Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Pogacar just raced 4 days in the last month, how can he be tired?!

I think people mean his peak form may be waning.

 

[Andy schleck]

I think people mean his peak form may be waning.

Yeah, it could happens.

 

[Pirazziattacks]

I don't think Pogacar can drop Remco. Remco should be getting close to top form in order to be a contender for the Giro and Pogacar is an alien, but even aliens can get tired. And even if Pogi can drop Remco, I believe he can come back. Even in the Amstel he had difficulties with Healy at some point. I am curious how a sprint between the 2 of them will be.

I didn't think it was possible for anyone to drop an in form VDP on cobbled climbs, but Pogacar did it. Dropping Remco wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary in comparison.

 

[Gigs_98]

I do think that racing so hard yesterday plus also racing on Wednesday might be a disadvantage for Pogacar against Remco. That being said, looking at how dominant Pogacar was yesterday, I simply cannot see Remco dropping him by sheer force on Sunday, and in a sprint I definitely favor Pogacar. Remco will probably have to try to sneak away again, but Pogacar has to be my favorite.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

So Alien vs Predator on Sunday. Hopefully both will be in-form!

 

[Salvarani]

It will be a great fight between the two of them, it could go either way. Really looking forward towards the race.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I didn't think it was possible for anyone to drop an in form VDP on cobbled climbs, but Pogacar did it. Dropping Remco wouldn't be anything out of the ordinary in comparison.

The gapping itself maybe not. Keeping him distanced however, certainly would.

 

[Gigs_98]

The gapping itself maybe not. Keeping him distanced however, certainly would.

I mean if they are both on their own with 50km to go maybe. But it's not like there is that much tarmac flat road left for Remco to catch Pog after RaF. If he gets dropped there it's game over.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I mean if they are both on their own with 50km to go maybe. But it's not like there is that much tarmac flat road left for Remco to catch Pog after RaF. If he gets dropped there it's game over.

Ah, i wasn't aware they moved the line within 2k from the top of RaF. Sorry.

It will depend on "how dropped" he would be. If there is a 50 meter gap after RaF... or if we are talking about 30s.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

As for distancing Evenepoel it depends on circumstances. If Pog drops Evenepoel slightly only because he's more explosive then the latter has a very good chance to catch Pog. If it's a war of attrition and Pog drops Remco because he starts to face then there will probably be no way back.

 

[Gigs_98]

Ah, i wasn't aware they moved the line within 2k from the top of RaF. Sorry.

It will depend on "how dropped" he would be. If there is a 50 meter gap after RaF... or if we are talking about 30s.

You realize Pogacar is a world class TTer right? The top of RaF is 13 km from the finish. But if you get dropped there you will lose even more time on the uphill drag afterwards ending with 10 km to go. Then like half of those 10 km are downhill where Evenepoels TT ability is of no use either.

Seriously, I feel like saying it's game over for Evenepoel if he can't follow on RaF should be a completely uncontroversial opinion. If you are weaker on the climb you don't just easily close a gap against Pogacar on like 5 km of flat roads.

 

[Red Rick]

You realize Pogacar is a world class TTer right? The top of RaF is 13 km from the finish. But if you get dropped there you will lose even more time on the uphill drag afterwards ending with 10 km to go. Then like half of those 10 km are downhill where Evenepoels TT ability is of no use either.

Seriously, I feel like saying it's game over for Evenepoel if he can't follow on RaF should be a completely uncontroversial opinion. If you are weaker on the climb you don't just easily close a gap against Pogacar on like 5 km of flat roads.

Depends on how badly he gets dropped. Evenepoel isn't like Pidcock where once you break him you can write is eulogy. He's rather the #1 rider you back to claw back a 5s gap at the end of the steep part.

I don't think you can state it as categorically as you do while also saying that should be completely uncontroversial.

 

[hayneplane]

First 150km look very dull and unpromising for hard racing and/or formation of a dangerous breakaway as occurred in both cobbled monuments.

That’s the bad news, however the good news is that both the two red hot favourites for the race favour as hard a race as they can get and a long final so we should get the big moves with well over 50km to go on the Rosier.

I expect decent cooperation between Soudal Quickstep and UAE with both putting 2 riders up to ride the front for the early stages.

For the 98% of the field that need to anticipate and get ahead like the Pedersen group in Flanders they should be in good position to initiate on the Wanne or Stockeu unless they are happy to conserve energy and hope to fight for 3rd layer

 

[Red Rick]

First 150km look very dull and unpromising for hard racing and/or formation of a dangerous breakaway as occurred in both cobbled monuments.

That’s the bad news, however the good news is that both the two red hot favourites for the race favour as hard a race as they can get and a long final so we should get the big moves with well over 50km to go on the Rosier.

