the front, but in any way, it doesn't matter. Roglic was 110% allowed to go for it, whatever happened behind him.
I would assume Roglic was more eager to attack when he saw Remco was missing in the front 20-30 riders at the start of that hill, so that ofcourse gives some extra stimulus to attack. Maybe Roglic already saw Remco drifting back before that hill and decided he would go full on in the attack. Maybe it didn't influence his decision. But in any way, it was no way a 'dirty' move, even if he would have been fully aware of a mechanical by Remco. The race was on and everybody was free to make a move. I do believe, however, that if Evenepoel didn't have a flat (and was still in position), he would have reacted on Roglic, and the dynamics of those last 2K could have been totally different with Roglic NOT going all out until the end. Roglic fans think it's unfair that Roglic didn't gain more time on Evenepoel because of the 3K rule, but they fail to see that Roglic' attack was probably succesful thanks to the bad luck of Remco the scenarios in which Evenepoel influenced Roglic' decisions / attack, if he didn't flat.
So what happened, most likely?
Evenepoel had a hole in his tire somewhere between 10-3K out. It didn't hurt him too much going at high speeds on the straights, but it's safe to say, based on him loosing positions between 7K and 3K out, it hampered his ability to take curves (as a result he lost positions). Evenepoel mentioned, in his interview after the race, that they reconned the finish and that he found it dangerous and slippery and thus was not in the front, but I feel this is an excuse for him covering up that he knew he was slowly flatting and he was hoping to reach the 3K banner without losing contact with the main peloton.
So once he reached the 3K banner, he could wave his arm and because of the inevitable splits on the climb and riders dropping out in the last 3K, it was the smartest thing to change ASAP after that 3K banner (any further and the race commissaires could have assigned him to a 3rd /4th / 5th group on the road, and by the look of things, there were riders scattered all over the road).
Judging by Remcos total lack of stress and panic, his DS probably already told him he wouldn't lose time on the main peloton so he was clearly very relaxed and had his mindset on changing bikes slowly and riding in slowly. He probably didn't know at that point that Roglic just attacked and he was at the mercy of the chasing group to keep the gap small.
The problems (with the forum mob) started for Remco the moment Roglic attacked. Because people can't get their head around the fact that Roglic did an all-out effort, and while this Vuelta is a battle between Remco and Roglic, for some minutes we saw a heroic Roglic giving it his all, vs. a Remco riding like a Sunday morning tourist, and in the end, Roglic only gaining 8 seconds. The crash made for extra drama no one wanted, not even the Remco mob.
But Remco really can't do anything about his flat. 'First of all, it prevented him for defending his GC during Roglic' attack. He couldn't contribute in the chase, and Roglic probably kept going hard because Evenepoel was nowhere to be seen. Remco couldn't ignore his flat and handled it the best way possible, within the rules. He wasn't forced by any rule to ride as hard as possible after his bike change, so you can't blame him for taking it easy.
What didn't happen, most likely (conspiracy / hate stuff):
- Remco faked a flat (the race commissaire says differently)
- Remco had to stop at 5K and change there (he was still hitting 60K/hr at 3.3K from the finish... who on this forum would stop or demand a rider to stop?).
- Remco was already dropped from the peloton the moment he stopped for a bike change (the moment Remco stopped just after the 3K banner, is the moment half of the riders start soft-pedalling just because their work is done / they have nothing to gain anymore for riding hard, so the image of splits / gaps in the peloton at that moment is not representative for the position Remco was in)
- Roglic attacked because he knew Remco had a flat and that's bad sportmanship (he would have attacked anyway, Remco not visible probably gave him extra reason though, but there is nothing wrong with the attack anyway)
Great post. As a lurker on these forums for many years it makes me glad there are posters that are factual and methodical in their approach. Especially since last night was a step towards flat-earth territory.
- Jul 4, 2016
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Could you expand on that a bit?
- Jan 3, 2019
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I read the unfolding in the stage 16 topic with a lot of disbelief. It would be very satisfying to see Remco get the better of his competitors in one of the coming stages.
Shame that Roglic is out of the race. His presence would have given a possible final victory by Remco more appeal, but on the other hand there won't be any less significance.
