Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

The Tour is way too hard after the Giro to make any sense for him this year. Won’t do the Tour.

Doubtless this is the case, however, going into it in 2024 with no experience of the race might lead to a lackluster result. When Pog unexpectedly won on his first attempt in 2020 still aged 21, he "shocked the world." However, that year the Tour was effectively in an interregnum period, with the Sky era over and a more open race that Jumbo-Visma could not yet take by the horns. Opportunity was thus there to pull off a heist (which is what effectively happened against Roglic). By contrast when Remco goes presumably next year, he will face not one, but two powerhouse teams with incredibly strong and experienced leaders. Teams and proven leaders that know how to win or take second at the Tour on more than one occasion. So not only Remco, but QS will have some serious catching up to do, with no experience of going for GC as the goal from the outset. This is why I think he and his team should go sooner than later to initiate that process. And then the pressure will be even greater in 2024. But, yes, having decided upon the Giro this season, which is actually better for me, makes a Tour debut all but impossible now.

 

[houtdffan]

That’s what they said about Alberto Contador after he crushed the 2011 Giro (“soft pedalled”). Contador started that Tour as overwhelming favourite. But the fatigue of the Giro was evident in his legs even though he showed flashes of his brilliance in July. We will see how Remco copes. First he needs to focus on the Giro and put the TdF out of his mind.

Contador also started his love making affair with the roads of France at the 2011 Tour.

He couldn't get off the top of the French roads. He kept crashing. Yes, 2011 was the Karpets bomb crash, but Contador had a special affinity for the roads of France. He always loved to lay on top of them

 

[Extinction]

That’s what they said about Alberto Contador after he crushed the 2011 Giro (“soft pedalled”). Contador started that Tour as overwhelming favourite. But the fatigue of the Giro was evident in his legs even though he showed flashes of his brilliance in July. We will see how Remco copes. First he needs to focus on the Giro and put the TdF out of his mind.

Well the 2011 Giro was a super tough parcours, with high mountains in the cold, etc. And then Alberto was still in a weird position with the Clen affair, which I think affected him at that Tour, during which in any case he fell hard early on and any brilliance he may have started with lost its luster from that point forward.

In any case, Remco will have no other thoughts than the Giro until Roma on the last day of the Corsa Rosa. And if Roglic shows up in top shape, he will be pushed to the limit in the fight for overall victory. The Giro, although the general strength of the field is less than the Tour and the pressure except for Italians is not as much as in France, nonetheless is always a harsh test. Often the weather is inclement, with colder or downright cold temps especially in the Appenines, Alpes and Dolomites. The absence of a couple of powerhouse squadre as at the Tour, means the Giro is less manageable and more unpredictable. Plus the third week is, as in this coming edition, usually stacked with multi-pass, high mountains stages. This year in week 3 there will be formitable ascents like Tre Cime di Lavaredo, so no doubt it's going to be a real grind, 3 TTs or not, to reach Roma in pink. But, as always, it will be thrilling to watch.

 

[LesDiablesRouges]

Why would ASO see a business opportunity in designing a Remco friendly course? Britain was an unconquered market with Wiggins. Not so Belgium.

Because Remco is the most marketable star in cycling.

 

[Oldermanish]

Doubtless this is the case, however, going into it in 2024 with no experience of the race might lead to a lackluster result. When Pog unexpectedly won on his first attempt in 2020 still aged 21, he "shocked the world." However, that year the Tour was effectively in an interregnum period, with the Sky era over and a more open race that Jumbo-Visma could not yet take by the horns. Opportunity was thus there to pull off a heist (which is what effectively happened against Roglic). By contrast when Remco goes presumably next year, he will face not one, but two powerhouse teams with incredibly strong and experienced leaders. Teams and proven leaders that know how to win or take second at the Tour on more than one occasion. So not only Remco, but QS will have some serious catching up to do, with no experience of going for GC as the goal from the outset. This is why I think he and his team should go sooner than later to initiate that process. And then the pressure will be even greater in 2024. But, yes, having decided upon the Giro this season, which is actually better for me, makes a Tour debut all but impossible now.

