Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Extinction]

Yeah, Pogacar is doing the same... Remco and Roglic too...

No, Pogacar is going for wins everywhere. It's not the same.

 

[Oldermanish]

You misunderstood me Logic-...

If Tadej drops Remco on the Roche, for Remco to catch up in the remaining 15k, he not only has to be a naturally better rouleur (I dont argue that he is not) but also have less effects of attrition, because with enough attrition even a better rouleur (MvdP) can lose. And attrition is a relevant factor at the end of a race with lots of climbing and over 250km of length.

I argue that compared to the people who get more affected by attrition on the climbs than Tadej does (99+% of rouleurs), Tadej will be in an even better spot than he was at Flanders, because there are more climbs here (that work in his favour attrition wise). And at Flanders there were enough climbs that no rouleur was able to match Tadej at the end (because of attrition), and there were all the worlds best rouleurs (but Remco) there.

So for Remco to win the rouleur game, he has to be close to equal in the attrition game. To be close to equal in the attrition game, he has to handle the climbing meters (with regards to the attrition, not the lack of the kick Tadej has (but that can play a part in attrition games)) close to equally as good as Tadej.

Which is also how I concluded my post that you quoted.


In other words:
Remco must not pay more (in terms of energy for the day) on the climbs that Tadej does.

Not saying it's impossible, but it's a big ask.

The big challenge and focus for anyone that wants to win it is positioning for climbs. Tadej has shown to be very good at being in the right place, with momentum on most climbs. I agree with that attrition impact on everyone. Who has to endure those issues could be the early indicator of the final winner.

 

[Blanco]

No, Pogacar is going for wins everywhere. It's not the same.

No, he, for example, was in Paris-Nice just as a training for the classics, but win just came along...

 

[Extinction]

No, he, for example, was in Paris-Nice just as a training for the classics, but win just came along...

Not the same, because Pog has an exceptionally high floor, Vingo an exceptionally high ceiling.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I know, but it will actually make some sense this time. They are both targeting L-B-L and are both in good shape. So the winner should be rewarded with some kind of a strong claim (if it makes sense). For now the strongest argument seems to be..."bbbut, bbbut in San Sebastian Remco was stronger" which always makes me laugh when I hear it to be honest.

When has anyone ever used San Sebastian to claim Evenepoel is stronger than Pogacar? Seems to me you are simply trolling. Especially since you seem to think that is the strongest argument, and not winning the WCC, where he beat the best in the world, including Pogacar. So far i have not seen anyone claim he is better than Pogacar, let alone based on CSS.

What if Remco has 20s on Pogačar after RaF, is it a done deal?
I'm imagining this forum if Remco wins on Sunday, haha...it's gonna be fun.
I hope for a Gaudu or Woods win tbh

If Evenepoel drops Pogacar (not due to a puncture or other mishap) on RaF and gets 20s (in a 1v1 situation) then yes it's a done deal. Because that would mean he beat Pogacar on "his own turf" and you could conclude he is stronger/fresher in the final of the race. With the final stretch to the finish, being Evenepoel's turf, i can't see Pogacar closing that gap, especially since he would in that scenario have proven to be weaker on RaF.

 

[Andy schleck]

No, he, for example, was in Paris-Nice just as a training for the classics, but win just came along...

Vingegaard got some personal problems before PN . He couldn't be at PN with the shape of vuelta al pais vasco because of that. Sorry for saying this on remco's thread.

 

[how yes no?]

First of all, why do you assume Van der Poel to be a superior rouleur than Pogacar? I do not think so, i think they are quite similar in that regard. But i think it is clear Evenepoel is a level above both.
As i explained, lets say both Evenepoel and Pogacar go all out on Roche Aux Faucons, they both go equally "deep" then Pogacar would drop Evenepoel (drafting not accounted for) and Pogacar would do the climb quicker. Assuming attrition for Evenepoel would be bigger is not based on anything. You can either assume Evenepoel goes deeper and is able to follow (then there is no need to close a gap) or you can assume Evenepoel does not go deeper but gets dropped instead (then he has to rely on his rouleur capabilities). Or you can assume Evenepoel is dumb and burns himself trying to follow Pogacar but gets dropped anyway, in which scenario i would agree he would no longer be able to close the gap.

