Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Blanco]

The hype is too big. Someone else will win...

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Not sure if all these discussed scenarios regarding Remco being dropped will happen on Sunday. I expect Remco to be in red-hot form (it's possible that he'll be a bit subdued after altitude training though) while for Pogacar it actually may be one race too many to keep his level. Time will tell.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Calm down man, for Christ's sake get a hold of yourself.

The point is that Itzulia is a no-sense comparison and thus totally irrelevent, as it was an early season stage race at which Remco was nowhere near top form. By contrast, Liege is a major target at the threashold of the biggest objective of the year, the Giro. He thus will be in the very best shape possible for la grande partenza. Moreover, he won't want to make an arse of himself against Pog at the home race he conquered last year. So no way he'll need to TT back to Tadej, because if he does it will be over since he's already been dropped! As I don't see anybody getting dropped in say the last 30 km being able to come back. The race is going to be too hard for that and so the one that gets ahead shall win.

His comparison made perfect sense because A/ we are discussing a hypothetical scenario in which he gets dropped on RaF by Pogacar, not a prediction that he will B/ it was early season for his competitors too C/ he wasn't in the best shape yet, yet he managed to do exactly what we are discussing D/ other parameters are of little concern, he got dropped on a short steep climb after a hard day, had to bridge to to the front where they were actively racing against him.

Your claim that it would be all over in that scenario is not logical because in this hypothetical scenario he is facing the best rider in the world on that type of climb. Pogacar distancing Evenepoel (in case he attacks) would simply be the natural order of things, even if Evenepoel is his equal, since they simply both have different skillsets. If both are 100% and both race RaF at 100% it will be Pogacar that reaches the top first. But it would not mean Evenepoel could not close that gap in the following 15k to the finish in that scenario.

 

[Extinction]

His comparison made perfect sense because A/ we are discussing a hypothetical scenario in which he gets dropped on RaF by Pogacar, not a prediction that he will B/ it was early season for his competitors too C/ he wasn't in the best shape yet, yet he managed to do exactly what we are discussing D/ other parameters are of little concern, he got dropped on a short steep climb after a hard day, had to bridge to to the front where they were actively racing against him.

Your claim that it would be all over in that scenario is not logical because in this hypothetical scenario he is facing the best rider in the world on that type of climb. Pogacar distancing Evenepoel (in case he attacks) would simply be the natural order of things, even if Evenepoel is his equal, since they simply both have different skillsets. If both are 100% and both race RaF at 100% it will be Pogacar that reaches the top first. But it would not mean Evenepoel could not close that gap in the following 15k to the finish in that scenario.

I simply don't agree with the analogy, which isn't logical because the form Evenepoel should have in this Liege, on the eve of the Giro, should be incomparable to that which he had in Itzulia last year. And it doesn't matter the spring form of his rivals, especially Pog, because Tadej had already by then reached maturity with 2 Tours under his belt. Since then, by contrast, Remco has won a GT and Worlds, not to mention Liege and a second San Sebastian. He thus should be reaching maturity, as already his spring campaign this year has been a marked improvement over last season. So he's already banked some of the growth he gained last year.

My contention, futhermore, as I have already intimated, is that whoever drops the other (if this is the case) on say RaF isn't getting caught, because for the one to drop the other will be in my estimation a ko punch, not a mere knockdown punch. I don't know if Evenepoel will distance Pogacar, but I wouldn't be surprised with the form and maturity coming into the race if he does. Of course, from imagining something being possible and actually doing it are two different things. However, I think Remco's talent warrants the thought.

 

[Gigs_98]

Funnily enough I'm now the one not quite as convinced Pogacar would drop Evenepoel on RaF if they are both at 100%. Historically RaF isn't that big of a difference maker. Usually there are small groups getting over the top of it and the attacks on the easier climb right afterwards are the ones deciding the race. I think the most likely outcome is that there is never a gap between them all race and the decision comes in a sprint.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I simply don't agree with the analogy, which isn't logical because the form Evenepoel should have in this Liege, on the eve of the Giro, should be incomparable to that which he had in Itzulia last year. And it doesn't matter the spring form of his rivals, especially Pog, because Tadej had already by then reached maturity with 2 Tours under his belt. Since then, by contrast, Remco has won a GT and Worlds, not to mention Liege and a second San Sebastian. He thus should be reaching maturity, as already his spring campaign this year has been a marked improvement over last season. So he's already banked some of the growth he gained last year.

