Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[hayneplane]

In Liege people don't make early moves to anticipate they just race for the scraps left behind.

Traditionally yes which it was throughout the 2010s when it was mostly dull. I have high hopes though that the new breed of phenoms just don’t do dull and waiting until the last obstacle bar MSR.

 

[Extinction]

The guy who won Strade with a solo as long as Pogi's, and who won on Malhão. Who nearly beat Van Aert in Amstel previously.

What, pray tell, does this have anything to do with here and now? The guy crashed hard in Tirreno and has been chasing form ever since!

 

[Gigs_98]

Then i wonder what exactly do you consider dropped, or rather how much time do you think Evenepoel could realistically lose on a short climb like RaF? Two minutes? Chances are if Pogacar can drop Evenepoel, that it will be by less than 20 seconds. And if Pogacar is in good shape, and he attacks, it is nearly certain that he will drop Evenepoel, simply because he is still better at those 5 minute peak efforts. But holding on to 20s vs Evenepoel after RaF would certainly not be a done deal. Because just as Pogacar is naturally better at those short efforts, Evenepoel is naturally a better rouleur.

My friend, If Pogacar has 20 seconds on RaF, it's a done deal.

 

[Oldermanish]

This would be the most likely scenario. Unless Pogacar is stupid enough not to sit up in time, and tries to hold Evenepoel off, blowing himself up more than Evenepoel in the chase. But i don't think Pogacar is that dumb, so the most likely scenario would indeed be that if Evenepoel could close the gap, it would simply be delaying the inevitable. I don't think anybody is claiming the opposite. But that was not the point of the discussion.

Last year's Tour most likely taught Pogacar not to go with everything or try to maintain peak output unless he has a serious gap. Roglic showed the benefit of that strategy earlier this year when it was arguable if he was actually weaker than Remco. The lesson learned became more of not showing exactly how hard you can go until you are dead certain it'll work for all three riders. That's not easy to figure out during a race, is it?

 

[johnymax]

What if Remco has 20s on Pogačar after RaF, is it a done deal?
I'm imagining this forum if Remco wins on Sunday, haha...it's gonna be fun.
I hope for a Gaudu or Woods win tbh

 

[Andy schleck]

What if Remco has 20s on Pogačar after RaF, is it a done deal?
I'm imagining this forum if Remco wins on Sunday, haha...it's gonna be fun.
I hope for a Gaudu or Woods win tbh

If remco wins on sunday, they will say that remco is the best in the world, better than pogacar.

 

[johnymax]

If remco wins on sunday, they will say that remco is the best in the world, better than pogacar.

I know, but it will actually make some sense this time. They are both targeting L-B-L and are both in good shape. So the winner should be rewarded with some kind of a strong claim (if it makes sense). For now the strongest argument seems to be..."bbbut, bbbut in San Sebastian Remco was stronger" which always makes me laugh when I hear it to be honest.

The good thing is there is so much talent in the pro peloton that those guys continuously have to prove it race after race. If Remco wins Liege he'll still need to confirm it with a Giro win. If he doesn't win the Giro he shouldn't and can't be seen as the best in the World. Same with Pogi, although he has proved a lot more so far. But if he loses Liege and the Tour again, he finds himself in a situation where he needs to prove he can win a GT again (we know he is capable of lol). But what if in the meantime Vingegaard wins Dauphine, Tour and Lombardia...is then he the best in the world? What if Roglič wins Giro, Vuelta and Lombardia, is he then the best? The answer is yes.

 

[how yes no?]

Evenepoel is naturally a better rouleur.

I think the relevant question is whether he is a better rouler in the final part of Liege, not if he is a naturally better rouleur.
Because it's hard to argue that Pogačar is naturally a better rouleur than MvdP (and the whole Flanders competition) that won arguably the rouleur race of the season (PR) just a week after losing to Pogačar in the rouleur-final part of Flanders.
That means that Pogačar was a better rouleur because of how tired MvdP was compared to him.
MvdP got more tired than Pogačar because of the climbs, not because of the flat.
For Evenepoel to be better in the final part of Liege, that would mean, that his rouler ability would have to take a considerably lesser hit compared to Pogačars than MvdPs did in Flanders. And Pogačars rouleur ability in Liege should improve comparing to the usual rouleurs (more climbs).
So for that to work, you'd expect to be basicly as good on the climbs as Pogačar (and unless he goes pure tempo chase mode) that also includes covering Pogačars potential accelerations with his own (and he failed at that game vs Roglič once this season (by being tempted into an all-out too soon (because he didn't want to play that game, because he believed it was not in his favour) ).
It's not impossible, but I still think that is a very big ask.