I expect decent cooperation between Soudal Quickstep and UAE with both putting 2 riders up to ride the front for the early stages.

For the 98% of the field that need to anticipate and get ahead like the Pedersen group in Flanders they should be in good position to initiate on the Wanne or Stockeu unless they are happy to conserve energy and hope to fight for 3rd layer

In Liege people don't make early moves to anticipate they just race for the scraps left behind.

 

[Riek s]

You realize Pogacar is a world class TTer right? The top of RaF is 13 km from the finish. But if you get dropped there you will lose even more time on the uphill drag afterwards ending with 10 km to go. Then like half of those 10 km are downhill where Evenepoels TT ability is of no use either.

Seriously, I feel like saying it's game over for Evenepoel if he can't follow on RaF should be a completely uncontroversial opinion. If you are weaker on the climb you don't just easily close a gap against Pogacar on like 5 km of flat roads.

The difference between them on the flat is position:

The problem about being 'stronger' on the climb isn't dictated by arriving at the top earlier. That alone doesn't mean you are stronger, that could just be to being more explosive. (situation dependend)
That is what the whole thing is before, because the assumption is that if Remco drops, it is because of a sprint by pog and not because of a continious pace of Pog. The difference in that is one pace can be maintained, the other can't.

So what you are saying is of course true if rider B drops, and his speed after A acceleration is still lower. (in that case B is weaker and typically wont come back unless A blows). However the assumption atm is that B will keep pace/(hopefylly be faster) than A after A acceleration. in which case A isn't actually stronger, he just has an advantage in something and making use of it. (e.g for the same reason many speculate that if they both ride to the finish, pog has a bigger chance of winning). (don't want to rule out that Remco can't be dropped on strength as well though, just that there can be other possibilities than being weaker)

Of course that is all up for sunday and how Remco feels after coming from altitude into a cold wet climate and how Pog recovers from his effort on sunday and wednesday.

(also Pog and Remco have shown not to be the greatest descenders of the pack... having both in a chase in a descend and the risk they are willing to take is also something to take into account )

 

[Netserk]

Look at the competition Pog was up against. Pidcock was the last to hold on and we're talking about a guy who hasn't had an ideal spring.

The guy who won Strade with a solo as long as Pogi's, and who won on Malhão. Who nearly beat Van Aert in Amstel previously.

 

[Salmon Spread]

People overstate TT ability, in my opinion, especially several commentators harp on about it as frequently. A TT is usually an effort of less than an hour, more likely 30 minutes, on a TT bike, with fresh legs. Totally different to a sustained effort after 250km of racing.

Evenepoels position on a road bike is so good though, I think it's his best talent, at least he looks and rides on the flat so much better than everyone else. But Pogacar, if he attacks on a climb, he makes it stick - when does he ever blow up (genuine question, as I don't follow cycling like I used to)? Hoping for a great battle, just a shame that Pogacar is perhaps not as fresh/at a peak, like Evenepoel likely will be

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You realize Pogacar is a world class TTer right? The top of RaF is 13 km from the finish. But if you get dropped there you will lose even more time on the uphill drag afterwards ending with 10 km to go. Then like half of those 10 km are downhill where Evenepoels TT ability is of no use either.

Seriously, I feel like saying it's game over for Evenepoel if he can't follow on RaF should be a completely uncontroversial opinion. If you are weaker on the climb you don't just easily close a gap against Pogacar on like 5 km of flat roads.

If Pogacar is a worldclass TT'er, then what is Evenepoel? A universe class TT'er?

Strange some people still have a hard time understanding Evenepoel's strengths after all these years. When Pogacar goes solo, he gaps everyone with a fierce attack on a climb. After that, he holds the gap on the flat. If there is another climb, he will likely take additional time there. With Evenepoel, it's usually the other way around. He attacks AFTER the climb, or near the top of the climb, his initial gap is much smaller, and then he starts motoring away on the flat.

Look at Pogacar dropping Healy but needing a car to widen the gap to 38s. Same in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, where he attacks Van der Poel, and then on the flat merely holds the gap but doesn't extend it. Same in Strade, where he immediately gets a huge gap with his attack, but only finishes 37s ahead of Valverde.

Evenepoel attacked at the top of the climb in Denmark, and then starts making the gap. Same story in Valencia. Same story in Liège. Same story (reversed) in his first San Sebastian win (creates the gap on the flat, holds it on the climb), he creates the gap at the WCC on a false flat section and you can see the pain on the face of Lutsenko just trying to stay in his wheel on the flat.

Your opinion would be completely uncontroversial for people who still think when Evenepoel rides away, it's because "they let him".

People overstate TT ability, in my opinion, especially several commentators harp on about it as frequently. A TT is usually an effort of less than an hour, more likely 30 minutes, on a TT bike, with fresh legs. Totally different to a sustained effort after 250km of racing.

