Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[The fridge in the blue trees]

Can't ride the Tour because it wasn't planned? Funny stuff. It's not like there is a button you push in the beginning of the year and the you automatically get top form when planned, and are down in form later. It can all be tweaked. A lot of "form" is freshness anyway, runners like Bekele were winning almost year round, good times too. Enough time to recover in between. races.

Giving up after 9 days of the Giro, Remco has ample time to get back into top form. Recover from Covid, keep his fitness at a high level, will be in form and fresh for the Tour. He and Lefevre don't want to do it, that's fine too, but his fans coming up with these fantasy reasons why it makes no sense? Ridiculous.

He can ride whatever he wants, IMO either Tour or Vuelta would be nice, but if he thinks the Tour and the Worlds don't fit well, then not riding the Tour makes perfect sense. If he thinks the Vuelta interferes with Lombardia, then don't ride it.

 

[Extinction]

Under these circumstances he isn't going to win the Tour regardless. So if that is what he has to do according to you, there is no point in going to the Tour this year. And there is certainly no point in sacrificing other goals for it.

What you don't understand is that performance is not a linear equation, but cyclical. For this reason, it's time for someone who wants to win the Tour to enter the cycle. And it's not "according to me", but the sport with someone of his calibre.

 

[kingjr]

Not sure why people (his team, the press, his fans, whoever) feel like the only time he can enter a GR or even any big race is when he’s favored to win. What other rider operates to this metric? Now or historically? Bizarre.

There may be a concern of having to deal with a plethora of acerbic comments about how Evenepoel is not what he's made out to be if he can't match Vingegaard/Pogacar.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

What you don't understand is that performance is not a linear equation, but cyclical. For this reason, it's time for someone who wants to win the Tour to enter the cycle. And it's not "according to me", but the sport with someone of his calibre.

Yes, tell me how i don't understand that there will be a new chance to ride the Tour NEXT YEAR when he can be fully prepared. Because clearly i'm the one not grasping that.

 

[Big Doopie]

Not sure why people (his team, the press, his fans, whoever) feel like the only time he can enter a GR or even any big race is when he’s favored to win. What other rider operates to this metric? Now or historically? Bizarre.

He’s not going to the Tour largely (it would seem) due to the team having had a plan to ride for Jacobsen and Alaphillipe. Yes, form and optimizing the season has to come into it, but the blather about him not riding the Vuelta suggests there are other very strange considerations involved.

The arguments not to go to the Tour make sense if and only if he rides the Vuelta. I get that he really likes that rainbow jersey, I would too. And that’s a factor. But any one day race is far more a crapshoot than a stage race. If he’s basing his season on just those two WC events, that’s simply a huge mistake he will regret, short of winning the RR and the TT at the Worlds. Maybe even then.

Hmm. I understand this on one level…

However, I believe the opposite is true, frankly. Look at the Giro, look at his crash in the Vuelta that almost dashed all his plans. Look at all Roglic and G’s abandons. Meanwhile, Remco has as good a hit rate as almost any at one day and weeklong races. He also races with abandon, which is what I cherish most. His GT racing, by necessity, has to be way more conservative and therefore less fun to watch.

 

[Extinction]

Yes, tell me how i don't understand that there will be a new chance to ride the Tour NEXT YEAR when he can be fully prepared. Because clearly i'm the one not grasping that.

Sorry, but this is a distraction from addressing the real issue, namely Soudal is pussyfooting around. Who says he goes to the Tour NEXT YEAR fully prepared? They thought that for the Giro 2020, until he fell off a bridge. They thought that for this Giro until Covid struck!

 

[Big Doopie]

I believe some of his fans would rather not see him at all rather than watch him race at the highest level where to possibility to fail is pretty high. Just for perspective every cyclist has a much higher chance to not win a particular event then to win it.

I actually think the opposite is true.

I am a fan and would like him to limit his GT attempts as it takes him away from so many races where he can light it up and be exciting. In my dream, he would race more, just not focus on GTs that requires riders to abandon most other goals for months at a time…

On the other hand it is almost exclusively Remco detractors who want him at the TDF (ill-prepared)…dropping time and hunting stages ffs! He ultimately basically did that at the Giro this year and most of you think it was a failure.

 

[Oldermanish]

What you don't understand is that performance is not a linear equation, but cyclical. For this reason, it's time for someone who wants to win the Tour to enter the cycle. And it's not "according to me", but the sport with someone of his calibre.