Shame that Roglic is out of the race. His presence would have given a possible final victory by Remco more appeal, but on the other hand there won't be any less significance.
- Mar 29, 2012
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apologies for the TLTR post, I will try to refrain from that until they finish in Madrid!
One thing I want to stress: I want Remco to win this race fair and square, but I am deeply sad about what happened to Roglic.
Not only for him personally, but also for the race: It's a better race, and a bigger glory, if you win against formidable opponents.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Great work Volderke, but i didn't read it because:
1/ We know he had a flat, it is acknowledged in the stage report and verified by a UCI commissaire.
2/ From his Strava file, we can see he was actually going 4s faster than Fred Wright who finished with Roglic's group, which seems highly unlikely to be doing uphill on a flat tire. And since we know he had a flat tire (see #1), it is safe to assume the point where he punctured is where he suddenly lost speed on his Strava segment, which is roughly 140 meters before he stopped. Being well within 3k from the finish. Even in case people still doubt the validity of the UCI report, there would be no logical reason for him to fake a puncture considering he was going faster than someone from the front group, unless he would have been distanced before that, which doesn't match up with the timeline as explained in the next point.
3/ As a result the only possible way Remco should not get the same time as the peloton, is in case he were dropped by at least 4s from the peloton, before he punctured. But again, looking at his Strava file this seems highly unlikely. Furthermore, there is a fan video that shows him stopping roughly 50s after Roglic passes by, which would put him very close to Roglic at the moment he actually punctured, so impossible for him to have been dropped from the peloton.
4/ This also means it is highly unlikely Roglic attacked because he saw Evenepoel had a puncture.
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- Mar 29, 2012
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But you can't deny Remco was getting out of position between 7-3K to go?
And that's the argument many make about Remco not deserving to get the same time as they assume he just wasn't good enough to follow.
My take is that he already suffered from his slow flat, to a degree that he could still follow wheels but had to give up positions and barely held this until 3K to go. That makes the most sense, considering his post-race interview where he said he was 'afraid' of the run in to the climb, he found it 'slippery' while at the same time claiming he had great legs and was ready for contesting the stage.
His position before 3K to go was honestly nowhere near the front 30-40, and thus way too far to contest the stage, even with super legs.
Supposed he got good legs and still was being driven out of position, the most logical explanation is him having a slow flat. I don't buy his own explanation of being afraid and thus conceding positions this easily on a stage where he knew Roglic could try something.
And yes, I stick to my argument that Roglic didn't see Remco in position, and that this gave Roglic extra morale to attack and drive the front group until the line.
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- Jun 7, 2011
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His position is irrelevant unless it can be assumed he was trailing the peloton by more than 4s (because we know he did the climb 4s faster than a guy who rode away from the peloton). So for him not to deserve the same time as the peloton, he would have to have been dropped by 4s before the event. As stated in my analysis, this is impossible considering there is a fan video that had him pass by roughly 50s after Roglic, while the time he lost by slowing down as seen on Strava, was 49s.
- Mar 29, 2012
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I'm not refuting the fact Remco was still in the peloton.
I am saying that Remco was going backwards in that peloton, as shown in TV footage, and my best guess is that he already suffered from the flat, but wisely kept riding until 3K to go.
I am also saying that people shouldn't use that as an argument that Remco wasn't good enough to follow the group he given the same time of, exactly because he was already suffering a flat. Ofcourse Remco can't say this out loudly, even if he didn't do anything against the rules, but a good journalist would ask him why he was totally getting out of position between 7 and 3K to go.
- Jun 7, 2011
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To do the steepest part of the climb, 4s faster than a guy who was strong enough to follow Roglic, on a flat tire, that seems much, even for Evenepoel. So i don't buy that.
- Mar 29, 2012
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What part exactly are you talking about? Remco switched bikes on the steepest part.
- Jul 25, 2012
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It makes me sad that we've got to a point in cycling where it feels like conspiracy theories need to be addressed in such a methodical way.
- Jun 7, 2011
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No, he switched bikes after the steepest part. You can clearly see the profile getting less steep. You can see the point where the marker is placed, is the top of the steepest section of the climb. At this point he was 4s faster than Fred Wright. Note, faster doesn't mean ahead obviously.What part exactly are you talking about? Remco switched bikes on the steepest part.