Evenepoels position on a road bike is so good though, I think it's his best talent, at least he looks and rides on the flat so much better than everyone else. But Pogacar, if he attacks on a climb, he makes it stick - when does he ever blow up (genuine question, as I don't follow cycling like I used to)? Hoping for a great battle, just a shame that Pogacar is perhaps not as fresh/at a peak, like Evenepoel likely will be

Pogacar makes it stick. But he has never had to make it stick vs Evenepoel. Looking at what happened in Amstel, is actually proof of how relative that is, and that it is definitely possible for a superior rouleur to close the gap on the flat.

 

[Netserk]

Same in Ronde Van Vlaanderen, where he attacks Van der Poel, and then on the flat merely holds the gap but doesn't extend it.

It's only steady while Van der Poel is motopaced, after Paterberg on the flat it goes from 15'' to 30''.

 

[Gigs_98]

The difference between them on the flat is position:

The problem about being 'stronger' on the climb isn't dictated by arriving at the top earlier. That alone doesn't mean you are stronger, that could just be to being more explosive. (situation dependend)
That is what the whole thing is before, because the assumption is that if Remco drops, it is because of a sprint by pog and not because of a continious pace of Pog. The difference in that is one pace can be maintained, the other can't.

So what you are saying is of course true if rider B drops, and his speed after A acceleration is still lower. (in that case B is weaker and typically wont come back unless A blows). However the assumption atm is that B will keep pace/(hopefylly be faster) than A after A acceleration. in which case A isn't actually stronger, he just has an advantage in something and making use of it. (e.g for the same reason many speculate that if they both ride to the finish, pog has a bigger chance of winning). (don't want to rule out that Remco can't be dropped on strength as well though, just that there can be other possibilities than being weaker)

Of course that is all up for sunday and how Remco feels after coming from altitude into a cold wet climate and how Pog recovers from his effort on sunday and wednesday.

(also Pog and Remco have shown not to be the greatest descenders of the pack... having both in a chase in a descend and the risk they are willing to take is also something to take into account )

I guess we can go into the definition of "dropped" again, but I don't consider a rider who is momentarily behind because he just didn't respond to an acceleration dropped. What I meant was Pogacar genuinely being stronger on the climb.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

It's only steady while Van der Poel is motopaced, after Paterberg on the flat it goes from 15'' to 30''.

Still that is only 1s per km and likely more due to attrition than outright being the better rouleur.

 

[Berniece]

The guy who won Strade with a solo as long as Pogi's, and who won on Malhão. Who nearly beat Van Aert in Amstel previously.

Pidcock had an injury and isn’t in the same form as he was back then.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I guess we can go into the definition of "dropped" again, but I don't consider a rider who is momentarily behind because he just didn't respond to an acceleration dropped. What I meant was Pogacar genuinely being stronger on the climb.

Then i wonder what exactly do you consider dropped, or rather how much time do you think Evenepoel could realistically lose on a short climb like RaF? Two minutes? Chances are if Pogacar can drop Evenepoel, that it will be by less than 20 seconds. And if Pogacar is in good shape, and he attacks, it is nearly certain that he will drop Evenepoel, simply because he is still better at those 5 minute peak efforts. But holding on to 20s vs Evenepoel after RaF would certainly not be a done deal. Because just as Pogacar is naturally better at those short efforts, Evenepoel is naturally a better rouleur.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

Here‘s how I see it:
Debating if Evenepoel can get back after being dropped is irrelevant because while Evenepoel‘s sprint has improved I think their matchup would be a more lopsided variation on the Van der Poel-Van Aert sprints where Pogačar should win any tactical sprint from a small group against Evenepoel on acceleration.
It‘s like people saying that Healy could have gotten back, while that has no influence whatsoever on the outcome. All Pogačar has to do is staying on Evenepoel‘s wheel, which we all know is hard enough.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Here‘s how I see it:
Debating if Evenepoel can get back after being dropped is irrelevant because while Evenepoel‘s sprint has improved I think their matchup would be a more lopsided variation on the Van der Poel-Van Aert sprints where Pogačar should win any tactical sprint from a small group against Evenepoel on acceleration.
It‘s like people saying that Healy could have gotten back, while that has no influence whatsoever on the outcome. All Pogačar has to do is staying on Evenepoel‘s wheel, which we all know is hard enough.

This would be the most likely scenario. Unless Pogacar is stupid enough not to sit up in time, and tries to hold Evenepoel off, blowing himself up more than Evenepoel in the chase. But i don't think Pogacar is that dumb, so the most likely scenario would indeed be that if Evenepoel could close the gap, it would simply be delaying the inevitable. I don't think anybody is claiming the opposite. But that was not the point of the discussion.