Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[hfer07]

There was no flat tire or mechanical

Well played

 

[Volderke]

One is based on nothing but conjecture, one is based on a logical conclusion based on info from his Strava. Apparently the point of his bike change has been officially determined at 1.9k from the finish. Why would he need to ride 1.1k into the 3k zone, while doing the steepest section faster than a guy that was at that moment going after Roglic, while on a flat tire? To prove a point?

Based on your analysis of his strava (which I accept as sound evidence), it's still odd that he was nowhere to be found around 5-3K from the finish, and his position conflicts with his ambitions for the finish in his post-race interview, where he stated he wanted to contest for the win.

First of all: can we agree he was badly positioned, or was he that good in hiding somewhere near the front that both the moto and helicopter missed him?
losing positions also conflicts with what you wrote about his strava data compared to Fred Wright: if he was loosing 20-30 spots, he would have lost at least 5 seconds before the climb (which he didn't). So what d you think"?

If he was badly placed: was he thinking of gaining 30-40 places on the climb? Because that seemed only possible when nobody would attack (which didn't happen).

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Based on your analysis of his strava (which I accept as sound evidence), it's still odd that he was nowhere to be found around 5-3K from the finish, and his position conflicts with his ambitions for the finish in his post-race interview, where he stated he wanted to contest for the win.

First of all: can we agree he was badly positioned, or was he that good in hiding somewhere near the front that both the moto and helicopter missed him?
losing positions also conflicts with what you wrote about his strava data compared to Fred Wright: if he was loosing 20-30 spots, he would have lost at least 5 seconds before the climb (which he didn't). So what d you think"?

If he was badly placed: was he thinking of gaining 30-40 places on the climb? Because that seemed only possible when nobody would attack (which didn't happen).

We can't know how badly he was positioned, just that he was not well positioned. We only see the +/-30 riders. He could have been right behind those riders, he could have been 80 places behind. I just don't see a valid reason why he would do the extra effort of riding over 1km into the zone, and go deep on the steepest part of the climb, all on a flat tire.

 

[Oldermanish]

He turns 27 in 2 months. Considering his age and the exceptional level he portrayed in some hard mountainstages, and he is at the end of his 2nd full season racing in Europe, i think he is very close to what he is capable of, and unlikely to improve drastically in regards of stamina and endurance. I think he is very much a Kuss type of rider, in the sense that he can reach a level close to or exceeding that of top GC climbers, but not consistently over 3 weeks, in order to go for GC himself. Him being more of a tempo climber than Kuss, actually makes him a better candidate with a better profile to work for a GC leader.

Obviously, this might not be at all what the rider himself wants. He can win mountainstages in all GT's with his qualities if he doesn't take the Kuss route, but i doubt he will turn into a GC threat. Bare in mind he had already been saving energy in stages prior to Pico Jano, so even if he did attack (early) from the GC group, he already had an advantage.

Seems like he is on a stage-hunting expedition.

 

[Oldermanish]

We can't know how badly he was positioned, just that he was not well positioned. We only see the +/-30 riders. He could have been right behind those riders, he could have been 80 places behind. I just don't see a valid reason why he would do the extra effort of riding over 1km into the zone, and go deep on the steepest part of the climb, all on a flat tire.

And now he has a clear path to victory and can forget the Puncturegate discussion, we can hope.
He flicked Mas' pathetic accelerations away without any problems. Almost a depressing end to the GC stage without Roglic.

 

[JosefK]

And now he has a clear path to victory and can forget the Puncturegate discussion, we can hope.
He flicked Mas' pathetic accelerations away without any problems. Almost a depressing end to the GC stage without Roglic.

Yes, the GC battle for the top spot is deeply in the bag, with the top securely tied and double-knotted. Race for 2nd pretty well locked up. Final podium spot still up for grabs. A great win for Remco. Is there a scenario where he would not go to the TDF next year?