Well, Van der Poel (and the other competition in Flanders) is I think among the best rouleurs in the world (I don't know who (but Remco?) is considerably better) so if Pogačar is about equal, and only Evenepoel is a class above all the rest, than I agree transitive comparison with Flanders race does not say much. But I'm not yet convinced that Remco is completely in his own class.

You very nicely put forward the possible scenarios. I think that if Remco does indeed get dropped 15-20s, then I think that the last scenario, where he at least partially burns out is the most likely, because I don't imagine him just completely letting Pogačar go and ridding his own tempo, there are not many examples of him doing that, there is also the aerodynamic advantage which he would not want to let go, without trying hard and I also believe he is too proud to simply let Tadej run away.
Edit: One more thing. I also believe he has got a of confidence in his new sprint abilities and would prefer to try and stay with Tadej and contest the sprint without having to rely on his possible rouleur advantage to catch up.

I'm completely aware I might be proven wrong on multiple points, but at this point I agree that more speculation can not get us much further.

 

[Extinction]

Well, Van der Poel (and the other competition in Flanders) is I think among the best rouleurs in the world (I don't know who (but Remco?) is considerably better) so if Pogačar is about equal, and only Evenepoel is a class above all the rest, than I agree transitive comparison with Flanders race does not say much. But I'm not yet convinced that Remco is completely in his own class.

You very nicely put forward the possible scenarios. I think that if Remco does indeed get dropped 15-20s, then I think that the last scenario, where he at least partially burns out is the most likely, because I don't imagine him just completely letting Pogačar go and ridding his own tempo, there are not many examples of him doing that, there is also the aerodynamic advantage which he would not want to let go, without trying hard and I also believe he is too proud to simply let Tadej run away.
Edit: One more thing. I also believe he has got a of confidence in his new sprint abilities and would prefer to try and stay with Tadej and contest the sprint without having to rely on his possible rouleur advantage to catch up.

I'm completely aware I might be proven wrong on multiple points, but at this point I agree that more speculation can not get us much further.

It's going to be a war of attrition, so whoever gets dropped inside the last 30 km isn't getting back and, if not, it will go to the line in an elites sprint. Without incident, however, I think it will be fireworks between Pogacar and Evenepoel.

PS. You keep assuming Pog is going to drop Evenepoel, but this is highly debatable.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Well, Van der Poel (and the other competition in Flanders) is I think among the best rouleurs in the world (I don't know who (but Remco?) is considerably better) so if Pogačar is about equal, and only Evenepoel is a class above all the rest, than I agree transitive comparison with Flanders race does not say much. But I'm not yet convinced that Remco is completely in his own class.

You very nicely put forward the possible scenarios. I think that if Remco does indeed get dropped 15-20s, then I think that the last scenario, where he at least partially burns out is the most likely, because I don't imagine him just completely letting Pogačar go and ridding his own tempo, there are not many examples of him doing that, there is also the aerodynamic advantage which he would not want to let go, without trying hard and I also believe he is too proud to simply let Tadej run away.
Edit: One more thing. I also believe he has got a of confidence in his new sprint abilities and would prefer to try and stay with Tadej and contest the sprint without having to rely on his possible rouleur advantage to catch up.

I'm completely aware I might be proven wrong on multiple points, but at this point I agree that more speculation can not get us much further.

In the scenario where Evenepoel goes in the red and still gets dropped, i was talking about during the climb. Not afterwards on the flat.

If you are not convinced Evenepoel is in his own class, as a rouleur, then there is indeed nothing left to discuss. I think the evidence speaks for itself though. The entire discussion was hypothetical to begin with anyway.