Totally agree. It will be about QS support as much as Remco and the Giro gives them a good chance to identify needed support. It can also be pointlessly too hard for fan satisfaction.

 

[Andre]

It appears we won't see a showdown...Tadej is backing out of UAE

 

[Extinction]

Totally agree. It will be about QS support as much as Remco and the Giro gives them a good chance to identify needed support. It can also be pointlessly too hard for fan satisfaction.

Right, but the thing is Pog and Vingo will have 3, 4 years of experience, with teams to back them up, to Remco's 0 next year. At any rate, I'll enjoy the Giro and then the Tour, because the rivalry between Pog and Vingo, after that of Remco and Primoz shall be fun to watch. After all, that's what drives fans, the big showdowns between those at the top of the sport, which makes cycling so dramatic throughout the year. Because every major race when the sport's big guns line up, is a Superbowl, a World Cup finals.

By "pointlessly too hard," I take it you mean the Giro-Tour double. Yea, it's like that, although it would be a shame if the current level, and perhaps the image of the sport, will prevent serious attempts to win both during a season in the future.

 

[Oldermanish]

Right, but the thing is Pog and Vingo will have 3, 4 years of experience, with teams to back them up, to Remco's 0 next year. At any rate, I'll enjoy the Giro and then the Tour, because the rivalry between Pog and Vingo, after that of Remco and Primoz shall be fun to watch. After all, that's what drives fans, the big showdowns between those at the top of the sport, which makes cycling so dramatic throughout the year. Because every major race when the sport's big guns line up, is a Superbowl, a World Cup finals.

By "pointlessly too hard," I take it you mean the Giro-Tour double. Yea, it's like that, although it would be a shame if the current level, and perhaps the image of the sport, will prevent serious attempts to win both during a season in the future.

Actually I meant that some of the Giro climbing stages are so hard as to only appeal to fans that want to be able to walk alongside their heroes instead of running. That will kill your legs for another GT if you're not absolutely timing your form correctly.

 

[Oldermanish]

It appears we won't see a showdown...Tadej is backing out of UAE

I'd say he's taking an upgrade from riding in a wind blown desert.

 

[Berniece]

Right, but the thing is Pog and Vingo will have 3, 4 years of experience, with teams to back them up, to Remco's 0 next year. At any rate, I'll enjoy the Giro and then the Tour, because the rivalry between Pog and Vingo, after that of Remco and Primoz shall be fun to watch. After all, that's what drives fans, the big showdowns between those at the top of the sport, which makes cycling so dramatic throughout the year. Because every major race when the sport's big guns line up, is a Superbowl, a World Cup finals.

By "pointlessly too hard," I take it you mean the Giro-Tour double. Yea, it's like that, although it would be a shame if the current level, and perhaps the image of the sport, will prevent serious attempts to win both during a season in the future.

I think it's unfair to say that Remco would have 0 experience next year. Sure he won't have ridden the Tour then, but he might have already won 2 GT's which is more important. And yes TDF is a different beast, but I don't think the racing itself will be different, it's more the environment around it. But that won't have an impact on him I think.

 

[Lequack]

 

[Extinction]

Actually I meant that some of the Giro climbing stages are so hard as to only appeal to fans that want to be able to walk alongside their heroes instead of running. That will kill your legs for another GT if you're not absolutely timing your form correctly.

Ah, but the Giro climbs are also the beauty of the race. Merckx won Blockhaus and Tre Cime di Lavaredo, saying the later was his greatest exploit in the mountains of his entire career. I thus don't think they only appeal to fans wanting to walk alongside their heroes, but rightly give the Giro it's mystique (who could forget a young Pantani charging up the Mortirolo like a raging bull in 94, dropping a certain Indurain by some 3 and a half minutes?).

 

[Extinction]

I think it's unfair to say that Remco would have 0 experience next year. Sure he won't have ridden the Tour then, but he might have already won 2 GT's which is more important. And yes TDF is a different beast, but I don't think the racing itself will be different, it's more the environment around it. But that won't have an impact on him I think.

