Think Evenepoel looks a bit thinner this time round but will wait for the weight analysis from Belgian experts.
- Jan 8, 2020
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Remco shall be good at Liege, but he will not be at his best to be competitive with Pogacar, unless Pogacar crashes in PR or he is too tired.
- Sep 12, 2022
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If MVDP can be in the same league when he’s at his best, I don’t know why Evenepoel wouldn’t be when he’s at his best. Question remains what level Evenepoel will be riding at.
- Mar 20, 2022
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He looks very good! Maybe he can give us a good show in the next 2 weeks.Think Evenepoel looks a bit thinner this time round but will wait for the weight analysis from Belgian experts.
- Jun 7, 2011
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Well, he couldn't beat Van der Poel in Milan San Remo, heck, he couldn't even get rid of Ganna. Do you consider them also out of Evenepoel's league? During Merckx's career, there was nobody in his league or even close. Yet Merckx lost more races than he won. Maybe everybody should just retire as long as Pogacar is racing because nobody is supposedly in his league, so apparently we now have to pretend, according some trolls, that there is no scenario where Evenepoel can beat Pogacar even though he already beat Pogacar.
Because we shouldn't pretend he can compete with Pogacar, because he simply can't right? Too bad him, Van der Poel, Vingegaard and some others didn't get the memo because they have all beaten Pogacar. But...that's impossible. I'm so confused.
Ganna could join Pogi and Mathieu because they didn't race hard enough when Pogi couldn't drop Mathieu. I don't know, maybe Pogi has better win ratio than Merckx.
- Jul 7, 2013
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I seems I managed to resurrect Remco's thread so we'll have a proper Remco vs Pogacar rivalry on the forum (posts count).
- Sep 12, 2022
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Let’s discuss for 100 pages if Evenepoel is going to ride the Vuelta
It seems like people are more interested in the next Eddy Merckx than the goat.
No, Van der Poel, Vingegaard and Ganna are not in Pogacar's league.
If everybody starts fit, in form, no accidents:
Sanremo: Topfavorites Van der Poel and Pogacar, but others can win. Despite Pogacar being winless, he has to be a favorite every year.
Flanders: Topfavorites Van der Poel and Pogacar, with Van Aert, Pedersen as outsiders
Roubaix: Topfavorite Van der Poel, with Pogacar at his debut as big danger
Liège: Only Pogacar and Remco can win. (Unless something changed in the last year)
Tour: Only Pogacar and Vingegaard can win.
WC: Rwanda seems perfect for Pogacar
Lombardia: Pogacar clear main favorite
That's what sets Pogacar apart, he is one of the, if not the favorite in every race. Does that mean he can't be beaten? No. He could end up winning none of these races. But unlike the others he can compete for the win everywhere. And for the moment he does win. Different league.
If everybody starts fit, in form, no accidents:
Sanremo: Topfavorites Van der Poel and Pogacar, but others can win. Despite Pogacar being winless, he has to be a favorite every year.
Flanders: Topfavorites Van der Poel and Pogacar, with Van Aert, Pedersen as outsiders
Roubaix: Topfavorite Van der Poel, with Pogacar at his debut as big danger
Liège: Only Pogacar and Remco can win. (Unless something changed in the last year)
Tour: Only Pogacar and Vingegaard can win.
WC: Rwanda seems perfect for Pogacar
Lombardia: Pogacar clear main favorite
That's what sets Pogacar apart, he is one of the, if not the favorite in every race. Does that mean he can't be beaten? No. He could end up winning none of these races. But unlike the others he can compete for the win everywhere. And for the moment he does win. Different league.
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Pogacar is indeed able to win in all those terrains, but saying someone is in his league was more to the point of specific races, not every race.
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I do wonder how long current riders peak can last. Will they lhave shorter or longer careers. cause of better training/nutrition vs destroying their bodies even more than previously to reach their peaks.
We're fully aware that you're confused. It comes from your assumption that Remco is the best, and that when everything is equal he wins. Once you manage to get rid of this assumption, your confusion should disappear.
Btw, Remco has beaten Pogacar. Not according to the standards you apply when Pogacar beats Remco. WC 24, Lombardia 24 you dismiss because of the Olympics. But they apply. By "casually" winning the Olympics Remco showed that he had overcome the injuries from his crash. And it's not like Remco was absolutely chanceless in those races, didn't perform. No, second in Lombardia, yes, he casually beat everybody in Lombardia, except Pogacar. Those minutes to Pogacar then don't count because of the shorter prep because of the Olympics? Laughable. TRy it the other way around, Remco wins the WC and Lombardia the Pogacar-way. Pogacar fanboys claim that it doesn't count as both in topform because Pogacar had a first peak from Sanremo to the end of the Giro, then another one at the Tour, so you can't expect him to be at the same level late in the season. Yes, you would dismiss that, rightly so. But if it's Remco, you claim that well, the casual Olympics man, WC and Lombardia are not representative. Of course you're confused...
Can Remco beat Pogacar? Yes. Where? Strade Bianche and Lombardia it would seem no, judging from the way Pogacar rides there. Sanremo, the Poggio downhill somehow seems enough reason to dismiss Remco (otherwise I'd say if he rides it, could be, especially if from now on Pogacar keeps attacking from the Cipressa) Flanders, Remco doesn't like cobbles, IMO that race though should fit him, on paper, but well, he will have to ride it at some point, this year clearly not possible. So Liège: I'd say yes, Pogacar starts as favorite, Remco the only one that has a decent chance. 70-30? Something like that. The rest really seems to have a combined 1% chance to beat those 2. Can change, maybe Grégoire, Healy make a step up, maybe Van Aert, Van der Poel manage to hang on and win a sprint for the win (don't think they can, but who knows) Tour? Not really, Vingegaard is closer, IMO they start this year with similar chances, for me a Pogacar win there is not a foregone conclusion, Vingegaard can beat him. Remco? No, don't see him winning the Tour in 25. So at this point Remco simply is not in the same league as Pogacar, nobody is. Ah, WC, there Remco's chances increase, even if the Rwanda course seems perfect for Pogacar, but having Slovenia instead of UAE supporting him, makes it harder for Pogacar to control everything.