 

[Netserk]

If you are not convinced Evenepoel is in his own class, as a rouleur, then there is indeed nothing left to discuss. I think the evidence speaks for itself though.

Yeah, no.

What evidence does the speaking that he is not merely a better rouleur than Van Aert and Van der Poel, but in his own class above them?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

lol

 

[how yes no?]

It's going to be a war of attrition, so whoever gets dropped inside the last 30 km isn't getting back and, if not, it will go to the line in an elites sprint. Without incident, however, I think it will be fireworks between Pogacar and Evenepoel.

PS. You keep assuming Pog is going to drop Evenepoel, but this is highly debatable.

We generally agree I think.

I was talking about this specific scenario where Pogačar drops Evenepoel, because this is a hypothetical scenario which Logic-... presented and I replied to with my own speculations, not because I would necessarily believe it's the most likely outcome.

 

[Berniece]

Yeah, no.

What evidence does the speaking that he is not merely a better rouleur than Van Aert and Van der Poel, but in his own class above them?

Wasn't there a stat of current riders in the peloton that won solo, and how many kilometers they rode solo for their win? I think Evenpoel had more than double or triple of the second person on that list.

 

[Extinction]

We generally agree I think.

I was talking about this specific scenario where Pogačar drops Evenepoel, because this is a hypothetical scenario which Logic-... presented and I replied to with my own speculations, not because I would necessarily believe it's the most likely outcome.

Bar incident, Pogacar isn't dropping Evenepoel.

 

[Big Doopie]

Remco got dropped on the stiffest climb on the last stage of Itzulia last year. However he went at his pace without going into the red. He then TT-ed back to the front group and won the intermediate sprint before getting dropped again on the last climb.

I believe it is that type of scenario that @Logic-is-your-friend may be alluding to.

For me Pog has to be the out and out favorite. Hoping that Remco can put more than a spanner in the works…

 

[Extinction]

Remco got dropped on the stiffest climb on the last stage of Itzulia last year. However he went at his pace without going into the red. He then TT-ed back to the front group and won the intermediate sprint before getting dropped again on the last climb.

I believe it is that type of scenario that @Logic-is-your-friend may be alluding to.

For me Pog has to be the out and out favorite. Hoping that Remco can put more than a spanner in the works…

? Got dopped in Ituzula is like comparing oranges to apples in the current dynamic.

 

[Big Doopie]

? Got dopped in Ituzula is like comparing oranges to apples in the current dynamic.

Seriously I have no idea what you are on about? Have you been following any of the back and forth with logic. I am not comparing anything. I am simply explaining what logic may be hinting at. That Remco might use superior tting to come back if he is dropped but does not go into the red. Like he did at Itzulia.

I have NO IDEA why you are making this into anything BUT that as that is ALL I was an addressing. Not even discussing what is likely to actually happen.

Jesus. Sometimes…

 

[peterfin]

While Pogacar has his best spring ever and is in a superb shape, the Remco of Catalunya looked equally well ahead of his best shape in March sofar. The great, and especially tactically great performance of Roglic could obscure this fact. So unless Remco experiences a backlash due to his second training camp at altitude (not impossible), we should expect him being in an even better shape than last year at LBL. Excluding the heat stroke in Switzerland, Remco started to outperform in LBL and could keep up that shape until the end of the season. However, it is safe to assume that he was a bit better later in the season with his most important goal being the Vuelta. This time the Giro is wat matters so this could be beneficial for LBL. In short, I really think he will be in blistering shape full of eagerness to show it. It will be key for Pogacar to match his intensity this Sunday or the rainbow will shine in Liege. I hope my assessment is right so we really get a battle which keeps us on the edge of our seat.