Every pro says the Tour is the Tour, while winning the Vuelta and Giro doesn't compare to the French race. Now going up next year against seasoned guys like Pog and Vingo, I'm thinking Remco will need to gain experience before he is able to make a solid bid for overall victory. In other words, not only does the race come with more pressure, but his foes will be seasoned veterans with wins to their names, just as he will be learning the ropes on the biggest stage of the sport.

 

[Nick2413]

Every pro says the Tour is the Tour, while winning the Vuelta and Giro doesn't compare to the French race. Now going up next year against seasoned guys like Pog and Vingo, I'm thinking Remco will need to gain experience before he is able to make a solid bis for overall victory. In other words, not only does the race come with more pressure, but his foes will be seasoned veterans with wins to the, just as he will be learning the ropes on the biggest stage of the sport.

I don’t think being a seasoned veteran is as important these days as it used to be. Pog and Vingo were both Tour newbies when they won and took 2nd place in their first TdF respectively, as domestiques nonetheless. Then they dominated again the next years.

Remco has as much experience and better palmares as either of them did at the time, even if you exclude the Giro he didn’t have time to prepare for. I’m not even an outright Remco fan but the fact he is new to the Tour means nothing based on real world results of everyone around him in this era.

 

[saunaking]

I'd wait and see how the giro goes. If he leads by 6 minutes after the second TT and soft peddles the rest of the giro, then send him to the tour. If it is a stress filled giro down to the final MTT, then hell no

soft pedals the rest of the giro
ok then

 

[Extinction]

I don’t think being a seasoned veteran is as important these days as it used to be. Pog and Vingo were both Tour newbies when they won and took 2nd place in their first TdF respectively, as domestiques nonetheless. Then they dominated again the next years.

Remco has as much experience and better palmares as either of them did at the time, even if you exclude the Giro he didn’t have time to prepare for. I’m not even an outright Remco fan but the fact he is new to the Tour means nothing based on real world results of everyone around him in this era.

To the first bolded, precisely because it's those two, prodigous talents to be sure, who came good so young, we're talking about exceptions. And in theory they should be hitting their stride over the next several seasons. This means they will be even stronger than what allowed them to reach the top of the Tour so precosciously. Pog's first Tour victory was surprising, only because we didn't yet know him to be capable of such things so soon. Vingo's win was no less sensational, because he actually toppled Pog, even though he was a strong runner up the previous year. Thus not only will Remco be going into the race for the first time, but he will be facing two formitable foes, the likes of which the sport, as himself, has not scene in a several decades. Lemond in 84 was only third to Fignon and Hinault in his first Tour, over 10 minutes back from the maillot jaune. Sure, those were vastly different times, and Greg was not the team leader, but arguably as far as the Tour is concerned, Hinault and Fignon were to him, what Pog and Vingo will be to Evenepoel in his first Grand Bouclé. Experience I think in this case will thus matter. It's only a question of how much vs. how good Remco will be.

To the second bolded, I think you must also consider the teams. Pog and especially Vingo have proven squads, established and consolidated for protecting and setting up their leaders for overall Tour victory. This is not the case with QS, however. True, Lefebvre's team has another year to prepare, but it is working on a great transition from a classics powerhouse to a GT pilot. No matter what I don't think one year will be sufficient to equal, let alone rival, Jumbo-Visma in this regard or even Team UAE. So these factors, the quality of his rivals and the strength of their teams, will I think contribute to determining a harsh debut for the Belgian phenom. Although, again, how strong Remco will be also will doubtless play a significant role.

 

[Extinction]

I'd wait and see how the giro goes. If he leads by 6 minutes after the second TT and soft peddles the rest of the giro, then send him to the tour. If it is a stress filled giro down to the final MTT, then hell no

Although he won't be leasing Roglic by 6 minutes after the second TT.

 

[Bolder]

Every pro says the Tour is the Tour, while winning the Vuelta and Giro doesn't compare to the French race. Now going up next year against seasoned guys like Pog and Vingo, I'm thinking Remco will need to gain experience before he is able to make a solid bid for overall victory. In other words, not only does the race come with more pressure, but his foes will be seasoned veterans with wins to their names, just as he will be learning the ropes on the biggest stage of the sport.