My contention, futhermore, as I have already intimated, is that whoever drops the other (if this is the case) on say RaF isn't getting caught, because for the one to drop the other will be in my estimation a ko punch, not a mere knockdown punch. I don't know if Evenepoel will distance Pogacar, but I wouldn't be surprised with the form and maturity coming into the race if he does. Of course, from imagining something being possible and actually doing it are two different things. However, I think Remco's talent warrants the thought.

There is no way of knowing how the race will unfold. Whether one or the other will have had to burn needless energy before reaching that point in the race, for who attrition will be the biggest issue. There is no way of predicting how Evenepoel's form coming from altitude will relate to Pogacar who has been on high form for a month or longer. Hence it makes little sense infusing such arguments into a hypothetical scenario which is quite clear cut imho. All things equal (!), Pogacar is superior on short steep climbs and Evenepoel is superior on flat sections. I think it's hard to disagree with that, no? As such, if Evenepoel gets dropped on RaF, and doesn't exert himself in his effort to follow Pogacar more than Pogacar in his effort to drop his rival, then there is a good possibility the former can depend on his superior rouleur skills to close the gap. It would then make sense that Pogacar wins the sprint.

This is what we were discussing. We were not discussing whether Evenepoel's grandma had the flue or how the mental state of Pogacar's pet dog could influence his motivation. Nor how their career trajectories uptil now would come together on that particular moment in time and decide how the cookie crumbles.

 

[Extinction]

There is no way of knowing how the race will unfold. Whether one or the other will have had to burn needless energy before reaching that point in the race, for who attrition will be the biggest issue. There is no way of predicting how Evenepoel's form coming from altitude will relate to Pogacar who has been on high form for a month or longer. Hence it makes little sense infusing such arguments into a hypothetical scenario which is quite clear cut imho. All things equal (!), Pogacar is superior on short steep climbs and Evenepoel is superior on flat sections. I think it's hard to disagree with that, no? As such, if Evenepoel gets dropped on RaF, and doesn't exert himself in his effort to follow Pogacar more than Pogacar in his effort to drop his rival, then there is a good possibility the former can depend on his superior rouleur skills to close the gap. It would then make sense that Pogacar wins the sprint.

This is what we were discussing. We were not discussing whether Evenepoel's grandma had the flue or how the mental state of Pogacar's pet dog could influence his motivation. Nor how their career trajectories uptil now would come together on that particular moment in time and decide how the cookie crumbles.

I don't recall having brought up grandma or pet dogs, so I'm a bit baffled. At any rate, even though I have stated it plainly for those who have read my posts attentively, I shall repeat that a) I have no idea how things will play out on Sunday (and have used the "not having a crystal ball" analogy to underscore the point) and b) my biggest doubt is over how racing right after altitude camp will affect him (this too I have already mentioned in no uncertain terms).

So here we agree, no? Having said that, based on last year, it's reasonable to imagine Evenepoel will by flying on Sunday (but naturally this doesn't mean that he will). As far as Pog is concerned he will either continue with his super form or won't. I realize that's obvious, however, I think in the case both are flying Remco doesn't get dropped by Pog and suspect it could be the opposite. But, yea, it's just a hypothesis. Yet I still believe that if one drops the other he's going to the line, because it's my feeling that both will die three times before giving up the other's wheel and so the discussion of chasing back is moot.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't recall having brought up grandma or pet dogs, so I'm bit a bit baffled. At any rate, even though I have stated it plainly for those who have read my posts attentively, I shall repeat it that a) I have no idea how things will play out on Sunday (and have used the not having a crystal ball analogy to emphasize the point) and b) my biggest doubt is over how racing right after altitude camp will affect him (this too I have already mentioned in no uncertain terms).

So here we agree, no? Having said that, based on last year, it's reasonable to imagine Evenepoel will by flying on Sunday(but naturally this doesn't mean that he will). As far as Pog is concerned he will either continue with his super form or won't. I realize that's obvious, however, I think in the case both are flying Remco doesn't get dropped by Pog and suspect it could be the opposite. But, yea, it's just a hypothesis. Yet I still believe that if one drops the other he's going to the line, because it's my feeling that both will die three times before giving up the other's wheel and so the discussion of chasing back is moot.