 

[Netserk]

Which actually was very smart and mature of him. Can't blame him for that! (not saying that you do, but I'm just saying )

Is that your view on all rules? A backdated TUE is smart and mature? Did you praise Froome too?

 

[Extinction]

And now he has a clear path to victory and can forget the Puncturegate discussion, we can hope.
He flicked Mas' pathetic accelerations away without any problems. Almost a depressing end to the GC stage without Roglic.

And this kinda conforms that Remco's temporary dip in form was owing to the crash.

 

[Oldermanish]

Yes, the GC battle for the top spot is deeply in the bag, with the top securely tied and double-knotted. Race for 2nd pretty well locked up. Final podium spot still up for grabs. A great win for Remco. Is there a scenario where he would not go to the TDF next year?

As we were reminded....the race isn't over. Remco's gotta stay clear of trouble. As for the TDF he should consider his planning as this Vuelta lacks the depth of competition of LeTour by a wide margin. It'd be a good initiative to get the team on board with the right support cast as part of his planning, too.

 

[Extinction]

Is that your view on all rules? A backdated TUE is smart and mature? Did you praise Froome too?

Apples to oranges, a backdated TUE is breaking the rules, whereas taking advantage of a flat tire at best is to avoid what in any case would have surely been an undeserved disaster. And do you think Roglic would like to have won because Remco punctured at 7k out? No more than Remco will be pleased that Rog is now out.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

As for the TDF he should consider his planning as this Vuelta lacks the depth of competition of LeTour by a wide margin.

Actually Vuelta in recent years hasn't lacked competition level. As for now, there are two Tour mutants that are super strong on all kinds of climbs even at the end of GTs but other than that there's no reason Remco can't fight for the Tour podium.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

And now he has a clear path to victory and can forget the Puncturegate discussion, we can hope.
He flicked Mas' pathetic accelerations away without any problems. Almost a depressing end to the GC stage without Roglic.

My mother could have flicked Mas' accelerations away!

 

[groogster]

Evenepoel showed today that unless something out of the ordinary happens has it in the bag. Today he controlled perfectly that last climb not letting anyone that he doesn’t wanted to ride away. Roglic’s unfortunate crash put this race behind contest which is sad because it seemed that Roglic was up to give a real fight to Evenepoel for the red.

 

[houtdffan]

Actually Vuelta in recent years hasn't lacked competition level. As for now, there are two Tour mutants that are super strong on all kinds of climbs even at the end of GTs but other than that there's no reason Remco can't fight for the Tour podium.

first week Remco would have dropped Pog and Vingegaard easily

 

[Krzysztof_O]

first week Remco would have dropped Pog and Vingegaard easily

What makes you think so? 6.5 w/kg for 25 minutes on low altitude in the 1st week? It's doable for those guys, especially if they have to just follow wheels.
OTOH staying with them during all gruelling stages of the Tour is not so simple (see time gaps from this or last year).

 

[Eddy Evenepoel]

My mother could have flicked Mas' accelerations away!

Still Remco was the only one to follow them and in the final kick Remco and Mas left the others behind.

 

[IndianCyclist]

That was Remco the Rhino toying with Mas the mouse while Roglic the rattlesnake retired hurt.

 

[fox]

Yes, the GC battle for the top spot is deeply in the bag, with the top securely tied and double-knotted. Race for 2nd pretty well locked up. Final podium spot still up for grabs. A great win for Remco. Is there a scenario where he would not go to the TDF next year?

Yes there is a scenario because he will be riding the Giro next year.

 

[red_flanders]

What makes you think so? 6.5 w/kg for 25 minutes on low altitude in the 1st week? It's doable for those guys, especially if they have to just follow wheels.
OTOH staying with them during all gruelling stages of the Tour is not so simple (see time gaps from this or last year).

Remco needs another level to compete at the Tour with those two, that much I'm sure of. Mostly because he doesn't have the finishing speed and will bleed seconds. I think they're all really even climbing, but Remco isn't going to drop Pog and Vingo like he did the riders in the Vuelta. And he's going to have to have a clean race, no crashes and bad-ish days.