I would agree with those that suggest preparation is key both physically and psychologically.
Defining Remco as possessing a certain "calibre" and only in the game if he can win it doesn't make much sense. He doesn't know what he doesn't know and I'd wager he'd just like to get onto it, ride races and learn what it takes to win beyond his current comfort zone. Unfortunately the investment others have placed on his talents seems to be the prime concern in his management team's planning. Unfortunate and I'm looking forward to him taking chances on events to learn his limits.

 

[Extinction]

I would agree with those that suggest preparation is key both physically and psychologically.
Defining Remco as possessing a certain "calibre" and only in the game if he can win it doesn't make much sense. He doesn't know what he doesn't know and I'd wager he'd just like to get onto it, ride races and learn what it takes to win beyond his current comfort zone. Unfortunately the investment others have placed on his talents seems to be the prime concern in his management team's planning. Unfortunate and I'm looking forward to him taking chances on events to learn his limits.

Preparation is indubbitably the key, but you can't always bank on everything going to plan. There is risk, there is misfortune, there is not living up to expectations. It's life. They have been planning an assault of the Tour for several years now, but problems arose and he has yet to even ride one. Meanwhile two young champions keep gaining experience and winning. Me thinks the Belgians are going to kill the Belgian.

 

[Divergence]

I actually think the opposite is true.

I am a fan and would like him to limit his GT attempts as it takes him away from so many races where he can light it up and be exciting. In my dream, he would race more, just not focus on GTs that requires riders to abandon most other goals for months at a time…

On the other hand it is almost exclusively Remco detractors who want him at the TDF (ill-prepared)…dropping time and hunting stages ffs! He ultimately basically did that at the Giro this year and most of you think it was a failure.

Fair enough. But in this case start comparing him to Bettini or Gilbert or Alaphilippe rather than with Merckx or Rog or Pog.

 

[Big Doopie]

Fair enough. But in this case start comparing him to Bettini or Gilbert or Alaphilippe rather than with Merckx or Rog or Pog.

never compared him to merckx.

i am not saying he won't win more GTs. He will. He already has more than Ala, Gilbert and Bettini pooled together, LOL. So that would be a horrendous comparison.

i have always said he is more like Hinault. not exactly the same. but there are many similarities.

And he could outdo Rog even focusing on only one GT per year.

He is likely to have more GTs in hand than Vingo at his present age.

when remco came onto the scene, I was ridiculed for suggesting that he may end up with either the most LBL or Lombardia wins. well, he isn't doing too badly there so far (particularly since he lost one opportunity at least with his crash). and earlier on these very pages, i suggested that he could be the first to win road and TT championships at every level - national, euro and world (and olympics?). no one else has come close.

he needs to forge his own career and palmares, not try to emulate someone else...

btw pog only has one more GT than remco and is 1 1/2 years older and has had absolutely zero setbacks (until possibly now)...don't get me wrong, pog is the best right now, but their palmares may end up being comparable though not the same.

many here are acting as if pog's trajectory of competing and winning the TDF at 21 is the traditional one. it is not.

btw, remco may yet get to 50 wins before pog (and maybe even merckx) did (and despite losing a year). they may not be the wins you would prioritize since they are not (yet?) in the TDF, but...

primarily, it is his one-day victories and even some of his one-week stage race rides that have been the most exciting, and more so than any other present rider. it is those rides that, as a cycling fan, I do not want to miss out on. his win in the vuelta was great, but certainly not that exciting, since he was forced to be so conservative (for him) and the crash did not help. LBL, San Sebastian, and Worlds last year were all more impressive and amazing in my view.

More of that, please.

 

[houtdffan]

As for the schedule I proposed for Remco for next year being too much, it would only be 64 race days. Not even close to how many Merckx had, less than Valverde's years.

Even less than many of Contador's 2014-2017 seasons

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Sorry, but this is a distraction from addressing the real issue, namely Soudal is pussyfooting around. Who says he goes to the Tour NEXT YEAR fully prepared? They thought that for the Giro 2020, until he fell off a bridge. They thought that for this Giro until Covid struck!

Pussyfooting around? If anything, they have done the opposite regarding his GT's. He was going to do the Giro in 2020 after just having turned 20, which was not planned originally. Then they sent him to the Giro in 2021 which was ill advised to say the least after his injury. Would you have liked they sent him to the Tour in 2021? Then what about 2022? Which was the first time he was back to 100% form, but still had not finished a GT. So get the facts straight. This year was the first year they could have sent him to the Tour, but due to the TT's and likely due to expectations, they chose the Giro (again). The fact that he DNF there doesn't mean he should all of a sudden discard every other goal for this year, and go to the Tour, just for the sake of it. Because why on earth does he have to do the Tour? To show "the right mentality"? For "experience"? To go stagehunting? Because you know the chances are against him given the circumstances to go there to win the thing.

