Teams & Riders The Remco Evenepoel is the next Eddy Merckx thread

[Logic-is-your-friend]

You assume that miraculously, Evenepoel having been at 110% on a climb can quickly switch a knob and go in full TT mode as if there wasn't a climb, as if he didn't go into the red and needs a minute to find himself back, and reel anyone back in.

It's possible a cool-headed Remco doesn't go fully into the red and allows someone like Pogacar 5 more seconds on the top just to be able to start chasing the moment he reaches the top, but Pogacar isn't a fluke in TT-ing, and especially not at the end of a hard race.

ps: all the above assumes Pog drops Remco uphill. I truly hope he can match Pog uphill in LBL in the coming years, but the current numbers / records uphill give Pog the benefit.

You think if Pogacar wants to drop Evenepoel, he himself is not going to go all out on the climb, and assume he will drop him on the flat later? Or widen the gap on the flat? lol

I'm out.

 

[topcat]

I don't know who would win Liege: Pog or Remco. And I don't think you could say one is the favourite over the other.

 

[Berniece]

I don’t understand the discussion, Pogacar didn’t show in Liege that he would be able to drop Evenepoel at all

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

I don't know who would win Liege: Pog or Remco. And I don't think you could say one is the favourite over the other.

Pog would be the favorite because he is still faster at the line. But i doubt either would permanently drop the other. Or better, i doubt Evenepoel would drop Pogacar on the climbs, and i doubt Pogacar would drop Evenepoel hard enough so that he can't come back.

 

[Froome]

I don’t understand the discussion, Pogacar didn’t show in Liege that he would be able to drop Evenepoel at all

I also don’t think Pogacar would drop Evenepoel or Roglic on LBL on sunday, and i don’t think Pogacar is much more stronger than the past years, in the sense he can get big gaps against his opponents.

Of course Pogacar is pushing more watts this year, compared to last year, but everybody in the peloton is pushing more watts, year after year, so all gets balanced.

The scenario they were talking about is if after some climb, like for example cote de la redoute, where Pogacar gets 5/10 s on Evenepoel, if more later in the flat section, Evenepoel can close the gap.
Well, in my opinion, i don’t think he could, and i would think the same if it's vice versa, because when you are dropped, it means you are in the red, and the rider who get's in front, is more fresher. It's a different scenario from a ITT where naturally, Evenepoel will beat Pogacar.

 

[topcat]

Pog would be the favorite because he is still faster at the line. But i doubt either would permanently drop the other. Or better, i doubt Evenepoel would drop Pogacar on the climbs, and i doubt Pogacar would drop Evenepoel hard enough so that he can't come back.

I think there would be separation-I just don't know which way. Remco would know he would lose the sprint, so he'd have to attack. Hopefully, we'll get the h2h next year.

 

[Volderke]

You think if Pogacar wants to drop Evenepoel, he himself is not going to go all out on the climb, and assume he will drop him on the flat later? Or widen the gap on the flat? lol

I'm out.

Good you're out, because we agree to disagree. It has been shown countless of times that TT talents lose their TT ability once they get dropped, and I honestly don't think Remco is an exception.

I don’t understand the discussion, Pogacar didn’t show in Liege that he would be able to drop Evenepoel at all

Technically, Pog showed (by the data we have) he would have dropped the best effort Evenepoel (training though) by 10 seconds, but ofcourse that isn't a racing situation. The question is if Remco would always do better in a race after 220K? All we know is Pog did a very sharp ascend of Redoute in the race.

But even if he didn't drop Remco on Redoute, we have also seen that Pog can work over riders on his terrain, i.e. hilly, like the last 30K of LBL. Remco can work over many riders on hilly terrain but Pog has the edge on the uphills over Evenepoel, so it's more likely for Pog to try and work Evenepoel over, than the other way around.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Apparently some think that Evenepoel is simply a TT rider with no pedigree for long solo efforts at the end of hard races, lol.

Well, in my opinion, i don’t think he could, and i would think the same if it's vice versa, because when you are dropped, it means you are in the red, and the rider who get's in front, is more fresher. It's a different scenario from a ITT where naturally, Evenepoel will beat Pogacar.

If Evenepoel drops Pogacar on La Redoute or Roche aux Faucons, indeed, it would be race over and Pogacar is not catching Evenepoel on the flat. The other way around is a completely different matter. But the chance that Pogacar drops Evenepoel is simply larger than Evenepoel dropping Pogacar on LR or RaF. So the most likely outcome imho is that they have to sprint for it.

 

[Volderke]

Apparently some think that Evenepoel is simply a TT rider with no pedigree for long solo efforts at the end of hard races, lol.


If Evenepoel drops Pogacar on La Redoute or Roche aux Faucons, indeed, it would be race over and Pogacar is not catching Evenepoel on the flat. The other way around is a completely different matter. But the chance that Pogacar drops Evenepoel is simply larger than Evenepoel dropping Pogacar on LR or RaF. So the most likely outcome imho is that they have to sprint for it.

Glad you see the light!

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Glad you see the light!

What are you talking about? Where have i ever said anything different? OMG. I guess you didn't read the previous sentence.

 

[Berflamand]

Good you're out, because we agree to disagree. It has been shown countless of times that TT talents lose their TT ability once they get dropped, and I honestly don't think Remco is an exception.