For a discussion you believe to be moot, you have invested quite some time in it. There was a hypothesis based on a certain premise. You are free to feel that it is nonsensical to discuss that, and you are free not to partake in the discussion. However, if you do decide to participate in the discussion and want to contest other's opinions, it should be by agreeing to the premise and not by creating your own set of parameters that were not part of the discussion. This is why i brought up grandmas and dogs. They were no more part of the discussion as Pogacar's second Tour victory or guessing how the race will unfold, so they are equally relevant in this discussion.

But i have noted your opinion that you don't think this scenario is realistic or will pan out. I never said it would. Only that should it happen as the premise of the hypothesis has been determined, that it could very well happen.

 

[Extinction]

For a discussion you believe to be moot, you have invested quite some time in it. There was a hypothesis based on a certain premise. You are free to feel that it is nonsensical to discuss that, and you are free not to partake in the discussion. However, if you do decide to participate in the discussion and want to contest other's opinions, it should be by agreeing to the premise and not by creating your own set of parameters that were not part of the discussion. This is why i brought up grandmas and dogs. They were no more part of the discussion as Pogacar's second Tour victory or guessing how the race will unfold, so they are equally relevant in this discussion.

But i have noted your opinion that you don't think this scenario is realistic or will pan out. I never said it would. Only that should it happen as the premise of the hypothesis has been determined, that it could very well happen.

My dear Logic chaos prevails in the cosmos, not least of which here in the CN universe. Now, not only do I think my contribution to the discussion was pertinent, but absolutely essential to getting to the heart of the matter; namely, any comparison with Itzulia is misplaced. It's not out of order to state the premise is flawed and therefore ridiculous. Let's just see what happens Sunday.

 

[Nick2413]

I also agree whoever drops the other will win outright going solo to the line, unless it’s the equivalent of Wout’s drop in E3.

 

[Oldermanish]

As he did not close the gap at Itzulia in 2022.

But he did. Lol.

However I am the first to say that if this scenario happens, Pog still wins in the sprint.

The fact is this scenario is super unlikely to happen. Pog has no need to drop Remco. So only way Pog loses is if Remco manages to drop Pog. It will be a challenge. No doubt.

Tactically Pogacar should keep Remco's diesel working for him as long as necessary.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Tactically Pogacar should keep Remco's diesel working for him as long as necessary.

Why would Evenepoel be more inclined to work with Pogacar than the other way around? Pogacar is the new Merckx. Pogacar is the better sprinter. Why on earth should Evenepoel be the one to do the work, lol. If Pogacar fancies his chances better in a group sprint with 20 other guys, he is free not to work of course. If i'm Evenepoel, i would work enough to distance the competition, and then take a page out the book Roglic wrote. Sit in the wheel and only get to the front to attack. If unsuccessful, get back into the wheel again.

 

[wheresmybrakes]

Why would Evenepoel be more inclined to work with Pogacar than the other way around? Pogacar is the new Merckx. Pogacar is the better sprinter. Why on earth should Evenepoel be the one to do the work, lol. If Pogacar fancies his chances better in a group sprint with 20 other guys, he is free not to work of course. If i'm Evenepoel, i would work enough to distance the competition, and then take a page out the book Roglic wrote. Sit in the wheel and only get to the front to attack. If unsuccessful, get back into the wheel again.

Better change the thread title then

 

[Didinho]

Why would Evenepoel be more inclined to work with Pogacar than the other way around? Pogacar is the new Merckx. Pogacar is the better sprinter. Why on earth should Evenepoel be the one to do the work, lol. If Pogacar fancies his chances better in a group sprint with 20 other guys, he is free not to work of course. If i'm Evenepoel, i would work enough to distance the competition, and then take a page out the book Roglic wrote. Sit in the wheel and only get to the front to attack. If unsuccessful, get back into the wheel again.