Nobody can look into the future, but the plan is to go to the Tour next year, so i imagine they will do whatever they can to be fully prepared. Things can happen happen and who knows maybe something crosses his path and it again doesn't work out. What we DO know for a FACT, is that this year he is certain NOT to be fully prepared.

 

[Big Doopie]

As for the schedule I proposed for Remco for next year being too much, it would only be 64 race days. Not even close to how many Merckx had, less than Valverde's years.

Even less than many of Contador's 2014-2017 seasons

i know you think they do, but these comparisons do not support your argument at all.

Merckx rode in a different era when his competition was doing an equal amount of races, so he was not hurt by competing against more rested, better-prepped riders.

how many GTs did Valverde "win"? one vuelta. so what you are suggesting is that remco should race all of your chosen races in order to never win a single other GT.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

I can only explain it so many times.

It's not just the fact that he is not prepared and will not be in his best possible shape, while the others will be (maybe Pog not 100% due to his wrist). It is also the fact that he has other goals this year, that would be jeopardised greatly by going to the Tour. So for what? Just to prove he has the right mentality to some people? lol. Chances of winning the Tour are slim under these circumstances. Chances of winning the WCC (TT) would as a result of riding the Tour, also be greatly diminished. This has nothing to do with "mentality", it has to do with common sense.

But apparently he should discard genuine chances to win a WCC, a Vuelta and a monument, just to be an outsider for the 3rd podium spot at the Tour.

The two things that don't make sense to me about your position are:

1. You say the others will be in top shape, unlike Remco, but then you point that, wait, actually Remco will have had prep at least as good as Pogacar, one of the two that most see as a viable winner. So it's just Vingegaard.
2. Why are you so adamant that he will be an outsider for the 3rd podium spot? Many, many, many GTs have been won by people with less than optimal prep, including Roglic in this Giro and in his 3 Vueltas. All it takes is one crash for Vingegaard and they're on equal footing. If he's as good as you think he is, he definitely has a shot at a win.

Under these circumstances he isn't going to win the Tour regardless. So if that is what he has to do according to you, there is no point in going to the Tour this year. And there is certainly no point in sacrificing other goals for it.


The metric i'm using is not that he has to win. The metric is that there has to be a realistic chance to get the result that he should set as a goal under normal circumstances. If his goal is a podium at the Tour, and he thinks he is in good enough shape to reach or come close to that goal, then fine by me. But if his goal is to win the TDF, and he thinks the best he can do under these circumstances is a top 5, then i do not see why on earth he should go for that if that means sacrificing other goals.

But yes, i agree about it only making sense if it means him going to the Vuelta. As i said weeks ago, i don't buy Lefevere's "No Tour, no Vuelta" comments. They don't make sense. Especially since the Vuelta comes after the WCC.

See point 2 above. Why is it you are so adamant about this completely ruining Remco's condition while also asking us to believe that Roglic crashing out of last year's Tour, breaking vertebrae, and racing with a messed up shoulder that required surgery during the off season had no impact on his condition during the last Vuelta. Unbelievable double standards.

I actually think the opposite is true.

I am a fan and would like him to limit his GT attempts as it takes him away from so many races where he can light it up and be exciting. In my dream, he would race more, just not focus on GTs that requires riders to abandon most other goals for months at a time…

On the other hand it is almost exclusively Remco detractors who want him at the TDF (ill-prepared)…dropping time and hunting stages ffs! He ultimately basically did that at the Giro this year and most of you think it was a failure.

I don't see many people advocating for Remco to race, drop time, and hunt stages. Most people just think he should ride the Tour. I am personally fine with him saying he's targeting another Vuelta instead and going for that instead. But many of us don't understand why so many professional races go for it no matter what - poor prep, crashes, injuries, etc. - but for some reason Remco and team are, like, well he got Covid during the Giro, GT season is over.

I do think it is very clear that some of us come from GT-centric world views and some from classic-centric world views, which could explain some discrepancies. For me, he is a top contender for either the Tour or the Vuelta, regardless of a little Covid (unless he is having ongoing issues I have not heard about) and should prioritize the Tour if he think he thinks he can be close to peak form or the Vuelta if he does not.

 

[houtdffan]

i know you think they do, but these comparisons do not support your argument at all.

Merckx rode in a different era when his competition was doing an equal amount of races, so he was not hurt by competing against more rested, better-prepped riders.

how many GTs did Valverde "win"? one vuelta. so what you are suggesting is that remco should race all of your chosen races in order to never win a single other GT.