 

[Extinction]

I think the relevant question is whether he is a better rouler in the final part of Liege, not if he is a naturally better rouleur.
Because it's hard to argue that Pogačar is naturally a better rouleur than MvdP (and the whole Flanders competition) that won arguably the rouleur race of the season (PR) just a week after losing to Pogačar in the rouleur-final part of Flanders.
That means that Pogačar was a better rouleur because of how tired MvdP was compared to him.
MvdP got more tired than Pogačar because of the climbs, not because of the flat.
For Evenepoel to be better in the final part of Liege, that would mean, that his rouler ability would have to take a considerably lesser hit compared to Pogačars than MvdPs did in Flanders. And Pogačars rouleur ability in Liege should improve comparing to the usual rouleurs (more climbs).
So for that to work, you'd expect to be basicly as good on the climbs as Pogačar (and unless he goes pure tempo chase mode) that also includes covering Pogačars potential accelerations with his own (and he failed at that game vs Roglič once this season (by being tempted into an all-out too soon (because he didn't want to play that game, because he believed it was not in his favour) ).
It's not impossible, but I still think that is a very big ask.

You are making too many assumptions here. Comparing Evenepoel to MVDP is a wild stretch, as first of all Remco is GT material and secondly in this case Liege is completely different than Flanders. And you assume Remco will need to be chasing Tadej, when it could be the opposite. I don't have a magic crystal ball to see what will happen on Sunday, however, I very much doubt Pogacar just rides away from Remco the way he did to Pidcock or for that matter MVDP in Flanders. After all in theory, since the Giro is just around the corner and it's a full year of development later, it could be the best Evenepoel we've ever seen. If this is the case, I don't think he'll be chasing anyone.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

I really hope someone else wins now, just to put all these debates to bed. The winner will come from a team with red on their jersey.

 

[peterfin]

Remco wants to win in his rainbow colors and he wants some time to celebrate as well. He has to drop Pogacar. His incredible mental force will bend spacetime and ensure that he ends up in a universe where this is the case. So it's basically a done deal! There is no need to discuss hypothetical outcomes. It's clear. He obviously doesn't want to wait for a win in his WCC jersey at the Giro because he may need to wear another one (again). Too much frustration! He wants to avoid that. So expect a famous Remco solo!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I think the relevant question is whether he is a better rouler in the final part of Liege, not if he is a naturally better rouleur.
Because it's hard to argue that Pogačar is naturally a better rouleur than MvdP (and the whole Flanders competition) that won arguably the rouleur race of the season (PR) just a week after losing to Pogačar in the rouleur-final part of Flanders.
That means that Pogačar was a better rouleur because of how tired MvdP was compared to him.
MvdP got more tired than Pogačar because of the climbs, not because of the flat.
For Evenepoel to be better in the final part of Liege, that would mean, that his rouler ability would have to take a considerably lesser hit compared to Pogačars than MvdPs did in Flanders. And Pogačars rouleur ability in Liege should improve comparing to the usual rouleurs (more climbs).
So for that to work, you'd expect to be basicly as good on the climbs as Pogačar (and unless he goes pure tempo chase mode) that also includes covering Pogačars potential accelerations with his own (and he failed at that game vs Roglič once this season (by being tempted into an all-out too soon (because he didn't want to play that game, because he believed it was not in his favour) ).
It's not impossible, but I still think that is a very big ask.

I have explained this half a dozen times by now, including in the post you quoted.

No, Evenepoel not following Pogacar on RaF does not have to mean he is more tired per se, because we know Pogacar is simply better at these short accelerations. If both would do that climb fresh at 100%, Pogacar would likely do it faster.

In another post i already suggested Pogacar taking 1s/km out of Van der Poel in the final could be down to attrition. Not being a better rouleur.

The peloton in Tour of Germany had to be motopaced for them to catch 19 year old Evenepoel solo in the last kilometers, who had attacked 100k from the finish. On flat roads. I advise you and others to look at the final 60k of the WCC again, where he had been attacking numerous times to finally ride off on a false flat section. Also look at some of the efforts he did as leadout in the sprint train for Jakobsen, Alaphilippe... Where he tore the peloton apart in the final kms of a race. Where he ridiculed Ganna who was trying to start a sprint train alongside him. He is definitely capable of taking 20s back in 15km if he doesn't blow himself up on the climb. I think he wouldn't even need 15k to be honest.