That's what we all were saying in Catalunya every day. Even in the Vuelta. Or every one day race where he was yelling at the others, he kept riding in front. That's just how he is. He's always been stronger with stupid tactics, but this Giro (or maybe Sunday) it might change his approach if he learned something from Catalunya.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Better change the thread title then

No. Pog should have been impressive sooner. You snooze, you lose.

 

[Berflamand]

Why would Evenepoel be more inclined to work with Pogacar than the other way around? Pogacar is the new Merckx. Pogacar is the better sprinter. Why on earth should Evenepoel be the one to do the work, lol. If Pogacar fancies his chances better in a group sprint with 20 other guys, he is free not to work of course. If i'm Evenepoel, i would work enough to distance the competition, and then take a page out the book Roglic wrote. Sit in the wheel and only get to the front to attack. If unsuccessful, get back into the wheel again.

I don't disagree that would be the better tactic but I think he's far too confident and eager to simply sit on Pog's wheel. I think he even has the mindset that he could beat Pogacar in a sprint if it comes to that.

 

[Didinho]

I don't disagree that would be the better tactic but I think he's far too confident and eager to simply sit on Pog's wheel. I think he even has the mindset that he could beat Pogacar in a sprint if it comes to that.

Lampaert said in a podcast that he's not sure that Pogi would win easily in the sprint. That he sprinted against Remco and had to dug really deep (1400W) to beat him. But I think it will always come down to who got more left in the legs after 250km.

 

[Berflamand]

Lampaert said in a podcast that he's not sure that Pogi would win easily in the sprint. That he sprinted against Remco and had to dug really deep (1400W) to beat him. But I think it will always come down to who got more left in the legs after 250km.

Yeah I heard that as well but Lampaert still beat him and I think Pog is faster than Lampaert, especially after a hard race. Personally I do think he might actually have a small chance in the sprint after a hard day considering his sprints in Catalunya but I think in Remco's mind, that chance is a lot bigger.

 

[red_flanders]

Well, as exciting as it is watching people argue about minutia on an internet forum, it's also interesting that Remco posted a ride on Strava today.
Includes a fair number of KOM's.

🌋20 | Strava

Adios 🫡 | Strava

www.strava.com

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

That's what we all were saying in Catalunya every day. Even in the Vuelta. Or every one day race where he was yelling at the others, he kept riding in front. That's just how he is. He's always been stronger with stupid tactics, but this Giro (or maybe Sunday) it might change his approach if he learned something from Catalunya.

Catalunya and Vuelta are GC's, so there was always more incentive to keep riding once opposition was dropped. Let's hope he has learned since the '21ECC.

And yes, Lampaert isn't beating Pogacar in a sprint.

 

[Skijumper Roglic fan]

Sunday‘s LBL is gonna be epic. Looking forward to it, very much…

Liege is my favourite one-day race to watch.

Then, this year, we‘ll have Remco, almost in Giro shape. Remco will be in super good shape.

Then we have Pogacar, having a spring in which he wins nearly everything he rides. He‘ll be in great shape, too.

Old man Nibali was really impressed by Remco on the Redoute in LBL last year. Remco was dominating.

This year, Remco will face Pogacar, who can do similar things to Remco‘s Redoute of 2022.

I don‘t dare to predict the winner next Sunday…

 

[Didinho]

I heard something about the Redoute being couple hundred metres shorter, so without the last part where Remco attacked. Maybe he can go from the bottom now Some VDB-Bartoli side by side would be lovely!

 

[Andy schleck]

Remco in top shape can beat pogacar.
Pogacar is winning without being in top shape because there's no serious opponents.

 

[red_flanders]

I heard something about the Redoute being couple hundred metres shorter, so without the last part where Remco attacked. Maybe he can go from the bottom now Some VDB-Bartoli side by side would be lovely!

Is there a way off it other than the traditional one?

 

[Didinho]

Is there a way off it other than the traditional one?

Yes they're going right (if I remember correctly) after the steep part or so. Or a bit further where he attacked somewhere.

Edit: found the article.

"La Redoute zal niet tot op de top beklommen worden, 300 meter eerder wordt er naar rechts afgeslagen, waarna er na een afdaling een nieuwe klim volgt (die officieel echter niet als helling wordt gecategoriseerd), de Côte de Cornémont."


So 300m shorter. Turn right there, a downhill into another uncategorised climb.