Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Berflamand]

Sounds like a big *** you to the classification sponsors.

Maybe but someone would still wear the jersey. It would just be the second person in the classification which is the same as now if a rider leads multiple classifications.

But yeah, stretching it out to all NC jerseys is probably too much but I definitely feel like the WC jersey wearer should be able to choose his/her WC jersey over any minor classification jersey (so not over the actual leader's jersey). After all that's only one person (two with TT) a year.

 

[pelotonIQ]

And how can you be so sure that Jumbo can even execute the same "modus operandi" of TDF ? This implies a couple of things and Jonas maintaining his TDF conditioning is the major factor here . Because if he's not and Roglic is not at least as good as during the Giro , which was not overly impressive anyway , then you run the risk of bumping into peak or close-to-peak-Remco and all of the tactics can go to the dustbin .

I do not believe that today will give us ALL the answers btw . The stage is difficult but i believe not difficult enough to crush the opposition and I mean that from all angles , i.e. Jonas crushing opposition or Remco / Ayuso / etc... crushing opposition .

I do believe that you cannot underestimate a guy like Remco . He has a huge motor and can compensate a lot , if not all , by virtue of this . Looks a bit like Indurain to be honest ... but more compact

Firstly the level of the QS domestiques is not that high meaning that it wouldn't require Jumbo to be on their very best to get rid of them compared to what it took them vs UAE in the tour. The fact that Remcos domestiques couldn't be there for him on stage 3 Arinsal (which isn't a difficult climb) proves that.

Who says that Vingo has to be in the same shape he beat Poga by 7:29 in TdF to be able to beat Remco? There are levels to cycling

 

[Didier_Bel]

Firstly the level of the QS domestiques is not that high meaning that it wouldn't require Jumbo to be on their very best to get rid of them compared to what it took them vs UAE in the tour. The fact that Remcos domestiques couldn't be there for him on stage 3 Arinsal (which isn't a difficult climb) proves that.

Who says that Vingo has to be in the same shape he beat Poga by 7:29 in TdF to be able to beat Remco? There are levels to cycling

We'll see how it goes but I feel that Vingo needs to be at his best in order to do what he did in TDF . You seem very confident that Vingo's below TDF level is still quite a bit higher than Remco's current level ... that again smells like "underestimating" an exceptional rider who has proven himself so many times before when others said "he couldn't" .

Let's just enjoy what is to come ;-)

 

[Lexman]

Intestinal infection doing the round in the peloton and Vervaeke and Bagioli are suffering confirmed
https://www.hln.be/sport/live-vuelt...e-dag-ploegmaats-evenepoel-gisteren~ac26c1be/

 

[Berniece]

That's really bad timing

 

[Peyroteo94]

How do you know all of this? You're assuming a lot.
Vingegaard excelled in almost all TdF TT he rode, but all of these, the last couple of years, were hilly (Combloux, Rocamadour, even the one to Laval, and he lost close to half a minute on Pogacar on that one: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2021/stage-5). He did an excellent TT in Dauphine but that one again had a lot of altitude: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/dauphine/2023/stage-4. A year later in a flat Dauphine TT he lost over a minute on Ganna: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/dauphine/2022/stage-4
In a flatter Tour TT (St. Emilion), he lost 32s to WvA: https://www.procyclingstats.com/race/tour-de-france/2021/stage-20

We are now having a flat TT, not a hilly one, and Evenepoel's credentials in flat TT's are very solid.
So claiming 'Peak Vingegaard don't lose time to Remco in a TT' is a generalisation that I feel doesn't apply to this TT.
If it were hilly like Combloux, I have a very hard time to see Evenepoel beating Vingegaard, for sure. But this is not overly technical and flat, so tailor-made for Evenepoel gaining time.

Vingegaard may surprise me and I will applaud if he stays within 10-20 seconds or squarely beats Remco, but given all of the above, that's unlikely.

Vingegaard is not close to his peak shape in this Vuelta and time will tell us in my opinion. And I had this discussion 20 years ago with Lance. Ullrich was a better time trialist but in the Tour, a peak Lance was unbeatable and by a large margin. And I see a lot of similarities between Vingegaard and Lance.

 

[Gratemans]

I see what you did there

 

[Volderke]

Vingegaard is not close to his peak shape in this Vuelta and time will tell us in my opinion. And I had this discussion 20 years ago with Lance. Ullrich was a better time trialist but in the Tour, a peak Lance was unbeatable and by a large margin. And I see a lot of similarities between Vingegaard and Lance.

When has Vingegaard smashed the competition in a flat TT with a stacked field?
When has Remco smashed the competition in a flat TT with a stacked field?

 

[Peyroteo94]

When has Vingegaard smashed the competition in a flat TT with a stacked field?
When has Remco smashed the competition in a flat TT with a stacked field?

Next year in the Tour, I'm pretty sure we will have answers. Maybe you are right, maybe not.

 

[Volderke]

That stage 5 TdF TT was pretty flat and 51kph, with Kung runner up to Pogacar. But I doubt Vingegaard will be at his best for this anyway. I think he’s banking on a big week 2-3 comeback in the mountains.

I already analysed this on this forum before, and my conclusion is that this stage 5 TdF TT (= Laval) benefitted the lighter TT-ers like Pogacar / Vingegaard and not the kind of riders like WvA, Ganna and even Kung. It's only because Kung was in such a good shape he was in the mix.

I do my analysis on what I consider 'hilly' / 'flat' on the number of vertical meters / km of TT.

Laval had 13 mtrs / kilometer.
In comparison, Rocamadour had 10.66 mtrs / kilometer (which is less than Laval...!), Combloux had 28.4 mtrs / kilometer (clearly very hilly).