Contador was winning GTs despite doing that many race days

 

[Red Rick]

Not all race days are the same. Seasons with 4 stage races before the Ardennes don't happen that much anymore. Race days aren't the best metric either, cause the guys with the most race days are the guys who do all the stage races without peaking for any one day race.

If I were Evenepoel I would just copy paste Pogacar's 2022 schedule apart from Dauphine instead of Slovenia. Then after the Tour you reevaluate what you do

 

[Extinction]

Pussyfooting around? If anything, they have done the opposite regarding his GT's. He was going to do the Giro in 2020 after just having turned 20, which was not planned originally. Then they sent him to the Giro in 2021 which was ill advised to say the least after his injury. Would you have liked they sent him to the Tour in 2021? Then what about 2022? Which was the first time he was back to 100% form, but still had not finished a GT. So get the facts straight. This year was the first year they could have sent him to the Tour, but due to the TT's and likely due to expectations, they chose the Giro (again). The fact that he DNF there doesn't mean he should all of a sudden discard every other goal for this year, and go to the Tour, just for the sake of it. Because why on earth does he have to do the Tour? To show "the right mentality"? For "experience"? To go stagehunting? Because you know the chances are against him given the circumstances to go there to win the thing.

Nobody can look into the future, but the plan is to go to the Tour next year, so i imagine they will do whatever they can to be fully prepared. Things can happen happen and who knows maybe something crosses his path and it again doesn't work out. What we DO know for a FACT, is that this year he is certain NOT to be fully prepared.

I agree with this, but in the overall economy of his development, I think now is the time to get his feet wet. The Tour isn't the end all be all, but he needs to get started. If I'm wrong I'll bow down to those wiser than me.

 

[SHAD0W93]

Contador was winning GTs despite doing that many race days

Contador was also not trying to peak for 3 monuments and 2 Olympic races on top of his GT objectives…… Contador was racing to win stage races, which over the long haul is easier to control and win over multiple stages than a hectic monument or Olympic race.

 

[Riek s]

Not all race days are the same. Seasons with 4 stage races before the Ardennes don't happen that much anymore. Race days aren't the best metric either, cause the guys with the most race days are the guys who do all the stage races without peaking for any one day race.

If I were Evenepoel I would just copy paste Pogacar's 2022 schedule apart from Dauphine instead of Slovenia. Then after the Tour you reevaluate what you do

I don't think he needs to do SB (maybe not even WP) but for the rest i agree.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

The two things that don't make sense to me about your position are:

1. You say the others will be in top share, unlike Remco, but then you point that, wait, actually Remco will have had prep at least as good as Pogacar, one of the two that most see as a viable winner. So it's just Vingegaard.
2. Why are you so adamant that he will be an outsider for the 3rd podium spot? Many, many, many GTs have been won by people with less than optimal prep, including Roglic in this Giro and in his 3 Vueltas. All it takes is one crash for Vingegaard and they're on equal footing. If he's as good as you think he is, he definitely has a shot at a win.

See point 2 above. Why is it you are so adamant about this completely ruining Remco's condition while also asking us to believe that Roglic crashing out of last year's Tour, breaking vertebrae, and racing with a messed up shoulder that required surgery during the off season had no impact on his condition during the last Vuelta. Unbelievable double standards.

Since you are putting words in my mouth, i would like to ask you to put your money where your mouth is and quote me where i made such a statement regarding Roglic.

Furthermore, I need to explain the difference between having the Tour as main goal, not finish and go to the Vuelta ill prepared on one hand with having the Giro as main goal, not finish and go to the Tour ill prepared, on the other hand?

Further, you claim i am claiming his prep to be at least as good as Pogacar? Where did i claim that?

Also, Pogacar and Vingegaard are the only riders at the Tour? I was not aware.

So if these double standards you are talking about, is refering to you putting words in people 's mouths and finishing their thoughts for them, then i agree.