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A very reasonable post. Well done! If Pogacar was from Belgium, Rwanda 2025 would be a walk in the park for him.
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- Sep 12, 2022
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He had overcome his injuries, but he could've performed even better. Not saying Remco can challenge Pogacar in a GT, just saying that Evenepoel could perform better with a preparation that wasn't disturbed due to a crash and then trying to get ready more quickly for TDF.
It's not just Olympics. He was sick after the Olympics too.
- Jul 31, 2024
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I don't think WC and Lomabrdia are perfect barometers. Remco after Olympics clealry was dealing with decompression. Sure his shape wasn't bad (winning the TT, getting 5th at WC, 2nd at Lombardi) but it was not at the same level as it was during TdF and olympics either. And Remco came back from Basque crash and hurried into shape for those 2 events.
Now Remco unfortunately has a crashing tendency. So i'm not sure if we will ever see a perfectly prepped Remco versus a perfectly prepped Pogacar. But I do believe the difference in 1 day races would be closer than it was last year. I still give the edge to Pogacar. 70-30 seems like a solid perspective. But Evenepoel would stand a chance.
GT wise. Well it was 9 minutes last time around against what i believe was/is prime Pogacar. I think Evenepoel can take 4 minutes off that with perfect prep. Now that leaves 5 minutes that Evenepoel needs to find somewhere. And those 5 minutes will be tough to find. Much will depend on how much longer Pogacar (&Evenepoel) can maintain their current form.
Now Remco unfortunately has a crashing tendency. So i'm not sure if we will ever see a perfectly prepped Remco versus a perfectly prepped Pogacar. But I do believe the difference in 1 day races would be closer than it was last year. I still give the edge to Pogacar. 70-30 seems like a solid perspective. But Evenepoel would stand a chance.
GT wise. Well it was 9 minutes last time around against what i believe was/is prime Pogacar. I think Evenepoel can take 4 minutes off that with perfect prep. Now that leaves 5 minutes that Evenepoel needs to find somewhere. And those 5 minutes will be tough to find. Much will depend on how much longer Pogacar (&Evenepoel) can maintain their current form.
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I'm really no believer in blaming bad preperation and saying he'd do much better when a rider does career best performances, especially in terms of relative result and especially when he was fit enough to race the Dauphine which started 4 weeks before the Tour de France.
I don't think the weaker training base helps especially with the decompression after, but we've seen riders with more rushed preperations drop career best numbers before. His climbing level relative to the rest of the field seemed pretty in line with his best performances in the 2022 Vuelta or 2023 Catalunya.
I also just think he probably fluctuates weight the most of the top GC riders, which is why he struggles to do 2 GT GCs in a season and why he hasn't won any of the top one week races.
I don't think the weaker training base helps especially with the decompression after, but we've seen riders with more rushed preperations drop career best numbers before. His climbing level relative to the rest of the field seemed pretty in line with his best performances in the 2022 Vuelta or 2023 Catalunya.
I also just think he probably fluctuates weight the most of the top GC riders, which is why he struggles to do 2 GT GCs in a season and why he hasn't won any of the top one week races.
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I agree with most of your post but in case of Evenepoel there are many more factors to include besides how his preparation went. His age, improved training methods, weight, etc. all have an influence on his performance.
You specifically mention him being fit enough to race Dauphine, but did you feel he was really fit? In the last 3 stages he lost 2min30s to the likes of Ciccone, Gee, De Plus, and Vlasov. All riders he should have no problem with dropping.
Just to say I do think he can reduce the gap in GT's to Pogacar/Vingegaard with a better preparation. Mostly in the last week of the GT, because his base should be higher when he isn't rushed, so he won't be as fatigued, and not lose more than a minute to Pogacar in an ITT.
- Feb 20, 2012
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Fit, yes. Great shape, no. But it's a level that shouldn't stop him from being in peak shape by the 3rd week of the Tour, especially if you still need to shed some weight and if you suffer a minor illness in those mountain stages.
It's not the modern pattern for GC peaking, it's so mid 90's-2000s actually. Also not too dissimilar from what Pogacar did in the 2020 Dauphine.
- Jul 8, 2017
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Well, the gap to Vingegaard is supposed to increase solely based on preparation as Vingegaard's was even more rushed.
As for Pogacar, it was reported that he had Covid before the Tour and he still had the Giro, which while it was a walk in the park, probably isn't the perfect Tour preparation.
All things considered, all of them can be better based on preparation, Pogacar the least probably.
As for natural progression.. that's something we won't know before the Tour.
- Sep 12, 2022
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I doubt the Giro had any impact. Pogacar apparently can be great during the whole year, ride basically every race he wants and never be fatigued so I don't think this had an influence on him. Covid did probably.
- Dec 22, 2019
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I think we can simplify this to who comes closest to Pogacar per race type:
- Cobbled/slightly hilly classics: MVDP
- (Real) Hilly classics: Remco
- Stage Races: Vingegaard
Pogi has been exhausted a few times, for example after his two latest TdF's.
Both physically and mentally. Hence, why I am hesitant or dont think he should do the Vuelta after doing the classics. Potentially also Dauphine before Tour.
Rest after Tour and go for Worlds + Lombardia.
Do Vuelta another year.
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