If he holds on to win this, it will do wonders for his confidence, but it will also send the pressure and expectations from the Belgians (fans and press) into near apoplectic levels.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Remco needs another level to compete at the Tour with those two, that much I'm sure of. Mostly because he doesn't have the finishing speed and will bleed seconds. I think they're all really even climbing, but Remco isn't going to drop Pog and Vingo like he did the riders in the Vuelta. And he's going to have to have a clean race, no crashes and bad-ish days.

If he holds on to win this, it will do wonders for his confidence, but it will also send the pressure and expectations from the Belgians (fans and press) into near apoplectic levels.

Not so sure he couldn't drop Vingegaard on climbs like week 1. Long altitude climbs however, is a different story. But i think a pure 10 minute w/kg battle he could come out on top against Vingegaard. Pog on those climbs otoh is another thing. He would have the extra benefit of not having to control the race, and be the one that has to respond to every attack. I think he could save a lot of energy compared to this Vuelta. Nevertheless, i think he'd be more of an outsider than a true favorite. I'd expect him to get into the top 5 though if he can show the same form as the past 2 weeks. If he can improve his long altitude efforts (unfortunately we can't tell how good he might have been the past weekend without the crash) he might be able to tickle those guys.

 

[KZD]

Yes there is a scenario because he will be riding the Giro next year.

That seems to be Lefevere's wish but I am sure that there is not set in stone because a Vuelta win and a balanced Tour route could change things.

I think Remco could have been close to Pogačar this year given the Slovenian's bad day on Granon but I agree that he would likely be only the third favourite against him and Vingegård

 

[red_flanders]

Not so sure he couldn't drop Vingegaard on climbs like week 1. Long altitude climbs however, is a different story. But i think a pure 10 minute w/kg battle he could come out on top against Vingegaard. Pog on those climbs otoh is another thing. He would have the extra benefit of not having to control the race, and be the one that has to respond to every attack. I think he could save a lot of energy compared to this Vuelta. Nevertheless, i think he'd be more of an outsider than a true favorite. I'd expect him to get into the top 5 though if he can show the same form as the past 2 weeks. If he can improve his long altitude efforts (unfortunately we can't tell how good he might have been the past weekend without the crash) he might be able to tickle those guys.

Yes, there are nuances to the climbing skills and I would agree with your comments about week 1. And yes, he's got the watts and power to stay with or even pressure/drop those guys in theory.

My comments were meant for how they would all fare over the course of the Tour. To match those two in that race is a different animal. The teams will be stronger, all the contenders fully in peak form, the pressure much, much greater, and the pace and risk on every stage is far higher. That race is just another level in many ways, and Pog/Vingo are another level of competition.

It's the next step, and I'm excited to see it. I think he can definitely get there, and what an epic Tour it would be.

 

[Big Doopie]

While Remco at Tdf may not be able to match final accelerations, if you have a route that includes even 60-70 km of ITT, he gains some time there, particularly if in Vuelta stage 10 shape and if over rolling terrain so it is not so fast.

if he survives this third week he will have answered many/most questions. Only one remaining arguably would be dealing with a mountain stage with several 2000 m climbs.

 

[houtdffan]

If Remco does go to the giro next year, his schedule should be something like this

Scrap Murcia and Algarve

Races
TA
Catalyunia
Iztulia
Amstel
LBL
Giro
San Sebastien
Vuelta
Worlds?
Lombardia

 

[saunaking]

While Remco at Tdf may not be able to match final accelerations, if you have a route that includes even 60-70 km of ITT, he gains some time there, particularly if in Vuelta stage 10 shape and if over rolling terrain so it is not so fast.

if he survives this third week he will have answered many/most questions. Only one remaining arguably would be dealing with a mountain stage with several 2000 m climbs.

Remco would lose minutes on 2 proper tour climbing stages IMO
even something as 'easy' as alpe d'huez i think he would drop pretty hard against the top guys