One would take the Vuelta win for sure, but neither is a given. One could always make such assumptions and thus never go to the Tour. At the end of the day I believe a little sickness should not derail the whole season and therefore he should make the adjustment to go to the Tour after racing just 9 days at the Giro.
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He would go against the defending champion, who has been working towards this goal and comes 100% prepared, while he (Evenepoel) did not work towards that goal, already peaked for LBL 2 months ago, did not have the best preparation, missing the ideal altitude camps, not having done any recons etc. Is it impossible for him to win the TDF? Maybe not, maybe Vingegaard crashes out, Pogacar also didn't have the best prep with his wrist, etc. But chances of him winning are slim at best. While if he goes to the Vuelta, he has a 50% chance of winning, in case he doesn't crash or get sick.
What happens when he goes to the Tour and crashes out or gets sick again? Then it is a completely wasted season. Because then he won't get ready for the WCC and surely can't peak for a 3rd GT in one year. Let him go to the WCC and then defend his Vuelta title, and come back next year fully prepared to tackle the Tour.
Well, if Pogacar goes there, with Roglic also present, his percentage will decrease dramatically...
Even if his chances of winning the GC are slim, a stage win and a podium in Paris would be a great result for Evenepoel in my book. I still think it would have been worth a shot.
Pogacar going is pure speculation. I don't think he has mentioned the Vuelta all year.
Is podium at the Tour worth more than a Vuelta win? Cause it's really not in my book.
Well he should not be fearing Vingo in any case, even if he is 100% prepared for the Tour. Pogacar also peaked for LBL, in fact, Remco would probably go to the Tour better prepared than Pog. Therefore, I still believe he should do the Tour and not be fearing failure.
Easier to podium Tour. And it buys you a lottery ticket for yellow.
At this point, I’d prefer 4th in the Tour over 2nd in the Vuelta.
At this point we could easily see an incredibly hard contested Vuelta. Wouldn't rule any of the best GT riders out, and a few are already confirmed.
Thats definitely not 50%, but lets wait and see the actual startlist.
Thats definitely not 50%, but lets wait and see the actual startlist.
Lance Armstrong himself mocked Ullrich in the mid zeroes "If I was him, I would've tried something else!"
So either winning the Giro d'Italia or another Vuelta a Espana.
So the rider who was all focused on the Tour de France actually agrees with you!
Pogacar peaked for spring classics and LBL came at the very end of that peak. With Evenepoel, it was the exact opposite.
Sure, 45%, whatever. I already included Roglic in that assumption, and i doubt Pogacar will do a Vuelta at 100% form after doing the Tour, unless he DNF early.
Point was that he has a lot bigger chances winning the Vuelta after a good prep/build-up, than he has winning the Tour after getting sick in the Giro and starting TDF without any reasonable preperation. I would say his chances at doing top 5 in the Tour, are about the same as winning the Vuelta, at best.
Vingegaard will for sure not be there. He never does anything exciting regarding his programme.
Hindley, Almeida, Roglic, Carapaz, Hart, Lopez, Kelderman... all went to the Vuelta last year as well, lest people forget. The difference is who of the top guys starts fully prepared and in top shape. Because only a select few of those are able to beat a fully prepared Evenepoel imho.
It's Armstrong, he'd say that just to be a ***** to someone rather than that he values that Giro or Vuelta at all.
He came back from retirement, because he felt like he missed something not being able to win the 2005 Giro d'Italia due to contractual obligations with Discovery Channel to ride the Tour de France.
So IMHO that's one of the few things he was honest about!
50%?
Should win it easy peasy if so. The rest of them must only have a 5% chance each.
Im talking fully prepared Ayuso, Mas and Roglic, and then riders like Bernal, C-Rod, Carapaz and especially Pogacar are also very interesting if he decides to give it a go.
Wouldn't rule Vingegaard completely out either as he dropped one day races completely this year after getting spanked in Lombardia again. What else is he gonna do? Vacation into one day races in Italy and realizing that Evenepoel and Pogacar are not one, but two levels above again? He'd rather not Im sure.
Can turn out to be a rather weak field, but also the complete opposite.
And the route doesn't favour Evenepoel as it did last year. This time around he will really be tested in the high mountain, on steep gradients, further on into the race. Still don't know how he exactly copes with that.
If Enric frigging Mas can learn to race Italian fall classics, then Vingegaard can too.
Who really cares about the Italian fall classics though outside of cycling aficionados? Not many, I can tell you that, and its basically only one prestigious one day race in that block and he will miss a lot more than he swings at that.
If I had Vingegaard characteristics I'd just go to la Vuelta as 1a/1b with Roglic and then call it a season after Madrid instead of that nonsense. Good long break on top after.
If I had Vingegaard characteristics I'd just go to la Vuelta as 1a/1b with Roglic and then call it a season after Madrid instead of that nonsense. Good long break on top after.
Considering that Remco peaked for the giro and probably the third week of the giro but that in practice he did only a one week WT race (first week of the giro), what can be his shape during the tour? He was forced to rest 9 days and has a bit more than a month to prepare. He is already collecting KOM's again and has a week of competition ahead in the alps. Will his shape be that much worse than his peak? Seriously, how many serious GT contenders will be better prepared than him? Vingegaard most likely. Pogacar maybe but not certain. Mas and Carapaz probably but is it sufficient to put up a big challenge?
Bonimenier
BANNED
Every GT contender will be better prepared. It's up to you to decide how many are serious GT contenders.
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