Disagree -- Pog won the Tour in his second GT, Vingegaard was second after being a GT dom. I still maintain that Remco's 2022 season was one of the most remarkable in recent memory and he showed, especially in the WC, that he is giving away nothing to the world's best. His time is now.

 

[Red Rick]

5th year WT pro not ready to race the Tour de France?

Sounds ludicrous?

Probably because it is.

 

[Salvarani]

The question for me is if he will be able to cope with the fame and the pressure he has from his fans long-term. He is still at the beginning of his career. How long he can keep it up. Both in his professional and personal life. Had he been form another country than Belgium, he might have had it a little bit easier. It was no surprise he moved to Spain for many reasons.

 

[Extinction]

Disagree -- Pog won the Tour in his second GT, Vingegaard was second after being a GT dom. I still maintain that Remco's 2022 season was one of the most remarkable in recent memory and he showed, especially in the WC, that he is giving away nothing to the world's best. His time is now.

This has nothing to do with how remarkable Remco's season was, for the Tour is the biggest test in cycling, which he has not yet done. And then Pog winning the Tour after third in the Vuelta, doesn't mean his yellow in Paris was anything less exceptional, because the Tour is simply on another level. Can't see how you can disagree with these things. I don't mean to play down what Remco has done, but realism would suggest caution for what he can achieve in his first Gran Bouclé.

 

[houtdffan]

Although he won't be leasing Roglic by 6 minutes after the second TT.

he should not. Rog would have to be totally out of form.

More of an example if he can conserve energy after the first TT and have a stress free win, then the tour should be in play

 

[Nick2413]

To the first bolded, precisely because it's those two, prodigous talents to be sure, who came good so young, we're talking about exceptions. And in theory they should be hitting their stride over the next several seasons. This means they will be even stronger than what allowed them to reach the top of the Tour so precosciously. Pog's first Tour victory was surprising, only because we didn't yet know him to be capable of such things so soon. Vingo's win was no less sensational, because he actually toppled Pog, even though he was a strong runner up the previous year. Thus not only will Remco be going into the race for the first time, but he will be facing two formitable foes, the likes of which the sport, as himself, has not scene in a several decades. Lemond in 84 was only third to Fignon and Hinault in his first Tour, over 10 minutes back from the maillot jaune. Sure, those were vastly different times, and Greg was not the team leader, but arguably as far as the Tour is concerned, Hinault and Fignon were to him, what Pog and Vingo will be to Evenepoel in his first Grand Bouclé. Experience I think in this case will thus matter. It's only a question of how much vs. how good Remco will be.

To the second bolded, I think you must also consider the teams. Pog and especially Vingo have proven squads, established and consolidated for protecting and setting up their leaders for overall Tour victory. This is not the case with QS, however. True, Lefebvre's team has another year to prepare, but it is working on a great transition from a classics powerhouse to a GT pilot. No matter what I don't think one year will be sufficient to equal, let alone rival, Jumbo-Visma in this regard or even Team UAE. So these factors, the quality of his rivals and the strength of their teams, will I think contribute to determining a harsh debut for the Belgian phenom. Although, again, how strong Remco will be also will doubtless play a significant role.

Remco is just as much of a generational talent as the other 2 and immediately showed his potential at an early age when he entered the sport. That said I still haven’t seen enough climbing prowess to be on par with those 2 so fair enough.

UAE a good team in 2020? Lol. And 2021-2022? Kind of. Quickstep is exceptionally bad for GCs currently so I’ll give you that.

 

[frisenfruitig]

I agree about Pogacar being a prodigious talent who was very good at an early age but Vingegaard? Didn't really show anything before he was, what, 24 or 25? That's not old or anything but compared to Pogacar or Evenepoel he didn't really show much at an early age that made you think "that is a generational talent who is going to win everything". His development kinda reminds me of Froome.

 

[red_flanders]

he should not. Rog would have to be totally out of form.

More of an example if he can conserve energy after the first TT and have a stress free win, then the tour should be in play

I really can't see any scenario where Evenepoel coasts to a GT win at this point. The Giro is going to be hard. He's not doing the Tour unless he crashes out before or during the Giro.