 

[Volderke]

If the starting money is so important for Don Patrick, shouldn't we start a Gofundme to get Remco in the Tour?

imho, there are 3 good reasons for having Remco in the Tour:
1. The race would be so much more entertaining, and believe it or not, entertainment on the biggest cycling venue in the world is worth it.
2. All old-school cyclists (including me) would confirm that riding a GT makes you a better rider. Remco has raced exactly 1 GT until now. Racing the Tour in 2023, makes him a better rider in the years to come.
3. As Extinction said: if Remco (and with Remco, the whole of Belgium waiting for almost half a century) wants to win the Tour, he will definitely increase his chances winning, by riding in 2023. So for those that don't see the value of Remco riding a Tour he probably won't win: yes, a top 5 now is worth more than 1 hour of ITT at the world's or whatever other Mickey Mouse race, as the Tour is the nec plus ultra, and winning it, even if only once, is worth more than 5 more Vueltas and 2 more Giros. His chances winning it in 2024 with a perfect preparation but without riding in 2023 are probably smaller than his chances winning it in 2024 with a 90% preparation but having experienced the Tour in 2023. So I wonder why riding it in 2023 isn't part of this 'perfect preparation'?

ps: I just want to see the kid race, and judging by his training rides on Strava, his form is quite OK.

 

[Extinction]

If the starting money is so important for Don Patrick, shouldn't we start a Gofundme to get Remco in the Tour?

imho, there are 3 good reasons for having Remco in the Tour:
1. The race would be so much more entertaining, and believe it or not, entertainment on the biggest cycling venue in the world is worth it.
2. All old-school cyclists (including me) would confirm that riding a GT makes you a better rider. Remco has raced exactly 1 GT until now. Racing the Tour in 2023, makes him a better rider in the years to come.
3. As Extinction said: if Remco (and with Remco, the whole of Belgium waiting for almost half a century) wants to win the Tour, he will definitely increase his chances winning, by riding in 2023. So for those that don't see the value of Remco riding a Tour he probably won't win: yes, a top 5 now is worth more than 1 hour of ITT at the world's or whatever other Mickey Mouse race, as the Tour is the nec plus ultra, and winning it, even if only once, is worth more than 5 more Vueltas and 2 more Giros. His chances winning it in 2024 with a perfect preparation but without riding in 2023 are probably smaller than his chances winning it in 2024 with a 90% preparation but having experienced the Tour in 2023. So I wonder why riding it in 2023 isn't part of this 'perfect preparation'?

ps: I just want to see the kid race, and judging by his training rides on Strava, his form is quite OK.

He needs to ride the Tour. Who cares about the result? Belgium? If they want a long awaited champion, with this current crop, then he needs experience. Andiamo.

 

[VayaVayaVaya]

Since you are putting words in my mouth, i would like to ask you to put your money where your mouth is and quote me where i made such a statement regarding Roglic.

Furthermore, I need to explain the difference between having the Tour as main goal, not finish and go to the Vuelta ill prepared on one hand with having the Giro as main goal, not finish and go to the Tour ill prepared, on the other hand?

Further, you claim i am claiming his prep to be at least as good as Pogacar? Where did i claim that?

Also, Pogacar and Vingegaard are the only riders at the Tour? I was not aware.

So if these double standards you are talking about, is refering to you putting words in people 's mouths and finishing their thoughts for them, then i agree.

Meow. I'm not sure how to respond to this quote in parts, so I'll just do the bolded from top down.

1. If I misremembered some posts by some of your peers as being from you, I apologize. I remember there were many that argued that because Roglic got second on the first Vuelta ITT, a minute back from Remco, he was clearly in top form. I thought you were one of them, but my mistake if I was incorrect. I also thought you were one who thought that his crash in this Giro couldn't be an explanation for barely beating G, but, again, I sometimes get some posts mixed up between you and a select few others. Not intentional, I assure you. I am not going to read through your thousands of posts for examples, though, so I will decline the ask.
2. Please spare us all. I will also point out that Frome and Dumoulin did the Giro-Tour double and did OK. Contador and Quintana made some decent attempts as well. There's no reason he can't be close to peak form for the Tour. And as others are saying, Vingegaard could crash, get Covid, simply not reach previous heights, have a stomach bug, mist time in a split, etc. etc.
3. No, must have written that poorly. You said that Remco's form wouldn't be as good as the other top contenders, and then conceded that, Oh, well except for maybe Pogacar's. That is a big exception. Pogacar is still racing the Tour despite having terrible prep. Always tough to know, but if I had to pick, I'd rather have dropped out of the Giro after 9 days with Covid that only took me out of 5 days of training than have taken a month or two off the bike due to a broken wrist.
4. If you think that Remco can't recover from a mild Covid case (a severe Covid case would have prevented him from completing that ITT, not just knocked a few seconds off of his time) to be better than the second tier, I question your faith in Remco.
5. Nice burn.

 

[red_flanders]

There may be a concern of having to deal with a plethora of acerbic comments about how Evenepoel is not what he's made out to be if he can't match Vingegaard/Pogacar.

This is life in professional now. Why is this different for Remco than anyone else at the top of this or any sport? Or is it?