The one in the Vuelta has 4,45 mtrs / kilometer, which is the equivalent of almost pan-flat.

 

[stekelegel]

Also consider that in GT time trials most contenders have prepared for the mountain stages, and some riders like Remco lose some of their weight/muscle. I have no idea if vingegard could do the opposite and gain muscle for a flat TT.
But remember the olympics where Roglic stunned every one including WVA with his gold.
Also take into account that ITT in the third week fatigue is much more a factor.

 

[Nick2413]

I already analysed this on this forum before, and my conclusion is that this stage 5 TdF TT (= Laval) benefitted the lighter TT-ers like Pogacar / Vingegaard and not the kind of riders like WvA, Ganna and even Kung. It's only because Kung was in such a good shape he was in the mix.

I do my analysis on what I consider 'hilly' / 'flat' on the number of vertical meters / km of TT.

Laval had 13 mtrs / kilometer.
In comparison, Rocamadour had 10.66 mtrs / kilometer (which is less than Laval...!), Combloux had 28.4 mtrs / kilometer (clearly very hilly).

The one in the Vuelta has 4,45 mtrs / kilometer, which is the equivalent of almost pan-flat.

Yes I analyze that way as well, but a slightly rolling mostly flat course is very different to a flat route with an actual climb added in that adds up to the same vert. This was still in the flat category imo, but yes a couple kph slower than the absolute flattest.

 

[Netserk]

I already analysed this on this forum before, and my conclusion is that this stage 5 TdF TT (= Laval) benefitted the lighter TT-ers like Pogacar / Vingegaard and not the kind of riders like WvA, Ganna and even Kung. It's only because Kung was in such a good shape he was in the mix.

I do my analysis on what I consider 'hilly' / 'flat' on the number of vertical meters / km of TT.

Laval had 13 mtrs / kilometer.
In comparison, Rocamadour had 10.66 mtrs / kilometer (which is less than Laval...!), Combloux had 28.4 mtrs / kilometer (clearly very hilly).

The one in the Vuelta has 4,45 mtrs / kilometer, which is the equivalent of almost pan-flat.

Now do Rocamadour until the last intermediate. Avg. speed above 53 km/h and with Vingegaard in the lead. Some pretty good competition.

 

[Volderke]

Yes I analyze that way as well, but a slightly rolling mostly flat course is very different to a flat route with an actual climb added in that adds up to the same vert. This was still in the flat category imo, but yes a couple kph slower than the absolute flattest.

I obviously have as little data as anyone to asses the TT of Remco vs. Vingegaard (how many will they have done face to face, both in peak shape, at the end of their career? It could be 10, but it could be less than that as well?), but my take is that a rolling TT like Laval benefits lighter riders (compared to powerhouses with higher absolute power/CdA and/or more weight) and punishes heavyier riders, while flat TT like e.g. the World's in Belgium 2021 always benefits the power/CdA top riders.

I still believe Vingegaard is imore in the light but no absolute top power/CdA category while Remco is ahead in power/CdA (not in absolute power though, that is clearly Ganna's territory). There have been discussions and people saying Vingegaard's CdA is actually very, very good (with the best), so no handicap, and if he is in peak form pushing his best power, a flat TT should thus not impede him in the slightest. I'm curious for next Tuesday, but ofcourse, there can be more factors into play if he doesn't perform well (peak shape etc.). If he (Vingegaard) destroys the competition, all discussions can stop

 

[yaco]

Think Ganna is favorite for this ITT - Pan flat and non-technical should suit him.

 

[Didinho]

Think Ganna is favorite for this ITT - Pan flat and non-technical should suit him.

Wasn’t the Giro stage 1 TT just 15km straight before the little 2km rolling climb? But I see a stronger Ganna now, he can take his rest days like today and save some for the TT. Also my favorite, but I think Remco will be close.

 

[Riek s]

Looks like remco wont have a problem starting in his WC jersey.

 

[Berniece]

Wasn’t the Giro stage 1 TT just 15km straight before the little 2km rolling climb? But I see a stronger Ganna now, he can take his rest days like today and save some for the TT. Also my favorite, but I think Remco will be close.

WC TT was also quite flat

Looks like remco wont have a problem starting in his WC jersey.

How so?

 

[Riek s]

WC TT was also quite flat


How so?

he will loose the lead in GC and youngsters today. So he wont be leading any classifications. (and i don't think Kuss/Lenny will loose all that margin before the ITT)

 

[Berniece]

he will loose the lead in GC and youngsters today. So he wont be leading any classifications. (and i don't think Kuss/Lenny will loose all that margin before the ITT)

Oh right Sorry, I thought there was a special rule that he could chose in which jersey he wanted to race or something like that.

 

[KZD]

Wasn’t the Giro stage 1 TT just 15km straight before the little 2km rolling climb? But I see a stronger Ganna now, he can take his rest days like today and save some for the TT. Also my favorite, but I think Remco will be close.

Yes, this time trial has some similarities with the Giro one but Ganna has said that he performs the worst in mid-range time trials. I think its going to be close but Remco is still my favourite.

 

[Prim]

Am I imagining things or was Remco favoring his right arm when putting on his jacket after the stage? The crash on monday might have hurt him more than he is letting on maybe.

Or he was just super tired...

 

[Andy schleck]

He defended himself quite well.

 

[Berniece]

Am I imagining things or was Remco favoring his right arm when putting on his jacket after the stage? The crash on monday might have hurt him more than he is letting on maybe.

Or he was just super tired...

It looked weird, he seemed to put on that long sleeve like I put on a sweater when I'm having a cold.

 

[Didinho]

Limit his losses. Ended much better than it looked at first. Hopefully nothing wrong and just his (only) bad day.