Haven't there been editions (or at least one edition) of Il Lombardia where Remco got dropped when there were still like 40+ riders in the peloton only for him to TT his way back into the top 10 by the end?

And that's a subpar Remco, not a Remco in top form.

 

[QueenStagiaire]

I also don’t think Pogacar would drop Evenepoel or Roglic on LBL on sunday,

Roglic doesn‘t have a good record in these 250k races (especially the last few kms) besides the one Covid edition of LBL where Alaphilippe handed him the win. Pogačar should drop him if he‘s not completely overrated

 

[Volderke]

Haven't there been editions (or at least one edition) of Il Lombardia where Remco got dropped when there were still like 40+ riders in the peloton only for him to TT his way back into the top 10 by the end?

And that's a subpar Remco, not a Remco in top form.

Was there constant pressure from that 40+ group of riders WRT impeding dropped riders catching up? Makes a big difference. In a 1 vs. 1 the leader won't sit up and wait.

 

[Berflamand]

Was there constant pressure from that 40+ group of riders WRT impeding dropped riders catching up? Makes a big difference. In a 1 vs. 1 the leader won't sit up and wait.

I'm not commenting on the hypothetical Pog vs Remco scenario in LBL because I think there are simply too many variables to make any definitive claim about what could happen.

I was specifically disputing this claim:

It has been shown countless of times that TT talents lose their TT ability once they get dropped, and I honestly don't think Remco is an exception.

I think there have been plenty of moments where Remco took time back or at least limited his losses on the flat after being dropped on a climb. Out of the top of my head I'm thinking about Itzulia last year where he got dropped several times on a climb but fought his way back only to drop again on the last climb. Or the Brabantse Pijl where he repeatedly got dropped on the Hertstraat but closed the gap afterwards every time.

In short, I really do think Remco might be an exception to the rule you're stating.

 

[Netserk]

If I'm not mistaken, the only time Evenepoel has won after being dropped was his first San Sebastian.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If I'm not mistaken, the only time Evenepoel has won after being dropped was his first San Sebastian.

This is not what is being discussed.

 

[Netserk]

This is not what is being discussed.

If he could win Liège against Pogi after being dropped?

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

If he could win Liège against Pogi after being dropped?

No. Whether he could come back on the flat, after being dropped by only a small margin on LR or RaF.

 

[Salvarani]

Very few times has a rider been able to turn it around after being dropped. Especially in a crucial part of a big race like LBL.

I doubt anyone, no matter who they are, can close a gap of lets 15-20 seconds after RAF unless a crash or mechanical happens to the guy in front. They completely fade or something.

In this particular race there is a descent and very few KMs to work with after the final climb.

Like seen by Bardet this edition, he dropped the other guys at roughly the spot yall are talking about and was able to hold off a whole group in the end.

20 seconds was about what Pog had on the end of LR and he opened up that fairly quickly to a minute.

 

[kingjr]

I agree with Logic that if anyone of the two is going to get dropped it's Evenepoel, but if the gap is only 10–15 seconds, he has a good chance of coming back. A lot depends on whether he tries to do a Carapaz or just rides his own pace, basically ignoring what Pogacar does. Pogacar would almost certainly still win the sprint in any case, but there would be some tension at least.

 

[Logic-is-your-friend]

Getting dropped 20s on for instance La Redoute is not what i would describe as a small gap, so this is not the scenario that was being discussed.

 

[Oldermanish]

Remco was dictating the pace for the overwhelming majority of that stage

You only have to watch whatever happens when Remco hit a steep ramp. He was looking at his computer and, if Jorgenson came alongside he did what he could to regain control of the tempo. He never made an accelaration that Mateo couldn't control without leaving his saddle. They had words on a couple of occasions. It looked pretty much like Remco knew he couldn't win the overall and decided to assist in exchange for the stage victory.

 

[Oldermanish]

If Evenepoel doesn't get dropped on La Redoute, the only chance of Pogacar dropping him, would be on the steep section of RaF. If you think anything else, you clearly have not been paying attention the past 5 years. Not only that, he would have to drop him hard, or Evenepoel would close the gap on the flatter sections.
And there is also quite the difference between knowing the route as a spectator, and having it as your training ground. Especially since Evenepoel had not ridden it before, not even raced in France before.

But if you want to compare Evenepoel in PN, which anyone could see was not him in peak shape, to Pogacar in LBL, then that is your prerogative.

Thanks for considering my observations and opinion.
As for Evenepoel not knowing the course: he's a pro now and a big boy. You ride two laps and you'd better know the course and your DS can have intel on every key corner. Not an excuse.
That said; he was not letting Mateo out of his sight and worked to maintain contact on some descents because of that local familiarity.

 

[Krzysztof_O]

Pog would be the favorite because he is still faster at the line. But i doubt either would permanently drop the other. Or better, i doubt Evenepoel would drop Pogacar on the climbs, and i doubt Pogacar would drop Evenepoel hard enough so that he can't come back.

Agreed. Top-form Remco could probably be up there with Pog. Even losing small time on climbs could be compensasted by his bullet-man abilities. Both finishing together is a plausible scenario (with Pog likely winning the sprint).

OTOH I don't think anybody else could match them. I'm not that confident in Roglic abilities during long classics (despite him winning the race once).

 

[peterfin]

Remco is back on Strava