 

[Bolder]

Seriously, Logic is right. Just look at the WCRR for an example of a less-than-100% Pogacar not able to follow Remco. I won't pretend that Pog was there in perfect shape and entirely motivated, but he's been racing hard in the past month while Remco has been optimizing his training. So I could absolutely see a situation where Remco drops (in the accepted definition of "drop," as in "ain't never comin' back) Pog on the Roche.

To me, though, if Pog wins Sunday it will be the cherry on the icing; he's already had a monster season and it's just April. If he wants to win I think he may have to race conservatively against Remco. If he can just follow Remco he'll whip him in a sprint. Remco can win if Pog (as I think, maybe?) is slightly past his peak.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Seriously, Logic is right. Just look at the WCRR for an example of a less-than-100% Pogacar not able to follow Remco. I won't pretend that Pog was there in perfect shape and entirely motivated, but he's been racing hard in the past month while Remco has been optimizing his training. So I could absolutely see a situation where Remco drops (in the accepted definition of "drop," as in "ain't never comin' back) Pog on the Roche.

To me, though, if Pog wins Sunday it will be the cherry on the icing; he's already had a monster season and it's just April. If he wants to win I think he may have to race conservatively against Remco. If he can just follow Remco he'll whip him in a sprint. Remco can win if Pog (as I think, maybe?) is slightly past his peak.

Thanks for the vote of confidence, but that wasn't what i was arguing, lol. My only point was that if Pog drops Remco on Roche, that Remco could still close the gap in the remaining 15k to the line. Where Pog would then likely win the sprint.

 

[how yes no?]

You misunderstood me Logic-...

If Tadej drops Remco on the Roche, for Remco to catch up in the remaining 15k, he not only has to be a naturally better rouleur (I dont argue that he is not) but also have less effects of attrition, because with enough attrition even a better rouleur (MvdP) can lose. And attrition is a relevant factor at the end of a race with lots of climbing and over 250km of length.

I argue that compared to the people who get more affected by attrition on the climbs than Tadej does (99+% of rouleurs), Tadej will be in an even better spot than he was at Flanders, because there are more climbs here (that work in his favour attrition wise). And at Flanders there were enough climbs that no rouleur was able to match Tadej at the end (because of attrition), and there were all the worlds best rouleurs (but Remco) there.

So for Remco to win the rouleur game, he has to be close to equal in the attrition game. To be close to equal in the attrition game, he has to handle the climbing meters (with regards to the attrition, not the lack of the kick Tadej has (but that can play a part in attrition games)) close to equally as good as Tadej.

Which is also how I concluded my post that you quoted.

So for that to work, you'd expect to be basicly as good on the climbs as Pogačar (and unless he goes pure tempo chase mode) that also includes covering Pogačars potential accelerations with his own (and he failed at that game vs Roglič once this season (by being tempted into an all-out too soon (because he didn't want to play that game, because he believed it was not in his favour) ).

In other words:
Remco must not pay more (in terms of energy for the day) on the climbs that Tadej does.

Not saying it's impossible, but it's a big ask.

 

[DoYouEvenRideBruh]

I really hope someone else wins now, just to put all these debates to bed. The winner will come from a team with red on their jersey.

 

[how yes no?]

You are making too many assumptions here. Comparing Evenepoel to MVDP is a wild stretch, as first of all Remco is GT material and secondly in this case Liege is completely different than Flanders. And you assume Remco will need to be chasing Tadej, when it could be the opposite. I don't have a magic crystal ball to see what will happen on Sunday, however, I very much doubt Pogacar just rides away from Remco the way he did to Pidcock or for that matter MVDP in Flanders. After all in theory, since the Giro is just around the corner and it's a full year of development later, it could be the best Evenepoel we've ever seen. If this is the case, I don't think he'll be chasing anyone.

I am speculating yes, that's all I can work with at the moment. But I think rouleurs are more suited to Flanders than Tadej and Tadej being more suited for the Liege than Flanders. So if Remco is to drop Tadej, he'd have to be more better in the flat part than rouleurs at flanders were (and they were no GT guys, but big powerhouse engines made for more flat terrain), or alternatively drop him on the climbs. It's not impossible, but he would be the first one this year, and he has raced vs arguably the worlds best climber (Jonas) in PN.

In normal circumstances, I don't expect Remco to drop Tadej, sprint is more likely and as Logic-is-your-friend would say, Tadej has shown more ability to drop Remco even if Remco will potential catch up.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You misunderstood me Logic-...