- Jun 7, 2011
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He turns 27 in 2 months. Considering his age and the exceptional level he portrayed in some hard mountainstages, and he is at the end of his 2nd full season racing in Europe, i think he is very close to what he is capable of, and unlikely to improve drastically in regards of stamina and endurance. I think he is very much a Kuss type of rider, in the sense that he can reach a level close to or exceeding that of top GC climbers, but not consistently over 3 weeks, in order to go for GC himself. Him being more of a tempo climber than Kuss, actually makes him a better candidate with a better profile to work for a GC leader.
Obviously, this might not be at all what the rider himself wants. He can win mountainstages in all GT's with his qualities if he doesn't take the Kuss route, but i doubt he will turn into a GC threat. Bare in mind he had already been saving energy in stages prior to Pico Jano, so even if he did attack (early) from the GC group, he already had an advantage.
- Aug 3, 2015
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Seriously man, is this what CN has become. These arguments seem so lame
The guy punctured. Accusing him of faking a puncture is ridiculous, especially when it comes from the saltiest of salty Roglic-fans. Get over it, man.
The guy punctured. Accusing him of faking a puncture is ridiculous, especially when it comes from the saltiest of salty Roglic-fans. Get over it, man.
- Apr 30, 2011
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Agreed. He punctured outside 3 km to go, but gamed the rules to gain an advantage.
- May 25, 2010
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Which actually was very smart and mature of him. Can't blame him for that! (not saying that you do, but I'm just saying
)
- May 25, 2010
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Conspiracy theories and people not trusting anything they see is cursing our current era, that's for sure.
p.s. I realllly like Roglic, but these ridiculous accusations are ....ridiculous.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Except that his Strava very much leads away from this conclusion. Only if you think it is normal for him to do the steepest part of the climb 4s faster on a flat tire, than Fred Wright who was able to stay with Roglic. While not impossible, it seems far fetched as well as ultimately unnecessary for him to still go all out on a flat tire within the 3k. Why would he do that? On the other hand, there is nothing that suggests he would have punctured outside the 3k zone other than people wishing it to be true.Which actually was very smart and mature of him. Can't blame him for that! (not saying that you do, but I'm just saying
- May 25, 2010
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It's really sad Evenepoel lost this biggest rival in this race. He will miss that name on the podium. Wether that Roglic on top or him doesn't matter. Currently I'd say most likely Remco on top, but he would've had to fight for it and that would've made his win (if he wins) a lot more sweet in the end.
I'm really warming up to Remco this race. He's been so mature in the race and outside it as well. He's ofcourse free to be himself, but he is usually so focused on his on ego and that's not showing this Vuelta. I also believe he really feels for Roglic, but nothing he can do about it.
I'm really warming up to Remco this race. He's been so mature in the race and outside it as well. He's ofcourse free to be himself, but he is usually so focused on his on ego and that's not showing this Vuelta. I also believe he really feels for Roglic, but nothing he can do about it.
- May 25, 2010
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Except that there is is reason to suggest he would have punctured outside the 3k zone since he was at the front with 8-10km to go and with 5k to go he was near the end and further images didn't even show him.
Atleast that's according to a youtube clip I saw yesterday made by some Spanish dude, but that were screenshort with overheads kms to go in the topcentre of the screen so no reason to not trust those images.
- Jun 7, 2011
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It is very easy to lose positions in a final at high speed when everybody wants to be in front. There is nothing strange about that. Furthermore, in the same Strava section on the flat part, he rides the same pace as Wright, until on the climb Evenepoel accelerates and takes 4s on Wright. If he really was losing positions on the flat, it should also have been visible in his speed compared to Wright. While as i said, it is not impossible, the evidence to the contrary is simply a lot more convincing.
- May 25, 2010
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- Jun 7, 2011
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One is based on nothing but conjecture, one is based on a logical conclusion based on info from his Strava. Apparently the point of his bike change has been officially determined at 1.9k from the finish. Why would he need to ride 1.1k into the 3k zone, while doing the steepest section faster than a guy that was at that moment going after Roglic, while on a flat tire? To prove a point?In your opinion
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