 

[Peyroteo94]

I think Remco is in better shape than Pogacar however Pogacar at his best is the best rider in the world. I think Remco is really close to his best shape because there is only 2 weeks between Liege and Giro however Remco may misses race sharpness and Liege will be a hard race, probably will rain so Pogacar might be better prepared even if I think Remco is closer to his ceilling

 

[Gigs_98]

Just to come back to the 20s thing one last time, one thing I don't understand is the focus on Remco being a rouleur. I mean yeah, that's a discipline he is really good at, but it's not like he isn't a world class climber too. It's true that if you made a TT starting on the top of RaF, Remco might finish more than 20s ahead of Pogacar. But that's not how classics work.

If Remco is 20s behind at that point it won't be on purpose. If you don't immediately react to accelerations you momentarily lose 2 or 3 seconds, not 20. If he is that far down it's because Pogacar was simply the stronger climber that day and if that's the power dynamic of the race, I don't see Remco closing this kind of gap.

 

[Big Doopie]

Just to come back to the 20s thing one last time, one thing I don't understand is the focus on Remco being a rouleur. I mean yeah, that's a discipline he is really good at, but it's not like he isn't a world class climber too. It's true that if you made a TT starting on the top of RaF, Remco might finish more than 20s ahead of Pogacar. But that's not how classics work.

If Remco is 20s behind at that point it won't be on purpose. If you don't immediately react to accelerations you momentarily lose 2 or 3 seconds, not 20. If he is that far down it's because Pogacar was simply the stronger climber that day and if that's the power dynamic of the race, I don't see Remco closing this kind of gap.

As he did not close the gap at Itzulia in 2022.

But he did. Lol.

However I am the first to say that if this scenario happens, Pog still wins in the sprint.

The fact is this scenario is super unlikely to happen. Pog has no need to drop Remco. So only way Pog loses is if Remco manages to drop Pog. It will be a challenge. No doubt.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

As he did not close the gap at Itzulia in 2022.

But he did. Lol.

However I am the first to say that if this scenario happens, Pog still wins in the sprint.

The fact is this scenario is super unlikely to happen. Pog has no need to drop Remco. So only way Pog loses is if Remco manages to drop Pog. It will be a challenge. No doubt.

Different situation and he ended up losing time anyways.

 

[Extinction]

Seriously I have no idea what you are on about? Have you been following any of the back and forth with logic. I am not comparing anything. I am simply explaining what logic may be hinting at. That Remco might use superior tting to come back if he is dropped but does not go into the red. Like he did at Itzulia.

I have NO IDEA why you are making this into anything BUT that as that is ALL I was an addressing. Not even discussing what is likely to actually happen.

Jesus. Sometimes…

Calm down man, for Christ's sake get a hold of yourself.

The point is that Itzulia is a no-sense comparison and thus totally irrelevent, as it was an early season stage race at which Remco was nowhere near top form. By contrast, Liege is a major target at the threashold of the biggest objective of the year, the Giro. He thus will be in the very best shape possible for la grande partenza. Moreover, he won't want to make an arse of himself against Pog at the home race he conquered last year. So no way he'll need to TT back to Tadej, because if he does it will be over since he's already been dropped! As I don't see anybody getting dropped in say the last 30 km being able to come back. The race is going to be too hard for that and so the one that gets ahead shall win.

 

[Extinction]

Just to come back to the 20s thing one last time, one thing I don't understand is the focus on Remco being a rouleur. I mean yeah, that's a discipline he is really good at, but it's not like he isn't a world class climber too. It's true that if you made a TT starting on the top of RaF, Remco might finish more than 20s ahead of Pogacar. But that's not how classics work.

If Remco is 20s behind at that point it won't be on purpose. If you don't immediately react to accelerations you momentarily lose 2 or 3 seconds, not 20. If he is that far down it's because Pogacar was simply the stronger climber that day and if that's the power dynamic of the race, I don't see Remco closing this kind of gap.

Exactly

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

This duel, Pog vs Remco, next Sunday, could become epic. I hope we‘ll see a great race.

I wish for a finale beginning at 80k to go, for snow in the Ardennes, and Pog and Remco in best shape…