If Tadej drops Remco on the Roche, for Remco to catch up in the remaining 15k, he not only has to be a naturally better rouleur (I dont argue that he is not) but also have less effects of attrition, because with enough attrition even a better rouleur (MvdP) can lose. And attrition is a relevant factor at the end of a race with lots of climbing and over 250km of length.

I argue that compared to the people who get more affected by attrition on the climbs than Tadej does (99+% of rouleurs), Tadej will be in an even better spot than he was at Flanders, because there are more climbs here (that work in his favour attrition wise). And at Flanders there were enough climbs that no rouleur was able to match Tadej at the end (because of attrition), and there were all the worlds best rouleurs (but Remco) there.

So for Remco to win the rouleur game, he has to be close to equal in the attrition game. To be close to equal in the attrition game, he has to handle the climbing meters (with regards to the attrition, not the lack of the kick Tadej has (but that can play a part in attrition games)) close to equally as good as Tadej.

Which is also how I concluded my post that you quoted.


In other words:
Remco must not pay more (in terms of energy for the day) on the climbs that Tadej does.

Not saying it's impossible, but it's a big ask.

First of all, why do you assume Van der Poel to be a superior rouleur than Pogacar? I do not think so, i think they are quite similar in that regard. But i think it is clear Evenepoel is a level above both.
As i explained, lets say both Evenepoel and Pogacar go all out on Roche Aux Faucons, they both go equally "deep" then Pogacar would drop Evenepoel (drafting not accounted for) and Pogacar would do the climb quicker. Assuming attrition for Evenepoel would be bigger is not based on anything. You can either assume Evenepoel goes deeper and is able to follow (then there is no need to close a gap) or you can assume Evenepoel does not go deeper but gets dropped instead (then he has to rely on his rouleur capabilities). Or you can assume Evenepoel is dumb and burns himself trying to follow Pogacar but gets dropped anyway, in which scenario i would agree he would no longer be able to close the gap.

 

[Extinction]

I am speculating yes, that's all I can work with at the moment. But I think rouleurs are more suited to Flanders than Tadej and Tadej being more suited for the Liege than Flanders. So if Remco is to drop Tadej, he'd have to be more better in the flat part than rouleurs at flanders were (and they were no GT guys, but big powerhouse engines made for more flat terrain), or alternatively drop him on the climbs. It's not impossible, but he would be the first one this year, and he has raced vs arguably the worlds best climber (Jonas) in PN.

In normal circumstances, I don't expect Remco to drop Tadej, sprint is more likely and as Logic-is-your-friend would say, Tadej has shown more ability to drop Remco even if Remco will potential catch up.

Vingegaard was at PN for training. The Remco Tadej will face at Liege won't be the Remco Pog dropped in post-trauma Lombardia or miss-planned Tirreno. It's going to be a whole other story, without predictions, but that much is sure.

 

[Blanco]

Vingegaard was at PN for training. The Remco Tadej will face at Liege won't be the Remco Pog dropped in post-trauma Lombardia or miss-planned Tirreno. It's going to be a whole other story, without predictions, but that much is sure.

Like in Pais Vasco?

 

[frisenfruitig]

Vingegaard was at PN for training. The Remco Tadej will face at Liege won't be the Remco Pog dropped in post-trauma Lombardia or miss-planned Tirreno. It's going to be a whole other story, without predictions, but that much is sure.

Training for what? He went to PN to get a good result but wasn't good enough to win. No shame in that, Pogacar was absolutely flying at that point.

 

[Extinction]

Like in Pais Vasco?

No, he was also training there, but without competition. Everything must be factored into the inexorable preparation for le Tour.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

What if Remco has 20s on Pogačar after RaF, is it a done deal?
I'm imagining this forum if Remco wins on Sunday, haha...it's gonna be fun.
I hope for a Gaudu or Woods win tbh

If Remco gets such an advantage and both are in comparable form then Tadej (or anyone) won't catch him.

 

[Extinction]

Training for what? He went to PN to get a result but wasn't good enough to win. No shame in that, Pogacar was absolutely flying at that point.

You don't get it chap, Vingegaard went for a "good result," but only in light of his present form then with long-range eyes on the Tour. It's classic dissimulation! Come July he'll set things straight.

 

[Blanco]

No, he was also training there, but without competition. Everything must be factored into the inexorable preparation for le Tour.

Yeah, Pogacar is doing the same... Remco and Roglic too...